Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[GaWx]

Be wary of the 1043 mb being modeled for the highest pressure for the NE sfc high at hour 180 on the 0Z Euro. The Euro has a tendency to make these too strong when looking about a week out, thus making it too cold in the SE us when this occurs. Look at the current NE high, which was modeled ~8 mb too high (1036 mb vs. 1044 mb). Of course, the whole setup on this run will likely change markedly between now and then, regardless.

 

 

 Well, here we go again. The 12Z Euro has a 1043 mb high at hour 156 in far southern Quebec while the 12Z GFS has only 1036 mb high. Who do you believe is going to verify more closely? I vote for the weaker 1036 GFS high being closer, if not very close. Therefore, I'm currently looking for future Euro runs to show weaker NE sfc highs on future runs and, therefore, to be warmer in the SE US as we get closer. So, I'm skeptical of that major wintry precip. it is now showing for NE GA, N SC, and much of NC 12/14-15. The GFS pretty much has no wintry precip. I expect the GFS to verify more closely,. Don't get your hopes up so highly on the Euro. It isn't as good as some make it out to be. it does seem to have a bias of making sfc highs too strong in/near the NE US just as it just did for today's event, which the Euro originally had threatening all of the way into N GA, where it is now in the 40's.

[Bsudweather]

Well, here we go again. The 12Z Euro has a 1043 mb high at hour 156 in far southern Quebec while the 12Z GFS has only 1036 mb high. Who do you believe is going to verify more closely? I vote for the weaker 1036 GFS high being closer, if not very close. Therefore, I'm currently looking for future Euro runs to show weaker NE sfc highs on future runs and, therefore, to be warmer in the SE US as we get closer. So, I'm skeptical of that major wintry precip. it is now showing for NE GA, N SC, and much of NC 12/14-15. The GFS pretty much has no wintry precip. I expect the GFS to verify more closely,. Don't get your hopes up so highly on the Euro. It isn't as good as some make it out to be. it does seem to have a bias of making sfc highs too strong in/near the NE US just as it just did for today's event, which the Euro originally had threatening all of the way into N GA, where it is now in the 40's.

Well I think euro did pretty good here as from what maps people was posting was showing little precip here with highs around 36. I'm currently 38 and have had .14" of rain so I'd say euro verified pretty good here.

[Batman]

Who's up for a warm rain next Sunday?!? That's what the 12z GFS is giving you.

If you consider rain and 40s for highs a "warm rain" I guess that is what looks most likely at this point. I would hardly consider that a "warm rain". Most people will welcome the rain and for most people the daytime temps will be below average this week. I have experienced many Decembers IMBY with day after day of sun and 60s. If this is one of the strongest SE ridges ever as some have claimed, I can't imagine how cold and snowy the SE would be if it were not there.

[Shawn]

 Well, here we go again. The 12Z Euro has a 1043 mb high at hour 156 in far southern Quebec while the 12Z GFS has only 1036 mb high. Who do you believe is going to verify more closely? I vote for the weaker 1036 GFS high being closer, if not very close. Therefore, I'm currently looking for future Euro runs to show weaker NE sfc highs on future runs and, therefore, to be warmer in the SE US as we get closer. So, I'm skeptical of that major wintry precip. it is now showing for NE GA, N SC, and much of NC 12/14-15. The GFS pretty much has no wintry precip. I expect the GFS to verify more closely,. Don't get your hopes up so highly on the Euro. It isn't as good as some make it out to be. it does seem to have a bias of making sfc highs too strong in/near the NE US just as it just did for today's event, which the Euro originally had threatening all of the way into N GA, where it is now in the 40's.

 

Yesterday was the first day at I believe 18z into 00z last night runs that the GFS ensembles (all the members) finally took away all wintry chance for KCAE around that period of the Euro's storm.  The GGEM had it, and has finally dropped it starting yesterday.  It looks like the Euro picked it back up to an extent after other guidance says nope.

 

The 12z has two members with winter weather of some sort in KCAE again though.  The two members in question are generally the way way outlier ones that show the "big snows" for small snow events though so grain of salt.

 

The Euro also had much more snow around KCAE back before TG with that storm.. that ended up being a nasty mix sludge event in KCAE.  So it lost for this area at least.

[GaWx]

Well I think euro did pretty good here as from what maps people was posting was showing little precip here with highs around 36. I'm currently 38 and have had .14" of rain so I'd say euro verified pretty good here.

 

 The Euro had a 1044 mb surface high from one week ago for this morning over far southern Quebec. It is verifying at only about 1036 mb. That's my main point. The strength of the NE surface high is of vital importance in modeling how cold the SE gets in these wedging setups. The Euro has done this on a number of occasions when it had a NE high stronger than the model consensus. I'm just trying to keep people wary.

[Marion_NC_WX]

 The Euro had a 1044 mb surface high from one week ago for this morning over far southern Quebec. It is verifying at only about 1036 mb. That's my main point.

 

 

 

Point well taken...a 1044 mb high prob would have done the trick for ice in a lot of interior North Carolina. I do think the positioning in Quebec has also allowed areas like PA, MD and Northern VA to get the higher snow amounts....if a surface high could ever settle over PA or NY, then the focus of heavy precip and cold air would be down into Virginia and the Carolinas.

 

So to say that the Euro could trend northward as we go into next week is a valid point.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles are showing a pretty good pattern after next week. Deep trough coming into the plains/southeast. Positive heights starting to build in southern Greenland. Storm for next week is very weak and pretty much non existent past the Florida panhandle.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

It seems that models for the past while have been showing the SE ridge but as the time draws nearer, the ridge is not there or not as prominent.  I look for this to continue well into the Winter, should be fun times for interior Southeast.

[tnweathernut]

https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/409781528621625344

For the NC crowd......

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[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Queencity a troll? I've been on the weather boards with him since the WWBB days. Trust me he is no troll and very knowledgeable.

 

I know,....... I see him here every winter. I remember him from my few years on Eastern... I was just having a difficult time understanding his logic for the upcoming pattern and he did not tell us his reasoning for a warm December other than the +++AO. Right or wrong I would like to know why he thinks that December will average 50 degrees in CLT.

[packbacker]

GFS Individual members shown a storm but many to warm, hard to get excited about this with marginal cold.

[buckeyefan1]

There's a little bit more than that....haha.

Awwww.....the clown map even slows cae some   

 

Now do you see why we discuss the possibilities of weather?.......... You called for a December with a 50 degree average in CLT just 2 days ago. Earlier today you said that the chance of snow next week was 1 in one hundred thousand. Now you post an analysis of accuweather snowfall maps for your miracle snowstorm? Either one of two things is going on here....1) you are a troll and need to stop 2) You are running for weenie of the year. Which is it?

CLT's average so far this month is 55.7 and that's a +10.7 departure. He will probably be extremely close to his "official" call.

He's far from a troll or a weenie....  

 

 

[rduwx]

I know,....... I see him here every winter. I remember him from my few years on Eastern... I was just having a difficult time understanding his logic for the upcoming pattern and he did not tell us his reasoning for a warm December other than the +++AO. Right or wrong I would like to know why he thinks that December will average 50 degrees in CLT.

That's fine and Queencity is more than knowledgeable enough to give a reason without me having to defend him. I just wanted to speak up about the troll comment.

[JoshM]

I'll take the rain just like with today's event... just keep the moisture coming, eventually we'll thread the needle! Better than cold and dry any day of the week.

[NCSNOW]

As insignificant as they have panned out so far In mby, This will be the 4th chase of the season per euro and euro ensembles if they hold serve the next couple of runs. Could turn out to be a phantom storm who knows. But the possibility of having 4 events of frozen precip prior to 12/15 is impressive to say the least. Of course today's event laid an egg And just the novelty of having event to chase doesn't take the place of actually scoring I.e. Seeing the brown ground turn white for a change in person as opposed to an nfl game or ski slope webcam.

[NCCatawba]

I apologize in advance for the long post but I was 5 posted. Sorry I was hard on the NWS and rode Brad, Ray, Robert, and DT.

 

WOW it really explodes after the 168 hour.  Thanks for posting that.  Is there a bank open on Sunday that I can cash in my foot of snow the Doc has for me?

 

You should have cashed in the 2 feet the euro had for you a few weeks back. Well you may been closer to 20 but 24-32 was within reach. 

 

 

 The Euro had a 1044 mb surface high from one week ago for this morning over far southern Quebec. It is verifying at only about 1036 mb. That's my main point. The strength of the NE surface high is of vital importance in modeling how cold the SE gets in these wedging setups. The Euro has done this on a number of occasions when it had a NE high stronger than the model consensus. I'm just trying to keep people wary.

 

Please do. I have started to notice the problem is not just a problem its a consistent problem. You mentioned this earlier this week so I started watching.

 

 

The snow algorithm maps are comical to say the least...

 

I assume that's the WeatherBell maps posted that showed the 10-plus inch snows in the mountains, meanwhile the Accuweather maps QC noted are about 6 inches.

 

Just looked at the interactive maps wunderground, at most 1-2 inches in the mountains at hour 150.

 

Wunderground verifies way better than Accu or WeatherBell. I don't have the exact reason the algorithms are wrong but DT and others know as they have brought it up many times. May need to ask him on FB. However, they are much better than Wunderground for spitting out maps fast tho if you just don't care about them being right. 

 

 

Euro is showing the SC snow storm now in NC around the same time frame after losing it for 2 days.

 

The NWS seems to like this idea of a wintry storm. I think this time we should probably wait until 96 hours out to make a thread tho. For those don't want this pattern thread focused on this 1 storm why don't we just post the messed up snow algorithm maps in the banter in future runs?

 

 

Why do you come in here with one-liner statements to get everyone stirred up and then wait several hours and do it again? If you gave some reasoning for your warmist thoughts, it would then be acceptable. We realize that the system is rain (verbatim) and the pattern leaves a lot to be desired, but we can explore the possibilities of what would be required to get a winter weather event. Your posts are good examples of trolling, and I am sure the mods would agree with me. Take that stuff somewhere else.

 

 

Just because I'm not here to post a lot about the negatives on our winter weather threats doesn't mean you need to pick on him now. He is not troll I have lurked here for years. Btw, you're not a mod.

 

 

The big SOI drop will help keep the southern branch very active.

 

 

Indeed. Look how all these rains/wintry precip we are going through after a dry Fall. All we need is patience and good timing. If it remains active we are going to get a Winter Storm seeing how its only December 8th!

 

 

 

 

I had a few more posts I wanted to quote but I will wait.

[dsaur]

I'll take the rain just like with today's event... just keep the moisture coming, eventually we'll thread the needle! Better than cold and dry any day of the week.

I'm with you Josh.  I'll take the rain.  The models have been all over with the next maybe.  Sometimes it's a runner, some times crossing Fla.  Sometimes the cold is close, and bitter, sometime further away.  Based on no blocking yet, I think the cad scenario that's shown up a few times is about right, and as always, if it's there, and a bit colder, and the weak low comes up into it.....  Anything's possible.  I'm not discounting until it's a few days off, and still not there.  We've seen cads all summer and they aren't stopping, and until we get hit straight on, I'm fine with Cad.  Heck I'm fine with cads even if we don't get hit head on, lol.  We get clouds and rain, and it feels like winter.  I'm fine with that late week, or for the weekend.  Plenty of time for something to cook off.  Tony

[JoMo]

Hmm...maybe the resolution? I haven't noticed this. It seems like the Euro itself is overdone. I don't have any access of other paid Euro maps at this resolution, so I can't compare them...Does SV maps or something have a lot less here?

 

The map you posted was total snowfall of the period from the 8th to the 16th. If the Euro had multiple snowstorms during that period then the amount of snow that falls for all events would be counted.  The map is a straight 10:1 ratio meaning if 0.5" of QPF falls and it's cold enough for snow, the map will read 5" of snow. If the QPF in the output isn't correct, then the snow amount won't be correct either. In my area last week, the Euro nailed down a couple of locations when it came to snowfall, but was way off in areas where dry air won out and the model overproduced QPF/snow. 

[jburns]

 

 

Wunderground verifies way better than Accu or WeatherBell. I don't have the exact reason the algorithms are wrong but DT and others know as they have brought it up many times. May need to ask him on FB. However, they are much better than Wunderground for spitting out maps fast tho if you just don't care about them being right. 

 

 

 

I definitely think you should start communicating with DT.

 

 

 

Oops, I almost forgot the most important part.  Can I watch?

[tnweathernut]

Larry Cosgrove is on the colder and stormy bandwagon.

He's also bullish on the cold coming back for much of the US

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[metalicwx366]

"cold sicking around for se texas???”

[Bsudweather]

"cold sicking around for se texas???”

sounds like they may have the flu!

[packbacker]

The Euro ENS mean precip output matches the OP, for a day 7 threat that's impressive, it's warmer than the Op for RDU but looks cold enough for GSO and points west. It does take the storm up the coast, unlike the Op, and hits the MA hard with snow. That would be the 3rd winter event for the MA in a 7 day period, looks like this will be another magical winter for the MA.

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth still saying this winter is going to be a big one with no end in sight to the cold.

[tnweathernut]

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[tnweathernut]

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[Batman]

Have we finally seen enough model support in the last couple days to entertain the possibility that the SE is not going to torch the rest of December? Not saying we will have wall to wall cold. Not saying models can't or won't change, but the LR trends have been much better the last couple days. Looks like the models are seeing another artic push and this time it could be centered further east. In the meantime, everyone enjoy the rain. Especially those of you that had been getting missed the last several weeks.

[WeatherNC]

I do not see a strong signal indicating we torch for a period, at-least through ~Christmas. At the same time, the mechanisms needed to lock in the cold are not really there either. The upcoming week looks to avg slightly below on temps for many in the SE, today was much below ith a high of 37. There are still another 3 weeks left in the month, best guess is December ends up near avg (for most) with respect to temps, precip is slightly above.

[griteater]

It's a contentious setup.  Without a good block, we need the northern stream to press the heights to the south in order to have the cold air, but that brings the squash scenario into play and no southern stream system of consequence.  Have the northern stream relax a bit to get the storm, and you lose the cold air.  It brings the perfect timing factor into play even more so than normal.  The one thing we have going right now is the big Alaska ridge (-EPO) that has deposited a lot of cold air into S Canada and across the northern tier, and is available to be tapped if the timing is excellent.

 

My opinions about the late week / weekend system remain the same.  It looks like now we have leaned more toward the bolded scenario.

[WeatherNC]

Another thing to keep in mind, the lowest heights in the NH are just to our north over central and eastern Canada with that massive PV. I have seen some graphics take it down to 474 at H5. It does not appear to be weakening or retro grading back towards the pole anytime soon. When the jet does buckle, big time cold comes down, as we saw this previous week in the western states.