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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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Noted. My bad.Thanks and hope for the best for you in N FL and others. We'll see. But like I said, even if it doesn't slide east, this is actually a great setup for areas, say, near Memphis/Tupelo (maybe as far east as Nashville) and west of there.

It is a great setup for some areas, just not mby  :P     I keep telling my family in Ohio this is the year I should visit during the winter  :lol:

 

Yes it is much easier to get cold weather into Dallas vs the SE.  

Imagine that  :lol:    :hug: 

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any one paying att too the euro weeklies, beware every run it has showed a torch for the se. the weeklies has performed poorly this winter so far ... i think the sad part so far, is how bad the euro has handled the pattern. i think the gfs has kicked it's butt over all.

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I agree...Its really an interesting spot on the map for weather.  So is the SE....I must say though, the Blue Northers' were always awesome to witness though.  However, nothing beats a good CAD

  

Same goes for warm weather!

. I lived in Plano (north side of Dallas) for 5 years- I will 100 percent agree with this. The storms during the spring and summer are fascinating (nothing really like this in nc/sc, except at the coast), and the temperature extremes are pretty phenomenal- you will see 80 in jan./feb. there with a warm sw wind- it is actually common
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Euro is delaying the cold until somewhere after 240. If you want to wishcast than wish away on the 6z as it has the best look of any run this winter for snow in parts of the SE. Cold air in with little impulses coming through. 

That(Euro) would kind of match up with the GFS this morning showing the cold coming through on the 23rd. Not sure what to think about the LR. It amazes me that we are even getting the opportunities for cold when the indices are so bad.  

 

6z GFS does have some potential. Christmas Day:

 

gfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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DT is back...again...in all his glory. Go check out the AO thread in the main forum. He makes some good points, in typical DT fashion. I'm afraid, however, he's going to end up being wrong about the overall state of the AO for the winter. It may not matter, though.

Ya the EPO  is driving the pattern and looks to for the foreseeable future. I f we can get a slight positive PNA I think we can see some major cold here in the SE.

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DT is back...again...in all his glory. Go check out the AO thread in the main forum. He makes some good points, in typical DT fashion. I'm afraid, however, he's going to end up being wrong about the overall state of the AO for the winter. It may not matter, though.

I don't think he will last very long on the board this year either.  You can't just throw out insults and expletives like he does and not be held accountable.  It's pretty sad that he can't just stick to the weather and forecasting, because he has a lot of knowledge that many would love to learn from.  Oh well, I guess I'll try to overlook his bad traits. 

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Boy, I'm glad the EPO and the WPO are in the state they are, since the NAO looks to head more in the positive range, the PNA is still hovering below water, and of course everyone knows where the AO is.

 

Yep, the AO continues to look strongly positive for the foreseeable future. The NAO looks to remain positive and the -PNA looks to rise slowly to neutral/positive by the end. Basically, you can probably put this on #brickbot autorepeat for a while.

The CFS continues its turn-around from a few days ago, indicating colder conditions across the eastern US, including the SE, for January. Precip probabilities show average to maybe slightly above average conditions for our area.

Most modeling continues to show variability in the T-10 time frame with a trend toward cold bleeding eastward after that. But we're not talking about artery-type bleeding. This is more like finger prick bleeding.

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Not so on the GFS. According to Robert, the Euro hasn't done too well this fall.

 

06zgfs500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif?ts=201

 

That's the best look we get this winter I believe.  +AO/NAO, but with a nice ridge in the west in the right position with a split flow.  If we get something, I think that's how we get it.....at some point this season.

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The chances are looking pretty good that we warm/torch days 8-10, then hopefully cool for Christmas.

 

Yeah, the ensembles have been consistent in spiking a ridge into the Gulf of Alaska and dropping a trough in the west in the Dec 19-22 timeframe, but also consistent thereafter with the ridging progressing east and the above normal heights working into the west coast.  That's a long ways out with modeling, but if it holds, it would setup a bit colder pattern Christmas week.  Not a fan of the +NAO though.

 

This is surface temperature anomalies on the 06z GFS Ensemble, 5 day average for Dec23-28:

 

LOGfGV7.png

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I think after a brief warmup next week the fun will really begin the week of Christmas.

 

The Swami has spoken!

 

I am somewhat hopeful myself that we can move into a more favorable regime for cold/snow in the SE after Christmas. This fits well with climo too, as that is usually the time frame in which the lowlands of the SE receive the first snow.

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The Swami has spoken!

I am somewhat hopeful myself that we can move into a more favorable regime for cold/snow in the SE after Christmas. This fits well with climo too, as that is usually the time frame in which the lowlands of the SE receive the first snow.

Yeah local mets have always said that the very end of December/first of January is normally the coldest time of the winter for our area.

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Not sure who this guy is, but it is NC Piedmont Weather on facebook. Adds a little to the whole warm vs cold debate.

 

there will be a warm up a few days before this to the mid maybe upper 50's and with that this will push the temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for the 2-3 days before this and when relative to average the 8-14 day outlook may end up being slightly above average but that will not tell how cold it has been...The same thing with this past Summer which was the coolest I have ever seen or felt but relative to average the Summer ended up being about average which is only because the night-time lows were warmer than usual but the daytime highs were cooler than normal so it is kind of a catch 22 when it comes to predicting the temperature outlooks as NOAA does...

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