Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[SnowNiner]

I see your 12Z GFS cold and raise you the 12Z European warm.  My, what a difference 12 hours makes.  U-G-L-Y.  At least the coldest air in the NH is in Canada.

 

Hopefully tomorrow that will be gone, quick as the double blocking was gone from this morning till now.  Problem is, that to me looks like a classic +AO and -PNA, which I think matches up well with the possible teleconnections at that time. 

 

I'd be interested in the EURO ensembles to see what they say this afternoon, see if the OP has support.  I'm starting to believe the cold is just not quite going to make it far enouth south and east to do us any good. 

[tnweathernut]

The other side of me remembers the Alaskan Vortex of Doom that stayed put for TWO entire winters, ruining our chance for Pacific help.  If that vortex can be so stubborn, I am hoping the ridging can be equally stubborn.  The SST's in the Pacific look really good right now.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next PDO number is around 0 or even a little positive.

[Cold Rain]

I don't think you are going to get a perfect look each model run, but there is a lot of higher pressures over the top of arctic air coming south (albeit west and central first) throughout that run.  It begins to pull a -NAO, but pushes the ridging east and mutes the blocking that was building around Baffin Island never allowing it to link up with blocking in the Pacific/Alaska and points east and look like yesterday's magical run of the Euro. 

 

I think the general look of blocking over the top of an arctic airmass descending to NA is real, and the Pacific continues to look like it will help us this year.  I am confident of an opportunity or two in December. JMO

 

HM is on board (or becoming more optimistic) for Mid-Atlantic fun from Dec 10-25th.  In mid December, we'd have a pretty good shot here too, as long as the SE ridge doesn't flex.

 

Agreed.  Looking at the western ridge going up in Canada toward the pole would support your position better than mine, probably, regarding extrapolating things out.  I just get a very progressive vibe until we start to see blocking going up...especially when a SE ridge is shown (but as we've noted, that feature may turn out not to be real).

 

  Actually, I think that both the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Euro look a good bit more favorable for cold in the SE and much of the E US sometimes within the 11-15 day period  vs. the 0Z runs.and earlier runs. Extrapolating further the 12Z Euro threatens to bring down bigtime cold as tnweathernut implied. Note the changes in Canada between days 8 and 10 as well as the change vs. the 0Z Euro. Imo, this is the most favorable run of the Euro in a number of days. I'd definitely take these 12Z runs. The bigger Q, of course, is what will actually verify.

 

I went back and looked at the progression...see above comments.  Not sure I'd take this run over the last one, but I can see your point of view too.

 

Hopefully tomorrow that will be gone, quick as the double blocking was gone from this morning till now.  Problem is, that to me looks like a classic +AO and -PNA, which I think matches up well with the possible teleconnections at that time. 

 

I'd be interested in the EURO ensembles to see what they say this afternoon, see if the OP has support.  I'm starting to believe the cold is just not quite going to make it far enouth south and east to do us any good. 

 

If you have access to the ensembles and have some time later, stop by and share the details.   I don't know if there are any free sites where one could access the ensemble mean, anymore.  You used to be able to get it from Allan's site, but that's pay per view now.

[pcbjr]

Won't bore you with maps - but CPC is not nice today 

[SnowNiner]

Agreed.  Looking at the western ridge going up in Canada toward the pole would support your position better than mine, probably, regarding extrapolating things out.  I just get a very progressive vibe until we start to see blocking going up...especially when a SE ridge is shown (but as we've noted, that feature may turn out not to be real).

 

 

I went back and looked at the progression...see above comments.  Not sure I'd take this run over the last one, but I can see your point of view too.

 

 

If you have access to the ensembles and have some time later, stop by and share the details.   I don't know if there are any free sites where one could access the ensemble mean, anymore.  You used to be able to get it from Allan's site, but that's pay per view now.

 

Yeah, complete moocher.  That's why I come here and snack off every one else's goods.  Mmmm, free ensembles....

 

Oh, the pattern.  It's warm. 

[Cold Rain]

Yeah, complete moocher. That's why I come here and snack off every one else's goods. Mmmm, free ensembles....

Oh, the pattern. It's warm.

Haha! Ensembles are good.

[GaWx]

Good news. The 12Z Euro ensemble mean for days 11-15 progresses well from day 10 of the 12Z Euro op. 12Z Euro ensemble mean looks good for the SE US in the 11-15. It transitions from above normal day 10 to near normal day 11 to slightly below normal days 12-15. Precip. is above normal with WSW upper flow overrunning cold highs near the surface yielding at least cold rain and the potential for wintry, especially ZR. They are colder than the 0Z Euro ensemble mean for 11-15.

 

 Lots of cold Arctic high pressure to the NW and N feeding cold air down. Two highs come across to our north. Definite wedging potential. Certainly not warm!

[tnweathernut]

Good news. The 12Z Euro ensemble mean for days 11-15 progresses well from day 10 of the 12Z Euro op. 12Z Euro ensemble mean looks good for the SE US in the 11-15. It transitions from above normal day 10 to near normal day 11 to slightly below normal days 12-15. Precip. is above normal with WSW upper flow overrunning cold highs near the surface yielding at least cold rain and the potential for wintry, especially ZR. They are colder than the 0Z Euro ensemble mean for 11-15.

 

 Lots of cold Arctic high pressure to the NW and N feeding cold air down. Two highs come across to our north. Definite wedging potential. Certainly not warm!

I actually felt good about the ensembles before they came out, nice to hear!  And now....................we wait.  lol

[Cold Rain]

Good news. The 12Z Euro ensemble mean for days 11-15 progresses well from day 10 of the 12Z Euro op. 12Z Euro ensemble mean looks good for the SE US in the 11-15. It transitions from above normal day 10 to near normal day 11 to slightly below normal days 12-15. Precip. is above normal with WSW upper flow overrunning cold highs near the surface yielding at least cold rain and the potential for wintry, especially ZR. They are colder than the 0Z Euro ensemble mean for 11-15.

Lots of cold Arctic high pressure to the NW and N feeding cold air down. Two highs come across to our north. Definite wedging potential. Certainly not warm!

Awesome to hear. Thanks for sharing, Larry!

[tnweathernut]

hmmmmmmmmmm, yes please.

 

[SnowNiner]

hmmmmmmmmmm, yes please.

 

12zggemens500mbHeightAnomalyNA252 11262013.gif12zggemens500mbHeightAnomalyNA276 11262013.gif

 

Somebody help me, I need to learn here.  How is that good?  It still looks like the cold is kept up in the mid-west and west with a -PNA; while the SE ridge looks like it flexes.  What am I missing that shows cold in the SE.  Thanks.

[tnweathernut]

Somebody help me, I need to learn here.  How is that good?  It still looks like the cold is kept up in the mid-west and west with a -PNA; while the SE ridge looks like it flexes.  What am I missing that shows cold in the SE.  Thanks.

Ridging clear up through Alaska, cross polar flow and direct discharge of all the cold into Canada and NA, with hints of a -NAO.

 

If you want cold and dry, move it all east a little.  If you want the coldest air on the planet just north of us and the opportunity for overrunning or a storm to develop in the gulf and track northeast I think it looks pretty darn good - especially for an ensemble.

[GaWx]

Somebody help me, I need to learn here.  How is that good?  It still looks like the cold is kept up in the mid-west and west with a -PNA; while the SE ridge looks like it flexes.  What am I missing that shows cold in the SE.  Thanks.

 

1) That GGEM map is for day 11, just at the start of the transition from warmer than normal to colder than normal. It is only slightly above normal there at 500 mb but is actually near normal at 850 mb, closer to the ground with colder low level high pressure coming in under WSW upper flow.

2) The Euro ensemble mean is colder. That's what I was addressing.

3) The GGEM ensemble is warm biased. Also, it isn't as accurate as the Euro ensemble in general.

[superjames1992]

That's pretty much a trough from coast-to-cast.  Interesting look.

[pcbjr]

That's pretty much a trough from coast-to-cast.  Interesting look.

 

 

Just throw some of that down here for 5 or 6 weeks!!!!!!

[HKY18]

I looked at the 11 day gfs super ensemble 500mb analogs, took the top 3 analogs and plotted a surface temp anomaly map for the month of December. And the presence of a SE ridge is apparent.

 

This is the surface temp anomaly for the specific analog dates. Not a bad look, but the possibility of a warm 2nd half of December is shown if you extrapolate the dates 2 weeks farther. I don't know what the ENSO state or other indices were for these analogs. May not be a good match.

[John1122]

This bleeding cold airmasses have trouble making it over both the Cumberland Plateau and then even more so, the Apps. They often spell freezing rain events from the Plateau and points west. Cold rain from Knox to Tri and points east to the spine, then just warm rain on the other side of the Apps. 

[HKY18]

The progression of the pattern through the first and second week of December looks to be very similar to 2008. In general a warm December looks like a decent forecast right now. But with such cold high pressure to the north the threat of ice is still there especially near the middle of the month when the cold anomalies will be just to the west. I'm not home now but I will try to post some of my more in-depth ideas later tonight or tomorrow. I've never really done this before so it will be a good test.

[GaWx]

Fwiw, mainly entertainment, 18Z GFS has major SE winter storm 12/8-9 via overrunning of moist WSW flow over cold Arctic high pressure. There may be a weak Miller A low. This is a great example that shows that very weak Gulf low is enough to cause major SE winter storm. Actually, it is very hard to see an actual closed surface low because it is so weak.

[superjames1992]

Fwiw, mainly entertainment, 18Z GFS has major SE winter storm 12/8-9 via overrunning of moist WSW flow over cold Arctic high pressure. There may be a weak Miller A low. This is a great example that shows that very weak Gulf low is enough to cause major SE winter storm. Actually, it is very hard to see an actual closed surface low because it is so weak.

 

Yes, I see that, as well.  The GFS has been advertising a threat around that period after the cold front for a few days now, so there may be something to it.  We'll see.

 

That would be a pretty major event, verbatim, though surface temperatures are trash, but it's too far out for specifics, anyways.

[FLweather]

Yes, I see that, as well.  The GFS has been advertising a threat around that period after the cold front for a few days now, so there may be something to it.  We'll see.

 

That would be a pretty major event, verbatim, though surface temperatures are trash, but it's too far out for specifics, anyways.

 

 

There is potential for another filzzard about the 3rd.

[griteater]

The other side of me remembers the Alaskan Vortex of Doom that stayed put for TWO entire winters, ruining our chance for Pacific help. If that vortex can be so stubborn, I am hoping the ridging can be equally stubborn.

A +QBO in the lower stratosphere like we are in this winter favors more poleward Aleutian highs like we have been seeing, whereas a -QBO favors more suppressed Aleutians highs (Alaska vortex).

[NCCatawba]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi1m

850 mb Korean Met A winter forecast. December upper right, Jan lower right, Feb upper left, total lower left. BRRR

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi1m

850 mb Korean Met A winter forecast. December upper right, Jan lower right, Feb upper left, total lower left. BRRR

 

I love the Korean model!

[Cold Rain]

^ How awesome would that be. Look at that blocking signature in January!

[Shawn]

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi1m

850 mb Korean Met A winter forecast. December upper right, Jan lower right, Feb upper left, total lower left. BRRR

 

 

Damn, Joe has been making really short videos lately because of the lack of cold for the MA/NE.  He has resorted to showing off Korean models that show cold now.. The storm on the 8th does have merit to an extent.  For a while now the GFS has been showing some type of storm anywhere between the 6th-9th.  Will the event unfold with that look? Probably not.. but it's looking like there will be a storm system of some sort in that time-frame.

[griteater]

If you have access to the ensembles and have some time later, stop by and share the details. I don't know if there are any free sites where one could access the ensemble mean, anymore. You used to be able to get it from Allan's site, but that's pay per view now.

You can get the Euro Ensemble and Euro Op side by side here. Not the best maps but it's there.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013112712!!/

[tnweathernut]

That type of cold would probably equal this at some point

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dsaur]

Larry, does the wsw flow trigger your interest more than any other marker?  All the good ones have it, right?  Does it come standard with other variables, or is that the variable you want to start with?  Does it out rank the weak low? T

[Cold Rain]

You can get the Euro Ensemble and Euro Op side by side here. Not the best maps but it's there.http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013112712!!/

Awesome. Thanks bud!