Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[dsaur]

Nice write up, Jordan!  And congrats. 

  My good friend in England has been though two doozy storms already, and there have been predictions for a very cold and stormy winter.  It's looking good to her so far

   I'm at 34 before midnight, and if it was threatening rain, it's cold enough with evaporational cooling as it is so many times in winter.  It's the moisture that's lacking.  A marginal chance, as so many are.  An average winter is just fine with me.  We get good chances most every year, with the occasional space in between.

  The last two nights under a nearly full moon with the night all lit up, and cold, have been great winter nights.  I'll take 40 just like it this winter and be happy, because there would be chances with rain.  Tony

[Cold Rain]

It's very rare even for RDU to go completely skunked, we at worst get a trace of snow, be funny if we got skunked this year.

No it would not!

[WxJordan]

Newman! You beat me by 30 seconds. Nice red lettering there, by the way!

Edit: More like 2 minutes, but who's counting.

 

Thanks! I hope to contribute a little more to the forum since I don't have those pesky test, exams, presentations, you know, the little things that kept me busy.    But, I would not trade those experiences for anything because they helped me to learn a lot about the ways our atmosphere works.

[Met1985]

A lot to talk about as we move into the second half of December: Record warmth possible, severe weather possible, and a major storm developing in Europe.

 

First off, there will be record warmth across many locations in the southeast late this week. This ridge is going to really pull up a lot of warm air from the tropics, and it will provide some areas with record high temperatures this week.

 

Then, either an upper level low or large trough will march across the southeast United States. My biggest concern will be the threat of severe weather; however, the best chance appears to be strong gusty winds. While tornadoes can not be ruled out, a large outbreak over the GA, NC, SC, TN, and VA area is unlikely. Rain totals may be locally high also, as some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time as the front moves across the area.

 

For Christmas, it does not look white. Temperatures though look to be near average to slightly below average for Christmas Eve and Day. The only thing that could change in the Christmas forecast is if the ridge does not break down as quick as is modeled, which would probably delay the frontal passage. If this was to happen, the front may not pass until Christmas Eve. In my opinion, this is unlikely at the moment.

 

There is a lot of uncertainty in the models with the possibility of a major storm developing over Europe. This storm has the potential to change the entire global pattern. The GFS model shows this massive storm developing with central pressures dropping under 940 mb. I would not trust the models too far out because the uncertainty of this storm is very high. I think that is why you see a lot of equal chances in the CPC extended forecast, especially past ten days.

 

Right now, I am not sure if I can say which way the pattern will break. The models are all over the place, and I can make an argument why we would get warmer or colder towards the end of December. The fact remains that the AO and NAO are positive, so until I see a clear trend towards at least a neutral or negative solution, the cold air will continue to come and move right on out.

Nice write up  and congratulations again on the red tag!

[Cold Rain]

Thanks! I hope to contribute a little more to the forum since I don't have those pesky test, exams, presentations, you know, the little things that kept me busy. But, I would not trade those experiences for anything because they helped me to learn a lot about the ways our atmosphere works.

Well, we're all looking forward to it! I don't miss all those tests, projects, papers, etc. either. Studying was not something I enjoyed. Not studying was much more fun. It just made it harder to not have to take the class again, which was, occasionally, a problem.

[Southern Track]

It's interesting Robert mentioned the same global shakeup that could be coming due to that storm in Europe. No matter how it relates to the southeast this will be educational.

[buckeyefan1]

A lot to talk about as we move into the second half of December: Record warmth possible, severe weather possible, and a major storm developing in Europe.

 

First off, there will be record warmth across many locations in the southeast late this week. This ridge is going to really pull up a lot of warm air from the tropics, and it will provide some areas with record high temperatures this week.

 

Then, either an upper level low or large trough will march across the southeast United States. My biggest concern will be the threat of severe weather; however, the best chance appears to be strong gusty winds. While tornadoes can not be ruled out, a large outbreak over the GA, NC, SC, TN, and VA area is unlikely. Rain totals may be locally high also, as some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time as the front moves across the area.

 

For Christmas, it does not look white. Temperatures though look to be near average to slightly below average for Christmas Eve and Day. The only thing that could change in the Christmas forecast is if the ridge does not break down as quick as is modeled, which would probably delay the frontal passage. If this was to happen, the front may not pass until Christmas Eve. In my opinion, this is unlikely at the moment.

 

There is a lot of uncertainty in the models with the possibility of a major storm developing over Europe. This storm has the potential to change the entire global pattern. The GFS model shows this massive storm developing with central pressures dropping under 940 mb. I would not trust the models too far out because the uncertainty of this storm is very high. I think that is why you see a lot of equal chances in the CPC extended forecast, especially past ten days.

 

Right now, I am not sure if I can say which way the pattern will break. The models are all over the place, and I can make an argument why we would get warmer or colder towards the end of December. The fact remains that the AO and NAO are positive, so until I see a clear trend towards at least a neutral or negative solution, the cold air will continue to come and move right on out.

It is an impressive system      

 

Nothing frozen on the horizon and a string of 60+ degree days has begun      Such is life here in the SE     I'm actually looking forward to hearing some thunder this weekend      

[nchighcountrywx]

NWS GSP Weekly Discussion for Western North Carolina

[NCSNOW]

Do you have any information on the climo for accumulating snow in the winter overall for our area?  I'd have to think it's 95%+.  I can't remember the last time we didn't get an accumulating snow here (maybe in the mid-90s?).  That's why I never lose hope here.  Climo says we are going to get our share of snow eventually, even if it's not much.  Even in the God awful winter of 2011-2012 we got that snowstorm on February 19th and last year we got a couple decent events (1/17 and 1/25).  1/17 was a pretty serious event accumulation-wise (2-5" in the Greensboro area with 3.5" IMBY), but with temperatures above freezing and the soil warm and saturated, it melted pretty quickly, especially off the roads.

For the complete winter season we have never been skunked, even in these past 2 miserable winters. This winter in Asheboro on 11/13 they had a half an inch on the grassy surfaces tree limbs. MBY couldn't get the rates hard enough to manage nothing but a dusting. So technically some folks have avoided the skunk again. I was just referencing the time period of the first 25 days of January since it's just around the corner and a pattern change, hopefully for the best, is coming up right before we enter that period.

[NCSNOW]

It's interesting Robert mentioned the same global shakeup that could be coming due to that storm in Europe. No matter how it relates to the southeast this will be educational.

Could get the negative NAO everyone longs for and all that cold air that's been on our side of the pole wind up on the other side after this shakeup. Then all the block will have to work with is Canadian source air as opposed to true artic region source. Still might not be a bad deal, atleast it would have some staying power. Need to keep the pac. Negative NAO's without a favorable pac aren't all their cracked up to be for those south of the mason Dixon line.

[FallsLake]

Could get the negative NAO everyone longs for and all that cold air that's been on our side of the pole wind up on the other side after this shakeup. Then all the block will have to work with is Canadian source air as opposed to true artic region source. Still might not be a bad deal, atleast it would have some staying pattern. Need to keep the pac. Negative NAO's without a favorable pac aren't all their cracked up to be for those south of the mason Dixon line.

It seems to work that way. When the coldest air is in the NH it seems to be focused more to the west. That's why we(outside mts) don't "usually" get very cold (below zero) in the winter. If we actually got every factor on our side we could get a repeat of the 1985 cold outbreak that pushed RDU down to -9. And it was a dry cold....

[FallsLake]

Time for that Christmas picnic at the park. Record temps may be in store for many this weekend.

 

RAH long term discussion:

 

...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 21ST
AND 22ND OF DECEMBER.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP OFF THE SE COAST FRI-SUN. THIS WILL
BLOCK THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT
PER THE FAVORED AND SLOWER EC GUIDANCE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

UNTIL THEN... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A SW BREEZE. FRIDAY
HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH 70 AND EVEN HIT 70 IN THE SANDHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON MOST AREAS. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IF THIS OCCURS... NEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS
WOULD BE LIKELY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY THING THAT MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOW CLOUDINESS IN THE S-SW FLOW
PATTERN. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE NW PIEDMONT WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER... THE COOLEST GUIDANCE STILL GIVES LOWER 70S AT
GREENSBORO AND MID 70S IN RALEIGH SUNDAY... WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT AT
THE RECORD DAILY RECORDS OF 71 AND 75.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASING POP WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPS ON MONDAY
SHOULD COOL OFF DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE AND THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL.

BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD RETURN BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
(NEAR NORMAL) AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK... IS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A
CHANCE OF COLD RAIN AGAIN MID WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SE COAST.
 

[Cold Rain]

The overnights must have look horrible. Not a peep about them. I haven't had the chance to look yet.

[mackerel_sky]

The overnights must have look horrible. Not a peep about them. I haven't had the chance to look yet.

Yeah , total dumpster fire, if you like cold and snow! We are really grasping for things. We are thinking a monster storm in Europe will change up a pattern!?? I'm thinking 3 peat. Pretty soon we are going to run out of time with the cold always 15 days away!! Sound familiar?? Rant over!

[Southern Track]

The overnights must have look horrible. Not a peep about them. I haven't had the chance to look yet.

 

 

After this weekend, really no torch or major trough in the East.  Just transient shots of cold followed by moderation.  Sounds familiar, right?

[SnowNiner]

It's interesting Robert mentioned the same global shakeup that could be coming due to that storm in Europe. No matter how it relates to the southeast this will be educational.

 

Frankly I think Robert is concentrating alot on what "could" happen, but not necessarily on what is probable to happen.  I love reading his stuff and his knowledge but I'm just not convinced there's going to be a big "cold and stormy" pattern change yet he's been implying.  Maybe a pattern change, but I doubt cold and stormy.  The indices just don't concur yet. 

[Southern Track]

Frankly I think Robert is concentrating alot on what "could" happen, but not necessarily on what is probable to happen. I love reading his stuff and his knowledge but I'm just not convinced there's going to be a big "cold and stormy" pattern change yet he's been implying. Maybe a pattern change, but I doubt cold and stormy. The indices just don't concur yet.

I think every met that mentions this potential shake-up in the weather pattern also mentions how difficult forecasting January will be.

Robert, like all of us, is a fan of a more cold and snowy forecast for the East, but he never guaranteed anything.

[DaculaWeather]

Keep in mind that Robert likes to look past the models and use his own knowledge and experience to figure out what's going on. I like that additional "guidance" on top of the models. Right now, much past 4 days the models are all over the place. Let that be a sign unto you that changes are on the horizon.   We've seen this many times before, it seems the models get chaotic before pattern changes. 

[metalicwx366]

Yeah , total dumpster fire, if you like cold and snow! We are really grasping for things. We are thinking a monster storm in Europe will change up a pattern!?? I'm thinking 3 peat. Pretty soon we are going to run out of time with the cold always 15 days away!! Sound familiar?? Rant over!

Lol I wanted to say this so bad. You know it's terrible when we are looking at 15 day control runs and thinking +-940mb lows in Europe will give us blocking. Good lord. They had a monster storm a couple of months ago and I don't think it affected our pattern.

[Cold Rain]

 

Yeah , total dumpster fire, if you like cold and snow! We are really grasping for things. We are thinking a monster storm in Europe will change up a pattern!?? I'm thinking 3 peat. Pretty soon we are going to run out of time with the cold always 15 days away!! Sound familiar?? Rant over!

 

 

After this weekend, really no torch or major trough in the East.  Just transient shots of cold followed by moderation.  Sounds familiar, right?

 

Yeah, the torch is inbound...there's no question about it. But after, it's just kind of a meh pattern. The thing I look for with meh patterns is where the cold air source is in the NH. It still appears to be on our side of the globe, for the most part. So, if we can go through a transition phase and retain our cold air source, then we will have a shot at something down the road. In any case, for the next week to 10 days, there doesn't look to be any real chance of a winter storm, although, we rarely see one coming 10 days out anyway.

Who knows what the new pattern will be, if there is one. The -EPO/-WPO look to relax, while the ++AO/++NAO rages on (they still look to drop out in fantasy land, but who knows). The PNA should turn positive for a while, but its duration is questionable and it doesn't look to be an overwhelming feature that would force the storm track south and east of us.

All the talk of the big storm in Europe changing the global pattern is speculation, at best. It should be a strong storm, but a pressure of around 930 mb? Who wants to place bets that when we get close that it's not that low? The strat vortex is very strong, and it may take a disruption of that feature to bring about a meaningful pattern change.

In any case, we have a ton of winter to go. We have a legitimate cold air source for the forseeable future. There is a tendency for a +AO/+NAO, but there is also a tendency for large arctic highs and plenty of precipitation chances. As long as those things remain part of the pattern, I like our chances to line things up for a few winter events this year. Heck, we've already had some token events and a few close calls in the worst part of the season, climo-wise, all with an "unfavorable" pattern. That ought to be somewhat encouraging.

[Tacoma]

Not necessarily, it could help to establish a ridge that is very difficult to move over the southeast, or it could help to bring Greenland blocking that would help to "lock in" some cold air here in the southeast. I think the jury is still out, in my opinion. In matter of fact, I am not sure which one has the best chance of happening at the moment, so I am just in a wait and see mode right now. I am watching the trends on the global models and on the indices to see which way they trend. 

Let's hope not for another ridge, we've got a ridge in the southeast now, we don't need another one, its our turn to have some snow not the northeast.  They're expecting another 3-5 inches of snow today and got 10 the other day.  Share the wealth.  We need this ridge to get out of here.  

[metalicwx366]

By the way the indices are messing with us, the PNA is briefly about to go positive but the NAO and AO remain positive. Then as the NAO and AO get ready to dip in the negative territory, the PNA is going negative again. Still better than yesterday.

[Tacoma]

Lol I wanted to say this so bad. You know it's terrible when we are looking at 15 day control runs and thinking +-940mb lows in Europe will give us blocking. Good lord. They had a monster storm a couple of months ago and I don't think it affected our pattern.

yes this is terrible when we have to be hoping some big storm in Europe will change the pattern so its more favorable for us in 2 or 3 weeks.  seems like we've been waiting for 2 years now for the pattern to change.  can't get much worse.     I was hoping for snow yesterday let alone 2 or 3 weeks and this is only a possibility.  

[BullCityWx]

We can work with a slightly negative PNA if the AO and NAO are both negative

[DaculaWeather]

During the calm before the storm, it's time to bone up n your winter weather skillz...

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail_courses.php?orderBy=publishDateDesc&topicSorting=13

 

All free.

[WxJordan]

Lol I wanted to say this so bad. You know it's terrible when we are looking at 15 day control runs and thinking +-940mb lows in Europe will give us blocking. Good lord. They had a monster storm a couple of months ago and I don't think it affected our pattern.

 

 

yes this is terrible when we have to be hoping some big storm in Europe will change the pattern so its more variable for us in 2 or 3 weeks.  seems like we've been waiting for 2 years now for the pattern to change.  can't get much worse.     I was hoping for snow yesterday let alone 2 or 3 weeks and this is only a possibility.  

 

The fact is that this storm will some how and some way affect the atmospheric patterns. These storms on the other side of the globe do affect what occurs all across the globe. I do not know how the storm will affect us, but it has the potential and will probably affect the atmospheric circulations for 1-2 weeks. The models will not be able to understand how it will affect the pattern. It could affect the pattern by making it cooler in the southeast or warmer in the southeast. Both solutions are possible at the moment.

However, the indices this morning, especially the AO, shows a major drop following the storm towards neutral territory. Will this happen? I don't know. No one does. The trend as shown over the past three days for some sort of AO drop towards neutral late this month. While a neutral AO is less than desirable, it is steps in the right direction.

But this storm will affect the atmosphere if it is able to drop to the extreme levels as shown on the models. What happens after the storm is unclear in the southeast.

[Bevo]

Yeah , total dumpster fire, if you like cold and snow! We are really grasping for things. We are thinking a monster storm in Europe will change up a pattern!?? I'm thinking 3 peat. Pretty soon we are going to run out of time with the cold always 15 days away!! Sound familiar?? Rant over!

 

A 3 peat of what?  You and I were closer to normal than just about everyone else in the SE last winter thanks to constant wedges.  I don't know about S-ville, but on 2/16 I experienced a convective snow storm that dropped just under 3 inches in 2 1/2 hours (I think I posted some videos here). 

 

And again, I have yet to see the incredible warm ups that were supposed to show up (except for a 2 day stretch of high 60's/low 70's).  I do think we'll endure some warm weather by this weekend, but I'm even suspicious of just how warm it will be.  What we have been experiencing is the opposite of the bolded part of your post.  Unless you have moved to south GA, what's to rant about?

[Brick Tamland]

Not saying things won't change. It does look like it will get cold again after Christmas. But I think folks are grasping at straws now in regards to seeing snow here.

[Bevo]

yes this is terrible when we have to be hoping some big storm in Europe will change the pattern so its more variable for us in 2 or 3 weeks.  seems like we've been waiting for 2 years now for the pattern to change.  can't get much worse.     I was hoping for snow yesterday let alone 2 or 3 weeks and this is only a possibility.  

 

The pattern DID change - back in March.  And I am absolutely positive it could get much worse (last two winters as an example).  I am not understanding the perception that this winter has been at all similar to the last two up to this point.

[metalicwx366]

I am not understanding the perception that this winter has been at all similar to the last two up to this point.

Exactly. It's been warmer than last winter so far. I remember last year you were one of the ones that ended up below average last winter. Nearly everyone is above average so far this winter and record warmth is on the way for this weekend.