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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

CAD_Wedge_NC

By CAD_Wedge_NC,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Wow, Atlanta picked up 0.4 in November?

 

Metal,

 I was kind of shocked about it because I think I got only a trace of mainly IP as I was in ATL then. I don't know for sure since I slept through it. But I saw so little after I woke up pretty early in the morning...mainly just some IP on my balcony ledge and on portions of roofs. So, I didn't even check the KATL records for a couple of days. Then I saw it! I still wonder if anyone on this BB in the ATL area actually saw nearly 1/2" of snow on 11/27/13? To be fair, my home is on the northside of ATL and the airport south of me by ~25-30 miles.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Metal,

I was kind of shocked about it because I think I got only a trace of mainly IP as I was in ATL then. I don't know for sure since I slept through it. But I saw so little after I woke up pretty early in the morning...mainly just some IP on my balcony ledge and on portions of roofs. So, I didn't even check the KATL records for a couple of days. Then I saw it! I still wonder if anyone on this BB in the ATL area actually saw nearly 1/2" of snow on 11/27/13?

.

I saw the official trace here at GSP from the same event. I watched the first flakes mix in with the rain, then go to heavy snow with big cotton ball flakes for about 30 min! It was a thing of beauty and looking forward to some real snow coming in Jan!!

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

I think we also need to remember that we live in the SE. Many of us average 2"-6" of snow a season. While tracking potential cold and snow is fun, unrealistic expectations can lead to major disappointment, depression, and cliff diving. I am 46 years old and have learned life is more enjoyable when your expectations are tempered. I also know these stats from MBY in Tyrone GA.

Winter 97-98 No Snow

Winter 98-99 No Snow

Winter 99-00 No Snow

Winter 02-03 No Snow

Winter 03-04 No Snow

Winter 04-05 No Snow

Winter 05-06 No Snow

Winter 06-07 No Snow

Winter 11-12 No Snow

Winter 12-13 No Snow

That is 10 out of 16 winters with no accumulating snow! When people start freaking out and canceling winter and talk about how terrible the pattern is when I have already had snow on the ground before Thanksgiving, excuse me if I don't get it. With the exception of 3-4 days, I have had cool to cold weather with lots of rain. Compared to many of the previous years, I will gladly take it.

the climate in Tyrone and at the Atlanta airport must be much different. Atlanta has only went 3 straight years with no accumulating snow one time. I live in Carrollton, not too far from where you live, and we used to get at least a dusting of snow every year, up until about 2005.
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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

Yes Atlanta only averages like 2 inches of snow per winter, but I think the fact that we've been snowless the last 2 winters plus places in Texas and in Jerusalem, etc getting snow and ice makes us feel a little left out. I have no problem with places like TN and NC getting more snow or ice than Georgia. But deep into Texas and Jerusalem ? Yeah that hurts. Oh and the 1/2" of snow in atl last month ? I don't think that counts since it melted in a few minutes and almost nobody in Georgia saw snow that day.

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jrips27

jrips27

Posted
Posted

Metal,

 I was kind of shocked about it because I think I got only a trace of mainly IP as I was in ATL then. I don't know for sure since I slept through it. But I saw so little after I woke up pretty early in the morning...mainly just some IP on my balcony ledge and on portions of roofs. So, I didn't even check the KATL records for a couple of days. Then I saw it! I still wonder if anyone on this BB in the ATL area actually saw nearly 1/2" of snow on 11/27/13? To be fair, my home is on the northside of ATL and the airport south of me by ~25-30 miles.

I live a few miles SW of Kennesaw and had about a 20 minute burst of snow that night. Not sure on an exact total, but between a dusting and a half an inch. Here's a picture...

post-777-0-37023800-1387081781_thumb.jpg

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

the climate in Tyrone and at the Atlanta airport must be much different. Atlanta has only went 3 straight years with no accumulating snow one time. I live in Carrollton, not too far from where you live, and we used to get at least a dusting of snow every year, up until about 2005.

One would think that because the ATL airport is less than a 30 minute drive north that the climate would be about the same. And it really is. It just so happens that we are just enough south ATL to occasionally miss snow that Atlanta gets. The big snow and ice storm of Jan. 2011 we got about 3-4" less snow than Fairburn GA. which is just 7-8 miles up the road. The northern suburbs of ATL will cash in much more frequently. On the other hand, every once in awhile we will get lucky on a low that scoots across the gulf and we score bigger than the city of Atlanta. That is rather rare though.

 

On the snow cover the day before Thanksgiving, I would say 1/2" is about right for MBY. it was quite a surprise.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I just want enough snow to cover the grass to the point where no tips of grass stick through the snow! That's all I ever wish for every winter. Since I have Bermuda that is kept about an inch or two, that should be pretty easy , I hope! As a side note, Robert seems pretty excited about the period after next weekend for cold and wintry pattern possibly setting up! I like when he talks like that

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

would be somewhat comical if you saw more snow in November than dec-march combined. Is that even possible ?

 

Very possible. Nov. had measurable snow three times prior to 2013 going back to 1890 at ATL: 1912, 1968, and 1975. DJFM of 1912-13 and 1975-6 only got a T. Now, OTOH, 1968-9's DJFM got 1.2", which was more than the 1.0" of Nov., 1968.

 

Thanks, Justin and Batman, for the evidence fully supporting the official 0.4". I guess the NE side kind of got robbed lol. But it is all good.

 

EDIT: OTOH, the median snowfall for just J-M is almost 1" or well above the 0.4". So, chances are well under 50% imo, that DJFM won't exceed the 0.4" of Nov..

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I honestly have no idea whether it snowed at my house on 11-27. I woke up at 11am and saw no signs of snow so I'm just going to assume it didn't snow.

 

 I think that's a dangerous assumption. By 11 AM, a lot could have easily melted. My tiny bit of IP was long gone by 11 AM.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

would be somewhat comical if you saw more snow in November than dec-march combined. Is that even possible ?

Oh, yeah, I have distinct memories of years when all I saw all year, was 30 seconds of sleet at the start of a cold rain in Nov.  That's it, finito, kaput, winter weather over for another year.  Those hurt so bad, 'cause you think it's a sign...oh boy, wait until Jan, lol, and you get the twist of the dagger instead.  Mother nature has a cruel streak, if you hadn't noticed :)  T

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Someone over at Talkweather posted this radar grab that night that gives you a decent idea where it snowed.

 

Please tell me thats a photoshop image and not a legit color scheme/ graphic from a pay app? if so i must say "lol."

 

Anyway, models are still poo generally tonight.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Nothing really interesting in the extended. Some cold air invades the south after Christmas and maybe there is a threat or two, but it would still take some perfect timing. It's looking like we will have a hard time with any lasting cold or winter storms until the indices come around to our favor. The way it looks to me we may be looking at a winter dominated by the current indicia setup. The one hope I have is for the mid winter flip. I read many years back that in a winter that was dominated by one particular pattern, the opposite pattern usually occurs at mid season. Many of us would know this as the mid winter thaw, but in our case it would be the mid winter freeze. I'm just hoping that when(if) the flip occurs that we still have cold air on our side of the world.   

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Well todays indices look a little bit better.

 

PNA actually looks to go positive in the LR --Good

NAO stays positive --Bad

AO actually looks to fall near neutral --Average

 

Still not an overall good look but definitely better

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

Well todays indices look a little bit better.

 

PNA actually looks to go positive in the LR --Good

NAO stays positive --Bad

AO actually looks to fall near neutral --Average

 

Still not an overall good look but definitely better

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

If we could get a positive PNA, that might be enough to throw us a wintry bone or two. At this point that might be our best hope until the deck is completely reshuffled.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

It's pretty obvious from looking at some of these images, as to why we aren't getting any real cold right now. That big ridge in the Atlantic needs to move it's azz north, and move the PV west. All the really cold air just slides east, as it's the path of least resistance.

Amazing what staying power that heat pump off the East Coast has. It makes one wonder if there if there had been more tropical activity evacuating water heat content this past summer, would the ridge have been weaker this winter

iHFpqqI.gif

.

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J.C.

J.C.

Posted
Posted

Someone over at Talkweather posted this radar grab that night that gives you a decent idea where it snowed.

 

I lived in Paulding County for 10 years.  That stretch of snow is right over a stretch of land that is 1100-1350ft above sea level.  That happened quite a bit on that side of town.  

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Once again this morning, the GFS taketh away. It is certainly a trend. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But, Steve, everyone knows if you don't like the maps today, wait two days and look again....it'll be ack basswards.  Meanwhile, I have to change out a  water pump on my van, and it's going to numb out my fingers.  Yet, I'm pretty sure a few days ago I was supposed to be dealing with a torch.  Funny that :)  It's 42.  T

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