Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Batman]

MBY is up 5 for Dec. I was down about 4 for Nov. If you take three very warm days last week and say we have torched, you could also take three very cold days Thanksgiving week and say we have been in the deep freeze! Departure of 4 for 30 days seems more impressive than a departure of 5 for 10 days. I have decided that the term "torch" for us is really a state of mind. I think to some, if it is too cold to snow, it must be a "torch". Don't know how else to justify our current pattern as a torch. I have seen way to many Decembers that truly were more closely what I would consider a "torch". Day after day of sunny and 60s with no cold air anywhere nearby.

 

Don't want to get into defending JB about CFSV2 snow cover maps, but I don't think his main point is NC, SC, or GA getting snow for Christmas. I suspect, again he is speaking to his main customer base which is MA and NE. He is sounding the drums that he thinks the pattern they are in will continue. The concern here is will we get into the action. I think the jury is still out. If I were betting, I would say it is more likely to happen after Jan 1. Still, sounding the drums for a "torch"  in the SE appears to me to be about as wise as sounding the drums for deep freeze at this point.

[Batman]

Yea, I hate those maps, you might as well toss a coin. 

The problem so far this winter is that the ENSO is about neutral, so we have to rely on blocking to get us the cold air. And since the teleconnections forecast aren't very good at all, you're going to see constant fluctuations in the extended.  

Good post! Very true. Everyone should keep this in mind when looking at models, teleconnections, and other indices each day.

[tnweathernut]

I know we have had an unusually strong Scandanavian Ridge and an unusually strong -WPO -EPO.  One argues torch, the other argues cooler/cold.  So far the Pacific has been dominating the pattern for NA, but my question is this:

 

1.  Do we need a reset in the Pacific to dislodge the Scandanavian Ridge?

 

2.  If we dislodge the Scandanavian ridge, will we also likely lose the positive Pacific influence?

[Bevo]

I know we have had an unusually strong Scandanavian Ridge and an unusually strong -WPO -EPO.  One argues torch, the other argues cooler/cold.  So far the Pacific has been dominating the pattern for NA, but my question is this:

 

1.  Do we need a reset in the Pacific to dislodge the Scandanavian Ridge?

 

2.  If we dislodge the Scandanavian ridge, will we also likely lose the positive Pacific influence?

 

I think that is a fantastic question.  IMO the PAC has dominated our last two (and now three so far) winters.  I would love to see some input on this as well.

[Met1985]

I think that is a fantastic question.  IMO the PAC has dominated our last two (and now three so far) winters.  I would love to see some input on this as wellI

I agree with this. The Pac has been driving our weather for way to long. Seems like we will never get any good blocking or it comes to late.

[Jon]

I know we have had an unusually strong Scandanavian Ridge and an unusually strong -WPO -EPO.  One argues torch, the other argues cooler/cold.  So far the Pacific has been dominating the pattern for NA, but my question is this:

 

1.  Do we need a reset in the Pacific to dislodge the Scandanavian Ridge?

 

2.  If we dislodge the Scandanavian ridge, will we also likely lose the positive Pacific influence?

Good questions, I have no clue...but I've been thinking, the ridge must be dislodged that's a fact whether it retrogrades over greenland forming a -NAO or not, it can't stay. At the end of the euro control run as well as the ensemble you can see the ridge trying to retrograde back to greenland, but I have a feeling unless the PV stays bottled up in Canada this could take a while to benefit from...since any kind of retrograde is likely Day 15 material it's going to be a while until we get answers. The last thing we want is the real cold going to Europe and having nothing to work with once we get a block.

[Cold Rain]

If the Pacific pattern is most influenced by ocean temps, doesn't the ocean temp configuration lead us to believe that the -EPO/-WPO is likely this winter, while the GOA low was likely last winter?

If we transpose that same concept to the Atlantic, it might be logical to conclude that the pattern there favors a Scandinavian ridge. I don't know.

I don't think the Pacific pattern influences blocking in the NAO region, but I might be wrong here. SSTs in the Atlantic and the stratosphere seem to play the biggest role WRT blocking.

[franklin NCwx]

I think the Scandinavia ridge is more of a response to the deep - heights over Greenland.

John the map you posted is actually closer to something we would like to see. Blocking over the top in Canada.

[tnweathernut]

if a sub 940 (gets to 937) can't alter the Atlantic what's it going to take........an atomic bomb? Lol

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[oconeexman]

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas!! Pattern looks to change around santy clause time...no?

[Wow]

GFS flips cold for Christmas time, but no Atlantic blocking yet.

 

[NEGa]

Yea, I hate those maps, you might as well toss a coin. 

The problem so far this winter is that the ENSO is about neutral, so we have to rely on blocking to get us the cold air. And since the teleconnections forecast aren't very good at all, you're going to see constant fluctuations in the extended.  

 

no argument here - they flip all the time.  i glance at the longer range but really have learned to try and focus more on shorter term possibilities.  posted something similar in another thread, but what i like to watch for is precip moving in and cold temps are already here or a cold front moves through a day or so before the precip does.  getting the colder temps and lower dewpoints established can help with CADs and make a significant difference by allowing those few extra degrees lower temps to come into play. with the number of cads/wedges so far this year i am hopeful that one will come in that means business.  other than a few rare occasions its not common to have a winter storm progged for the SE days or weeks in advance that ends up materializing

[Wow]

Actually, look at the NH view, the heights are so suppressed in the N Atlantic despite no direct ridge from Greenland, but from the overall displacement of the polar vortex.  That's some old fashioned cold weather right there.  I bet this was a fairly typical setup during those frigid winters of the 18th century.

 

[FallsLake]

Actually, look at the NH view, the heights are so suppressed in the N Atlantic despite no direct ridge from Greenland, but from the overall displacement of the polar vortex.  That's some old fashioned cold weather right there.  I bet this was a fairly typical setup during those frigid winters of the 18th century.

 

Right now I would love to lock the 12z GFS. It has the cold front passing through late on the 23rd, a cold Christmas, and then a very cold week after. No real winter threats but with how bad the indices and the models have looked we should feel lucky if this happens.

[superjames1992]

Currently it's 52. The average is 42. That's ridiculous.

Waycross currently is 65. The average is 53. We should actually be higher than 65 but Accuweather messed up one of our overnight lows. It says we were 84 that day and 32 at night when we were actually in the 60s. So we are probably +14-16.

Raleigh is currently 50. The average is 43. Torch. If we were the opposite like -7 and - 12 and -10 I'm pretty sure we would call that frigid.

Greensboro's average for the month has been 48.3, just 4.6F above average. CAD! That should decline a few degrees over the next week.

[frazdaddy]

Interesting thoughts from HM on the possible warm up in the MA pattern disco forum FWIW

[Southern Track]

Interesting thoughts from HM on the possible warm up in the MA pattern disco forum FWIW

Good read. HM seems to be a met that knows his stuff, and doesn't have any pre-season agendas he's trying to re-enforce.

[Lookout]

if a sub 940 (gets to 937) can't alter the Atlantic what's it going to take........an atomic bomb? Lol

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06z gfs forecasted the low to get to 936mb and the 12z shows it getting down to 937mb.

 

Here is a good article on the lowest extratropical pressures ever recorded. The lowest was 913mb! Just think for a few moments on just how insane that is

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/super-extratropical-storms-alaska-and-extratropical-record-low-baro

 

 

 

[superjames1992]

Well, the Euro looks completely different than last night.  Shocking.

[wxgeek]

Well, the Euro looks completely different than last night.  Shocking.

Not shocking.  What changed?  I havent had the opportunity to see it yet,.

[tnweathernut]

I know we have had an unusually strong Scandanavian Ridge and an unusually strong -WPO -EPO.  One argues torch, the other argues cooler/cold.  So far the Pacific has been dominating the pattern for NA, but my question is this:

 

1.  Do we need a reset in the Pacific to dislodge the Scandanavian Ridge?

 

2.  If we dislodge the Scandanavian ridge, will we also likely lose the positive Pacific influence?

HM posted this in the Mid-Atlantic thread.  A good read, and I am guessing there is A LOT we still just don't know about cause and effect.

 

"I posted a few AO graphics a while back for years like 1961-62 and 1990-91. The overall northern annular modes state, or NAM, seemed to favor +AO overall first half and -AO second half. This is typical of a +QBO winter. The westerlies are firmly entrenched below 30km with easterlies 30-40km. These have been correlated to delay any disturbance.

 

The PV will continue to intensify into early-mid Jan before possibly weakening thereafter. That's when I think the NAM state will start to get perturbed. The question is: will perturbing anything about the pattern mean we mess up the current pattern that delivers the cold? So, even though we get a -AO, would that force changes that make the Pacific more hostile? All of the magical late Jan-Feb periods had a nice overlap between favorable MJO and stratosphere. Having 1 occur without the other has usually led to more disappointment.

[DaculaWeather]

I like this...

 

[Marion_NC_WX]

Not shocking.  What changed?  I havent had the opportunity to see it yet,.

 

 

Another massive arctic outbreak on the Euro in time for Christmas Holiday...

[BIG FROSTY]

Another massive arctic outbreak on the Euro in time for Christmas Holiday...

We need moisture with the cold... When and if we get real cold there will be no moisture around! But now we can't time a system right to save our butts!!!!  cold/dry warm/wet etc.......

[Cold Rain]

We need moisture with the cold... When and if we get real cold there will be no moisture around! But now we can't time a system right to save our butts!!!!  cold/dry warm/wet etc.......

 

#brickbot

[Cold Rain]

 

I like this...

 

Fropa! Swoosh....

[tnweathernut]

Quite the dump of cold air, aimed at the central part of the country first.....as modeled by the long range Euro. Nice blocking in the pacific, terrible Atlantic. Looks fairly progressive, and as mentioned.....a 180 from 0z

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[tnweathernut]

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[JoshM]

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Geez... Merry Christmas to the ones who aren't frozen to death.

[POWERSTROKE]

We need moisture with the cold... When and if we get real cold there will be no moisture around! But now we can't time a system right to save our butts!!!!  cold/dry warm/wet etc.......

 

Geez... Merry Christmas to the ones who aren't frozen to death.

 

 

 

Come on now you know better than that.  You sound like Brick.  It is only December 11th.  Models changing everyday you will get a good snow this winter Big Frost just hang on