JoMo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The trough on the 00z Euro was just farther west. The 12z run it was farther east. At the end of the run at h240, Montana is maxing out the weatherbell scale at -48 degrees below normal for a 2m temp. (and it's pretty cold in Montana in December normally probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Weathernut beat me to it, but (hopefully, the pattern will progress): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 #brickbot Ha! Ha! couldn't help myself, It's get's to darn frustrating.. Merry Christmas you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ha! Ha! couldn't help myself, It's get's to darn frustrating.. Merry Christmas you You too sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The trough on the 00z Euro was just farther west. The 12z run it was farther east. At the end of the run at h240, Montana is maxing out the weatherbell scale at -48 degrees below normal for a 2m temp. (and it's pretty cold in Montana in December normally probably) Like the mini-trend. Wow 48 below normal in Montana, I imagine your approaching 40 below depending on the locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We need moisture with the cold... When and if we get real cold there will be no moisture around! But now we can't time a system right to save our butts!!!! cold/dry warm/wet etc....... Fropa! Swoosh.... To be fair CR, you responded to the posted model with the exact same observation Frosty did, just with more meterological sarcasm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the big cold will shift east before christmas relax people, am sure we will get our's .http://t.co/g9aLstH1ZE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the big cold will shift east before christmas relax people, am sure we will get our's .http://t.co/g9aLstH1ZE JB is not a reason....sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 To be fair CR, you responded to the posted model with the exact same observation Frosty did, just with more meterological sarcasm... Haha! I was wondering if anyone would notice. Steve might squeeze a little snow out of it, but it'll probably be rain then cold over in my neck of the woods. At least it looks like the cold is decidedly inbound, if that map is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 JB is not a reason....sorry. He's going to push it east with his big muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 JB is not a reason....sorry.looks like the gefs to me. What is the cause of the ridge over Scandinavia? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the big cold will shift east before christmas relax people, am sure we will get our's .http://t.co/g9aLstH1ZE I think the natural progression of things would argue for a more easterly trough setting up from the previous one, but I am not sure it will make a big difference overall for the Carolinas. TN (middle and west), MS/AL could be a much different story, but in the end it could just be a major arctic blast pointed at Texas again, while never really getting to a point where it helps anyone east of the apps. I think that is the biggest possible option for this. Warm and wet out ahead of a major cold front and then cold cold cold (and probably dry) central plains/deep south into Texas, but modifying temperature wise as you head east. In a nutshell, it looks like the setup for another glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I know it's 10+ days away, but the cold shot on the way as on the models now looks a smidge more east than the last one, and I think it will make it into the SE this time , and brick , the muscles pushing the cold air east, was the funniest thing you've said in along time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 JB is not a reason....sorry. it has nothing too do with jb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 JB is not a reason....sorry. We dont need no reasons 'round here no more. We got wishin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 CPC, once again, offers no hope: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ Won't bore you with maps or extracts. Open the link, if you are so inclined, and have your Rolaids ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 CPC, once again, offers no hope: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ Won't bore you with maps or extracts. Open the link, if you are so inclined, and have your Rolaids ready \ Maps would could kind of imply the cold infiltrates the upper great plains and then just sits there. I'm always skeptical of these, they seem to come around only after the models have locked on to a steady pattern look rather than indicate what's on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Maps would could kind of imply the cold infiltrates the upper great plains and then just sits there. I'm always skeptical of these, they seem to come around only after the models have locked on to a steady pattern look rather than indicate what's on the way. I'm always skeptical of CPC too in the long range, (reason for no maps or cut and paste of the discussion), but CPC is a factor for the prognostication equation; I'm looking for some factor that might get the deep SE folks a bit excited - just not seeing it (yet). Just sharing what I see. :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Weathernut beat me to it, but (hopefully, the pattern will progress): Definitely not wintery for us, but good thing it's mid-Dec and not mid-Jan :-). There is hints on the 12z Euro Ens that the cold does return by Xmas but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Weathernut beat me to it, but (hopefully, the pattern will progress): Believe it or not I'd be happy about that map if I was in the SE, it will get warm obviously, but thats one helluva arctic blast behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Believe it or not I'd be happy about that map if I was in the SE, it will get warm obviously, but thats one helluva arctic blast behind it. Where are you located? I'm guessing VA? Yeah, looks to get a little nippy behind the front. Staying power looks weak, but hey, beggers can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS and Euro look great in the LR....this run. I have a fear we may be back to last year just slightly better. Go re read the December thread. Euro and GFS were constantly showing a pattern change sometimes with huge arctic outbreaks only for it to never happen. I want to see these changes going in at about 140 hrs and last until near the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS and Euro look great in the LR....this run. I have a fear we may be back to last year just slightly better. Go re read the December thread. Euro and GFS were constantly showing a pattern change sometimes with huge arctic outbreaks only for it to never happen. I want to see these changes going in at about 140 hrs and last until near the end of the run. I'm with you. I need to see the whites of it's eyes before I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm with you. I need to see the whites of it's eyes before I believe it. This isn't last winter or the one before that. A lot of the US is already covered in snow and the cold that has been in the US as well. Yes we have missed the action in the SE so far but it is early .Not really even winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This isn't last winter or the one before that. A lot of the US is already covered in snow and the cold that has been in the US as well. Yes we have missed the action in the SE so far but it is early .Not really even winter yet. I agree. It's about as polar opposite as it can be so far this year as we head toward winter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 FWIW...18z GFS lays down a nice 850mb temp gradient roughly along I-20 with our next possible arctic plunge...something that to me would indicate that our pesky SE ridge won't be as pesky next time around. It won't be a total dive bomb of cold air to Florida but it would be plenty cold enough for those areas where any winter weather would be more likely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It won't be a total dive bomb of cold air to Florida but ... Shoot, shoot, shoot ... But before that it sure as heck looks wet, if you can even begin to trust the GFS out into fantasyland: That little purple dot is basically my house ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I like the trends into xmas eve / xmas. Heading in the right direction. Where we are by the weekend as long term melts into medium will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's a nice little push Marion. Boundary along the GOM of 0C readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's a nice little push Marion. Boundary along the GOM of 0C readings. I do agree its a good push for those along the Gulf Coast...and for anybody to have any hopes on winter weather, you would rather the push be moderate. You don't want over-amplification (i.e. something that drives a cold front through Key West.) The biggest thing I noticed on these model runs is that the boundary looks to take on an east-west orientation rather than SW-NE...a sign that the pig ridge is getting squashed more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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