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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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The EPO is beginning to flatten out and may even briefly go positive which isn't good news if you are a cold lover. The AO was +4 SD today and looks to remain strongly positive, the NAO is staying positive. It seems that the NAO tends to follow the AO. If that is right, it will be hard to get a negative AO and NAO this winter. PNA looks to go Neutral which isn't going to help. The upcoming pattern later this week looks warm with potentially some severe weather. More exciting than cold and dry.

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Do you not realize that says 6-10 day outlook?

It's currently cold and dry for most of the SE now through about Thursday.

 

It is not that cold...most will hit 60 at least twice by Thursday. We just came out of periods of cold rain less than like 48 hours ago. Cold and dry does not represent what is going on.

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It is not that cold...most will hit 60 at least twice by Thursday. We just came out of periods of cold rain less than like 48 hours ago. Cold and dry does not represent what is going on.

.

Are you kidding me? If you are saying this weather is warm, then it will be a blowtorch this weekend, and you must also agree that the first 10 days of December was a torch and not average like you and others were saying.

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST MON DEC 16 2013

FOR THE SAT/D6-MON/D8 PERIOD...WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AROUND SUN/D7...THERE IS MUCH VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A
FEW SHOWING NO UPPER LOW AT ALL. THEREFORE...WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS TIME FRAME...PREDICTABILITY IS
FAR TOO LOW.

..JEWELL.. 12/16/2013

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It would be terrible if we get a 3rd bad winter in a row, but it seems like that's becoming more of a reality.

 

Not really.  It's not even January yet.  All it takes to get a "good winter" for most of us is one or two storms.  We've got months left.

 

I tend to doubt we'll see any action until at least the beginning of January (perhaps later in January), but even then we have three months to work with, realistically.

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This system coming over the weekend will be fun to track and watch.

There will be tons of warm air being pulled up from the tropics. Many areas will challenge established records this weekend. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s across many areas of the southeast.

Tons of moisture will also be transported northward through the time frame, and I am getting concerned about the severe weather threat. Right now, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, and the remainder of the southeast stand a good chance of seeing some sort of severe weather this weekend. The extent is not known at the moment; however, with the amounts of moisture and the general set up, it is favorable for the chance of widespread severe weather. I can not rule out the possibility of tornadoes; however, it is way to early to discuss what types of severe weather will accompany this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible. Right now models paint the best chance of heavy rain to our north along the warm front as it surges northward, which is reasonable. I also believe a large part of the southeast will see 1-2 inches of rain in a 3-6 hour time frame as the front passes.

The models are also showing CAPE values around 100-500 J/kg across locations in the southeast, which is high for this time of year. A 160 knot jet will be positioned to our north and we will be under an area of upper level divergence. Wind shear also has a good chance to be very high.

I will continue to watch this particular storm and will continue to post updates on it.

 

After this storm passes, Christmas looks okay with slightly below average to average temperatures. No real cool downs are shown on the models through December, but the indices do appear to be trending in a good direction, so that will be something to watch over the next days as we move towards the end of the month.

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I have noticed that several meteorologists who were touting a turn to cold for us before Christmas, then delayed it to Christmas week, are now backing off the "coming" winter cold until after the first of the year. Before it gets into March, and the period this change actually might occur, maybe everyone should just expect a milder than normal winter here with little chance of snow and then they won't be disappointed when the cold keeps getting delayed. That does not mean it will be warm, merely transient periods of "not cold enough for any snow" until it is too late in the season.

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It would be terrible if we get a 3rd bad winter in a row, but it seems like that's becoming more of a reality.

don't think I've ever seen 3 straight winters with no snow on the ground. Pretty much unheard of even in Georgia. Maybe if we go 4 or 5 straight winters with no snow that will set us for a monster year around 2015 or so. It all averages out right ? Get a bunch of years with no snow then 10 inches of snow in one year and we get our average of 2 inches.
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The great strat vortex at 10mb. We've got to take this sucker down to have any chance of a sustained -AO/NAO.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-92.53,57.80,459

Wow that is a nice map.

Maybe we can get a super volcano to erupt. Models aren't good at handling those suckers. It might force the great strat vortex down giving us a - NAO and AO. If that doesn't work, maybe we will get it for Christmas.

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Never really followed the EPO but from everything I've read it's one of the things that has saved us from torching (to this point). If it goes positive we will probably be in real trouble (torch wise). But it looks to stay mostly negative in the LR.  

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.png

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Seems we always have something working against us so far this winter if we want snow. If it's not one thing, it's another. I can't take anymore cold rain, either. So, I am looking forward to the warm up this week before the cold rain comes back. Just odd that we might have severe storms a few days before Christmas. Maybe if we hear some thunder that old tale about thunder in winter will come true, though.

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Seems we always have something working against us so far this winter if we want snow. If it's not one thing, it's another. I can't take anymore cold rain, either. So, I am looking forward to the warm up this week before the cold rain comes back. Just odd that we might have severe storms a few days before Christmas. Maybe if we hear some thunder that old tale about thunder in winter will come true, though.

 

I had a small tornado touch down about 2 years ago on Christmas Eve and it didn't snow the rest of the winter.

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 Good news for those who don't want a hot Christmas: the 12Z GFS and Euro both show seasonable to slightly colder than normal. So, that should get you into that Christmas spirit! Even Brick should be satisfied. It isn't cold rain, cold and dry, or hot. It is chilly and dry, a classic Brick kind of Christmas. :)

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I believe the Canadian along with the GFS ensembles from last night at least showed below normal to normal conditions for most of us.  There was evidence of a possible EC trough developing way later on also for a part of Jan.  JB did show a map of the +NAO possibly moving around a bit on top of that.  Still far out there, and I would think most of this post's talk belongs in a Jan thread.

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don't think I've ever seen 3 straight winters with no snow on the ground. Pretty much unheard of even in Georgia. Maybe if we go 4 or 5 straight winters with no snow that will set us for a monster year around 2015 or so. It all averages out right ? Get a bunch of years with no snow then 10 inches of snow in one year and we get our average of 2 inches.

Winter 2010-11 had a freakin' White Christmas in Atlanta, followed by a major snow/ice storm in January 2011. We'd have to not get any this winter and next winter to make it 3 in a row.

 

It's only December 16th, relax a bit.

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Euro has cut off over NW Mexico, northern stream energy diving down, 1040+H west of the lakes, what more can you ask for….Alright, I am reaching, but not terrible look, still no blocking, if we had blocking this would be a blizzard for us.

I mentioned that it wasn't a terrible look. Nice ridging out west, energy in the southwest, confluence in the northeast and sufficient high pressures over the top. Would be marginal I am sure, but still something to follow.
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That's because it sent you to the Land Of Oz; and everybody knows it doesn't snow there.

 

LOL! Only if the man behind the curtain allows it (c'mon Lookout!!)

 

It's certainly too early to write this winter off but it sure would be nice for some of the long-range indices start heading in the right direction. That energy being held back in New Mexico is soooo Euro. I can't believe how much it does that 10 days out.

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