Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CFS on December 12: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Just my untrained, uneducated observation, but what we may be seeing in the models over the last few weeks is them trying to figure out a pattern that does not really have any staying power. Nothing to hold cold or warm into a particular area. The one thing that is present in NA is a ton of cold air. So, while those of us on the fringe (SE) tend to swing back and forth, those closer to the cold air source tend to lean more cold. Of course, this could change as it has nearly daily, but it appears as we get deeper into the month, that the cold may overwhelm a larger part of the country and even be deep and powerful enough to send a really good shot into the SE around Christmas. I guess the question would then become do the indices line up to hold it for awhile, or do we continue to swing back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Just my untrained, uneducated observation, but what we may be seeing in the models over the last few weeks is them trying to figure out a pattern that does not really have any staying power. Nothing to hold cold or warm into a particular area. The one thing that is present in NA is a ton of cold air. So, while those of us on the fringe (SE) tend to swing back and forth, those closer to the cold air source tend to lean more cold. Of course, this could change as it has nearly daily, but it appears as we get deeper into the month, that the cold may overwhelm a larger part of the country and even be deep and powerful enough to send a really good shot into the SE around Christmas. I guess the question would then become do the indices line up to hold it for awhile, or do we continue to swing back and forth. Unless we get a steady +PNA or some blocking, oscillations are favored, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks cold, very cold. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We keep seeing the warm-ups on the long range get less and less warm as we get closer. This week is pretty cold, and next week looks to warm up some, but once again has backed off from the 60s and looks more normal and in the 50s. And now looks like we could see some really good cold the week of Christmas. Just hope the moisture comes with it and we don't stay cold and dry. It does look interesting around Christmas at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We keep seeing the warm-ups on the long range get less and less warm as we get closer. This week is pretty cold, and next week looks to warm up some, but once again has backed off from the 60s and looks more normal and in the 50s. And now looks like we could see some really good cold the week of Christmas. Just hope the moisture comes with it and we don't stay cold and dry. It does look interesting around Christmas at this moment. The energy is definitely showing up all over the place for the same time period as the potential cold. As long as the cold does verify, I think the storm signals will get better as we approach the Christmas timeframe. I believe we still need some help to help lock this kind of weather in though. JB has us at -2 for Jan, and he's been deadly accurate this season especially for the SE ridge prediction. His November was just a tad too warm for us before he changed it up a bit though. He's pretty sure about a Christmas time cooldown for everyone in the United States. Now, if we can only get some sort of -NAO, it would be great to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 JB has us at -2 for Jan, and he's been deadly accurate this season especially for the SE ridge prediction. His November was just a tad too warm for us before he changed it up a bit though. He's pretty sure about a Christmas time cooldown for everyone in the United States. What is being modeled is pretty much "frigid", but here in the southeast we don't argue over the terms "frigid" and "torch"............er..........wait..........nevermind. It's going to be like pulling teeth to get a -NAO before January. or so it appears. If we can get the cold as modeled, it looks like the southern jet is going to assist with a possibility or two. Yes, it will take perfect timing, but with all the cold showing that would be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The energy is definitely showing up all over the place for the same time period as the potential cold. As long as the cold does verify, I think the storm signals will get better as we approach the Christmas timeframe. I believe we still need some help to help lock this kind of weather in though. JB has us at -2 for Jan, and he's been deadly accurate this season especially for the SE ridge prediction. His November was just a tad too warm for us before he changed it up a bit though. He's pretty sure about a Christmas time cooldown for everyone in the United States. Now, if we can only get some sort of -NAO, it would be great to work with. I think he has us normal for Jan. -2 for Feb.... I just went back and looked, unless I'm reading it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I disagree with those worrying about storm suppression if we get a direct discharge of arctic air. This isn't cold that's being delivered and held in by severe blocking on the Atlantic side. It's being driven and delivered by the projected strengthening -WPO -EPO. If we keep an active southern stream and If the cold air shown is real, I believe we will have an opportunity or two coming in the last 10 days of the month. We'd probably have to worry more about boundry layer temps and ice/zr more than suppression actually. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah, that right there. Those colors make my skin turn inside out. It's alive, but it's saying kill me At least it looks cold, but it's either -50, or -1.5, I can't be sure so I have to intuit, but it could cause me to freeze in mid stride, if I guess wrong, lol. T Yeah. I think that's the 0C line near Huntsville, with some -30s up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think he has us normal for Jan. -2 for Feb.... I just went back and looked, unless I'm reading it wrong? Going by his video from this morning. Pretty sure I saw -2 around here for "Jan". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Going by his video from this morning. Pretty sure I saw -2 around here for "Jan". Ok, I looked at his winter update from nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 JB did it and it got some talking last time so I might as well do it just for fun, here's the 276hr Euro EPS control mslp anomoly, showing what would be a low off the coast of NC around Santa time. Take it FWIW, there's not much else to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 JB did it and it got some talking last time so I might as well do it just for fun, here's the 276hr Euro EPS control mslp anomoly, showing what would be a low off the coast of NC around Santa time. Take it FWIW, there's not much else to it. That's pretty crazy. I hadn't looked at that frame yet.. for sure there would be some Wintry weather somewhere with it you would think. 1046 in the N. plains.. wtf man they are suffering with cold this year. There comes a point where it's too much.. and I bet if it doesn't let up they will think the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Of course the 12z GFS came back strong with the cold basically centered west of us through the period again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Of course the 12z GFS came back strong with the cold basically centered west of us through the period again. The GEFS by day 11/12 starts to show the cold sliding east some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It looks like there will be cold air and an active southern stream near the week of Christmas and into January. The likelihood of a major winter weather event is higher than normal. Determining where that will be is the million dollar question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GFS isn't that bad at the days leading up to 12/25... the southern low influences the initial trough axis but it there's more separation between the jets and the PV is a bit further south into Quebec, this would be a big deal here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GFS isn't that bad at the days leading up to 12/25... the southern low influences the initial trough axis but it there's more separation between the jets and the PV is a bit further south into Quebec, this would be a big deal here: I hate to beat a dead horse, but I don't know how the PV can stay far enough south for any length of time without blocking or a better ridge placement along the west coast. It'll just swing through and pull right back up and out again, allowing the storm track to lift north. But this is just the OP way out in lala land, so it's going to change again anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GEFS by day 11/12 starts to show the cold sliding east some. That's good. I can't see them, but it's good to hear that they're a bit more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I hate to beat a dead horse, but I don't know how the PV can stay far enough south for any length of time without blocking or a better ridge placement along the west coast. It'll just swing through and pull right back up and out again, allowing the storm track to lift north. But this is just the OP way out in lala land, so it's going to change again anyway. No you're right. It is sort of pointless to analyze anything in this range but, hey, it's all we have to hang our hat on right now. Until I see some real blocking pop up in the Atlantic, our chances of a significant winter storm are compromised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No you're right. It is sort of pointless to analyze anything in this range but, hey, it's all we have to hang our hat on right now. Until I see some real blocking pop up in the Atlantic, our chances of a significant winter storm are compromised. Hey, I'm with ya! I feel confident about no blocking for a while, but I also feel confident that the prog will change with the next run. It's fun to consider the possibilities, and with the magnitude of the cold air around this year (which was sorely missing last year), there will be possibilities, especially as we head deeper into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I love the super cold air on our side. However, there's no guarantee it will stick around. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Day 10 on the euro doesn't look terrible. Not great but it's not a dumpster fire either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Saw this from WxSouth on facebook. Hope it brings some snow with it, though. The pattern is really about to lay down the hammer in the United States, and the coldest airmass in 3 or 4 years is probably going to grip the bulk of th.e country before it's over with (by Christmas). I see no real end to the pattern of late October, November and now in December--cold, colder, Coldest. With storms to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Day 10 on the euro doesn't look terrible. Not great but it's not a dumpster fire either. Yeah, ridging out west is having a hard time pressing east toward the end of the run, keeping the trough axis west of the area, with a decent SE ridge hanging tough. Lots of nice high pressure to the north and lots of cold air around. Looks very familiar to what was originally progged for the event/non-event last weekend -- a nice overrunning event. Unfortunately, it evolved from overrunning into a storm/Miller B-type of a deal. This could turn out the same way or be totally different. Either way, not great, but not terrible, just like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Safe to cancel the torch thread I think. As the models have done pretty much all fall, over estimate the SE ridge and the warm temps. The models will have the SE ridge and warmth on there for a while then as time draws nigh, it just doesn't verify. Prepare for the ice box after this week into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Safe to cancel the torch thread I think. As the models have done pretty much all fall, over estimate the SE ridge and the warm temps. The models will have the SE ridge and warmth on there for a while then as time draws nigh, it just doesn't verify. Prepare for the ice box after this week into the new year. I can only prepare for the ice box if you promise a storm too, lol. I honestly don't see much different as far as possibilities go with this next shot of cold air (except perhaps a little further east on the trough). I think some in the Arkansas/TN Valley could score, perhaps a CAD event too, but without blocking it would be hard to not have temperature issues (at least at 850) should something come along. Robert, If the cold comes down as modeled, what is to keep systems suppressed so they don't Miller B us to death? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Saw this from WxSouth on facebook. Hope it brings some snow with it, though. The pattern is really about to lay down the hammer in the United States, and the coldest airmass in 3 or 4 years is probably going to grip the bulk of th.e country before it's over with (by Christmas). I see no real end to the pattern of late October, November and now in December--cold, colder, Coldest. With storms to boot. He forgot to say for....Arkansas, west TN into VA. They'll probably do ok with storms going west of the Apps, very close to the gradient point of the warm/cold. I don't see where the pattern we're in though benefits anybody east of the Apps. The the west coast ridge is too far to the west, and it put us in the way of the SE ridge. The trough is just in the wrong place to get REAL cold. Maybe we "bleed" a bit below normal but nothing enough to help us with a storm IMO. Yeah, ridging out west is having a hard time pressing east toward the end of the run, keeping the trough axis west of the area, with a decent SE ridge hanging tough. Lots of nice high pressure to the north and lots of cold air around. Looks very familiar to what was originally progged for the event/non-event last weekend -- a nice overrunning event. Unfortunately, it evolved from overrunning into a storm/Miller B-type of a deal. This could turn out the same way or be totally different. Either way, not great, but not terrible, just like you said. Bingo. Nonthing I've seen/heard the last two days on the models is any different that what we've seen the last two weeks. Probably time to step back and wait for ridging to to show up near greenland. Until then we're in a shampoo pattern, rinse and repeat. Cutter, Miller B, cutter, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I can only prepare for the ice box if you promise a storm too, lol. I honestly don't see much different as far as possibilities go with this next shot of cold air (except perhaps a little further east on the trough). I think some in the Arkansas/TN Valley could score, perhaps a CAD event too, but without blocking it would be hard to not have temperature issues (at least at 850) should something come along. Robert, If the cold comes down as modeled, what is to keep systems suppressed so they don't Miller B us to death? TIA I don't think that was Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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