Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[metalicwx366]

That will probably be the result if we get a +EPO/AO combo.

[Cold Rain]

^ Seen that several times so far this year. Maybe this time it'll be right.

[Jaguars]

Not always the most accurate, but in a nutshell, YIKES

 

wk3.wk4_20131206.NAsfcT.gif

Good lord. Where's the cold air in the Northern Hemisphere?

[MichaelJ]

The CFSV2 is garbage and, even though I think it will be a mild winter, it has no clue and changes daily

[pcbjr]

The CFSV2 is garbage and, even though I think it will be a mild winter, it has no clue and changes daily

 

That was 1/2 of my point; the other half was

[WeatherNC]

Euro looks mildly interesting days 8-9, suppressed sw with a solid hp moving east out of the Lakes.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Euro looks mildly interesting days 8-9, suppressed sw with a solid hp moving east out of the Lakes.

 

Yeah, I saw that, It is a bit interesting.

[Carvers Gap]

While the rest of the board is dizzy from screaming about warm temps...the Euro quietly shows a potentially good set-up as CAD and WNC mentioned. It looks interesting.

[Batman]

Some of you boys need to take some valium to treat you winter weather anxiety. You live in the SE. It is December 7. With the exception of the last 4-5 days, the weather has been rather cool relative to averages. The models that most folks here hang their emotions on change daily. They don't look great right now, but count the times over the last 20 years that the models have consistently looked good. We live in the south. I hope some of you get more Christmas presents than anyone else in your house or there may be temper tantrums being thrown. Maybe a few of you should go on Dr. Phil and talk it out.

Most of the SE has cooled down from the warmth of the week. We are looking to get good rains the next 2-3 days. There is another storm looking to come this way next weekend with relatively cool/cold weather in between. If you are looking for much more than that in early December, you should probably move north.

[Met1985]

While the rest of the board is dizzy from screaming about warm temps...the Euro quietly shows a potentially good set-up as CAD and WNC mentioned. It looks interesting.

Ya it does look interesting and I noticed it has really backed of the SE ridge in the mid range. If people can just be patient I think we will get ours.

[franklin NCwx]

Much improved look on the euro ensembles as we head thru mid month and up till the 22nd. There is also a strong signal for the storm next weekend to be a southern slider. But will we have enough cold air around?

[Carvers Gap]

But wait, we don't have the SE ridge to complain about!?  What are we going to do?  Let the complaints about storm suppression commence. 

[WeatherNC]

But wait, we don't have the SE ridge to complain about!?  What are we going to do?  Let the complaints about storm suppression commence. 

 

The northern stream would have to get involved in order for this to trend towards something other than another marginal damning event.  With an absence of +PNA, seems unlikely.  18z GFS shows a polar parcel around day 7 in the northern plains, but there is no ridging in the inter mountain west to drive it down and hook up.  Anyone who has been around for awhile knows suppressed is good beyond day 7 in the SE, much easier from a guidance perspective to shift the track NW as opposed to taking a TN Valley runner and shifting to the coast.  The complaining needs to stop, I understand many are frustrated by the lack of winter wx in the SE past couple years, and emotions can run high.  It is December 7th, Winter 2013-2014 is just starting to unfold, while ndices are unfavorable at this time, and climo argues it could be another SE winter dumpster fire going forward, please keep your bearing.  If you want to see SN, we are likely going chasing again this year, maybe WV/VA, all it takes is 1.

[Carvers Gap]

The northern stream would have to get involved in order for this to trend towards something other than another marginal damning event.  With an absence of +PNA, seems unlikely.  18z GFS shows a polar parcel around day 7 in the northern plains, but there is no ridging in the inter mountain west to drive it down and hook up.  Anyone who has been around for awhile knows suppressed is good beyond day 7 in the SE, much easier from a guidance perspective to shift the track NW as opposed to taking a TN Valley runner and shifting to the coast.  The complaining needs to stop, I understand many are frustrated by the lack of winter wx in the SE past couple years, and emotions can run high.  It is December 7th, Winter 2013-2014 is just starting to unfold, while ndices are unfavorable at this time, and climo argues it could be another SE winter dumpster fire going forward, please keep your bearing.  If you want to see SN, we are likely going chasing again this year, maybe WV/VA, all it takes is 1.

 

Yes, I was being extremely sarcastic by the way w/ the post that you quoted.  The complaining about the lack of winter in early December has been awful.  And yes, I think a suppressed system is what we need generally.  I was merely pointing out that many have complained about the ridge and now will complain about suppression.  In other words, they are never happy.  It was not meant to be a serious weather comment, more like a backhanded jab at those complaining.  Start grabbing some facemasks WxNC.   

 

edit:  I am assuming you are directing the highlighted portion to the board.  My only complaint is about the complaining.  It needs to stop and is ruining this board.  Also, I am about one hour from 6,100'...Carvers Gap actually.  So, I am good all years on seeing snow.  May have to try a chase at some point!

[BullCityWx]

So much for that fantasy storm.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

So much for that fantasy storm.

 

GFS has the storm at 192h. We only said that it looks interesting. We did not say that it was a fantasy snowstorm.

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe we can get a repeat of 2010 where we had some interesting things in December but it waited to snow on Christmas.

[superjames1992]

Maybe we can get a repeat of 2010 where we had some interesting things in December but it waited to snow on Christmas.

 

It snowed three times that December, actually (and all were accumulating for much of the state).  We did wait until Christmas for the major event, though.  That was a pretty phenomenal December.  Too bad the rest of the winter sucked here (though the deeper south got that awesome January 2011 storm that wilted, dried up, and turned into a nasty ZR/ZR drizzle event once it got to us).

 

 

 

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

So much for that fantasy storm.

 

GSP...This morning's discussion. They notice the possibility as well

 

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CWFA SAT NIGHT AND TRIES TO SPIN UP A

SERIES OF LOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY

SUN...WHILE THE OLDER 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE

FAR SE AND MOVES IT NE AND OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE SAT. BOTH

SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA ON SAT

WITH MIXED FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE.

[GaWx]

Be wary of the 1043 mb being modeled for the highest pressure for the NE sfc high at hour 180 on the 0Z Euro. The Euro has a tendency to make these too strong when looking about a week out, thus making it too cold in the SE us when this occurs. Look at the current NE high, which was modeled ~8 mb too high (1036 mb vs. 1044 mb). Of course, the whole setup on this run will likely change markedly between now and then, regardless.

Edit: Also, can we yet verify how poorly the Canadian did with those runs that had zr as far south as it had it? Didn't some of their runs from not too long ago have zr into n ga? I'm just going on memory right now. I do know that the GGEM has a history of giving n ga major wintry precip. much more often than what has verified.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro made a shift towards a colder solution.

Ensembles continue to much improved over a few days ago. The mean keeps a trough in the east.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

   NWS has put in a mention of snow for us. Something to watch.

 

Friday Night   A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Met1985]

   NWS has put in a mention of snow for us. Something to watch.

 

Friday Night   A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Ya still a ways out but something to watch for sure. Looks pretty active the next few weeks. I really like were the Euro is going. Keeps the SE ridge beaten down and looks pretty seasonable to below average.

[Tacoma]

   NWS has put in a mention of snow for us. Something to watch.

 

Friday Night   A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Yep but doesn't look good when the high is to be 45.  That's a little suspect.  Plus the mention of rain and snow.  I'd get a little more excited if it read a chance of snow with a high of 33 or so but I guess they don't want to go out on a limb.  This most recent storm is a dud so maybe next weekend will be better.   

[FallsLake]

Indices are not as bad today:

AO - continues to show a very positive look(bad) **maybe with a tendency towards neutral in the LR 

PNA - Looks to head towards neutral and average somewhere in that range in the LR

NAO - Looks to drop to neutral or slightly negative. Then in the LR there are a little more runs in the negative camp but a few that are very positive.

 

Overall the LR looks neutral with everything at this point. **even the AO right at the end

[FallsLake]

12z NAM at 84 hours:

[Bsudweather]

12z NAM at 84 hours:

That looks like could be a gulf system or am I seeing it wrong?

[burgertime]

Be wary of the 1043 mb being modeled for the highest pressure for the NE sfc high at hour 180 on the 0Z Euro. The Euro has a tendency to make these too strong when looking about a week out, thus making it too cold in the SE us when this occurs. Look at the current NE high, which was modeled ~8 mb too high (1036 mb vs. 1044 mb). Of course, the whole setup on this run will likely change markedly between now and then, regardless.

Edit: Also, can we yet verify how poorly the Canadian did with those runs that had zr as far south as it had it? Didn't some of their runs from not too long ago have zr into n ga? I'm just going on memory right now. I do know that the GGEM has a history of giving n ga major wintry precip. much more often than what has verified.

 

 

The Canadian has not done well the past few winters. When it gives us hope it's easy to want to believe in it but it just doesn't seem to do too well with winter weather events. I think it did well with the Christmas storm a few years back but since then it's probably very hard to find a storm it's nailed in the LR. I think we end up average for December. I still feel like this winter will be better than the last two...heck we have had two close calls now and it's not even Jan. It's December 8th and it's currently 35 degrees IMBY. Nuff said. 

[burgertime]

That looks like could be a gulf system or am I seeing it wrong?

 

Fun to look at but it's 84 hours on the NAM. GFS already looking like an Ohio runner or a lakes cutter with that system. It doesn't dig the shortwave out in the west nearly enough and it ends up tracking across the panhandle of Texas. 

[Bsudweather]

Fun to look at but it's 84 hours on the NAM. GFS already looking like an Ohio runner or a lakes cutter with that system. It doesn't dig the shortwave out in the west nearly enough and it ends up tracking across the panhandle of Texas.

Yea but we know that will probably change 100 times between now and thurs! Lol. But hopefully it will catch on to something in a few runs! Also it looks like the NAM may be doing a little better with the ice event today than the GFS. But I could be wrong on that but that's the way it looks.