Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[burgertime]

12z GFS is pretty close to the 6z run... Not bad at all

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[pcbjr]

12z GFS is pretty close to the 6z run... Not bad at all

 

It's a full 10 degrees warmer for lows in week two than the 6Z run down here

[burgertime]

12z GFS is pretty close to the 6z run... Not bad at all

 

It's a full 10 degrees warmer for lows in week two than the 6Z run down here

You floridians are used to it!

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[franklin NCwx]

Much better look on the GEFS for days 10-15 mean trough looks to be centered in the east along with some west coast ridging. There are also heights building over the AO region.

[pcbjr]

You floridians are used to it!

 

 

 

10 months out of the year ....

 

We are and have been running well above normal all fall. Only one freeze so far; usually by now we've had more than a few (sure - it'll get into the high 50's low 60's even after a 25 degree night), but also by now, just for sake of comparison, I should have burned a dozen fires; I haven't even opened the flue (remember - this is not Miami!).

[Lookout]

Man it sure is getting old seeing high pressure after high pressure sliding into the northeast  for what seems like every few days while giving the mid atlantic  wintery weather or threats of it with every system. It seemed like in the past if there was high pressure in the general vicinity of new england or the mid atlantic, the cad areas  at least had a threat of something. But aside from a little in nc, there hasn't been anything to show for all those highs.

 

It's also maddening to keep seeing real arctic airmass after arctic airmass dominating much of the country but never getting  south of TN and NC. And this morning model runs just show more of the same...cold air dives south into the plains and heads east, "dries up", or hits a brick wall. Ugh.

[rduwx]

Man it sure is getting old seeing high pressure after high pressure sliding into the northeast  for what seems like every few days while giving the mid atlantic  wintery weather or threats of it with every system. It seemed like in the past if there was high pressure in the general vicinity of new england or the mid atlantic, the cad areas  at least had a threat of something. But aside from a little in nc, there hasn't been anything to show for all those highs.

 

It's also maddening to keep seeing real arctic airmass after arctic airmass dominating much of the country but never getting  south of TN and NC. And this morning model runs just show more of the same...cold air dives south into the plains and heads east, "dries up", or hits a brick wall. Ugh.

 

Agree Lookout...I'm also tired of seeing cutter after cutter on the models.

[J.C.]

Man it sure is getting old seeing high pressure after high pressure sliding into the northeast  for what seems like every few days while giving the mid atlantic  wintery weather or threats of it with every system. It seemed like in the past if there was high pressure in the general vicinity of new england or the mid atlantic, the cad areas  at least had a threat of something. But aside from a little in nc, there hasn't been anything to show for all those highs.

 

It's also maddening to keep seeing real arctic airmass after arctic airmass dominating much of the country but never getting  south of TN and NC. And this morning model runs just show more of the same...cold air dives south into the plains and heads east, "dries up", or hits a brick wall. Ugh.

 

Couldn't agree more.  There is a nice chunk of cold air sliding north of us early next week, then ten days out highs are subfreezing all the way down to Texas again.  

[NEGa]

Man it sure is getting old seeing high pressure after high pressure sliding into the northeast  for what seems like every few days while giving the mid atlantic  wintery weather or threats of it with every system. It seemed like in the past if there was high pressure in the general vicinity of new england or the mid atlantic, the cad areas  at least had a threat of something. But aside from a little in nc, there hasn't been anything to show for all those highs.

 

It's also maddening to keep seeing real arctic airmass after arctic airmass dominating much of the country but never getting  south of TN and NC. And this morning model runs just show more of the same...cold air dives south into the plains and heads east, "dries up", or hits a brick wall. Ugh.

 

ditto. i was optimistic initially, esp with a little ice before thanksgiving. was hoping this was finally the year of the return of the cad lol. getting old with the 7-10 day potential that ends up nada.  obviously not putting any faith any the models past a few days.  of course, the upshot is for the most part the warm ups also arent verifying

 

i dont know what has changed but seems like the days of low dewpoints and temps down through ne ga and into ne atlanta area are a thing of the past

[GaWx]

Ironically, the first GFS release after the Great Schism gives both the TN Valley and all of NC a sig. to major snowstorm 12/27-8. Time to reunite lol.

[NCCatawba]

**I give permission to make the thread the night before Christmas, no sooner.**

 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

**I give permission to make the thread the night before Christmas, no sooner.**

 

I'd take that this and any Christmas.

[Chattownsnow]

18z GFS you can forget about the cold air before Christmas though.

[Jaguars]

18z GFS you can forget about the cold air before Christmas though.

Yeah southern stream takes over. Not gonna let one run worry me though.

Now if 0z and 6z build on it that's another story.

[superjames1992]

Happy Hour delivers!  Looks like rain-to-snow way out in fantasy land. 

[Jon]

Happy Hour delivers!  Looks like rain-to-snow way out in fantasy land. 

haha it was only a matter of time before the gfs spit out a clown map for this time frame, it's out of reach of the OP euro or I guarantee it would have shown something. It has been showing up on the control for several runs, well, the mslp anomaly anyway. Book. It.

[DaculaWeather]

Here in Atlanta, they think we're just going to reach normals by the end of next week. No talk of any torch.

 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY
THEN BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Hey, everybody else can be looking for miracles and 1 in 1000 shots. I'll be the guy over here grounded in reality .

What I've seen the past two days is there is going to be an extreme warm shot, one of the warmest we've ever seen in the history of record keeping at KCLT for this time of the month. That's followed by a 1 day cold shot which quickly moderates to normal or slightly above for a day or two then we go right back to +5 to +10 at the 850 level. There's basically no sign of any pattern change coming in the next 3 weeks. This December is pretty much like everybody had predicted before the winter began.

 

     CLT has really made up some ground from last week's warm weather. The monthly average continues to drop and it's now down to 49 degrees. That's not even factoring in today's -8 degree departure. This morning's low of 18 degrees was quite cold. The predictions of a warm December with an average of >50 degrees are in jeopardy.

[Cold Rain]

**I give permission to make the thread the night before Christmas, no sooner.**

Ok, Wilkes. Sounds good.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

**I give permission to make the thread the night before Christmas, no sooner.**

 

 

 

Thanks, the entire southeast forum was wondering when you would allow them to start a thread on this.

[NCSNOW]

November 12 - December 12: North Carolina locations are running -2 to -4 departure from normal temp wise:

 

The following is in the main thread from wxrisk; good read.

 

 

There are  TWO key  features  driving the overall pattern  and BOTH of them are in  the northern Pacific.  and for those who cannot Admit they  totally misread  the pattern and the data ...  it   has  NOTHING     to  do with the + AO and + NAO

 

 

 

 

1.    One is  the   Omega BLOCK   (shaped like the Greek letter omega) which has developed between Alaska and eastern Siberia.  This feature in the weather business is refer to as the  Negative phase of the  WPO  (-WPO).  

 

 

2.    The other feature is the Alaska   ridge    (which is known in the weather business as the  Negative phase  of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation  of
 -EPO)..  This is not something new. The data is overwhelming that when these two features are strongly negative the pattern is quite cold over much of the country but especially east the Rockies.  For reasons that I cannot explain  some of     forecasters  ignored these key parts of the weather pattern. 

 

 

These two images show that these features ... the -WPO and the -EPO… are  NOT going to break down or go away anytime soon.  This first image shows a huge pool of very warm water temperatures relative to normal in the gulf Alaska and the Northern Pacific Ocean.  It is this very large and very warm pool of ocean where temperatures which is feeding and locking into  the two features keeping the cold pattern in place  ...  the -WPO and the -EPO.

 

 

In addition if you look at the trend with the regard  to the ocean where temperatures ...  If anything the ward temperatures in the Northern Pacific Ocean are actually increasing !!!

 

Thus it can be argued that unless this large pool of except we warm ocean where temperatures breaks down or weekends are dissipates the current cold pattern for the central and eastern  US  will remain in place.

Attached Images

• 

[BIG FROSTY]

 

November 12 - December 12: North Carolina locations are running -2 to -4 departure from normal temp wise:

 

The following is in the main thread from wxrisk; good read.

 

 

 

Yes read that this morning, but it still not worth a crap for us if you want snow? Something has got to shift things east few hundred miles or we will be here in same shape a month from now... Now northern Va. on north it's been great pattern but not for us. IMO  being below normal in temp is one key but you have got to have storm track to our south if we ever going to get a winter storm.... I sure hope the pattern shifts east a tad? before March    I'm a disgruntled snowman in case you can't tell.   lol

[jburns]

Yes read that this morning, but it still not worth a crap for us if you want snow? Something has got to shift things east few hundred miles or we will be here in same shape a month from now... Now northern Va. on north it's been great pattern but not for us. IMO  being below normal in temp is one key but you have got to have storm track to our south if we ever going to get a winter storm.... I sure hope the pattern shifts east a tad? before March    I'm a disgruntled snowman in case you can't tell.   lol

 

Never-the-less, DT expects you to remain on aleet.

[WeatherNC]

Starting to see heights that would at-least be semi-conducive for SE winter wx on the GFS, big question is does the PV (lowest heights in the NH) lock in to Canada or does it split and a piece retrograde to the Norwegian / Greenland Sea.  12z EC ens mean would argue the vortex splits with the stronger lobe cutting near iceland, Op agrees, GFS too.  Unsure at this point whether this is just perturbation in the models, as the pattern post Christmas could be volatile,  eastern US setting up for a cold-carved out period possibly beyond day 10.

[Shawn]

00z GFS = ouch.  Horrible ridge around Christmas.

[DaculaWeather]

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

...LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...

.BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIVE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL STRENGTHEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS.

NCZ033-048>052-058-141600-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0023.131215T0500Z-131215T1700Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE
401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
  NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

* HAZARDS...ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES MAKING ROADS AND
  SIDEWALKS SLIPPERY. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES ARE
  ESPECIALLY LIKELY TO ICE OVER.

* TIMING...ICE AND SNOW ARE MOST LIKELY FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
  THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY. ROADS
  MAY REMAIN ICY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY IN SOME PLACES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...AND A TRACE OF
  SNOW.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON ROADWAYS AND
  SIDEWALKS. DRIVE OR WALK OUTSIDE WITH EXTRA CAUTION SUNDAY
  MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
  ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.

* VISIBILITY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FALLING OR
  BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A
MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

[Poimen]

Actually, the 0Z GFS turns much of the nation, including the SE, cold/cool for Christmas and remains cold thereafter (of course that is in dream land). But the turn to cool at Christmas is consistent with previous days.

[Cold Rain]

LR GFS after 300hrs looks ok, but other than that, everything else pretty much looks the same as yesterday.

[Southern Track]

Can't post in my phone, but the PNA looks to finally get neutral to slightly positive in the future. Of course, according to today's charts.

[DaculaWeather]

This mornings runs are not encouraging. 

Here's yesterday's run

 

 

 

 

And here is today.