tnweathernut Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice post WOW, thanks for the research. Hoping we can have a cold and snowy January. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I looked up weather history for Charlotte... December of 1978 and January of 79 yielded only 0.40 inches of snow (all in January), but February of '79 had almost 15 inches and Greensboro over 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I looked up weather history for Charlotte... December of 1978 and January of 79 yielded only 0.40 inches of snow (all in January), but February of '79 had almost 15 inches and Greensboro over 16. It's been forever since we've had a major storm in February (around here, anyways). The last one I can think of was February 2004... There's been a few marginal February events (2008, 2010 - which was great further south, and 2012, for example), but nothing over 2.5" here in forever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's been forever since we've had a major storm in February (around here, anyways). The last one I can think of was February 2004... There's been a few marginal February events (2008, 2010 - which was great further south, and 2012, for example), but nothing over 2.5" here in forever... Such a double edged sword. For us to get a true snow here in the Midlands ofSC (climo wise) we need a low cutting across central florida to keep the WAA away as the cold air is in place. For you guys, you need it to cut up through Savannah or even a bit further North through the Midlands and out to sea to get the moisture there. ;( Sometimes we can both get lucky with a bomb off the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I looked up weather history for Charlotte... December of 1978 and January of 79 yielded only 0.40 inches of snow (all in January), but February of '79 had almost 15 inches and Greensboro over 16. If you move forward into Feb for those years, there is a composite -NAO signature and the AK block retrogrades back over the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It appears everyone got in on the fun around here in 1979, it was the President's Day storm http://www.glenallenweather.com/historylinks/SnowstormRank/22ndFeb17-19-1979.jpg (not the best map tho) If there's a case study I'd be interested in seeing it, but just the average google search didn't turn it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I believe 79 was a snowstorm with temps in the teens almost throughout the whole event. The coldest temps we've seen in a snowstorm since then would be 1/88 and 1/03. It's a shame our obs thread for 1/03 on the old, old board is lost to the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It appears everyone got in on the fun around here in 1979, it was the President's Day storm http://www.glenallenweather.com/historylinks/SnowstormRank/22ndFeb17-19-1979.jpg (not the best map tho) If there's a case study I'd be interested in seeing it, but just the average google search didn't turn it up. Best I can find ya: (it references the storm) ;/ http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS brings the low back south over Central Ga. And then transfers to a low off the coast.. super warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Drilling down a bit further... if we look at both the WPO and EPO with Dec values less than -100... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One more analysis of the Pres Storm 1979... takes a while to load (better than the first link and super detailed): http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281984%29112%3C2148%3AADAOTP%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Drilling down a bit further... if we look at both the WPO and EPO with Dec values less than -100... 2010 keeps showing up. Earlier that Feb in 2010 we had a good storm in SC. I think you guys had a Christmas Storm later that year? We didn't get much of anything off that one. But interesting none-the-less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I believe 79 was a snowstorm with temps in the teens almost throughout the whole event. The coldest temps we've seen in a snowstorm since then would be 1/88 and 1/03. It's a shame our obs thread for 1/03 on the old, old board is lost to the internet. 79 storm is the coldest snowstorm I know of here, ever. Even colder than 1899 blizzard. Charlotte had midday temps in the low teens with snow...in upper single digits in Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One more analysis of the Pres Storm 1979... takes a while to load (better than the first link and super detailed): http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281984%29112%3C2148%3AADAOTP%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Interesting thing about that storm is that when you look at the 500mb map, you'd never think that a such a storm is occuring.... Another interesting note is that this kind of setup looks familiar to the pattern we're seeing now. Not saying it's going to facilitate into something like this but it goes to show that you don't need a perfect teleconnection scenario to get what we're after here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 2010 keeps showing up. Earlier that Feb in 2010 we had a good storm in SC. I think you guys had a Christmas Storm later that year? We didn't get much of anything off that one. But interesting none-the-less. 2009-2010 might be the best winter I've ever experienced. Constant threats, lots of snow, two big storms........ In the winter of 2009-2010 alone, you had: 12/18-12/19: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ 1/29-1/30: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ 2/5-2/6 (Snowmageddon: pre-dawn snow to 33/RN in the northern Piedmont): http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100205/accum.20100205.gif, http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100205/accum.freezing.20100205.gif 2/12-2/13 (The storm you alude to ... there was a lot more down in SC): http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100212/accum.20100212.gif 2/15: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20100215.gif 2/24-2/25: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20100224.gif 3/2: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100302/ (This is the storm where Jeremy (eyewall) filmed this near Sanford, NC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81A5N76x4rw) I ended up pretty close to 20" that winter. There was hardly a moment when there wasn't something to track that winter. It was epic. Of course, 2010 ended up working out pretty nicely for the Mid-Atlantic, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Both the 2/1979 storm and the 1/88 storm produced ~4" of mainly IP in ATL. That is the equivalent of ~9-12" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I believe 79 was a snowstorm with temps in the teens almost throughout the whole event. The coldest temps we've seen in a snowstorm since then would be 1/88 and 1/03. It's a shame our obs thread for 1/03 on the old, old board is lost to the internet. You are correct, in Greenwood, SC, in the middle of February, you know, that time of winter that some people think the sun angle is getting too high for really cold and, or accumulating snow...... it was 15 degrees all day long with heavy snow, eventually turning to sleet. For sure one of, if not the coldest snowstorms I've ever seen. And in Early January 1988 it was in the upper teens all day with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Both the 2/1979 storm and the 1/88 storm produced ~4" of mainly IP in ATL. That is the equivalent of ~9-12" of snow. And I've been waiting for either one of them to return ever since Best sledding of my life....both of them. Two indelible memories I'll have when I'm drooling. But I'm well ready for another...this could be the year! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS brings the low back south over Central Ga. And then transfers to a low off the coast.. super warm though I keep wanting it to come out earlier, and down in Fla, but it ends up looking like a cad set up. Which is fine, if it's cold enough, and south enough T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro has a nice Rainstorm for most of us. Looks like it cools down towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro has a nice Rainstorm for most of us. Looks like it cools down towards the end of the run. Same old thing, we get moisture it warms up and we get cold its usually cold chasing the moisture or cold and dry. threading a needle isn't the phrase for it, its even more than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Same old thing, we get moisture it warms up and we get cold its usually cold chasing the moisture or cold and dry. threading a needle isn't the phrase for it, its even more than that! That's simply because all the storms that come our way will shoot up to our North and west....cutters. There just won't be anything REAL to track for the SE until we get something to keep the track along the gulf...50/50 low in the right place, or blocking. If not, it's just always going to be rinse and repeat. Warm/wet storm, then cold front after. Warm/wet storm, colf front after. I'm moving on from an early December surprise watch to the standard January hope. Hopefully Wow's analogs come to fruition next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That's simply because all the storms that come our way will shoot up to our North and west....cutters. There just won't be anything REAL to track for the SE until we get something to keep the track along the gulf...50/50 low in the right place, or blocking. If not, it's just always going to be rinse and repeat. Warm/wet storm, then cold front after. Warm/wet storm, colf front after. I'm moving on from an early December surprise watch to the standard January hope. Hopefully Wow's analogs come to fruition next month. Yes, I do realize we are in Dec. and early Dec. at that. Our chances of threading that needle is much better in about another two or three weeks and hopefully we can thread it two or three times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The standard teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) continue to remain unfavorably aligned for the foreseeable future, with the AO set to spike very positive again. The MJO continues to be a non-factor. The CFS continues to back off of the extreme coast to coast warmth in its January prog, now showing a cool west, slighly warm east. It still shows drier conditions, though. Week 1 looks below average in the east with Weeks 2 and 3 above and now Week 4 back to around normal. Canada looks very cold for Weeks 3 and 4. Precipitation looks near or above normal for the SE through the period. The synopitic pattern forecasted by all guidance that I looked at continued to show an unfavorable pattern for sustained warmth and for winter weather. The most favored outcome appears to be near or slightly below normal in the temp department with precipitation events preceded by warm-ups and followed by cool-downs. The 240 Euro run from last night illustrates both the reason that SE snowstorms are not favored as well as why 240 maps are fairly worthless anyway (if you compare to yesterday's 12Z zonal run). The bottom line is that we can certainly have a winter storm in this pattern, but with the current synopitic alignment (and the forecasted alignment) of the teleconnections, it's going to be an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The standard teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) continue to remain unfavorably aligned for the foreseeable future, with the AO set to spike very positive again. The MJO continues to be a non-factor. The CFS continues to back off of the extreme coast to coast warmth in its January prog, now showing a cool west, slighly warm east. It still shows drier conditions, though. Week 1 looks below average in the east with Weeks 2 and 3 above and now Week 4 back to around normal. Canada looks very cold for Weeks 3 and 4. Precipitation looks near or above normal for the SE through the period. The synopitic pattern forecasted by all guidance that I looked at continued to show an unfavorable pattern for sustained warmth and for winter weather. The most favored outcome appears to be near or slightly below normal in the temp department with precipitation events preceded by warm-ups and followed by cool-downs. The 240 Euro run from last night illustrates both the reason that SE snowstorms are not favored as well as why 240 maps are fairly worthless anyway (if you compare to yesterday's 12Z zonal run). The bottom line is that we can certainly have a winter storm in this pattern, but with the current synopitic alignment (and the forecasted alignment) of the teleconnections, it's going to be an uphill battle. Great explanation!! Your map illustrates why we've at least been average temp wise but with unfavorable AO, PNA, and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great explanation!! Your map illustrates why we've at least been average temp wise but with unfavorable AO, PNA, and NAO. Thanks! It's a 240 hour prog, which is likely to greatly change at 12z, but who cares. It does help to illustrate the progressive nature of the pattern and the general direction we're likely to maintain for a while. With good timing, given that we have seen and will continue to see arctic highs come down, the chance for ice (favored over snow, imo) will be there, even though there's no clear storm threat showing up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thanks! It's a 240 hour prog, which is likely to greatly change at 12z, but who cares. It does help to illustrate the progressive nature of the pattern and the general direction we're likely to maintain for a while. With good timing, given that we have seen and will continue to see arctic highs come down, the chance for ice (favored over snow, imo) will be there, even though there's no clear storm threat showing up yet. Ensembles are going back to wanting to drop the trough into the plains/west area instead of more east. It sure would be nice to get a -nao. It can't stay positive forever. Of course, it could repeat like the back half of last winter and spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thanks! It's a 240 hour prog, which is likely to greatly change at 12z, but who cares. It does help to illustrate the progressive nature of the pattern and the general direction we're likely to maintain for a while. With good timing, given that we have seen and will continue to see arctic highs come down, the chance for ice (favored over snow, imo) will be there, even though there's no clear storm threat showing up yet. Good point. Until we can get the progressive flow to slow down and get some blocking we will most likely continue with these little events. Its going to be hard to get a good snow thump from a progressive flow. I hope it slows down but if it don't then we will likely seen a continuation of what we've had going all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thanks! It's a 240 hour prog, which is likely to greatly change at 12z, but who cares. It does help to illustrate the progressive nature of the pattern and the general direction we're likely to maintain for a while. With good timing, given that we have seen and will continue to see arctic highs come down, the chance for ice (favored over snow, imo) will be there, even though there's no clear storm threat showing up yet. Meh, I highly doubt any ice other than for VA and north in this set up. Cold just won't stay put even if it's present when the moisture gets here. Just gets eroded away like it always does. Great map though, shows why we're not in a position for a winter storm for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great post and great map CR! I was thinking the same thing when I saw the indices this morning. It appears they have taken a step backward from yesterday which had been a step forward. I was hoping the PNA would continue yesterday's trend of members in strong agreement of a move into + territory. Today they head toward +, but then disagree in the LR. It appears to me that we are looking at more of what we are experiencing this week. Cool, but not cold to mild, but not warm. I have experienced MUCH worse in December, but I know most folks are hoping for much better. Good news is that it appears that we will have plenty opportunities for precipitation even if it is in the liquid form for most of us. Maybe some the analogs that are being mentioned will prove true as we head toward the end of the month and into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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