Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[GaWx]

 To help keep expectations for areas outside of the mountains grounded in reality, only ~5% of RDU's average winter precip liquid equivalent is wintry (ZR/S/IP) on average while only a mere ~3% of Atlanta's is wintry on average. In other words, "evil" liquid precip. is overwhelmingly favored throughout the winter for any single event for these major cities and in the nonmountainous SE in general. Of course, these statistics shouldn't be a surprise. This is the relatively winter precip.-free SE, not the Mid-Atlantic. Winter storms are the fairly rare exception and not the rule. Now, that's not saying that only 5%/3% of precip. events have at least some wintry precip. RDU/ATL or even that 5%/3% of the number of hours of precip. are wintry. Those %'s are a good bit higher.

[Cold Rain]

Great post and great map CR! I was thinking the same thing when I saw the indices this morning. It appears they have taken a step backward from yesterday which had been a step forward. I was hoping the PNA would continue yesterday's trend of members in strong agreement of a move into + territory. Today they head toward +, but then disagree in the LR. It appears to me that we are looking at more of what we are experiencing this week. Cool, but not cold to mild, but not warm. I have experienced MUCH worse in December, but I know most folks are hoping for much better. Good news is that it appears that we will have plenty opportunities for precipitation even if it is in the liquid form for most of us. Maybe some the analogs that are being mentioned will prove true as we head toward the end of the month and into the new year.

Yeah, hopefully we can start to see some changes in the NAO domain at some point. But the models are just resolute in not showing any meaningful blocking whatsoever....not even a mercy LR pipe dream fantasy block. But yeah, I agree, there have been MUCH worse starts to winter.

[packbacker]

The standard teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) continue to remain unfavorably aligned for the foreseeable future, with the AO set to spike very positive again.  The MJO continues to be a non-factor.  The CFS continues to back off of the extreme coast to coast warmth in its January prog, now showing a cool west, slighly warm east.  It still shows drier conditions, though.  Week 1 looks below average in the east with Weeks 2 and 3 above and now Week 4 back to around normal.  Canada looks very cold for Weeks 3 and 4.  Precipitation looks near or above normal for the SE through the period.

 

The synopitic pattern forecasted by all guidance that I looked at continued to show an unfavorable pattern for sustained warmth and for winter weather.  The most favored outcome appears to be near or slightly below normal in the temp department with precipitation events preceded by warm-ups and followed by cool-downs.  The 240 Euro run from last night illustrates both the reason that SE snowstorms are not favored as well as why 240 maps are fairly worthless anyway (if you compare to yesterday's 12Z zonal run).

 

The bottom line is that we can certainly have a winter storm in this pattern, but with the current synopitic alignment (and the forecasted alignment) of the teleconnections, it's going to be an uphill battle.

 

Great writeup!  The 15 day Euro ENS mean is more of the same, no blocking, essentially rest of December will take more or less a miracle, but to be honest it's probably good news we aren't wasting a -AO/-NAO in December. 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, hopefully we can start to see some changes in the NAO domain at some point. But the models are just resolute in not showing any meaningful blocking whatsoever....not even a mercy LR pipe dream fantasy block. But yeah, I agree, there have been MUCH worse starts to winter.

 

Yes, that's my worry.  Really, there hasn't been even the hint of blocking in the models or teleconnections.  December I think is just not going to work unless there's a huge spike in the PNA and we get a perfectly placed trough. 

 

Hoping the blocking doesn't do like last year and show up in March when it's too late. 

[El Kabong]

 To help keep expectations for areas outside of the mountains grounded in reality, only ~5% of RDU's average winter precip liquid equivalent is wintry (ZR/S/IP) on average while only a mere ~3% of Atlanta's is wintry on average. In other words, "evil" liquid precip. is overwhelmingly favored throughout the winter for any single event for these major cities and in the nonmountainous SE in general. Of course, these statistics shouldn't be a surprise. This is the relatively winter precip.-free SE, not the Mid-Atlantic. Winter storms are the fairly rare exception and not the rule.

Larry,

 

Numerous times you've posted these historical figures regarding the paltry percentage of wintry precipitation we can expect in the South.  It's good to have those reminders to bring us back into reality.  I guess the lack of winter precipitation is what fuels our desire to see a winter storm shown on every model run.  The bitter truth is that 95-97% of the time, what falls from the sky is going to be non-frozen, and we should temper our expectations and realize that one true widespread storm threat over the course of the winter is all we should realistically expect (at least for the deep South posters).  Anything beyond that is gravy!

 

But, all it takes is one to make it a winter to remember!  Thanks to all of those who continue to lookout for the pattern that just might produce a winner for the Southeast. It's kind of like Ahab searching for Moby Dick.  Here's to finding our own white whale (aka a Miller A gulf low!)

[Cold Rain]

Great writeup! The 15 day Euro ENS mean is more of the same, no blocking, essentially rest of December will take more or less a miracle, but to be honest it's probably good news we aren't wasting a -AO/-NAO in December.

Yeah, I would prefer a -AO/-NAO in January, if I had a choice. Any word on the Euro weeklies? Do you know? Or do we even want to know?

[BullCityWx]

Even with the last couple of "cool" days, we're going to finish the first 10 days of the month with an average temperature of at least 51-52 degrees. 

[El Kabong]

As an additional reminder, the bulk of our winter is on the road ahead, not in our rearview mirror.  As a lifetime Georgia resident (northwest Georgia (Rome) for 30 years, middle Georgia for 17), some of the best winter weather events I've seen have occurred in February or March.  The biggest, of course, was the 18" dumping in March of 1993. However, there was also a truly rare, but amazing 5-6" snowfall in Rome, Georgia on April 3-4, 1987.  There's plenty of winter left to go!  Larry probably has some great data to back this up.

 

Mods, if this falls under banter, please remove.

[Cold Rain]

To help keep expectations for areas outside of the mountains grounded in reality, only ~5% of RDU's average winter precip liquid equivalent is wintry (ZR/S/IP) on average while only a mere ~3% of Atlanta's is wintry on average. In other words, "evil" liquid precip. is overwhelmingly favored throughout the winter for any single event for these major cities and in the nonmountainous SE in general. Of course, these statistics shouldn't be a surprise. This is the relatively winter precip.-free SE, not the Mid-Atlantic. Winter storms are the fairly rare exception and not the rule. Now, that's not saying that only 5%/3% of precip. events have at least some wintry precip. RDU/ATL or even that 5%/3% of the number of hours of precip. are wintry. Those %'s are a good bit higher.

I think that explains really well why there's so much anticipation and excitement for winter weather. If we were at 95% and 97% respectively, then most probably wouldn't care as much. The chase is part of the fun. But it's good to have proper expectations as well...to at least limit the cliff diving.

[Wow]

Now that's a cold front

 

[packbacker]

Yeah, I would prefer a -AO/-NAO in January, if I had a choice. Any word on the Euro weeklies? Do you know? Or do we even want to know?

 

Weatherbell has the weeklies now, but they don't summarize them like some providers do.  Quickly thumbed through them, looks like a -NAO tries to build near the end of the run, ridging in the west, but this is first week of January.  Until then, no blocking showing up.

[Batman]

I think that explains really well why there's so much anticipation and excitement for winter weather. If we were at 95% and 97% respectively, then most probably wouldn't care as much. The chase is part of the fun. But it's good to have proper expectations as well...to at least limit the cliff diving.

 

Well said. This post should be read and heeded by all!

[Batman]

Now that's a cold front

 

I think this has been on the models for a couple days. Or, at least a similar look with artic air behind the front. If I remember correctly, it was a couple days faster yesterday. Good sign that it is still there. I am hoping that it has a more eastward trajectory with the cold air. Of course, we are talking about nearly two weeks out. If it holds, Santa would have a good tail wind behind him in much of the US.

[mackerel_sky]

I'm dreaming of a wet Christmas !

[GaWx]

Larry,

 

Numerous times you've posted these historical figures regarding the paltry percentage of wintry precipitation we can expect in the South.  It's good to have those reminders to bring us back into reality.  I guess the lack of winter precipitation is what fuels our desire to see a winter storm shown on every model run.  The bitter truth is that 95-97% of the time, what falls from the sky is going to be non-frozen, and we should temper our expectations and realize that one true widespread storm threat over the course of the winter is all we should realistically expect (at least for the deep South posters).  Anything beyond that is gravy!

 

But, all it takes is one to make it a winter to remember!  Thanks to all of those who continue to lookout for the pattern that just might produce a winner for the Southeast. It's kind of like Ahab searching for Moby Dick.  Here's to finding our own white whale (aka a Miller A gulf low!)

 

 Agreed 100%. Nice analogy.That's what makes SE winter storms so magical and fun to try to predict. There's no telling when that next major Miller A SE classic, Miller B CAD, strong closed upper low, or whatever may occur and result in a memorable winter storm.

[FallsLake]

You guys will kill me for this, but the GFS did come in a little bit colder at 12z for this weekend storm. Would still give most only rain but if the storm trends more south in future runs we could be tracking something again. at this point I would say the MA folks should be the most interested.

[GaWx]

As an additional reminder, the bulk of our winter is on the road ahead, not in our rearview mirror.  As a lifetime Georgia resident (northwest Georgia (Rome) for 30 years, middle Georgia for 17), some of the best winter weather events I've seen have occurred in February or March.  The biggest, of course, was the 18" dumping in March of 1993. However, there was also a truly rare, but amazing 5-6" snowfall in Rome, Georgia on April 3-4, 1987.  There's plenty of winter left to go!  Larry probably has some great data to back this up.

 

Mods, if this falls under banter, please remove.

 

 Only ~15% of seasonal S/IP at KATL has fallen by 12/31. Feb. and Jan. have far exceeded Dec. Since 1924, Mar has had a fair amount more snow than Dec. .Regarding ZR, only ~20% of the major ZR's have occurred by 12/31. Also, most of the major Dec. ZR's have occurred 12/24+. As Tony often says, Jan. is the big ZR month for N GA.

[GaWx]

I think that explains really well why there's so much anticipation and excitement for winter weather. If we were at 95% and 97% respectively, then most probably wouldn't care as much. The chase is part of the fun. But it's good to have proper expectations as well...to at least limit the cliff diving.

 

CR,

 Agreed 100%. That's why I enjoy experiencing wintry precip. in the SE US much more than when I experience it in more wintry climates, where it is sort of ordinary. Actually, I'd prefer to experience 1" of snow in Savannah or 3" of snow in Atlanta to, say, 12" in Philly.

[Cold Rain]

You guys will kill me for this, but the GFS did come in a little bit colder at 12z for this weekend storm. Would still give most only rain but if the storm trends more south in future runs we could be tracking something again. at this point I would say the MA folks should be the most interested.

 

Bang!

 

That HP is still too far north as the confluence sets up too far north.  It allows the low to scoot too far NW and reform too far to the NE.  WAA all over the place.  Northern MA is in the game, like you said.

[FallsLake]

CR,

 Agreed 100%. That's why I enjoy experiencing wintry precip. in the SE US much more than when I experience it in more wintry climates, where it is sort of ordinary. Actually, I'd prefer to experience 1" of snow in Savannah or 3" of snow in Atlanta to, say, 12" in Philly.

I've also lived in colder climates and your right; winter precip is not special where it is common. I've had people tell me I should move to Alaska, but I reply I would learn to hate the stuff and I really don't want that. We actually live in a very special place on earth. It's one of the few places on earth where you can get a hurricane and a blizzard in the same year(at the same place).

[Jaguars]

Last few GFS runs in the long term seem to be pushing bulk of cold air further west during the period.  I know it's a ways off but I get concerned when I see the makings of a trough into Southern California.  Usually doom for the deep south.

[FallsLake]

Bang!

 

That HP is still too far north as the confluence sets up too far north.  It allows the low to scoot too far NW and reform too far to the NE.  WAA all over the place.  Northern MA is in the game, like you said.

Definitly not trying to wish cast this thing, but if the high does come in stronger; this system would have something the last system did not--an inital cold air mass in place(dew points will drop to the teens the next couple of days). Again I totally know this is a long shot but it has got my interest.  

[franklin NCwx]

Last few GFS runs in the long term seem to be pushing bulk of cold air further west during the period.  I know it's a ways off but I get concerned when I see the makings of a trough into Southern California.  Usually doom for the deep south.

This is what the ensembles have been showing for the last few runs now. We need to get rid of the ridge over Scandinavia.

[burgertime]

Euro looks very CADish for next Monday. Has snow for parts of VA getting close to the NC border. Probably will be gone tomorrow but there could be potential there. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I've also lived in colder climates and your right; winter precip is not special where it is common. I've had people tell me I should move to Alaska, but I reply I would learn to hate the stuff and I really don't want that. We actually live in a very special place on earth. It's one of the few places on earth where you can get a hurricane and a blizzard in the same year(at the same place).

where the heck do you live? I can't think of anywhere in the southeast that has had a hurricane and blizzard in the same year. The northeast coast is the only place I could see that happening.

[GaWx]

where the heck do you live? I can't think of anywhere in the southeast that has had a hurricane and blizzard in the same year. The northeast coast is the only place I could see that happening.

 

 Charleston in 1989 may count. Hugo was in Sep. The great deep SE coastal snow was in Dec. of 1989, and it was a windy storm with blowing and drifting. I don't know if it would officially count as a blizzard to be fair. Btu it was pretty dang close from what I understand.

[FallsLake]

where the heck do you live? I can't think of anywhere in the southeast that has had a hurricane and blizzard in the same year. The northeast coast is the only place I could see that happening.

Near Raleigh NC -- We're had hurricanes cross right over the city (like Hazel & Fran) & we've had our share of large winter storms. **we had the 2 foot storm in 2001 but I think the 1980 would have met the criteria of blizzard(high winds, low temps with heavy snow):

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19960906/

[tazaroo]

I've also lived in colder climates and your right; winter precip is not special where it is common. I've had people tell me I should move to Alaska, but I reply I would learn to hate the stuff and I really don't want that. We actually live in a very special place on earth. It's one of the few places on earth where you can get a hurricane and a blizzard in the same year(at the same place).

 

I also agree with this.  I know this is getting in banter territory.   I lived in a condo on top of Sugar Mt Ski resort at 5000' in Banner Elk, NC before for a year.   It snows a lot there even when they are not calling for it to be close at other Mt locations such as Boone.  the weather there is similar to upstate NY or Southern Canada as far as averages.   I enjoyed the winter weather  still but nothing like I do here.  It was fun to experience 19 below 0  with extreme wind chills and a high of 0 for a day but I wouldn't want it often.  I think I would enjoy a climate more like Central VA better than Central NC though as it is almost to hard to get it right here.

[Poimen]

where the heck do you live? I can't think of anywhere in the southeast that has had a hurricane and blizzard in the same year. The northeast coast is the only place I could see that happening.

 

Until three years ago I was a life-long resident of the Outer Banks. In 2003 we had a blizzard in January and then took a hit from Hurricane Isabel in September.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Near Raleigh NC -- We're had hurricanes cross right over the city (like Hazel & Fran) & we've had our share of large winter storms. **we had the 2 foot storm in 2001 but I think the 1980 would have met the criteria of blizzard(high winds, low temps with heavy snow):

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19960906/

 

I'm not sure where to find it but Jan 1996 we had an awesome snowstorm in NC .I believe it was the 5th and 6th . I mentioned this since you showed the Fran hurricane the same year.