FallsLake Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow the Euro looked god awful last night in the LR . Hopefully it's just a burp but the 00z GFS run and 6z run don't exactly give much hope either. While I don't think we end up too far above normal for December on temps I'm starting to fall into Jeremy's camp for December. Your right nothing looks good right now. Looks like we warm up right before Christmas, get some rain, and then cool down. Also in the LR, No real cold air pushes into the states. **the 6z GFS maybe shows a fantasy mixed event on Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't see how we going to end up so far above normal when the next 7 days are in the 40's and maybe 50's. Yes a slight warm up is possible but no bathing suit weather. This is the southeast so we always get warm before we get cold. Models have not been accurate so whatever they showed last night will change. End of December into January is our time anyway. If we get anything in December its a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't see how we going to end up so far above normal when the next 7 days are in the 40's and maybe 50's. Yes a slight warm up is possible but no bathing suit weather. This is the southeast so we always get warm before we get cold. Models have not been accurate so whatever they showed last night will change. End of December into January is our time anyway. If we get anything in December its a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't see how we going to end up so far above normal when the next 7 days are in the 40's and maybe 50's. Yes a slight warm up is possible but no bathing suit weather. This is the southeast so we always get warm before we get cold. Models have not been accurate so whatever they showed last night will change. End of December into January is our time anyway. If we get anything in December its a bonus It's math. We torched the first 10 days of December. Numbers do not lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow the Euro looked god awful last night in the LR . Hopefully it's just a burp but the 00z GFS run and 6z run don't exactly give much hope either. While I don't think we end up too far above normal for December on temps I'm starting to fall into Jeremy's camp for December. Yeah, unfortunately if last nights modeling verifies, my call of a 50+ December might just verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's math. We torched the first 10 days of December. Numbers do not lie.Exactly it's just like everyone has ignored the first 10 days. Those warm anomalies will be hard to bring down to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah, unfortunately if last nights modeling verifies, my call of a 50+ December might just verify. What's your average for the month over in CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's math. We torched the first 10 days of December. Numbers do not lie. Exactly who torched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 50+ what? Departure? For WHO? Where is all of this happening? What I've seen happen is constant shouts of "warm warm warm" with nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 All of the above show teleconnections for the 10th, but today's runs are almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's math. We torched the first 10 days of December. Numbers do not lie. A torch is when you are way above average and that we aren't. Last year was a torch. Different math class for some. Hardly any cold days last year in December compared to this year and we only on day 11 so according to my math we have 20 more days of December which is more than half the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We could post virtually those same images every day for the rest of the winter, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I saw WRAL is talking about 60s for NC next week. Then I saw something on facebook from NC Piedmont Weather talking about things looked interesting around Christmas. Two weeks away so who knows. This weekend looks like rain again. So sick of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We could post virtually those same images every day for the rest of the winter, it seems. I wonder if we'd see the same results though... As of now, the purported "Warmness" is a PHANTOM. I genuinely have no idea what this 10 day atrocity was that apparently occurred here in December. Seriously - I need to understand this. As for the indices, I'm starting to have GREAT confidence in a cold winter despite the AO/NAO. Precipitation...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah, unfortunately if last nights modeling verifies, my call of a 50+ December might just verify. Personally, I'm not too worried about it at the moment. Exactly it's just like everyone has ignored the first 10 days. Those warm anomalies will be hard to bring down to average. Who cares now what happened in the first 10 days of the month? They're in the past. We could have had temps in the 80s everyday, and it wouldn't bother me now, because it's all in the past. What's your average for the month over in CLT? 30-year average temperature for CLT in December is 43.4 F, compared to a current average December temperature in 2013 of 51.6 F. 30-year max temp average for CLT in December is 53.3 F, compared to a current average max December temperature in 2013 of 60.6 F. See here. 50+ what? Departure? For WHO? Where is all of this happening? What I've seen happen is constant shouts of "warm warm warm" with nothing to show for it. All excellent points, Bevo. I believe QCWx is saying the average temperature for December in CLT will be greater than 50 F. But, that's just one backyard among many in the SE. Hickory too has been above normal, but it has not felt "torchy" in any way. This week will have normal or below normal temps for both CLT and HKY, so that average temperature number has nowhere to go but down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 50+ what? Departure? For WHO? Where is all of this happening? What I've seen happen is constant shouts of "warm warm warm" with nothing to show for it. Agreed, this weather has sucked, it's been cold and rainy, it will be cooler than normal the next 7-10 days and then we look above normal the week before Christmas. After Christmas, who know, Euro ENS are showing trough in central US. No blocking in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Personally, I'm not too worried about it at the moment. Who cares now what happened in the first 10 days of the month? They're in the past. We could have had temps in the 80s everyday, and it wouldn't bother me now, because it's all in the past. 30-year average temperature for CLT in December is 43.4 F, compared to a current average December temperature in 2013 of 51.6 F. 30-year max temp average for CLT in December is 53.3 F, compared to a current average max December temperature in 2013 of 60.6 F. See here. All excellent points, Bevo. I believe QCWx is saying the average temperature for December in CLT will be greater than 50 F. But, that's just one backyard among many in the SE. Hickory too has been above normal, but it has not felt "torchy" in any way. This week will have normal or below normal temps for both CLT and HKY, so that average temperature number has nowhere to go but down. After reading this it struck me. And now I also know why I didn't give it much thought...I'm just not interested. You cannot - absolutely cannot - try to break down every minutia and scale at the moment and feel good about a long range forecast for a torch. It just isn't happening. The calls for LR warm ups are exactly the same as last winter's LR calls for cool downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Agreed, this weather has sucked, it's been cold and rainy, it will be cooler than normal the next 7-10 days and then we look above normal the week before Christmas. After Christmas, who know, Euro ENS are showing trough in central US. No blocking in sight. Shouldn't we be very suspicious of that "warm up" though? They just aren't producing when the time arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Shouldn't we be very suspicious of that "warm up" though? They just aren't producing when the time arrives. We were warm (RDU) the first week of Dec, but then we quickly went back to below normal, so we will see, I definitely don't see an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We were warm (RDU) the first week of Dec, but then we quickly went back to below normal, so we will see, I definitely don't see an all out torch. Yes, I don't recall many normal days so far this month. They have either been really warm or below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 After reading this it struck me. And now I also know why I didn't give it much thought...I'm just not interested. You cannot - absolutely cannot - try to break down every minutia and scale at the moment and feel good about a long range forecast for a torch. It just isn't happening. The calls for LR warm ups are exactly the same as last winter's LR calls for cool downs. This. It's the exact same narrative from last year only the opposite. December 2013 very well could end above average. I'm not denying that at all, but I personally wouldn't feel so confident in such a forecast with the pendulum swinging LR forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's still pretty early in December to be writing winter off. Parts of the SE (west of the apps) have seen some abnormal cold and a few small to medium winter events to this point. The truth is................the storm track is RARELY ever this close to us in the month of December. I am used to seeing "cutters" (north Texas to Wisconsin) this time of the year. We have seen gulf lows already this year! Most years, the storm track will be eventually be shunted east as you get into true winter. Yes, the Atlantic has been a real kick in the pants so far and the SE ridge has been baking some in GA/NC/SC/FL for the first 1/3 of December, but that's not the entire southeast, but the last 30 days looks like this....... Torchy in parts of AL/GA/FL. It's not been too bad the last 30 days in the Carolinas, but it does look like mother nature is kinda giving you guys the middle finger so far....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Looks like NC is getting the finger though! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Queencity has a point for the last 7 days though. Probably the warmest 7 day period for a chunk of the SE in the last couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 50+ what? Departure? For WHO? Where is all of this happening? What I've seen happen is constant shouts of "warm warm warm" with nothing to show for it. Wilmington, for the past couple weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ensembles look pretty bad. Strong Scandinavia ridge teleconnecting to a southeast ridge/west coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Interesting tweet from JB. Current CFSV2 max snowcover forecast for period centered on Christmas. Talked to Santa, he has sled ready pic.twitter.com/xMWbp3jUhn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What's your average for the month over in CLT?Currently it's 52. The average is 42. That's ridiculous. Waycross currently is 65. The average is 53. We should actually be higher than 65 but Accuweather messed up one of our overnight lows. It says we were 84 that day and 32 at night when we were actually in the 60s. So we are probably +14-16. Raleigh is currently 50. The average is 43. Torch. If we were the opposite like -7 and - 12 and -10 I'm pretty sure we would call that frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 My average high for December here is 53º F, so far I'm averaging 50.5º F, and that's only the first 9 days of December. No torch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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