FallsLake Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yea but we know that will probably change 100 times between now and thurs! Lol. But hopefully it will catch on to something in a few runs! Also it looks like the NAM may be doing a little better with the ice event today than the GFS. But I could be wrong on that but that's the way it looks. The one thing we need is some blocking. The NAM and GFS actually look close at hour 84 with the NAM (maybe) trying to push the energy out quicker. But at this stage I would have to go with the GFS until we get some more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The one thing we need is some blocking. The NAM and GFS actually look close at hour 84 with the NAM (maybe) trying to push the energy out quicker. But at this stage I would have to go with the GFS until we get some more runs. I agree! But with a HP to the north wouldn't that setup another CAD situation and that's where our cold could come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Who's up for a warm rain next Sunday?!? That's what the 12z GFS is giving you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Who's up for a warm rain next Sunday?!? That's what the 12z GFS is giving you. Yea until it changes as we all know they will and do this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yea until it changes as we all know they will and do this far out! It will more than likely trend towards a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It will more than likely trend towards a cold rain. Haha would not surprise me lol! But maybe not hopefully something can emerge from this. I'm dealing with a cold rain today and the last event as well! Time for us to get something real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Who's up for a warm rain next Sunday?!? That's what the 12z GFS is giving you. Why do you come in here with one-liner statements to get everyone stirred up and then wait several hours and do it again? If you gave some reasoning for your warmist thoughts, it would then be acceptable. We realize that the system is rain (verbatim) and the pattern leaves a lot to be desired, but we can explore the possibilities of what would be required to get a winter weather event. Your posts are good examples of trolling, and I am sure the mods would agree with me. Take that stuff somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Southern slider still showing up on the 12z euro. Looks cold enough in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Who's up for a warm rain next Sunday?!? That's what the 12z GFS is giving you.As long as its dry on Saturday. Heading to pigeon forge for the day. Would like to enjoy the day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Southern slider still showing up on the 12z euro. Looks cold enough in the mtns. Have you seen the entire run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Southern slider still showing up on the 12z euro. Looks cold enough in the mtns. Have you seen the entire run? I haven't, have you? Details? Still flattening the SE ridge? Any hints of blocking? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Have you seen the entire run? Really deepens after 168 and stalls there, pounds NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks like central nc and eastern come out best. Does not deepen until it hits the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Have you seen the entire run?not that great for you and I precip wise. Gets going to late. I'm sure it will change ensembles show a southern slider no cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 At hour 168, has a general 2-5 inches in WNC, haven't seen past this hour yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 At hour 168, has a general 2-5 inches in WNC, haven't seen past this hour yet. There's a little bit more than that....haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I haven't, have you? Details? Still flattening the SE ridge? Any hints of blocking? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looks like a pretty good winter storm for central and eastern NC as already mentioned. Really winds up at end of run. We will see if it holds over the next few runs. Without hyping too much, goes outside of Hatteras and deepens over Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 There's a little bit more than that....haha. WOW it really explodes after the 168 hour. Thanks for posting that. Is there a bank open on Sunday that I can cash in my foot of snow the Doc has for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 There's a little bit more than that....haha. I still have a hard time trusting WxBell snow maps. They always seem overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I still have a hard time trusting WxBell snow maps. They always seem overdone. I'm not sure if they're too bad providing there are no P-type issues. They apparently don't know the difference between snow, sleet, freezing rain, or even rain sometimes, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm not sure if they're too bad providing there are no P-type issues.That's the problem. They're not necessarily overdone if column is supportive. But it also takes sleet into account so the extent on the outer edges is very overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I still have a hard time trusting WxBell snow maps. They always seem overdone. Hmm...maybe the resolution? I haven't noticed this. It seems like the Euro itself is overdone. I don't have any access of other paid Euro maps at this resolution, so I can't compare them...Does SV maps or something have a lot less here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I still have a hard time trusting WxBell snow maps. They always seem overdone. 850's were marginal east of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 FWIW, the accuweather maps show 6" across most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The snow algorithm maps are comical to say the least... I assume that's the WeatherBell maps posted that showed the 10-plus inch snows in the mountains, meanwhile the Accuweather maps QC noted are about 6 inches. Just looked at the interactive maps wunderground, at most 1-2 inches in the mountains at hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The snow algorithm maps are comical to say the least... I assume that's the WeatherBell maps posted that showed the 10-plus inch snows in the mountains, meanwhile the Accuweather maps QC noted are about 6 inches. Just looked at the interactive maps wunderground, at most 1-2 inches in the mountains at hour 150. Yeah I'd like to know specifically what goes into each, if you find out let me know. I always knew AccuPro maps were conservative but I thought it was because of the resolution, when I had the trial I didn't really like their maps. The snow map I posted from WxBell is at 12km. Since it says 10:1 ratio I would hope that's what is displayed, no sense in more than that going into a snowfall map really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro is showing the SC snow storm now in NC around the same time frame after losing it for 2 days. The weatherbell maps along with others take into account any frozen precip as snow. It's just how it is. Ryan Maue has been asked about it.. and not sure what his final conclusion was... make sure to use the 0.125KM Euro, not the fast one that updates. Either way, cut all those totals for actual snow in half. I checked the thicknesses and the 540 is definiely coming to the border of SC for NC when a small batch of precip is coming through, but 10 inches is way over done for some. The "snow" you see is mainly a mix for KCAE if even that. Lets say it's a rain, snow, and sleet mix. Well the Euro maps at WxBell at least (maybe all of them..) will still add the sleet and snow to the snowfall totals even though rain is with it. If that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro is showing the SC snow storm now in NC around the same time frame after losing it for 2 days. The weatherbell maps along with others take into account any frozen precip as snow. It's just how it is. Ryan Maue has been asked about it.. and not sure what his final conclusion was... make sure to use the 0.125KM Euro, not the fast one that updates. Either way, cut all those totals for actual snow in half. I checked the thicknesses and the 540 is definiely coming to the border of SC for NC when a small batch of precip is coming through, but 10 inches is way over done for some. The "snow" you see is mainly a mix for KCAE if even that. Lets say it's a rain, snow, and sleet mix. Well the Euro maps at WxBell at least (maybe all of them..) will still add the sleet and snow to the snowfall totals even though rain is with it. If that makes sense. I can't get the euro, can you tell me how far into the upstate it's showing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I can't get the euro, can you tell me how far into the upstate it's showing snow? It's showing too much snow honestly. If you want to go by the flawed (it seems) totals, anywhere from 2-5 inches in spots of the Upstate. If you consider the upstate being the top of SC that are under the Charlotte area and across, they are the winners. GSP even shows less. But it doesn't matter until we figure out if these maps are flawed or if it's just all the Euro model images from any source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Okay update guys. I just took a look at EuroWx's maps.. the max shown for anyone in the SE on the pictures is 4-5 inches in a small area above CLT. Around 1 inch close to GSP, 2 Inches in upper SC into some of NC, and that area around charlotte to the North.. 3 inches except for that little bullseye. I'll contact Ryan and see what could possibly be done about these. <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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