Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[superjames1992]

Near Raleigh NC -- We're had hurricanes cross right over the city (like Hazel & Fran) & we've had our share of large winter storms. **we had the 2 foot storm in 2001 but I think the 1980 would have met the criteria of blizzard(high winds, low temps with heavy snow):

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19960906/

Verbatim blizzards are pretty rare in these parts, though. I'm not sure when the last one was. I know WNC had some blizzard warnings in March 1993.

[Cold Rain]

Definitly not trying to wish cast this thing, but if the high does come in stronger; this system would have something the last system did not--an inital cold air mass in place(dew points will drop to the teens the next couple of days). Again I totally know this is a long shot but it has got my interest.

Ha! I know it. I mean, it could trend more favorably. The Euro looks better. It's still an uphill battle though. Fun to track, anyway.

[Poimen]

Just thought I would share. A friend just sent me an image from last night's EURO control run (see CR's explanation way above) that depicts a mid-Atlantic/upper SE snow threat on Christmas Eve.

 

A brother can always hope.

[nflwxman]

I've also lived in colder climates and your right; winter precip is not special where it is common. I've had people tell me I should move to Alaska, but I reply I would learn to hate the stuff and I really don't want that. We actually live in a very special place on earth. It's one of the few places on earth where you can get a hurricane and a blizzard in the same year(at the same place).

New York had a hurricane and 6+ inch snowstorm within 7 days in 2012, just saying! 

[FallsLake]

 

Near Raleigh NC -- We're had hurricanes cross right over the city (like Hazel & Fran) & we've had our share of large winter storms. **we had the 2 foot storm in 2001 but I think the 1980 would have met the criteria of blizzard(high winds, low temps with heavy snow):

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19960906/

 

I'm not sure where to find it but Jan 1996 we had an awesome snowstorm in NC .I believe it was the 5th and 6th . I mentioned this since you showed the Fran hurricane the same year.

Here's some good past event write-ups.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

 

The storm your talking about was a Miller B storm; which ironically is my most favorite winter storm ever. The below image shows the Raleigh area with 4-6 inches of accumilation. But that's not snow; it's mostly sleet. I personally rank this storm over the 2001 2 foot storm.    

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif

 

 

[superjames1992]

Yes, that was the so-called "Blizzard of 96". It was epic, especially further north.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

 

 

Near Raleigh NC -- We're had hurricanes cross right over the city (like Hazel & Fran) & we've had our share of large winter storms. **we had the 2 foot storm in 2001 but I think the 1980 would have met the criteria of blizzard(high winds, low temps with heavy snow):

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19960906/

 

I'm not sure where to find it but Jan 1996 we had an awesome snowstorm in NC .I believe it was the 5th and 6th . I mentioned this since you showed the Fran hurricane the same year.

Here's some good past event write-ups.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

 

The storm your talking about was a Miller B storm; which ironically is my most favorite winter storm ever. The below image shows the Raleigh area with 4-6 inches of accumilation. But that's not snow; it's mostly sleet. I personally rank this storm over the 2001 2 foot storm.    

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif

 

I didn't realize that was a miller B. I always thought it was a miller A.

 

 

 

[superjames1992]

Looks like the SLP transferred further south than most Miller Bs we deal with, hence the relative lack of screwage (though we obviously still had a lot of WAA, resulting in the snow mixed with sleet and ZR, IIRC).

 

I wish I could find something better than a TWC map, but that's all I can find for now.

 

 

Snowfall totals for the Mid-Atlantic were epic.

 

[franklin NCwx]

It looks like the JMA is going to nail the Dec forecast. I sure hope it is right for Jan!

[POWERSTROKE]

It looks like the JMA is going to nail the Dec forecast. I sure hope it is right for Jan!

Dead on!

The Korean is right behind it. Both show cold coming back late in December

[FallsLake]

RAH did not mention any chance of wintery precip this weekend but did discuss the potential for some severe weather along the wedge front: 

 

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STORMY WEEKEND AHEAD. AS THE
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES... THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NC FRI NIGHT WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES. AT THE SAME
TIME... THE PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL LEAD
TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FRI NIGHT... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE AS THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE QUICKLY
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE AT 290K-295K. THIS SURGE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL OVERRIDE THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND ITS INITIAL
LOW DEW POINTS (IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (IN THE 20S FRI EVENING) AND IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN IN SITU DAMMING WEDGE OVER THE NRN AND WRN
PIEDMONT HEADING INTO SAT... A SOLUTION AGREED UPON BY THE
GFS/ECMWF. ITS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME RANGE EXACTLY WHERE
THE WEDGE FRONT WILL SET UP ON SAT... WITH THE GFS PLACING IT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF CENTRAL NC (BISECTING THE TRIANGLE AREA) WHILE
THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN (MORE SE THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS). THE TEMP SPREAD EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE COULD
EASILY BE 20 DEGREES OVER A SHORT DISTANCE ORTHOGONAL TO THE WEDGE
FRONT... ENSURING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT TEMP FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN THE PRECIP FORECAST... GIVEN THE
MODELS` INDICATION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT MOISTURE FEED OUT
OF THE GULF AND A SURGE OF HIGH PW OF NEARLY 300% OF NORMAL SAT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE MS VALLEY. WILL BRING IN A LOW
CHANCE (MAINLY IN THE W) OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRI NIGHT...
THEN RAMP UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A
FEW LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOSTLY
ELEVATED CAPE... AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A TRIPLE POINT
LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONG ROTATING CELL WILL BE 21Z-
06Z... WHEN THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY (OVER 400 M2/S2 AT 0-2
KM) COINCIDES WITH THE BEST (BUT STILL MEAGER) INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
OF 100-200 J/KG AT MOST). MODELS SHOW THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACKING
QUICKLY TO OUR NE OVERNIGHT (06Z-09Z) SAT NIGHT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY 12Z... IN TANDEM WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
EVENTUAL LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUN MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD
BIT OF SUNSHINE BY SUN AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY HOLDING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AS THICKNESSES ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE: AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH
SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING... GREATER COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
FOLLOW... WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. THE
GFS REMAINS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF MON (BY ABOUT 15 M)... A MUCH
SMALLER GAP THAN YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE AVERAGE OF THESE THICKNESSES
IS STILL AT LEAST 30-35 M BELOW NORMAL AS ANOTHER CHILLY ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... SO WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S
MON. COLD TUE NIGHT WITH A DRY STABLE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVERHEAD... LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CONTINUED FAIR ON TUE WITH THE (BY-
NOW MODIFYING) SURFACE RIDGE STILL SPANNING NC... A DRY COLUMN...
AND FAST AND GENTLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

-- End Changed Discussion --

[Jon]

Just thought I would share. A friend just sent me an image from last night's EURO control run (see CR's explanation way above) that depicts a mid-Atlantic/upper SE snow threat on Christmas Eve.

 

A brother can always hope.

a la JB WxBell video this AM? Yeah, he's pulling out all the stops if he's looking at the 348hr control run and pointing out a surface low off of the NE and saying its a hint of what's to come, but who could blame him, nothing else to talk about really as far as a likable pattern...we're gonna have to wait this one out for a while until we see some favorable blocking and other players on board as CR pointed out. I'm optomistic but you can tell when JB has to go searching.

[Jon]

12z Euro ens and 12z GFS ens both have Scandinavian block with SE ridging out to 240, FWIW...

 

Anyone dreaming of a warm Christmas? Here's the 12z GFS ens members.

 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

12z Euro ens and 12z GFS ens both have Scandinavian block with SE ridging out to 240, FWIW...

 

Anyone dreaming of a warm Christmas? Here's the 12z GFS ens members.

 

Just saw on J/B twitter page showing cold US 12/26/13 . Do you see that on the models ? Same GFS 12z  Even southeast was cold.

[Cold Rain]

12z Euro ens and 12z GFS ens both have Scandinavian block with SE ridging out to 240, FWIW...

Anyone dreaming of a warm Christmas? Here's the 12z GFS ens members.

I liked you better before you got out of school!

[metalicwx366]

Teleconnections have trended even worse. ++AO coming up, NAO moving into the positive phase, PNA just staying negative. Yesterday it looked like we might get a neutral or positive PNA.

[Batman]

a la JB WxBell video this AM? Yeah, he's pulling out all the stops if he's looking at the 348hr control run and pointing out a surface low off of the NE and saying its a hint of what's to come, but who could blame him, nothing else to talk about really as far as a likable pattern...we're gonna have to wait this one out for a while until we see some favorable blocking and other players on board as CR pointed out. I'm optomistic but you can tell when JB has to go searching.

Actually, JB and the nucleus of his customer base have been getting hammered since the week of Thanksgiving. They warmed up last week, but have gotten hit twice with snows this week. Did you happen to see the Eagles/Lions game Sunday? Or about 5 other NFL games. Philly airport was shut down for awhile today. Philly already has more snow this season than all of last year. They have a shot again this weekend up there. His main customer base is off to a great start this year. He has been pretty clear that the SE will be on the fringe of the cold and his forecast winter forecast calls for us to miss out on some of it. He is honking for December to remain cold for much of the nation, but that does not necessarily mean the SE. SO far, his December call has been pretty good.

[Jon]

Just saw on J/B twitter page showing cold US 12/26/13 . Do you see that on the models ? Same GFS 12z  Even southeast was cold.

Yeah he posted the 360hr GFS 2m temps for Christmas so it's definitely different than the 240hr I posted...there's no telling how long the ridge would last IF the ridge formed, but the OP run suggests the cold will dive in behind the ridge and push it out over the Atlantic creating a trough over much of the central and eastern US. Here's what the same run looks like at 276hrs, so per the OP the warmth (in comparison to normal) is short lived, so the cold has enough time to get in place for Christmas...but that's just guessing. JB tends to point out things that are in favor of a cold pattern, even if a warm-up is progged in the frames beforehand.

 

I liked you better before you got out of school!

I'll be here all Month I prefer snow & cold, but also like to look at everything and don't look for a needle in a haystack supporting a cold winter when it's not there. I do, however, don't think this winter will be a bust and I think we'll have plenty of fun com JFM, just have a feelin'. We just have to watch the NE have the fun for a while, as usual.

 

Actually, JB and the nucleus of his customer base have been getting hammered since the week of Thanksgiving. They warmed up last week, but have gotten hit twice with snows this week. Did you happen to see the Eagles/Lions game Sunday? Or about 5 other NFL games. Philly airport was shut down for awhile today. Philly already has more snow this season than all of last year. They have a shot again this weekend up there. His main customer base is off to a great start this year. He has been pretty clear that the SE will be on the fringe of the cold and his forecast winter forecast calls for us to miss out on some of it. He is honking for December to remain cold for much of the nation, but that does not necessarily mean the SE. SO far, his December call has been pretty good.

Yeah he keeps altering his December forecast and NC & lower including florida/GA is at normal, the only at normal area on the entire map. I'm a subscriber so I notice each time he does the videos he changes his forecast, and he does explain how it has changed and why he has changed it, but in the end if it were to come up he'd point to his altered temp map for his "forecast" for December. I like JB, just interesting how he runs thing for his customer base. When he tweets about how it's going to be "colder", he certainly isn't talking to us in the SE, lets put it that way. haha.

[pcbjr]

Well, I never expected sticking snow here on Christmas 1989 - but then again, no one called for it then. Who knows what the weather will command.

 

But right now, reasonable expectations for anything but warm to near normal most of this month equate with a

[Lindsaywx]

Teleconnections have trended even worse. ++AO coming up, NAO moving into the positive phase, PNA just staying negative. Yesterday it looked like we might get a neutral or positive PNA.

And they change daily....

[POWERSTROKE]

Yeah he posted the 360hr GFS 2m temps for Christmas so it's definitely different than the 240hr I posted...there's no telling how long the ridge would last IF the ridge formed, but the OP run suggests the cold will dive in behind the ridge and push it out over the Atlantic creating a trough over much of the central and eastern US. Here's what the same run looks like at 276hrs, so per the OP the warmth (in comparison to normal) is short lived, so the cold has enough time to get in place for Christmas...but that's just guessing. JB tends to point out things that are in favor of a cold pattern, even if a warm-up is progged in the frames beforehand.

I'll be here all Month I prefer snow & cold, but also like to look at everything and don't look for a needle in a haystack supporting a cold winter when it's not there. I do, however, don't think this winter will be a bust and I think we'll have plenty of fun com JFM, just have a feelin'. We just have to watch the NE have the fun for a while, as usual.

Yeah he keeps altering his December forecast and NC & lower including florida/GA is at normal, the only at normal area on the entire map. I'm a subscriber so I notice each time he does the videos he changes his forecast, and he does explain how it has changed and why he has changed it, but in the end if it were to come up he'd point to his altered temp map for his "forecast" for December. I like JB, just interesting how he runs thing for his customer base. When he tweets about how it's going to be "colder", he certainly isn't talking to us in the SE, lets put it that way. haha.

He may alter some but if you look at his winter outlook when he put it out in late October he has been pretty spot on. Look where most of the snow predicted this year. Just west and north of us. So far he has been right and wxsouth is about the same with most west and north of us. Either way its been better than last year so far.

[tnweathernut]

https://twitter.com/skilling/status/410515108977057793

Wonder what these years were like for snow in the SE. 77/78 were cold and snowy in mid TN (from my youthful and maybe skewed recollection)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[superjames1992]

https://twitter.com/skilling/status/410515108977057793

Wonder what these years were like for snow in the SE. 77/78 were cold and snowy in mid TN (from my youthful and maybe skewed recollection)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

1977 had a tremendous arctic outbreak across the deep south where Tampa, FL recorded measurable snow.

[pcbjr]

1977, 1983, 1985 and 1989 - brutal cold way down south. Snow in 1977 and 1989. But watch what you want too much - the springs, at least down here, began right away in January and were miserable, hot (1977 being not as bad). Extremes do have a way of flipping quickly ....

[Batman]

Yeah he posted the 360hr GFS 2m temps for Christmas so it's definitely different than the 240hr I posted...there's no telling how long the ridge would last IF the ridge formed, but the OP run suggests the cold will dive in behind the ridge and push it out over the Atlantic creating a trough over much of the central and eastern US. Here's what the same run looks like at 276hrs, so per the OP the warmth (in comparison to normal) is short lived, so the cold has enough time to get in place for Christmas...but that's just guessing. JB tends to point out things that are in favor of a cold pattern, even if a warm-up is progged in the frames beforehand.

 

I'll be here all Month I prefer snow & cold, but also like to look at everything and don't look for a needle in a haystack supporting a cold winter when it's not there. I do, however, don't think this winter will be a bust and I think we'll have plenty of fun com JFM, just have a feelin'. We just have to watch the NE have the fun for a while, as usual.

 

Yeah he keeps altering his December forecast and NC & lower including florida/GA is at normal, the only at normal area on the entire map. I'm a subscriber so I notice each time he does the videos he changes his forecast, and he does explain how it has changed and why he has changed it, but in the end if it were to come up he'd point to his altered temp map for his "forecast" for December. I like JB, just interesting how he runs thing for his customer base. When he tweets about how it's going to be "colder", he certainly isn't talking to us in the SE, lets put it that way. haha.

I don't pay for JB, so I am not as aware of how often he is updating his winter or monthly forecast. I did  subscribe for a couple years when he was with accuweather. I learned that he tends to focus on mid-Atlantic and NE and then touch on other places. He also goes to great lengths to drive home his point. Even at times when his point may not be looking all that valid. This year however, he has been pretty solid thus far. I hope he is right for he entire winter. Actually, I would prefer that the SE end up a little colder than his forecast. However, if he is right, the cold air will at least be close by for most of the winter. That at least gives us a chance if the jet buckles and can time with some moisture. I have seen too many winters in GA. where the players never get on the field at the same time. I think this has the opportunity to be a winter with several opportunities. Not a wall to wall ice box, but opportunities for winter weather.

[griteater]

Surface Temperature Anomalies for Dec 1-8...wow at above normal temperatures for all of Asia

 

[Pilotwx]

Models have been so accurate this year with the coming heat take it to the bank!!

[dsaur]

 Only ~15% of seasonal S/IP at KATL has fallen by 12/31. Feb. and Jan. have far exceeded Dec. Since 1924, Mar has had a fair amount more snow than Dec. .Regarding ZR, only ~20% of the major ZR's have occurred by 12/31. Also, most of the major Dec. ZR's have occurred 12/24+. As Tony often says, Jan. is the big ZR month for N GA.

All these cads make me believe it's coming finally.  One of these days we'll get a big vortex up north, even without the blocking, that will hold on long enough for a strong cad to establish, and some water will run up into it.  Much more likely in the cold months, but we've already gotten some near misses for something big, and it's only Nov and Dec. Heck, we'll see one this weekend late, and it'll change 4 times before then, as to track, depth of cold, etc.  I don't think the blocking is the thing when we have these cads.  It's always about timing even with perfect blocking, a split flow, phasing, perfect tele connections,  whatever.  It's the south, nothing is written   T

[POWERSTROKE]

Models have been so accurate this year with the coming heat take it to the bank!!

U funny!

[burgertime]

Wow the Euro looked god awful last night in the LR  . Hopefully it's just a burp but the 00z GFS run and 6z run don't exactly give much hope either. While I don't think we end up too far above normal for December on temps I'm starting to fall into Jeremy's camp for December.