Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

He forgot to say for....Arkansas, west TN into VA. They'll probably do ok with storms going west of the Apps, very close to the gradient point of the warm/cold. I don't see where the pattern we're in though benefits anybody east of the Apps. The the west coast ridge is too far to the west, and it put us in the way of the SE ridge. The trough is just in the wrong place to get REAL cold. Maybe we "bleed" a bit below normal but nothing enough to help us with a storm IMO.

Bingo. Nonthing I've seen/heard the last two days on the models is any different that what we've seen the last two weeks.

Probably time to step back and wait for ridging to to show up near greenland. Until then we're in a shampoo pattern, rinse and repeat. Cutter, Miller B, cutter, etc.

The overnight runs seemed to progress the pattern forward into a more favorable ridge/tough alignment. The afternoon runs reverted back somewhat. We'll see. Overrunning could work out if good HP is up north. The source air is very, very cold. But if you get an actual organized system, it's going to cut or Miller B you in the progged pattern, like you said.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I don't think that was Robert.

 

It wasn't.  When I first signed up a long while back, I didn't realize Robert's was FoothillsWX.  To avoid further confusion, I went ahead and changed my display name.

[franklin NCwx]

The overnight runs seemed to progress the pattern forward into a more favorable ridge/tough alignment. The afternoon runs reverted back somewhat. We'll see. Overrunning could work out if good HP is up north. The source air is very, very cold. But if you get an actual organized system, it's going to cut or Miller B you in the progged pattern, like you said.

10 day op runs will turn you into brickbot, lets see what the ensembles say.

[Cold Rain]

10 day op runs will turn you into brickbot, lets see what the ensembles say.

Haha, yes they will.

[Brick Tamland]

10 day op runs will turn you into brickbot, lets see what the ensembles say.

 

Does not compute.

[tnweathernut]

I don't think that was Robert.

Sneaky, and thank you for the name change Blue Ridge.

 

I hope this upcoming Christmas week cold shot is aimed a little more east of the last one.  With no blocking to hold it in place, I hope we can at least get a well timed event to occur.

[tnweathernut]

12z Euro Ensembles looked kind of "meh" to me.  Discharge of air into the plains that never fully moves into the east, motherload appeared to stay in Canada.  There was a nice robust system in the Aleutians that briefly began pumping a western Ridge only to lose it later in days 8-10.  Wash, rinse, repeat OR models in "limbo" trying to pinpoint a pattern change? 

 

One thing that looks EXTREMEMLY stable (unfortunately) is the non-helping Atlantic with it's +NAO.  It's been almost as stable as the vortex of death in Alaska from the past two years.

[DaculaWeather]

Not a bad look at this distance:

 

[jburns]

Not a bad look at this distance:

 

 

Nice, but not everyone can afford a Wonder Bra.

[Tacoma]

Saw this from WxSouth on facebook. Hope it brings some snow with it, though.

 

The pattern is really about to lay down the hammer in the United States, and the coldest airmass in 3 or 4 years is probably going to grip the bulk of th.e country before it's over with (by Christmas).

 

I see no real end to the pattern of late October, November and now in December--cold, colder, Coldest. With storms to boot.

 

Let's hope there is some moisture to go with this cold air and we're not cold and dry.  Been burnt too many times with cold and dry and then wet and just a little to warm to snow.......its most of the time a cold rain.   

[jburns]

Let's hope there is some moisture to go with this cold air and we're not cold and dry.  Been burnt too many times with cold and dry and then wet and just a little to warm to snow.......its most of the time a cold rain.   

 

We are very often not included in those,"bulk of the country" type cold forecasts.

[Tacoma]

Nice, but not everyone can afford a Wonder Bra.

yes but we need the cold air to reach the east coast.  looks like its going to much due south to Texas more than southeast.  

[Tacoma]

You can tell when things aren't looking good for us when the board is this quiet.  oh well I think our time will come sooner than later.  

[pcbjr]

Not a bad look at this distance:

 

 

 

Slide it east 300 - 400 miles and we're in business.

[GaWx]

Not a bad look at this distance:

 

 

Folks,

This "wonder bra-ish" pattern as Burns labeled it looks to continue through all four weeks of the just released Euro weeklies, which have a ridge in/near the SE US. So, the good news is that people likely don't need to worry about a cold/largely dry pattern like 1976-7 (though I'd give anything to witness that again here in Savannah, where an extremely rare two measurable snowfalls occurred. Then again, that was during a weak Nino.). So, there looks to be a battle zone continuing nearby and at least close to normal precip. With that in mind and with some luck on the timing, there could be some wintry precip. in some areas.  Warmth looks to be closer to the coast. Also, as fritschy noted, slide the ridge a little east and the SE is in business for something significant.

 

Actually, this setup is probably best for people west of Stovepipe in TN and maybe N MS though I realize there's few active members from that area.

[DaculaWeather]

Even FFC seems very interested in their latest AFD:

 

BOTH MODELS SHOW A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING EVEN THIS EARLY GIVEN UNUSUAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.

[DaculaWeather]

You can see the battle zone...  and that massive high in the Atlantic. 

 

[Jaguars]

Die ridge, just die 

 

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[DaculaWeather]

Despite the fact that this isn't a classical NAO block, it's still a pretty hefty block. Not being in the classic NAO location would help to explain why the models haven't seen a -NAO coming, yet they still show a massive cold air dump. 

[pcbjr]

 

Also, as fritschy noted, slide the ridge a little east and the SE is in business for something significant.

 

 Echoed that same thought at post  #1190

[GaWx]

 Echoed that same thought at post  #1190

 

Noted. My bad.Thanks and hope for the best for you in N FL and others. We'll see. But like I said, even if it doesn't slide east, this is actually a great setup for areas, say, near Memphis/Tupelo (maybe as far east as Nashville) and west of there.

[pcbjr]

Noted. My bad.Thanks and hope for the best for you in N FL and others. We'll see. But like I said, even if it doesn't slide east, this is actually a great setup for areas, say, near Memphis/Tupelo (maybe as far east as Nashville) and west of there.

 No bad.

 

Thanks for the hope!

 

Maybe a road trip is in order ....

[DaculaWeather]

Here's what we need to watch. At hour 216 the GFS is showing a low forming over the Gulf, and starting a move NE. The freezing line is roughly where is was at for the last event. 

 

 

12 hours later, you have a 1005 low sitting on the NC/SC border. As it always seems to be the case here, timing of the cold with the strength and track of the low, could mean a nice winter weather event for someone.

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I think I'm moving to Texas. It's amazing how easy it is for them to get cold air.

[FallsLake]

I think I'm moving to Texas. It's amazing how easy it is for them to get cold air.

There are years when they get nothing and get greater warmth then we have experienced. It's the pattern. Someday (or year) it will change in our favor.

[Stovepipe]

Actually, this setup is probably best for people west of Stovepipe in TN and maybe N MS though I realize there's few active members from that area.

 

Ok, who farted in the wrong direction? 

[superjames1992]

I think I'm moving to Texas. It's amazing how easy it is for them to get cold air.

 

Dallas averages less snow than your area does.  Yes, they can get tremendous cold blasts, but they can also torch in extreme ways.

[Tacoma]

Here's what we need to watch. At hour 216 the GFS is showing a low forming over the Gulf, and starting a move NE. The freezing line is roughly where is was at for the last event. 

 

 

12 hours later, you have a 1005 low sitting on the NC/SC border. As it always seems to be the case here, timing of the cold with the strength and track of the low, could mean a nice winter weather event for someone.

 

we have to get the cold air moving southeast instead of due south.    

[FLO]

It's amazing that the longrange shows freezing temps except when it rains. Then its in the 40's.

[DixieBlizzard]

It's amazing that the longrange shows freezing temps except when it rains. Then its in the 40's.

 

Wash, rinse and repeat. You are sooooooo right...........