Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

I do agree its a good push for those along the Gulf Coast...and for anybody to have any hopes on winter weather, you would rather the push be moderate. You don't want over-amplification (i.e. something that drives a cold front through Key West.)

The biggest thing I noticed on these model runs is that the boundary looks to take on an east-west orientation rather than SW-NE...a sign that the pig ridge is getting squashed more and more.

Arctic fronts stalling out in a east-west fashion to the south of the area is good.

[Carvers Gap]

If the Euro and GFS were to verify today, the above normal temps would be almost erased.  We already have a  +20 day at KTRI and  that will be tough to move to neutral.  I think what bothers me is people changing their forecasts right before the time frame before their forecast begins - so they won't be wrong.  Basically, they see they are going to have four days at +15(the rest of the month will be normal)...so you change to a warm forecast.  While statistically true, they could have potentially  missed the pattern for the month.  Now, it may just go warm.  It may go cold.  We have zero control over that.  I think nailing the pattern is more important than winning a numbers battle.  I can make a team w/ a losing record look great w/ stats.  But in my opinion, if you miss the pattern (and get the stats correct by playing a four day torch), you aren't forecasting weather.  The indices have not worked well this year, and they have not lately either.  What will be interesting is if the weather actually "bucks" the AO and NAO.  Not implausible.  But highly interesting.   

[dsaur]

I think the natural progression of things would argue for a more easterly trough setting up from the previous one, but I am not sure it will make a big difference overall for the Carolinas.  TN (middle and west), MS/AL could be a much different story, but in the end it could just be a major arctic blast pointed at Texas again, while never really getting to a point where it helps anyone east of the apps. 

 

I think that is the biggest possible option for this. Warm and wet out ahead of a major cold front and then cold cold cold (and probably dry) central plains/deep south into Texas, but modifying temperature wise as you head east.  In a nutshell, it looks like the setup for another glancing blow.

You got to like the look coming up if you are a Ga rain fan   To everything it's season.  I'll take the cold rain now, and complain about the lack of something frozen later When I'm actually missing out on something...if it comes to that. Tony

[dsaur]

Shoot, shoot, shoot ...

 

But before that it sure as heck looks wet, if you can even begin to trust the GFS out into fantasyland:

 

2013121118_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_252.gif

 

 

That little purple dot is basically my house .....

Please, sir, where are you pulling those maps from?  I'm color blind and that looks good to me, where many don't. I can't look at a Euro map, because it makes my brain peel.  I like the look of that style, and I like the look of that rain!!  You know it will come north, right, lol.  Tony

[Marion_NC_WX]

I know this may fall as old news to many but WeatherBell has some great stuff on their pay site...I joined today. With this afternoon's models shifting again towards a cold Christmas, I had to look around at the different stuff online and I am shocked that nobody even teased the Euro Ensembles and what they are showing...pretty good agreement between the Control and operational on how the cold evolves through Day 10...afterwards the Control turns to pure weather porn as it ejects southern energy which would make for a very interesting Christmas for parts of the Southeast/Mid-South.

[tnweathernut]

I know this may fall as old news to many but WeatherBell has some great stuff on their pay site...I joined today. With this afternoon's models shifting again towards a cold Christmas, I had to look around at the different stuff online and I am shocked that nobody even teased the Euro Ensembles and what they are showing...pretty good agreement between the Control and operational on how the cold evolves through Day 10...afterwards the Control turns to pure weather porn as it ejects southern energy which would make for a very interesting Christmas for parts of the Southeast/Mid-South.

Sounds plausible, hope we can reel in a better pattern, instead of watching it remain just off to our west.

I REALLY don't need another subscription, but your "tease" is tugging at me. The sources I already pay for do not offer much in the way of the euro. I was a weather bell subscriber last year though and just didn't like their map formats

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[pcbjr]

Please, sir, where are you pulling those maps from? 

Here's the link for my area: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KGNV#

 

Put in your own ICAO at the top (probably KATL), and then find the hour you want; scroll across and click on any item that you want (every other Oz is active, descending downward).

 

This is not active until about an hour after the official run completes.

 

Example here for 12/12 00Z - Total Precip:

 

For example, here's the picture you get when you click 12/12 0Z "Total Precip":

 

 

 

Another good view is:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 

Hope this helps!

 

Phil

[franklin NCwx]

Sounds plausible, hope we can reel in a better pattern, instead of watching it remain just off to our west.

I REALLY don't need another subscription, but your "tease" is tugging at me. The sources I already pay for do not offer much in the way of the euro. I was a weather bell subscriber last year though and just didn't like their map formats

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they gave much more this year including the weeklies.

[WeatherNC]

If the Euro and GFS were to verify today, the above normal temps would be almost erased.  We already have a  +20 day at KTRI and  that will be tough to move to neutral.  I think what bothers me is people changing their forecasts right before the time frame before their forecast begins - so they won't be wrong.  Basically, they see they are going to have four days at +15(the rest of the month will be normal)...so you change to a warm forecast.  While statistically true, they could have potentially  missed the pattern for the month.  Now, it may just go warm.  It may go cold.  We have zero control over that.  I think nailing the pattern is more important than winning a numbers battle.  I can make a team w/ a losing record look great w/ stats.  But in my opinion, if you miss the pattern (and get the stats correct by playing a four day torch), you aren't forecasting weather.  The indices have not worked well this year, and they have not lately either.  What will be interesting is if the weather actually "bucks" the AO and NAO.  Not implausible.  But highly interesting.   

 

You are looking much better than us off to the east days 7-10.  The long wave axis appears to carve out the central US, compared to CA/OR/WA/UT/NV like the guidance was showing yesterday.  Still, things could change, but with avg confidence the next dump looks centered in the Plains.  This could setup a fairly robust surface wave tracking from TX into the OH Valley, fantasy range, 228-240hrs like the EC shows, but not as intense.  The ATL ridge is displaced farther east than what the models showed a couple days ago, full blown SE torch seems unlikely.  Temps will avg slightly above for several days leading up to Christmas, ~18th 22nd, although we could be setting up for a pretty good look shortly thereafter.  CONUS is sandwiched in between ridging in the ATL and PAC day 10, no evidence of a N ATL block which is really keeping the PV from pinching off in E Canada, and the jet from coming down.  There is evidence of +H5 anoms near the pole same period, we will see how that evolves.  Best guess is the period between 12/22 and 12/31 ends up below avg w/ temps, more-so in the TN Valley, maybe slightly above in the Gulf Coast, southern MA below.  Precip chances will be +avg Dec climo for many, 23rd & 26th being focal points aside from the upcoming weak B transfer.

[Shawn]

Sounds plausible, hope we can reel in a better pattern, instead of watching it remain just off to our west.

I REALLY don't need another subscription, but your "tease" is tugging at me. The sources I already pay for do not offer much in the way of the euro. I was a weather bell subscriber last year though and just didn't like their map formats

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Their format isn't too bad.  I believe Ryan uses Grads to generate them with his own custom maps/counties (background maps) along with a nice set of colors.  The only thing I have noticed is the snowfall maps are way off. Many sites are off on snow from the Euro though.  I think it counts Sleet & ZR in the totals.  I asked him about it a cpl days ago but no response.

[HWY316wx]

To me the LR GFS looks like a classic deep shot of cold Canadian air mass chasing moisture.  I see the GOM open up for business late in the run, but with it comes the warmer temps nosing northward.  Long way off for sure.

 

Have not seen the EURO runs but call me crazy, the EURO and the Maple Leaf have been calling for winter storms 10+ days out so far this winter and nothing has materialized from them.  I just can't put a lot of stock in them so far.

 

Just my .02

[DixieBlizzard]

Arctic fronts stalling out in a east-west fashion to the south of the area is good.

 

Arctic air in place with overrunning precip. Just give me a nice, mid-range Miller A to run along that baby and a lot of the south would be in business.

[Wow]

0z GFS gets progressively colder. By the LR the whole nation is in the icebox.  A little more evidence of potential Atlantic blocking pattern building by Christmas and beyond. Pacific looks awesome with split flow establishing.  I'd like to check this one out and run with it.

 

[GaWx]

 Folks,

 If "Wow' were up, I bet he'd post the 10 day 0Z Euro map, which shows no sign of a return of the dreaded torch with the ridge off of the SE coast having exited stage right and Arctic air coming on down as Johnny Olsen used to say.

[Marion_NC_WX]

 Folks,

 If "Wow' were up, I bet he'd post the 10 day 0Z Euro map, which shows no sign of a return of the dreaded torch with the ridge off of the SE coast having exited stage right and Arctic air coming on down as Johnny Olsen used to say.

 

For some reason, I am still awake

 

[dsaur]

Yeah, that right there.  Those colors make my skin turn inside out.  It's alive, but it's saying kill me    At least it looks cold, but it's either -50, or -1.5, I can't be sure so I have to intuit, but it could cause me to freeze in mid stride, if I guess wrong, lol.  T

[BullCityWx]

Control member of the Euro Enemble suite is bone chilling cold in the LR.

[tnweathernut]

Control member of the Euro Enemble suite is bone chilling cold in the LR.

What does it show as far as temps? 20s for highs, teens? Single digit lows?

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[POWERSTROKE]

Where the torch go? Hmmmmm getting interesting

[franklin NCwx]

Control member of the Euro Enemble suite is bone chilling cold in the LR.

Gefs look pretty good in the lr.

[franklin NCwx]

Where the torch go? Hmmmmm getting interesting

looks like two maybe three days above normal.

[BullCityWx]

What does it show as far as temps? 20s for highs, teens? Single digit lows?

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At 7PM on Christmas Eve, the entire state of tennessee is in the teens with the tri cities at 12 or below. 

[strongwxnc]

Some of the GFS runs from two days ago were also showing these types of temps..

 

 

At 7PM on Christmas Eve, the entire state of tennessee is in the teens with the tri cities at 12 or below. 

[tarheelwx]

How about precip? 

TW

[jaxjagman]

What does it show as far as temps? 20s for highs, teens? Single digit lows?

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Cold,for around Nashville it's showing  starting H256 it's below freezing through out h360.Christmas eve looks the coldest around 4 for the low here

[FLweather]

Gefs look pretty good in the lr.

 

 

At 7PM on Christmas Eve, the entire state of tennessee is in the teens with the tri cities at 12 or below. 

 

 

FWIW GFS is in lala land but still points to cold and moisture come Christmas eve.

 

[Stovepipe]

Yeah, that right there.  Those colors make my skin turn inside out.  It's alive, but it's saying kill me    At least it looks cold, but it's either -50, or -1.5, I can't be sure so I have to intuit, but it could cause me to freeze in mid stride, if I guess wrong, lol.  T

 

Agreed, that is a terrible choice of color scheme.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the Euro monthly run shows tonight.

[Marion_NC_WX]

How about precip? 

TW

 

 

This is overwhelming cold...freezing line goes to the Gulf and across the Northern Florida so everything would be suppressed way south.

[metalicwx366]

It will be interesting to if we actually get this cold the models are showing. Clearly there is something that is dominating over the PNA, NAO and AO this year, either the EPO or the WPO, if we do get this cold the models are advertising.

Anyway, 4+SD AO coming up with the NAO staying in the positive territory and PNA remaining negative.

[Cold Rain]

Nice turn-around in the models in the LR. Indexes still look bad: The AO looks to stay positive to strongly positive, the NAO looks to stay positive, and the PNA looks to remain negative, though trending toward neutral/positive late in the period. Both the GFS and Euro now bring colder weather back after a short respite of generally near normal conditions (with periods of both below and above normal). The CFS has totally flipped from showing a January torch (below) to showing a January freeze (next post). Weeks 1-4 look to feature generally average to above average precip. Week 1 shows below average temps and Weeks 3-4 generally look above average.

The theme is continued variability with a lean toward more steady cold later in the month. There will continue to be precipitation events that, for now, follow the warm up, rain, cool down pattern. These will need to be watched with cold nearby, as some front-end frozen precip might occur in the favored damming areas. Of course, a very well-timed event changes everything.

CFS on December 9: