Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[metalicwx366]

Lol where were yall during the first 10 days?

[franklin NCwx]

Currently it's 52. The average is 42. That's ridiculous.

Waycross currently is 65. The average is 53. We should actually be higher than 65 but Accuweather messed up one of our overnight lows. It says we were 84 that day and 32 at night when we were actually in the 60s. So we are probably +14-16.

Raleigh is currently 50. The average is 43. Torch. If we were the opposite like -7 and - 12 and -10 I'm pretty sure we would call that frigid.

when did you move to Charlotte?

[Cold Rain]

I wonder if we'd see the same results though...

 

As of now, the purported "Warmness" is a PHANTOM.  I genuinely have no idea what this 10 day atrocity was that apparently occurred here in December.  Seriously - I need to understand this.   

 

As for the indices, I'm starting to have GREAT confidence in a cold winter despite the AO/NAO.  Precipitation...not so much.

 

We may very well end December above average.  If we do, there is no doubt that some locations will have greater departures than others.  But we have seen models call for big warm-ups.  So far, they have been pushed back or less in duration than originally forecast.  This is not to say that it won't warm up, warm up intensely, or stay warm.  We just cannot know that.  But I would hedge against any sustained torching at the moment UNTIL we see that pattern become established.

 

Personally, I'm not too worried about it at the moment.

 

 

Who cares now what happened in the first 10 days of the month?  They're in the past.  We could have had temps in the 80s everyday, and it wouldn't bother me now, because it's all in the past.

 

 

30-year average temperature for CLT in December is 43.4 F, compared to a current average December temperature in 2013 of 51.6 F.  30-year max temp average for CLT in December is 53.3 F, compared to a current average max December temperature in 2013 of 60.6 F.

 

 

Thanks for the info.  And very much agree with the bolded.  Unless there is a proven causal correlation it's hard to believe that because yesterday or two days ago or the last 10 days were warm, the next day or two days from now or the next 10 days or even the rest of the winter will be warm.

 

There are good arguments for a warm winter.  The SAI and OPI indicate a +AO.  Some mets argue that the big -EPO (which has allowed for cold shots so far) will be less effective given the longer wavelengths of winter.  The state of the stratosphere right now is not conducive to blocking.  If you accept those factors as relevant, then there is a good case for a warmer than normal winter, especially here.  To me, temperature departure to date doesn't strengthen that viewpoint.

 

On the other hand, folks like DT and Robert make a good case for a colder winter. So far, it's hard to tell which camp will be right.  But so far, just like last year's big sustained cold shots never came, the big sustained warm-ups have not shown up yet.  To me, that's a relevant factor to consider.

 

So, I will choose to be optimistic that we will have our fair share of cold and snow this winter.  Why?  Because I've seen it happen in the worst patterns and the best patterns.  After all, this is the SE, and the weather will vary.  This year, the winter looks to offer a lot of variability.  That's the way it's supposed to be down here, and we can win with that.

[Bevo]

Queencity has a point for the last 7 days though.  Probably the warmest 7 day period for a chunk of the SE in the last couple of months.

 

20131209_7day_mean_F.gif

 

Here, with the exception of two days last week (that still failed to reach forecast highs) it's not been warm.  In fact, I've posted on here that I would like to feel it for a couple of days.

 

And let's be clear - I'm not knocking Queencity - in fact, I am quite surprised that I am not seeing his vision as I normally do.

 

Since March/April, very few LR warm ups came to pass.  IMO - at least for my area - last week failed as well.  To make a LR "extremely confident" prog of torching is to ignore what has factually happened for months...including terrible indices.  That -WPO is a b**** isn't it?

 

Wilmington, for the past couple weeks...  

 

How far above avg have you been?

[tnweathernut]

Interesting tweet from JB.

 

Current CFSV2 max snowcover forecast for period centered on Christmas. Talked to Santa, he has sled ready pic.twitter.com/xMWbp3jUhn

What is most interesting to me is to see the MASSIVE amounts of snowcover in Canada and either there or projected for much of the plains/Midwest.  If we could get a change in the pattern to send these cold discharges down the Midwest and into the southeast there is absolutely NOTHING to modify it.  I am guessing this is how we had such frigid artic airmasses into the southeast back in the 70's, 83, 85, etc.

[franklin NCwx]

We may very well end December above average. If we do, there is no doubt that some locations will have greater departures than others. But we have seen models call for big warm-ups. So far, they have been pushed back or less in duration than originally forecast. This is not to say that it won't warm up, warm up intensely, or stay warm. We just cannot know that. But I would hedge against any sustained torching at the moment UNTIL we see that pattern become established.

Thanks for the info. And very much agree with the bolded. Unless there is a proven causal correlation it's hard to believe that because yesterday or two days ago or the last 10 days were warm, the next day or two days from now or the next 10 days or even the rest of the winter will be warm.

There are good arguments for a warm winter. The SAI and OPI indicate a +AO. Some mets argue that even with a big -EPO (which has allowed for cold shots so far) will be less effective given the longer wavelengths of winter. The state of the stratosphere right now is not conducive to blocking. If you accept those factors as relevant, then there is a good case for a warmer than normal winter, especially here. To me, temperature departure to date doesn't strengthen that viewpoint.

On the other hand, folks like DT and Robert make a good case for a colder winter. So far, it's hard to tell which camp will be right. But so far, just like last year's big sustained cold shots never came, the big sustained warm-ups have not shown up yet. To me, that's a relevant factor to consider.

So, I will choose to be optimistic that we will have our fair share of cold and snow this winter. Why? Because I've seen it happen in the worst patterns and the best patterns. After all, this is the SE, and the weather will vary. This year, the winter looks to offer a lot of variability. That's the way it's supposed to be down here, and we can win with that.

if we can get the ridge to move out of Scandinavia we can get rid of the southeast ridge.

[Cold Rain]

Interesting tweet from JB.

 

Current CFSV2 max snowcover forecast for period centered on Christmas. Talked to Santa, he has sled ready pic.twitter.com/xMWbp3jUhn

 

Can't access Twitter from work.  How much for Raleigh??

[metalicwx366]

when did you move to Charlotte?

You can look it up online.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like NC is getting the finger though! :-)

 

I'm used to it.

[Isopycnic]

You can look it up online.

10/18/09?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R-5hAHfogg

I'm used to it.

It's Climo.

[Cold Rain]

if we can get the ridge to move out of Scandinavia we can get rid of the southeast ridge.

 

Seems like we've heard an awful lot about the old Scandinavian ridge the last several years.  I wonder if that's a more "natural" state for the atmosphere than say a Greenland ridge, if that even makes any sense.

[tnweathernut]

Here, with the exception of two days last week (that still failed to reach forecast highs) it's not been warm.  In fact, I've posted on here that I would like to feel it for a couple of days.

 

And let's be clear - I'm not knocking Queencity - in fact, I am quite surprised that I am not seeing his vision as I normally do.

 

Since March/April, very few LR warm ups came to pass.  IMO - at least for my area - last week failed as well.  To make a LR "extremely confident" prog of torching is to ignore what has factually happened for months...including terrible indices.  That -WPO is a b**** isn't it?

 

 

How far above avg have you been?

Well, I am just saying I can see his side (if you are talking about the last 7-8 days).  If you use a broader number of days as your search, not nearly so much.  If he's solely talking about December so far, it's been rather torchy over a larger area.  Overall though, the last couple of months has seen torch after torch predicted that have only verified once.  Will this start a trend or will we revert to the -WPO ftw?  Who knows............

 

That's why I posted the maps above.  It's easy to pass judgement based on how it's felt, but the actual maps don't lie.

[metalicwx366]

Can't access Twitter from work. How much for Raleigh??

It's only has snow in one of the four images for Raleigh. I'm on my phone so that's what I see. These maps are crap though. JB posts them every year and the opposite seems to happen. I should have had four white Christmases in a row. Also if this map is right, the southern part of Maine won't see snow.

[wxgeek]

Here are the maps

 

[Cold Rain]

By the way, the CFS continues to back off of the torchy January and now indicates average to below average in the east.  Week 1 looks cooler than average in the SE, while weeks 2-4 look pretty warm.  Precip seems to be normal to above throughout the period.

[metalicwx366]

10/18/09?

.

:lmao:

[Cold Rain]

Here are the maps

 

Awesome, thanks!  What a tundra.  It's very conspicuous where the snow hole is.  I mean, when Mexico has more snow than you, you need to just pack it in.

[Bevo]

Lol where were yall during the first 10 days?

 

Dear metalicwx366 -

 

I have been sitting in Lyman, SC.  I find myself pining for the warm weather that was promised to me for the last 10 days.  I am disappointed that it never arrived.  I thought I heard it knock on my door last Friday, but it must have lost it's nerve and decided to drive away before I could greet it.  Maybe the atmosphere changed it's mind.  Either way, I'm cold.  No one likes being stood up.

 

Sincerely,

 

Freezing In Upstate SC

 

*********************************************************************************************************

 

Just to keep this in the actual topic of discussion, I have and still maintain that Queencity and others could certainly be correct at the end of the month.  I even think a 50 degree average is likely.  It hasn't happened yet, so of course things could change.  My entire point that torching is a very questionable call is hinged on a much simpler observation than weeklies, 240 maps, etc...Regardless of what the indices are, or what logically should occur, for the most part the warm weather has not materialized as prognosticated.  When/if that starts happening, I will have more confidence in mid/long range data.

[toxictwister00]

Lol where were yall during the first 10 days?

The problem is you're making it seem like December ends after today, so of course the warmth we saw the first third of this month automatically sets the tone for the remainder of the month. I remember December 2004 being the same here where we saw it get as warm as the low 80s here breaking records. By the time the week of Christmas was here, we were in the 30s/40s. I'll never forget that crazy December, not just because of the wild temperature swings, but also because of the fact that the Gulf Coast had snow/sleet that Christmas. That was the one time I could say I was "too far north" to see snow.  Like I said earlier, I expect we'll be above average, but not by double digit numbers. I don't share that same level of confidence in something like that verifying.

[Cold Rain]

It's only has snow in one of the four images for Raleigh. I'm on my phone so that's what I see. These maps are crap though. JB posts them every year and the opposite seems to happen. I should have had four white Christmases in a row. Also if this map is right, the southern part of Maine won't see snow.

 

Thanks!  Yeah, what's up with southern Maine?  How much are you above average for December?

[Southern Track]

It's only has snow in one of the four images for Raleigh. I'm on my phone so that's what I see. These maps are crap though. JB posts them every year and the opposite seems to happen. I should have had four white Christmases in a row. Also if this map is right, the southern part of Maine won't see snow.

I tend to agree. JB posts these on Twitter all the time, and they never verify. It's the hype machine, and equivalent to me posting a snow total for Christmas Day from a map I saw at 0z today.

[Brick Tamland]

And the thing about averages is if you have days that are really above normal, then it's going to skew things towards being above normal, even if most of the other days are near normal or below. And if you have days that are really below normal, it's going to do the opposite.

[SnowNiner]

if we can get the ridge to move out of Scandinavia we can get rid of the southeast ridge.

 

Yes, I think that is key.  We simply need the ridge to move east back to where it was in November; giving us the trough in the east.  The PNA looks like it wants to eventually go positive in the long range, so when it does, the cold air is going to hit us again, and the SE ridge will take care of itself.  Honestly that's my hope for this winter.  I don't think we're going to get any blocking this year, so we need to depend on the -EPO/+PNA combo to give us cold.  That's the closest "good" pattern in sight IMO.  That along with the STJ going, it's the best we can ask for. 

 

Don't know what's going to keep the storms south though and not up through the apps. 

[metalicwx366]

The problem is you're making it seem like December ends after today, so of course the warmth we saw the first third of this month automatically sets the tone for the remainder of the month. I remember December 2004 being the same here where we saw it get as warm as the low 80s here breaking records. By the time the week of Christmas was here, we were in the 30s/40s. I'll never forget that crazy December, not just because of the wild temperature swings, but also because of the fact that the Gulf Coast had snow/sleet that Christmas. That was the one time I could say I was "too far north" to see snow. Like I said earlier, I expect we'll be above average, but not by double digit numbers. I don't share that same level of confidence in something like that verifying.

No. It's just that people apparently didn't see the first 10 days as a torch when it clearly was. I know anything can happen. It's possible we might see the biggest snowstorm ever later this month or in January.

[metalicwx366]

Thanks! Yeah, what's up with southern Maine? How much are you above average for December?

+12 currently.

[Batman]

It's math. We torched the first 10 days of December. Numbers do not lie.

MBY torched for 3 days. The other seven days have been right at average on the whole. A cold snap for a few days would equalize that or the rest of the month at near average would likely level that off to a large degree. While Dec. 4-6 may have felt like a sauna, it does not make the entire month (or even the first half) a torch. It was 24 this morning. I know of many years this would have been the coldest morning YTD by far. This year, it is about the 7th or so time below 25.

[Isopycnic]

And the thing about averages is if you have days that are really above normal, then it's going to skew things towards being above normal, even if most of the other days are near normal or below. And if you have days that are really below normal, it's going to do the opposite.

Thanks for the expert analysis, Brick.

IMBY, I am +4.8f for the month. however I was -3.1f for November.

[Bevo]

Well, I am just saying I can see his side (if you are talking about the last 7-8 days).  If you use a broader number of days as your search, not nearly so much.  If he's solely talking about December so far, it's been rather torchy over a larger area.  Overall though, the last couple of months has seen torch after torch predicted that have only verified once.  Will this start a trend or will we revert to the -WPO ftw?  Who knows............

 

That's why I posted the maps above.  It's easy to pass judgement based on how it's felt, but the actual maps don't lie.

 

You know I'm not trying argue with you.  It's just that the map showing a +9 7 day Mean for my area doesn't jive with my registered temps (I don't use GSP because my instruments are several degrees cooler 99% of the time - any time of year) - it's also misleading (just as drought maps tend to be) in that my two mild-ish days unfairly spike the conclusion.  So where as they may not "lie" per se - they don't tell the truth either.  Like wives.  Or the cable company

[NCCatawba]

Interesting tweet from JB.

 

Current CFSV2 max snowcover forecast for period centered on Christmas. Talked to Santa, he has sled ready pic.twitter.com/xMWbp3jUhn

 

Not interesting at all. These change daily if you look back a few days in his twitter history the four panels looked awful for NC...or at least worse than what's currently shown. 

[DaculaWeather]

Not interesting at all. These change daily if you look back a few days in his twitter history the four panels looked awful for NC...or at least worse than what's currently shown. 

Yea, I hate those maps, you might as well toss a coin. 

The problem so far this winter is that the ENSO is about neutral, so we have to rely on blocking to get us the cold air. And since the teleconnections forecast aren't very good at all, you're going to see constant fluctuations in the extended.