Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Robert seems to be pumping up the end of the month pretty good. From the models, don't know if he's crazy or a genius...I think he expects the western ridge to amplify and give us a pos pna. That would be great but I don't see it showing up on the models yet.

Take a look at the 12z GFS around 300 hrs +. That's an example of what he's talking about. If it happens, more of the SE will be in the game. He says interior SE. That phrase always makes me nervous. We'll see if we're still waiting at mid Jan.

[packbacker]

Until I see a sustained -NAO I'm going to be guarded about any winter threats showing up.  It's good to have plentiful cold air on our side of the globe but we need Atlantic blocking to displace the vortex far enough south.

 

Below is the avg NAO over the past 8 months, and we can go ahead and pencil in a positive NAO for December so over a 9 month period it's predominately positive.  No way it's going to be positive for January and February, that would be 10 out of 11 months of a positive NAO if that occurred.  Granted we saw NAO be predominately positive in the 90's, let's hope we aren't starting another decade like that again.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Highs in the 70's, lows in the 60's. Humid.

Actually sounds a little more like Memorial Day.

Not seeing it..... Once again, I'll take the under....... With the exception of one, all the modeled warm-ups have not come to pass.

[superjames1992]

I think we do need to remember it's still December.  2009 and 2010 may have spoiled some of us with bountiful snows in December, but the reality is that December is the least snowy of the D-J-F-M period.  Let's be patient and hope things look better as we head into January.

[GaWx]

+100

 

I don't really like the look of anything, even around Christmas.  No matter who tries to make me think differently with their theories.. nothing really super stands out without favorable teles.

 

JB did say earlier that he thought maybe the Euro was holding too much energy back in the SW further from now.. and the energy ends up phasing to create a bigger Wintry deal, but I don't know where he meant for.. or where he thought the phase was.. I think it was more of a general statement.

 

 We could only guess for where JB is talking. Also, for much of the SE US, phasing in most cases imo is bad news since it usually means further north track/more WAA ahead of it though it could mean better backlash. Many of the biggest SE snowstorms were weak to moderate Miller A's since they kept a far south track. Look at old wx maps. 93 was one exception. But with that, it was mainly backlash in ATL and nearby spots. If I were given a choice between phased and not as regards chance for wintry precip. in place like ATL, I'd choose non-phased, thanks.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I think we do need to remember it's still December.  2009 and 2010 may have spoiled some of us with bountiful snows in December, but the reality is that December is the least snowy of the D-J-F-M period.  Let's be patient and hope things look better as we head into January.

 

Now, I'm not saying we'll see an above average winter in terms of snowfall or even and average one, but I'm pretty sure some (or most) of us will eventually score something.

 

As some posters have already mentioned, if the current pattern continues, some folks will be hit hard when the colder climo period arrives later this month into January. The pattern which seems to be repeating is one filled with CADs. Without blocking the strong high pressures slide into New England and wedge down into our area during the precip events. For those hoping for an all snow event, it will be hard to get it in this type of pattern. It would take a perfectly timed system...."threading the needle". That's the main reason why a -NAO is responsible for a lot more snowfall in the SE. Blocking pushes the storm track east. With that being said, winter weather (mix of freezing rain, sleet and front-end snows) due to miller B storms and over-running will be more likely.

[nchighcountrywx]

Per the 12z ECMWF and GFS, North Carolina again misses out on the cold intrusion around Christmas. It is another quick glancing intrusion of cold to the north. Next chance then around weekend after Christmas.

[Heisy]

18z GFS showing ice storm again for Mid-Atlantic as moisture is swung into the cold high set in place. GFS still on its own with not phasing the two branches thus letting the northern jet head east to lay down some cold air. Would be a nice ice setup, especially if the PV was farther south. 

[packbacker]

18z GFS showing ice storm again for Mid-Atlantic as moisture is swung into the cold high set in place. GFS still on its own with not phasing the two branches thus letting the northern jet head east to lay down some cold air. Would be a nice ice setup, especially if the PV was farther south. 

 

Yep, gulf low and everything, granted it cuts and probably will end up being a repeat of what you guys are seeing now.  To bad the 1040H isn't 400 miles SW.

[pcbjr]

Maybe I am hallucinating ....

 

But, it seems to me that for at least the last 2 weeks, for my location anyway, and most any SE location I randomly check on, the OZ GFS is cold and wet, the 6Z is a bit warmer and not quite as wet, the 12Z is warmer and less wet and the 18Z is even warmer.

 

Wish I had kept an Excel spreadsheet to validate, but it sure seems this way.

 

Is there something in the data input that is GIGO, or ....

 

Just an observation, but maybe one to keep a sleepy eye on.

[jburns]

Trying not to be overly critical here, but this post has me scratching my head. How do we know that the primary pattern for the entire winter set in two weeks ago. What pattern was that? Was it the 3 days that we were 15-20 degrees above normal. Is that the primary pattern for the winter? The way I see it, that wasn't even the primary pattern for December. The first couple days of December were at or slightly below average. The last week has been below average. We have had good rains this month thus far. That to me is not the sign of an overpowering SE ridge. I have seen Decembers with an overpowering SE ridge and this is not it. Maybe folks are getting upset because it is colder and snowier to our north and west. Many winters evolve by stepping down. Many winters in the southeast never evolve into anything. I would take where are now (good moisture flow and cold air close by) compared to many Decembers in my 22 years in Georgia.

 

You and highcountry are talking about two different things.  He is alluding to the overall pattern setup. You seem to be having a problem separating individual events from an overall pattern.  It's not about the next two days or what happened for three days last week.

[DaculaWeather]

This mornings run, the high is stronger and the low is weaker

 

 

In this evenings run, the high is weaker and the low is stronger

 

[franklin NCwx]

You and highcountry are talking about two different things. He is alluding to the overall pattern setup. You seem to be having a problem separating individual events from an overall pattern. It's not about the next two days or what happened for three days last week.

how are we 40 percent thru winter when we are not even to the winter solstice?

[pcbjr]

#1308

 

My point in a micro perspective

[Batman]

I think we do need to remember it's still December.  2009 and 2010 may have spoiled some of us with bountiful snows in December, but the reality is that December is the least snowy of the D-J-F-M period.  Let's be patient and hope things look better as we head into January.

I think we also need to remember that we live in the SE. Many of us average 2"-6" of snow a season. While tracking potential cold and snow is fun, unrealistic expectations can lead to major disappointment, depression, and cliff diving. I am 46 years old and have learned life is more enjoyable when your expectations are tempered. I also know these stats from MBY in Tyrone GA.

 

Winter 97-98 No Snow

Winter 98-99 No Snow

Winter 99-00 No Snow

Winter 02-03 No Snow

Winter 03-04 No Snow

Winter 04-05 No Snow

Winter 05-06 No Snow

Winter 06-07 No Snow

Winter 11-12 No Snow

Winter 12-13 No Snow

 

That is 10 out of 16 winters with no accumulating snow!  When people start freaking out and canceling winter and talk about how terrible the pattern is when I have already had snow on the ground before Thanksgiving, excuse me if I don't get it. With the exception of 3-4 days, I have had cool to cold weather with lots of rain. Compared to many of the previous years, I will gladly take it.

[Batman]

You and highcountry are talking about two different things.  He is alluding to the overall pattern setup. You seem to be having a problem separating individual events from an overall pattern.  It's not about the next two days or what happened for three days last week.

No, not at all. Highcountry seems to me to be saying the pattern is terrible. I am saying that there were about 3 days of real warm weather, but those three days do not make the pattern. Aside from 3 days last week, the last 6 weeks have been much better than normal compared to most years. Maybe we have a situation where highcountry and I are looking at this from different perspectives. He from elevation in NC and I from the piedmont of GA. Maybe his expectation of snow (as well as others) and mine may be quite different because of location.

[jburns]

No, not at all. Highcountry seems to me to be saying the pattern is terrible. I am saying that there were about 3 days of real warm weather, but those three days do not make the pattern. Aside from 3 days last week, the last 6 weeks have been much better than normal compared to most years. Maybe we have a situation where highcountry and I are looking at this from different perspectives. He from elevation in NC and I from the piedmont of GA. Maybe his expectation of snow (as well as others) and mine may be quite different because of location.

 

The overall pattern does not look good for the foreseeable future, if you like snow. I believe that is where he got his 40% from.  

[metalicwx366]

No, not at all. Highcountry seems to me to be saying the pattern is terrible. I am saying that there were about 3 days of real warm weather, but those three days do not make the pattern. Aside from 3 days last week, the last 6 weeks have been much better than normal compared to most years. Maybe we have a situation where highcountry and I are looking at this from different perspectives. He from elevation in NC and I from the piedmont of GA. Maybe his expectation of snow (as well as others) and mine may be quite different because of location.

The pattern is terrible. Most of the SE is still above average for the month so far due to those warm days.

[NCSNOW]

The pattern is terrible. Most of the SE is still above average for the month so far due to those warm days.

I posted this last night. The fact is the entire state of North Carolina is runing -2 to -4 below normal over the past 30 days from November 12- December 14. 

[DaculaWeather]

And here is November: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_graphical_cag.php

 

[griteater]

We were discussing this the other day in the banter thread.  I think different people have different perspectives in terms of what they are focusing on.  If you take out a couple of days, Charlotte is near normal with temperatures for the month of Dec.  But if you are looking at the pattern, and its ability to produce a good winter storm, the conditions have been, and continue to look, less than optimal.  I say that with the understanding that this is early-mid Dec...but if you plant this pattern in the heart of winter, there are still going to be issues with it producing...in particular with it producing a good snow.

[DaculaWeather]

And by region: 

 

 

[NEGa]

I think we do need to remember it's still December.  2009 and 2010 may have spoiled some of us with bountiful snows in December, but the reality is that December is the least snowy of the D-J-F-M period.  Let's be patient and hope things look better as we head into January.

 

*stamp of approval*  exactly....even in the roaring mid 70s thru 80s while there might be a storm in nov/dec infrequently, cold air and maybe flurries were exciting.  in n ga, at least, this has never really been a good time of the year for se winter storms.  had one in dec 05 then nothing until a couple of years ago with the back to back great winters.  otherwise jan - mar are when the biggest snows/ice generally is on the menu so to speak.  get a decent pattern going in late fall and if it can carry through til jan then we can be in business

 

 

 

We were discussing this the other day in the banter thread.  I think different people have different perspectives in terms of what they are focusing on.  If you take out a couple of days, Charlotte is near normal with temperatures for the month of Dec.  But if you are looking at the pattern, and its ability to produce a good winter storm, the conditions have been, and continue to look, less than optimal.  I say that with the understanding that this is early-mid Dec...but if you plant this pattern in the heart of winter, there are still going to be issues with it producing...in particular with it producing a good snow.

 

lol that is certainly true, just look how all-over-the-place the comments have been last couple of weeks.  i think the pattern has been fine for the most part. a little ice here and a couple of the proverbial cold rain in the mid 30s.  if we can have this again in jan with the snow cover and keeping temps even just a little colder the cold rain could easily be something else. 

 

this is the se, other than the two winters mentioned above, it is almost never back to back cold! that is the upper midwest and NE

[Cold Rain]

Some good thoughts in here tonight. On one hand, I can see some reasons for negativity:

1) The majority of the region hasn't seen a meaningful winter storm in a couple of years.

2) The current pattern has not been conducive to alleviating the snow drought.

3) Areas not too far north and west have seen winter weather and stand a decent chance to see more in the not too distant future.

4) Modeled warm-ups can be scary if you are a cold fan.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what the general expectation is. Larry's stats indicate that greater than 90% of winter precipitation events are rain. He didn't just start keeping stats in 2011. So what are we looking for that will make us happy?

1) Wall to wall cold?

2) A snowpack that stays on the ground from December till March?

3) A -NAO all winter long?

How often do those things happen here? And why would we expect that? If that's the expectation, it has already failed.

On the other hand, are we expecting wall to wall warmth? If so, why? If that's the expectation, that has also already failed.

So it's likely, those are not anyone's real expectations, because that would be absurdly unrealistic. Therefore, it's likely that the majority of expectations are for some cold and snow and some mild periods as well -- a much more reasonable expectation.

At this time, there is nothing to suggest that expectation will fail this winter. Not one thing. Zero. The current pattern isn't great for snow. Sure, ok. But that doesn't mean it can't. Many winter storms have occurred in patterns that aren't great for snow.

It would be awesome to have a great pattern set up. But many great patterns have underperformed too. Still, I think we'd all take our chances with a great pattern. But even if we don't get it, there is a lot of cold around. This is the very kind of year when a not so great pattern has a decent shot of producing something. And it's likely we won't see it coming more that a couple/few days in advance.

It's easy to be negative based on how the last couple of years have gone. But I have seen nothing to diminish my optimism for this winter. I'm not even writing the rest of the month off. We have a long way to go yet. Just enjoy the ride.

[BIG FROSTY]

Found this looking around from a well known Met that I will not mention His name. But thought this was interesting non the less about next weekend's storm!

 

 

The warmup coming should be short lived. I believe the arctic air mass will be stronger further south and then push quicker east, The ECWMF has been all over the place with the tracks of the low next weekend, and I think it will come up on the east side of the Appalachians. In any case the danger going forward is the modeling showing a more western N America ridge comes out right. The ECWMF ensembles are nothing like their weeklies the model is all over the place, and seeing that with ensembles is something that is very unusual. The danger of this winter is that what has driven the early season cold gives way to what we saw the mid and latter part of the winter last year.. as the atlantic teleconnections become more important.

 

 

Of course if it comes up on the east side of the mountains it will probably come right through the central Carolinas instead of eastern Carolinas or coast. So it can be sure and keep warm air across the Foothills and Piedmont's!

[dsaur]

Not seeing it..... Once again, I'll take the under....... With the exception of one, all the modeled warm-ups have not come to pass.

Yep, on that!  I figure we had 3 weeks or so of big highs, and an active gulf, so the cycle repeats starting after Christmas.  I rarely get anything before then anyway, unlike you guys   The long range for Xmas was super cold a few days back, and it'll show up super cold again.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to the 0 between Christmas and New Years day....unfortunately it wouldn't surprise me to see 75 either, lol.  I've lived through more of the latter than the former   T

[GaWx]

I think we also need to remember that we live in the SE. Many of us average 2"-6" of snow a season. While tracking potential cold and snow is fun, unrealistic expectations can lead to major disappointment, depression, and cliff diving. I am 46 years old and have learned life is more enjoyable when your expectations are tempered. I also know these stats from MBY in Tyrone GA.

 

Winter 97-98 No Snow

Winter 98-99 No Snow

Winter 99-00 No Snow

Winter 02-03 No Snow

Winter 03-04 No Snow

Winter 04-05 No Snow

Winter 05-06 No Snow

Winter 06-07 No Snow

Winter 11-12 No Snow

Winter 12-13 No Snow

 

That is 10 out of 16 winters with no accumulating snow!  When people start freaking out and canceling winter and talk about how terrible the pattern is when I have already had snow on the ground before Thanksgiving, excuse me if I don't get it. With the exception of 3-4 days, I have had cool to cold weather with lots of rain. Compared to many of the previous years, I will gladly take it.

 

 Nice post, especially what I bolded! Tempered expectations may tend to come with age/experience. But even that isn't needed as it is all in the climate records for anyone to see. Atlanta gets a major snow about once every 4 years, period. That's just often enough for reasonable hope for any one winter but is low enough to keep expectations in check. Also, whereas ATL's av. is ~2", the median is only ~1".  Those south of Atlanta to Columbia average under 2" of snow, of course.

 

Edit: that was 1st Nov. measurable snow at KATL since 1975! Isn't that 0.4" worth something to Atlanta snow fans that got it? Out of curiosity, did anyone in the ATL area measure that much?

[metalicwx366]

Nice post, especially what I bolded! Tempered expectations may tend to come with age/experience. But even that isn't needed as it is all in the climate records for anyone to see. Atlanta gets a major snow about once every 4 years, period. That's just often enough for reasonable hope for any one winter but is low enough to keep expectations in check. Also, whereas ATL's av. is ~2", the median is only ~1". Those south of Atlanta to Columbia average under 2" of snow, of course.

Edit: that was 1st Nov. measurable snow at KATL since 1975! Isn't that 0.4" worth something to Atlanta snow fans that got it? Out of curiosity, did anyone in the ATL area measure that much?

Wow, Atlanta picked up 0.4 in November?

[GaWx]

Some good thoughts in here tonight. On one hand, I can see some reasons for negativity:

1) The majority of the region hasn't seen a meaningful winter storm in a couple of years.

2) The current pattern has not been conducive to alleviating the snow drought.

3) Areas not too far north and west have seen winter weather and stand a decent chance to see more in the not too distant future.

4) Modeled warm-ups can be scary if you are a cold fan.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what the general expectation is. Larry's stats indicate that greater than 90% of winter precipitation events are rain. He didn't just start keeping stats in 2011. So what are we looking for that will make us happy?

1) Wall to wall cold?

2) A snowpack that stays on the ground from December till March?

3) A -NAO all winter long?

How often do those things happen here? And why would we expect that? If that's the expectation, it has already failed.

On the other hand, are we expecting wall to wall warmth? If so, why? If that's the expectation, that has also already failed.

So it's likely, those are not anyone's real expectations, because that would be absurdly unrealistic. Therefore, it's likely that the majority of expectations are for some cold and snow and some mild periods as well -- a much more reasonable expectation.

At this time, there is nothing to suggest that expectation will fail this winter. Not one thing. Zero. The current pattern isn't great for snow. Sure, ok. But that doesn't mean it can't. Many winter storms have occurred in patterns that aren't great for snow.

It would be awesome to have a great pattern set up. But many great patterns have underperformed too. Still, I think we'd all take our chances with a great pattern. But even if we don't get it, there is a lot of cold around. This is the very kind of year when a not so great pattern has a decent shot of producing something. And it's likely we won't see it coming more that a couple/few days in advance.

It's easy to be negative based on how the last couple of years have gone. But I have seen nothing to diminish my optimism for this winter. I'm not even writing the rest of the month off. We have a long way to go yet. Just enjoy the ride.

 

CR,

 Nice post! However, since my stats were mentioned, I just want to clarify a technical detail: more than 90% of liquid equivalent precip. AMOUNTS in Dec.-Mar. in ATL and RDU are plain rain on average. However, I'm educatedly guessing that less than 90% of EVENTS are purely rain, especially in RDU, since a number of events have a small amount of wintry precip. at the start and/or the end that hardly add up in the rain equivalent bucket. Heck, it could be something like only 85% or even as low as ~80% for all I know. Would it be shocking for me to find out that 20% of precip. events in DJFM at RDU have at least a little wintry precip? Actually, no. I haven't analyzed it that way to know since it would be hard. I speculate that another reason for the less than 10% of total amounts being wintry is my educated guess that a larger portion of the wintry precip. is falling lightly vs. the non-wintry. Examples: think about the hours of flurries or light CAD related ZR. Actually, heavy rain can disrupt the ZR if it brings down too much warmth from above. Also, doesn't colder air hold less water, meaning less hourly precip. potential on average?

 

Edit: I should add that Atlantans have little to complain about when considering that prior to the last 2 winters they got THREE winters in a row with a major snow, a very rare event! Last time that happened: 1892-3 through 1894-5 though there were actually FOUR majors in those three winters and 3 of the 4 were significantly heavier snows! Also, official measurements since ~1930 have been at the airport south of town. Had they after 1930 been in town like before, there may very well have been another three winters in a row of major snows at some point though I wouldn't bet on it.

[Cold Rain]

CR,

Nice post! However, since my stats were mentioned, I just want to clarify a technical detail: more than 90% of liquid equivalent precip. AMOUNTS in Dec.-Mar. in ATL and RDU are plain rain on average. However, I'm educatedly guessing that less than 90% of EVENTS are purely rain, especially in RDU, since a number of events have a small amount of wintry precip. at the start and/or the end that hardly add up in the rain equivalent bucket. Heck, it could be something like only 85% or even as low as ~80% for all I know. Would it be shocking for me to find out that 20% of precip. events in DJFM at RDU have at least a little wintry precip? Actually, no. I haven't analyzed it that way to know since it would be hard. I speculate that another reason for the less than 10% of total amounts being wintry is my educated guess that a larger portion of the wintry precip. is falling lightly vs. the non-wintry. Examples: think about the hours of flurries or light CAD related ZR. Actually, heavy rain can disrupt the ZR if it brings down too much warmth from above. Also, doesn't colder air hold less water, meaning less hourly precip. potential on average?

Edit: I should add that Atlantans have little to complain about when considering that prior to the last 2 winters they got THREE winters in a row with a major snow, a very rare event! Last time that happened: 1892-3 through 1894-5 though there were actually FOUR majors in those three winters!

Ah, gotcha. Sorry to misrepresent. Even if the percentage of actual "events" containing some frozen precip is as much as 20%, the overwhelming majority of events would still be rain. And it would be an even smaller percentage if we narrowed it down to major winter wx events. In the end, it still supports the conclusion that tempering one's is both wise and warranted as you have said.