Heisy Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 To be fair ncweather, thats not a +PNA on the map you're posting, its a strong -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 wow. convective snow showing up for mby. the ice on the 9th is a bad thing though for sure. it'll all change though: these are liquid equivilants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 To be fair ncweather, thats not a +PNA on the map you're posting, its a strong -PNA. My bad. Still not completely woke up yet and not enough caffeine intake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 wow. convective snow showing up for mby. the ice on the 9th is a bad thing though for sure. it'll all change though: these are liquid equivilants. Really like that chart, do you have a link for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Really like that chart, do you have a link for that? I generate them at my place with a custom script. What is your lon/latitude for your house, and ill generate one for ya. You can get it for you back yard from the following site: http://stevemorse.org/jcal/latlon.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I generate them at my place with a custom script. What is your lon/latitude for your house, and ill generate one for ya. You can get it for you back yard from the following site: http://stevemorse.org/jcal/latlon.php Thanks, I sure do appreciate it. 35.6831° N, 82.0058° W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 From my perspective (upper south), a small southeast ridge can be a good thing. I'd say sometimes its the straw that stirs the drink. Must have good cold to work with though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Thanks, I sure do appreciate it. Hell, the generated map for those coordinates looks the exact same. I may have a grid issue (since I let the script determine the closest grid to the lat/lon coordinants). Wondering if it's selecting the same grid for your area as an error. I'll work with it later on. Sorry about that. My area defaults to -81.5 LON and 34N. Depending on where the grids are... it might not be an error even.. Ill try to run atlanta. yes, atlantas map looks much different than the lexington one. so the grid is the same for both of us. maybe i can try the lon lat for the biggest city to ya. you can also check out the site: http://coolwx.com If a location isn't close to you there, I can ask Robert Hart to add your area to his station list. also, can you go back to that original lon/lat site you used.. and give me the # from google under the first column? Not the ones that have the degree symbols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Hell, the generated map for those coordinates looks the exact same. I may have a grid issue (since I let the script determine the closest grid to the lat/lon coordinants). Wondering if it's selecting the same grid for your area as an error. I'll work with it later on. Sorry about that. My area defaults to -81.5 LON and 34N. Depending on where the grids are... it might not be an error even.. Ill try to run atlanta. That's no problem, I just really liked the look of the graph, really easy to read. Thanks for your time. Enjoy Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That's no problem, I just really liked the look of the graph, really easy to read. Thanks for your time. Enjoy Thanksgiving! I was able to obtain the correct lon/lat using State Street in Marion, NC: that map/area is supposed to say McDowell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I was able to obtain the correct lon/lat using State Street in Marion, NC: Awesome, I appreciate it! Thanks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Awesome, I appreciate it! Thanks again Np. The top should say "McDowell" not Marion btw. =P Anyone else or too far from the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Euro shows a cutter for next weekend. Makes sense given the upper air pattern, not sure if there was any cad or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Euro shows a cutter for next weekend. Makes sense given the upper air pattern, not sure if there was any cad or not. The maps I'm using show a system trying to organize at the end/mouisture in the SE.. and one map shows 32F close by the precip at the lower TN border.. but it doesn't match up with the 500mb maps.. or something.. there's a 1034 high overhead.. during this.. but 850s are super warm.. not sure wth im looking at. Edit: I see that 35/32F set of lines is 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I'd normally post pictures, but since I am driving to Thanksgiving dinner I can't. Anyone willing to oblige? I just want some eye candy for Tgiving. TIA Keeping in mind that this is very likely a major fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That's from the first system, right? How about the second system? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That's from the first system, right? How about the second system? TW This is from the 12Z run earlier today, a couple days beyond the map above. But, this is really getting out there in fantasy land: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Can we assume ice on the south side of each of these storms? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Can we assume ice on the south side of each of these storms? TW The safe assumption would be to that the GFS is too suppressed with these systems and that come verification, there will be a nice rain for most, unfortunately. Parts of TN and the mountains may do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 18z GFS keeps our long range chances. December is sure looking interesting. I'm not a fan of screaming ice or precip type this far out for a particular area, but the potential exists. Wish we could skip about 1 week of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I still don't trust the bleeding cold air look. It just has a very hard time getting over the apps. If an arctic high sits in the plains, TX and TN may do good in the wintry precip area. If it can settle in to the Great Lakes , that could be a good set up for damming in the Carolina's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 The storm for late week/next weekend is a big Midwest low on the 18z gfs. Storms taking a track to our west will be the common theme until we get a big arctic high to our north or high latitude blocking. With the deep trough in the west the heights rise too quickly and we get a storm well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 The storm for late week/next weekend is a big Midwest low on the 18z gfs. Storms taking a track to our west will be the common theme until we get a big arctic high to our north or high latitude blocking. With the deep trough in the west the heights rise too quickly and we get a storm well to our west. Agree 100% cutters till late in the month, when we might get the cold air east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 But there are many positives to take away from the past couple weeks. A. The pacific has really been great, with the -epo/+PNA, I believe this will continue throughout the winter. SST's support that as many have mentioned. B. The southern stream has reappeared after a general lack of activity this fall. I think once we get through the first two weeks of December hopefully we get the PNA ridging back over the west coast and we'll have a good shot at a winter storm if the transport of cold air is like it has been the past couple weeks. To really make things easier for a major snowstorm we need a west based block, and a spike to negative with the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Can we assume ice on the south side of each of these storms? TW The safe assumption would be to that the GFS is too suppressed with these systems and that come verification, there will be a nice rain for most, unfortunately. Parts of TN and the mountains may do ok. Right. The safest thing to assume right now is nothing at all! Like the saying goes when you assume something ya make an @s* out of you and me. But realistically it looks like No major warmup Storminess and cold ahead over the extended period--could be alot quicker. Really the most logic thing to do is watch. The is a pattern setting up in the immediate short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Devastating Ice storm for mby, NC, all over the SE.. even GA most likely.. 850s too warm, 2ms way too cold. 1044MB pushing down into NC, strong 1048 above that.. 1040 into KCAE.. If this happens, I'm leaving town for a while until the mess is cleaned up. 3 runs I looked at today with this thing.. just worse now. Like if this came to happen, it would be like armageddon down here in the SE for many of us. Over 1.5 inches of QPF in mby alone as ZR. EDIT: THANKfully its too far away and most likely wont happen.. but I think I'll keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Here is the 2m temps (850s are super warm): The reason this is interesting me is because it's been consistently showing up 3 runs now. 00z last night, 12 today, and now 00z tonight.. most extreme version of it tonight. MBY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Not as extreme, but the GGEM also has an ice/wintry deal since 12z, now 00z too in the SE for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 If u want a good ice storm then u need to the rain fall rates to be steady to light, but no heavy rains. With the last ice storm that some of us seen the thing that the models don't pick up on is the latent heat release. Usually but not always when temps start out around the 28 to 31 mark u usually switch over to plain rain will occur . Which in my opinion is the reason why here in the southeast we do get quite a bit. Of ice but at the same time we don't have more devastating ice storms. Something to watch when forecasting ice storms is the intensity of rain fall rates. No fan myself of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I'd rather have rain than ice. But I'm sure we're due for another major ice event, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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