Batman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Oh, don't get me wrong; I'd rather have it negative. What I don't know is why sometimes, like last year, the -AO didn't help, and like this year, a ++AO isn't hurting too bad. This year, we have the -EPO and -WPO, so apparently, they're negating the ++AO to a large degree. That leads me to *believe* that when other specific signals are present, that it's effects are somewhat negated. Is that a wrong idea? In general, assuming no overriding factors are present, it is an important signal for the SE. My thoughts exactly. Of course, my thoughts on this really aren't worth that much. I would much rather have the a -AO, but it appears that it is not a necessity for cold especially if the other factors mentioned are in our favor. I think the folks in Texas will tell you that it does not take a -AO for the cold to get to them. As has been mentioned previously, we had some pretty steep dips in the AO last winter, but did not have much t show for it. I think the most encouraging thing I see right now is agreement of all of the members on the rise of the PNA. This, if true, could lead to a deeper dip in the jet in the SE. Now if we could just get some Atlantic blocking to show up, maybe we could hold it for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The Euro looks to be headed in a decent direction past day 7. Certainly not seeing a torch in our future. For those interested the Euro has the storm Sunday into Monday more of a Miller B/ frontal passage. Looks very much like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those interested the Euro has the storm Sunday into Monday more of a Miller B/ frontal passage. Looks very much like the GFS. Thats what several paid forecasters are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Still a good bit of variability on the 12z GFS mems for the upcomg weekend, with a general consensus towards interaction between the streams, drawing the leading surface wave up the TN Valley, and possible transfer to a more potent storm off N NE. Big difference from 24 hours ago is the HP yesterday's Euro had SE Canada is now coming down into the Plains. Source region is very cold, >-30C at 850, so there could be a sig artic outbreak in the northern plains to Lakes. Pattern looks to remain active through at-least Christmas, and this weekend is still a ways from being fully resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 My thoughts exactly. Of course, my thoughts on this really aren't worth that much. I would much rather have the a -AO, but it appears that it is not a necessity for cold especially if the other factors mentioned are in our favor. I think the folks in Texas will tell you that it does not take a -AO for the cold to get to them. As has been mentioned previously, we had some pretty steep dips in the AO last winter, but did not have much t show for it. I think the most encouraging thing I see right now is agreement of all of the members on the rise of the PNA. This, if true, could lead to a deeper dip in the jet in the SE. Now if we could just get some Atlantic blocking to show up, maybe we could hold it for awhile. Not on this run of the Euro unfortunately. About as ++ as it gets the way it looks to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The Euro looks to be headed in a decent direction past day 7. Certainly not seeing a torch in our future. The cold is decidedly on our side of the hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The cold is decidedly on our side of the hemisphere agree, it's nice to see since witnessing it on the other side for the better part of the last 2+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is close for us upstate and N GA folks for end of next weekend! But we know how it will change this far out! All that map is showing is typical post frontal flurries in Middle Tennessee and Northern Alabama. The GFS is nowhere close to showing snow for anywhere outside of the mountains in the Carolinas through Day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Cold is bottled up in Canada. Zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Of course, that could be a temporary zonal pattern but there is no driving force to get the cold air down to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Cold is bottled up in Canada. Zonal. Wouldn't be there long with that -WPO block in place. That's your driving force right there. Jet is already tightening on the front end of the lobe. And dare I see abv normal heights over N greenland and Santa's house? I predict that kind of setup would build a nice PV over SE Canada. Fingers crossed for a change in the AO/NAO by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 All that map is showing is typical post frontal flurries in Middle Tennessee and Northern Alabama. The GFS is nowhere close to showing snow for anywhere outside of the mountains in the Carolinas through Day 16. Looks to me like it's showing ZR in NE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks to me like it's showing ZR in NE GANot sure exactly where, but I was thinking the same. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks to me like it's showing ZR in NE GA He is right, its mainly just flurries outside of 4000' along the nc/tn border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks to me like it's showing ZR in NE GAWords of advice...don't go by those maps 99.9% of the time they are useless. Read and listen to what these folks say when they break down the model runs. If NC isn't all wound up about a "system/frontal passage" then you/me/burrell and Ne Ga folks have zilch to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Words of advice...don't go by those maps 99.9% of the time they are useless. Read and listen to what these folks say when they break down the model runs. If NC isn't all wound up about a "system/frontal passage" then you/me/burrell and Ne Ga folks have zilch to look forward to. I disagree to and extent, I've known us at times well quite a few times that we've seen winter precip and NC see nothing! Not saying that happens often but it does happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is close for us upstate and N GA folks for end of next weekend! But we know how it will change this far out!This is the same gfs time and what you should be looking at....Nada! Not trying to be a downer but trying to keep you grounded a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I still would like to know where NWS GSP is getting this, does anyone see this on the models? For upstate... Friday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Of course, that could be a temporary zonal pattern but there is no driving force to get the cold air down to us. Yeah I'm thinking temporary, only because so far this winter it doesn't seem to be a problem of eventual cold getting shot down to us...regardless of the means, we'll see what the ens says but I don't give much credit to that 240hr frame on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just based on some analogs of -EPO winters, in which the EPO bottomed out in December. The preceding January was cold in the east in with a pretty strong signal for high latitude blocking in Feb. Really confident with a back loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just based on some analogs of -EPO winters, in which the EPO bottomed out in December. The preceding January was cold in the east in with a pretty strong signal for high latitude blocking in Feb. Really confident with a back loaded winter. I don't know if you have heard of Joe D Aleo, but he has shown some nice analogs for the January Feb, timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wouldn't be there long with that -WPO block in place. That's your driving force right there. Jet is already tightening on the front end of the lobe. And dare I see abv normal heights over N greenland and Santa's house? I predict that kind of setup would build a nice PV over SE Canada. Fingers crossed for a change in the AO/NAO by Christmas. That would be a great present from Santa Looks to me like it's showing ZR in NE GA Cold chasing moisture.....it's not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wouldn't be there long with that -WPO block in place. That's your driving force right there. Jet is already tightening on the front end of the lobe. And dare I see abv normal heights over N greenland and Santa's house? I predict that kind of setup would build a nice PV over SE Canada. Fingers crossed for a change in the AO/NAO by Christmas. And it has been the catalyst thus far. We've been zonal. That hasn't really changed. The -WPO has been effective at giving me more cold days than warm, as well as 2 rounds of wintry precip. I'd say it's done a decent job so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not sure exactly where, but I was thinking the same. TW Just to clarify guys, I was looking at 240 and thinking it looked decent for hp over New England/SE Canada and some cold air east of the Apps for possible ice. I agree that the maps for late weekend show frontal rain followed by clearing and essentially no snow (except maybe some flurries in the mountains). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Won't clutter with maps and a massive cut and paste. FWIW - CPC is not going SE cold; link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Shrug..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The lack of AO hasn't been so bad for us because we've had such a strong PV over on our side of the world this year. An +AO gives us a more zonal flow, which is pretty much what we've been seeing lately in the upper atmosphere. Surface temps were able to penetrate south due to the very dense cold air. Imagine if we had a -AO and -NAO at the same time that air came in, we'd be jumping up and down for joy! Cold is bottled up in Canada. Zonal. Agree with these. We have this perma, west-based +NAO signature going on (+AO too). Maybe you can sneak in a marginal wintry event, but hard to get a good-un in this kind of pattern. The Euro looks to be headed in a decent direction past day 7. Certainly not seeing a torch in our future. It does look like we will see the eastern and north pacific ridging, with a trough in the east as we move into next week following the weekend storm. Looks to me like a northern stream dominated pattern that would be slightly below normal temp wise, with possible clipper system / mtn upslope chances. From CPC Disco: 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 15 - 19 2013 TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE RECENT ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST, AS DO A GREATER FRACTION OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE COMPARED TO RECENT GEFS RUNS AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Seems to me that the CPC probability scheme is minimizing the depth of the trough in the east in the 6-10 day range. They may be right, but it appears they are hedging on the probability the troughing does not go deep into the SE. I think sometimes I also look at their 6-10 and 8-14 probabilities and weight them too heavily. If they say my area has a 35-40% probability of above average, you could also argue that we have a 55-60% probability of not being above average. Anyway, these maps have not exactly nailed the actual weather the last couple months. I don't think we are going into the ice box next week, but I would say we are as likely to be below average as we are above. Models have been missing temps from 2 days out. I would not put a whole lot of stock on their 6-10 day. Real cold air to the north and real warm are to the south. Hard to tell how the "battleground is going to shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS last few runs hinting at some kind of GOMEX system right before Christmas with cold air rushing in behind. Probably a pipe dream but maybe something worth watching once we approach the mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The big -WPO signature we've had recently got me to run a composite for January for years with average December WPO readings less than -100. We're currently at -234 for the month so far and image we have a good shot at keeping it under -100 by the end of the month given what we're seeing on the model forecasts. The January composite indicates a continued -WPO signal with above avg heights over AK, as well as below avg heights over the east and most of Europe. The AO/NAO regions are neutral. P.S. - While '78 was technically above -100, it was close.. at -97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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