Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[DixieBlizzard]

Exactly. It's been warmer than last winter so far. I remember last year you were one of the ones that ended up below average last winter. Nearly everyone is above average so far this winter and record warmth is on the way for this weekend.

 

Pure hyperbole. The most it is getting here is the mid-60's but that's not record warmth, at least not here.

[metalicwx366]

Pure hyperbole. The most it is getting here is the mid-60's but that's not record warmth, at least not here.

NWS Raleigh.

RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 21ST

AND 22ND OF DECEMBER.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP OFF THE SE COAST FRI-SUN. THIS WILL

BLOCK THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT

PER THE FAVORED AND SLOWER EC GUIDANCE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE CHANCE

OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

UNTIL THEN... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH

TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH

THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A SW BREEZE. FRIDAY

HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH 70 AND EVEN HIT 70 IN THE SANDHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON MOST AREAS. THE

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR

INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IF THIS OCCURS... NEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS

WOULD BE LIKELY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY THING THAT MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURES THIS

WEEKEND WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOW CLOUDINESS IN THE S-SW FLOW

PATTERN. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE NW PIEDMONT WOULD BE THE

MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY

SUNDAY. HOWEVER... THE COOLEST GUIDANCE STILL GIVES LOWER 70S AT

GREENSBORO AND MID 70S IN RALEIGH SUNDAY... WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT AT

THE RECORD DAILY RECORDS OF 71 AND 75.

[metalicwx366]

Pure hyperbole. The most it is getting here is the mid-60's but that's not record warmth, at least not here.

According to Wunderground, the record high for Saturday and Sunday is 69 and 68 both set in 2011. Weatherbug Elite, Weather.com and Wunderground all show your temps for Saturday and Sunday to be 67 and 68.

[DaculaWeather]

So far for me and the records from my weather station:

 

December

2013 - 46.8 so far

2012 - 47.9

2011 - 48.1

2010 - 35.5

2009 - 39.8

2008 - 48.0

 

No torch right now and hasn't been. 

 

Even this November was the coldest since I've kept records here. 

 

November

2013 - 47.6 

2012 - 49.6

2011 - 52.2

2010 - 51.1

2009 - 52.3

2008 - 49.9

 

I know all of this differs depending on where you're located, but I couldn't be further from a torch right now. 

[Bevo]

Exactly. It's been warmer than last winter so far. I remember last year you were one of the ones that ended up below average last winter. Nearly everyone is above average so far this winter and record warmth is on the way for this weekend.

 

Even now though, I am only a couple of degrees above.  I'm just about to surpass more nights in the 20's than the last two winters combined (since mid November).  Think about that.  There is nothing similar between where we are now and the last two winters.  I'm just shy of having more daytime highs in the 40's than all of the 2012 winter.  There's no question that the pattern is different from the last two miserable examples.

 

Pure hyperbole. The most it is getting here is the mid-60's but that's not record warmth, at least not here.

 

Exaggeration seems to be a forum staple.  I doubt I'll be breaking any records.  The poor indices argument has been a weak one till now.  I am not saying it will stay that way though.  Once we do start to experience the progged warm ups on a consistent basis, I'll scream about the indices with everyone else.  And it very well *could  happen.

[franklin NCwx]

NWS Raleigh.

RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 21ST

AND 22ND OF DECEMBER.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP OFF THE SE COAST FRI-SUN. THIS WILL

BLOCK THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT

PER THE FAVORED AND SLOWER EC GUIDANCE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE CHANCE

OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

UNTIL THEN... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH

TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH

THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A SW BREEZE. FRIDAY

HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH 70 AND EVEN HIT 70 IN THE SANDHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON MOST AREAS. THE

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR

INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IF THIS OCCURS... NEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS

WOULD BE LIKELY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY THING THAT MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURES THIS

WEEKEND WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOW CLOUDINESS IN THE S-SW FLOW

PATTERN. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE NW PIEDMONT WOULD BE THE

MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY

SUNDAY. HOWEVER... THE COOLEST GUIDANCE STILL GIVES LOWER 70S AT

GREENSBORO AND MID 70S IN RALEIGH SUNDAY... WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT AT

THE RECORD DAILY RECORDS OF 71 AND 75.

You do know that he lives in nw GA right?

[Bevo]

So far for me and the records from my weather station:

 

2013 - 46.8 so far

2012 - 47.9

2011 - 48.1

2010 - 35.5

2009 - 39.8

2008 - 48.0

 

No torch right now and hasn't been. 

 

Even this November was the coldest since I've kept records here. 

2013 - 47.6 

2012 - 49.6

2011 - 52.2

2010 - 51.1

2009 - 52.3

2008 - 49.9

 

I know all of this differs depending on where you're located, but I couldn't be further from a torch right now. 

 

This is a great example of why you can't generalize the SE as a whole.  And also why keeping records is valuable when arguing against NOAA maps.

[metalicwx366]

So far for me and the records from my weather station:

December

2013 - 46.8 so far

2012 - 47.9

2011 - 48.1

2010 - 35.5

2009 - 39.8

2008 - 48.0

No torch right now and hasn't been.

Even this November was the coldest since I've kept records here.

November

2013 - 47.6

2012 - 49.6

2011 - 52.2

2010 - 51.1

2009 - 52.3

2008 - 49.9

I know all of this differs depending on where you're located, but I couldn't be further from a torch right now.

Damn look at 2009 and 2010 for December lol. It almost looked like there could be a correlation between warm Novembers in your area and cold December, but 2011 ruined that.

[metalicwx366]

Even now though, I am only a couple of degrees above. I'm just about to surpass more nights in the 20's than the last two winters combined (since mid November). Think about that. There is nothing similar between where we are now and the last two winters. I'm just shy of having more daytime highs in the 40's than all of the 2012 winter. There's no question that the pattern is different from the last two miserable examples.

Exaggeration seems to be a forum staple. I doubt I'll be breaking any records. The poor indices argument has been a weak one till now. I am not saying it will stay that way though. Once we do start to experience the progged warm ups on a consistent basis, I'll scream about the indices with everyone else. And it very well *could happen.

That because last year we were cold nearly all of November, and the opposite in December, but this winter we have had more intense outbreaks of cold and warm weather. Charlotte is a good example of this. They set the record low in November for the coldest temperature that early, and this December broke a record high minimum.

[metalicwx366]

You do know that he lives in nw GA right?

Check out the next post after that one. I was just posting that to show I wasn't exaggerating.

[Brick Tamland]

I also think you need to look at the number of days above normal versus normal and below normal, not just the average temp. It might be really above normal for one week, but the rest of the month could be normal or slightly below. But that one week of the extreme above normal temps is going to skew the average. I think the number of days at normal or below normal is just as important when you look at the pattern as a whole.

[Isopycnic]

I also think you need to look at the number of days above normal versus normal and below normal, not just the average temp. It might be really above normal for one week, but the rest of the month could be normal or slightly below. But that one week of the extreme above normal temps is going to skew the average. I think the number of days at normal or below normal is just as important when you look at the pattern as a whole.

No.

[Bsudweather]

I don't get all the rant, people saying this and that "so far this winter" it's not even winter yet it's still fall and peoples already writing it off?!!! Everybody knows or should know that winter weather in the SE outside of the mountains will hardly every see any winter weather before jan-feb! If you do just consider it a bonus!

[tarheelwx]

Also, please keep in mind that two completely different patterns can yield basically the same exact overall weather in a given location or region.  Just because the pattern is different is not an argument to say the weather isn't just like or similar to last year.  TW

[BullCityWx]

0Z MEX Mos is really warm across most of the state for Sunday: 

Charlotte: 73

Greensboro: 74

Raleigh: 78(!)

Fayetteville: 77

Wilmington: 76

Boone: 64(which is more impressive than raleigh's 78)

Asheville: 68

[BullCityWx]

As far as positive departures go, looks like we'll have at least 2 days at +10 and one day at 20-25+.

[BullCityWx]

A couple of climate notes for KCLT while i'm at it: 

The coldest high so far this month was 46. There's been three days with highs in the 40's. 

The warmest high so far this month was 77. There's been two days with highs in the 70's. 

 

As of yesterday, KCLT stands at 46.9 for the month, 3.1º above average. 

[Poimen]

Maybe a glimmer of hope, but the GFS appears to be a little more "blocky" around Greenland days 7-10 and perhaps beyond.

[Jon]

Since the 11th when I posted this image with the Euro control saying it was trying to dislodge some positive heights from the Scandinavian ridge and build them over greenland. I've noticed trends in current runs showing this happening earlier.

 

 

In both the Euro Op, Euro EPS, Euro EPS control and GFS doing this sooner than depicted on the control where I originally took notice, a lot sooner. On the control I saw it happening on the 26th (day 15 on that run), on today's runs I see it happening inside 100 hrs at 96hr on the Euro EPS & control, and 84hrs on the GFS.

 

Another thing I noticed in previous runs was that this little dislodged anomaly of positive heights in northern Greenland was being absorbed by the heights over Asia, thus staying negative over greenland. That's no longer happening on any runs and it's holding it's own. Also on some runs the Asian ridge is dislodging some positive heights over the arctic.

 

Here's the 5-day mean Day 4-Day 9 so clearly heights are building in said areas.

 

 

What I'm wondering is:

1) Could this height build over greenland and lead to a more neutral or -NAO?

2) Could the "mega low" being talked about help build the positive heights and push them south of greenland for our west-based -NAO?

3) Could it help build heights in general and lean toward a -AO?

[franklin NCwx]

Jon, the "mega low" being talked about has been over Iceland called an Icelandic low. It has pumped the  Scandinavian ridge leading to a southeast ridge, It also helps to pull a trough on the backside of the low into Greenland. As this feature finally moves east into Europe the Scandinavian ridge will weaken and it should allow higher heights to build into Greenland. Also, The big cutter this weekend might become a future 50/50. We have not had too many true cutters this winter. 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, 12Z GFS doesn't look bad toward the end of the month/next weekend.  It's getting out there but the west coast ridge placement eastern trough is nice, plus some higher heights building over greenland.  Hope it holds.  Think that shows a split flow too, active STJ if I'm not mistaken. 

 

[nchighcountrywx]

From Mike Dross at Wright-Weather

[NCSNOW]

0Z MEX Mos is really warm across most of the state for Sunday: 

Charlotte: 73

Greensboro: 74

Raleigh: 78(!)

Fayetteville: 77

Wilmington: 76

Boone: 64(which is more impressive than raleigh's 78)

Asheville: 68

I'll take the under at GSO with clouds and incoming rain no way we break 70.

[Shawn]

On the climo/records side of things.. it was like 72 degrees here in November.. less than 8 hours later it snowed in KCAE this year.  This Winter could be slowly trying to head in a favorable direction depending on what this storm does in Europe.  Either way, if the storm is as strong as modeled I believe it will change the weather for everyone at least for a bit.

[franklin NCwx]

Just a little difference between the CMC and the GFS for our Christmas Eve weather. Looks like it has more to do with the gfs phasing the weekend storm sooner than the CMC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BullCityWx]

On the climo/records side of things.. it was like 72 degrees here in November.. less than 8 hours later it snowed in KCAE this year.  This Winter could be slowly trying to head in a favorable direction depending on what this storm does in Europe.  Either way, if the storm is as strong as modeled I believe it will change the weather for everyone at least for a bit.

 

That's definitely what I have an eye on. Storms that strong almost always have an affect on the weather pattern. Look at that typhoon earlier this fall. 

[jburns]

OK it once again seems to be time for some old man's logic.  I'm tired of reading arguments from otherwise smart people over whether the pattern has changed since last year. Why am I tired you ask?(thanks for caring)   I am tired of it, because most of the time it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. WE LIVE IN THE SOUTHEAST!!   Over my fairly long life I have identified at least 76,856 variations of winter weather patterns in our area.  Want to know how many of those patterns resulted in snow?   Seven.

 

Damn kids.

[El Kabong]

OK it once again seems to be time for some old man's logic.  I'm tired of reading arguments from otherwise smart people over whether the pattern has changed since last year. Why am I tired you ask?(thanks for caring)   I am tired of it, because most of the time it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. WE LIVE IN THE SOUTHEAST!!   Over my fairly long life I have identified at least 76,856 variations of winter weather patterns in our area.  Want to know how many of those patterns resulted in snow?   Seven.

 

Damn kids.

Great reminder, Mr. Burns!  The ingredients necessary to produce frozen precip in these parts don't come along very often.  We often get the cake mix and the eggs in the same bowl, but it sure is hard to find the butter!  I believe Larry's stats regarding the amount of precip that actually falls in the frozen form is a humbling reminder that winter storms are definitely the exception, not the norm.  A cold rain is far more common than a cold snow!  Outside of the mountains, one good chance per winter season is often the best most of us can hope for...so when the models continue to show cold and dry, or mild and wet, I would say it's a typical winter in the Southeast.

[buckeyefan1]

wth is going on in here  I understand there isn't much to discuss at the moment, but this back and forth crap has to stop. 

 

Keep the discussion on track   

[DaculaWeather]

OK it once again seems to be time for some old man's logic.  I'm tired of reading arguments from otherwise smart people over whether the pattern has changed since last year. Why am I tired you ask?(thanks for caring)   I am tired of it, because most of the time it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. WE LIVE IN THE SOUTHEAST!!   Over my fairly long life I have identified at least 76,856 variations of winter weather patterns in our area.  Want to know how many of those patterns resulted in snow?   Seven.

 

Damn kids.

Burns, I'm with you. 58 years old here and have seen more warm winters here in the SE than I care to see.