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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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Yea but we know that will probably change 100 times between now and thurs! Lol. But hopefully it will catch on to something in a few runs! Also it looks like the NAM may be doing a little better with the ice event today than the GFS. But I could be wrong on that but that's the way it looks.

The one thing we need is some blocking. The NAM and GFS actually look close at hour 84 with the NAM (maybe) trying to push the energy out quicker. But at this stage I would have to go with the GFS until we get some more runs.

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The one thing we need is some blocking. The NAM and GFS actually look close at hour 84 with the NAM (maybe) trying to push the energy out quicker. But at this stage I would have to go with the GFS until we get some more runs.

I agree! But with a HP to the north wouldn't that setup another CAD situation and that's where our cold could come from?

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Who's up for a warm rain next Sunday?!? That's what the 12z GFS is giving you.

 

Why do you come in here with one-liner statements to get everyone stirred up and then wait several hours and do it again? If you gave some reasoning for your warmist thoughts, it would then be acceptable. We realize that the system is rain (verbatim) and the pattern leaves a lot to be desired, but we can explore the possibilities of what would be required to get a winter weather event. Your posts are good examples of trolling, and I am sure the mods would agree with me. Take that stuff somewhere else.

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I haven't, have you? Details? Still flattening the SE ridge? Any hints of blocking?

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Looks like a pretty good winter storm for central and eastern NC as already mentioned. Really winds up at end of run. We will see if it holds over the next few runs. Without hyping too much, goes outside of Hatteras and deepens over Gulf Stream.

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I still have a hard time trusting WxBell snow maps. They always seem overdone.

Hmm...maybe the resolution? I haven't noticed this. It seems like the Euro itself is overdone. I don't have any access of other paid Euro maps at this resolution, so I can't compare them...Does SV maps or something have a lot less here?

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The snow algorithm maps are comical to say the least...

 

I assume that's the WeatherBell maps posted that showed the 10-plus inch snows in the mountains, meanwhile the Accuweather maps QC noted are about 6 inches.

 

Just looked at the interactive maps wunderground, at most 1-2 inches in the mountains at hour 150.

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The snow algorithm maps are comical to say the least...

 

I assume that's the WeatherBell maps posted that showed the 10-plus inch snows in the mountains, meanwhile the Accuweather maps QC noted are about 6 inches.

 

Just looked at the interactive maps wunderground, at most 1-2 inches in the mountains at hour 150.

Yeah I'd like to know specifically what goes into each, if you find out let me know. I always knew AccuPro maps were conservative but I thought it was because of the resolution, when I had the trial I didn't really like their maps. The snow map I posted from WxBell is at 12km. Since it says 10:1 ratio I would hope that's what is displayed, no sense in more than that going into a snowfall map really.

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Euro is showing the SC snow storm now in NC around the same time frame after losing it for 2 days.

 

The weatherbell maps along with others take into account any frozen precip as snow.  It's just how it is.  Ryan Maue has been asked about it.. and not sure what his final conclusion was... make sure to use the 0.125KM Euro, not the fast one that updates.  Either way, cut all those totals for actual snow in half.

 

I checked the thicknesses and the 540 is definiely coming to the border of SC for NC when a small batch of precip is coming through, but 10 inches is way over done for some.  The "snow" you see is mainly a mix for KCAE if even that.

 

Lets say it's a rain, snow, and sleet mix.  Well the Euro maps at WxBell at least (maybe all of them..) will still add the sleet and snow to the snowfall totals even though rain is with it.  If that makes sense.

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Euro is showing the SC snow storm now in NC around the same time frame after losing it for 2 days.

The weatherbell maps along with others take into account any frozen precip as snow. It's just how it is. Ryan Maue has been asked about it.. and not sure what his final conclusion was... make sure to use the 0.125KM Euro, not the fast one that updates. Either way, cut all those totals for actual snow in half.

I checked the thicknesses and the 540 is definiely coming to the border of SC for NC when a small batch of precip is coming through, but 10 inches is way over done for some. The "snow" you see is mainly a mix for KCAE if even that.

Lets say it's a rain, snow, and sleet mix. Well the Euro maps at WxBell at least (maybe all of them..) will still add the sleet and snow to the snowfall totals even though rain is with it. If that makes sense.

I can't get the euro, can you tell me how far into the upstate it's showing snow?

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I can't get the euro, can you tell me how far into the upstate it's showing snow?

 

 

It's showing too much snow honestly.  If you want to go by the flawed (it seems) totals, anywhere from 2-5 inches in spots of the Upstate.  If you consider the upstate being the top of SC that are under the Charlotte area and across, they are the winners.  GSP even shows less.

 

But it doesn't matter until we figure out if these maps are flawed or if it's just all the Euro model images from any source.

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Okay update guys.  I just took a look at EuroWx's maps..  the max shown for anyone in the SE on the pictures is 4-5 inches in a small area above CLT.

 

Around 1 inch close to GSP, 2 Inches in upper SC into some of NC, and that area around charlotte to the North.. 3 inches except for that little bullseye.

 

I'll contact Ryan and see what could possibly be done about these. <3

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