Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

The big SOI drop will help keep the southern branch very active.

will the Scandinavian ridge ever retrograde into the nao region?

[dwagner88]

The GFS is looking extremely wet towards next weekend. With 3+ inches on tap for this weekend, we could be dealing with some flooding should this run verify.

[NCSNOW]

This is why I haven't had any concern for this winter at this point.  A LOT of things are different this year and although we haven't had any blocking on the Atlantic side so far, things seem to be pretty much where they ought to be for this time of year.

I will most likely be placed in a freezing rain advisory, possible  winter storm warning (min.25 frzng rn criteria) come Sunday 12/8/13.  If so this will be the second winter weather advisory this season. Also will be the 3rd frozen precip event this season.  Even though it's 75 degrees outside, I have to say if you would have offered anyone east of the apps this deal on November 1st we all would have taken it. The biggest encouraging thing to me is the likelihood for the STJ to get rolling the next 90 days. That x's a progressive northern branch sending big HP's consistently will eventually deliver the goods even with a crappy Atlantic/ blocking. 

[Tacoma]

There is a big storm showing up on the models in 13-16 timeframe but looks like a big rain storm for the SE.

Whats new.    Rain for the southeast which doesn't surprise me but back in the day we had a lot more storms out of the gulf which kept NC Mtns. and Upstate SC on the nw fringe of the storm and we would have great snowstorms and this was the 60's and 70's.  What has happened to all the gulf storms going across s. ga. to the carolina coast?  

[Tacoma]

The big SOI drop will help keep the southern branch very active.

This is great if we can get the cold temps to mix with the southern branch.  Sure seem to be wasting a lot of moisture.  WHERE'S THE COLD TEMPS WHEN YOU NEED THEM?

[J.C.]

New here.  I think what is so depressing about this warm weather isn't the fact that it is so warm, it is the fact that 90% of the entire country is in the deep freeze, and it isn't going to get here.  My dad sent me photos of snow in Astoria, Oregon today, which is very rare.  It appears they had about a foot of snow in Fayetteville, Arkansas and a second storm looks to dump on the same areas next week.  We haven't seen this type of cold widespread in a few years, and it is not coming to the southeast.  I can't remember the last time we had a ridge out in the Atlantic block the type of air mass it is currently blocking, and will continue to do so.  This has basically been our weather pattern for the past 6-8 weeks.  When the rain stopped back in early September is when the ridge took over.  I know people have talked about the cold spells we had in November, but what they are forgetting is how short lived they were.  Between those cold spells it was above average.  We had a high of 85 last month here in Columbia.  I have lived around the Atlanta area most of my life, and I can't remember a southeastern ridge that has been as strong as this one seems to be.  I don't know what that means for January and February, but what I do know is that if it can last from September to December, why not all the way through March?

[Wow]

The big SOI drop will help keep the southern branch very active.

Yeah noticed that too. Theast drop back in late Oct predicted the active STJ of November. Patiently waiting for sustained arctic blocking.

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah noticed that too. Theast drop back in late Oct predicted the active STJ of November. Patiently waiting for sustained arctic blocking.

We all are, it shows up on the ensembles then disappears. Looks like the nino regions have warmed even more too. Looks like a cutter , cold, cutter pattern.

[dsaur]

Need an impulse to come up that weakness on the 12th, into that high, instead of waiting 3 days for a runner, and maybe cad. I'm trying to put the whammy on that, and get it moving...but I need the models to help, because everyone knows if both the majors go to that solution, more energy will go into that thought, and help it happen   Meanwhile, I'm killing wasps in the house thanks to this heat.

[dsaur]

Well, it's gone from a runner to a crosser, and a week to sort it out better

[Shawn]

Without melting down totally.. with the look of everything...

 

If one thing works in our favor, another doesn't.  I don't like the models or the weather very much right now.  I took a glance at the weather channel's "current temp" map earlier.. and saw 38 or below EVERyWHERE... except for us.. that in itself is extremely disappointing.

 

The GGEM finally let go of the ICE down to C. NC on the next event.  Let go of the mix in NC/SC around the 13th to an extent....  the Euro let go...

 

I HATE the SE ridge.

 

Minor meltdown.. sorry. <3

 

 

 

delta (chris); where are you?  I know you feel the same I hope?

[downeastnc]

Its only December, ( hell early Dec) you guys worried about it not snowing yet etc are spoiled by the last 10-15 yrs I guess, I suspect most of you that are worried were little or not alive in the 90's lol.   I can remember going 3-4 years without accumulating snow in the early-mid 90's I think. Personally I think I will see my yearly average this year ( not hard to do its only 4-6") and so will most of the rest of you.

 

The pattern looks pretty rough right now but it can snow in most of the SE until mid or late March so we still have a solid 3 months of winter and a lot can change. I cant wait for the first GOM low that looks legit at 5-7 days to bust this board is gonna go bonkers....

[Shawn]

Its only December, ( hell early Dec) you guys worried about it not snowing yet etc are spoiled by the last 10-15 yrs I guess, I suspect most of you that are worried were little or not alive in the 90's lol.   I can remember going 3-4 years without accumulating snow in the early-mid 90's I think. Personally I think I will see my yearly average this year ( not hard to do its only 4-6") and so will most of the rest of you.

 

The pattern looks pretty rough right now but it can snow in most of the SE until mid or late March so we still have a solid 3 months of winter and a lot can change. I cant wait for the first GOM low that looks legit at 5-7 days to bust this board is gonna go bonkers....

 

I think I'm going back into hiding.  I'll take a glance at the models.. and until it's a credible threat (2-4 days out) .. rarely post just like Summer time.  Its sad to see everyone 40 degrees cooler than us.   You're supposed to get snow up there... living in SC is a true heartache for Winter though.  We are always on the fringe... especially around the Midlands.. and thats the most annoying part.  I've thought about moving to Boone.. but even that wouldn't be enough for me.  I have this thing where if I moved up to say "Alaska".. then I'd get tired of it.. and that's the thing.... WInter weather in the SE (especially bigger storms) are rare... maybe that is what creates the excitement for it.

 

EDIT:  This seems banter talk from me, feel free to drop it. <3

[Jaguars]

This stretch of warmth is truly depressing. Especially

when you consider it's 38 in Brownsville, TX this morning. Line

of demarcation due to ridge is amazing. But yet it holds

it's ground. Any hope of a pattern change by Christmas?

[metalicwx366]

This stretch of warmth is truly depressing. Especially

when you consider it's 38 in Brownsville, TX this morning. Line

of demarcation due to ridge is amazing. But yet it holds

it's ground. Any hope of a pattern change by Christmas?

Next week looks cool and dry.

[Cold Rain]

You guys sound like you need a hug. How did the LR look? Obviously no modeled 8+ day storms to set everyone up for heartbreak later, but does it look seasonal, cold, or torchy? Because a few days ago, the Euro showed mild weather and winter was canceled.

[BullCityWx]

If you look at stats for KCLT, if we end up with a monthly average of 50 for December(which i would put the odds of that at 65% or better), the entire winter is pretty much borked.

[HKY18]

Honestly I see no reason to be worried or upset. Even if the models aren't showing any specific long range threats. There's some decent analogs showing up on the super ensembles, and just based on what I've seen in the pattern this fall I'm confident that most will at least get to average snowfall this year. We may lose the deeply -EPO at points and torch during those periods but I don't see that being anything more than a transient warm up. We've had very strong HP's moving into favorable locations since mid-november and the southern stream has been fairly active. Just have to get timing to match and maybe get something to slow the flow down on the Atlantic side for a few days to get a good storm. Patience guys it's coming.

[HKY18]

If you look at stats for KCLT, if we end up with a monthly average of 50 for December(which i would put the odds of that at 65% or better), the entire winter is pretty much borked.

In terms of avg temp or snowfall? Or both?

[BullCityWx]

In terms of avg temp or snowfall? Or both?

Both. One winter recovered temp wise (84-85) and one recovered snowfall wise(71-72). Otherwise, there were some god awful winters in the bunch. There were several where every month average 48 or above.

[franklin NCwx]

You guys sound like you need a hug. How did the LR look? Obviously no modeled 8+ day storms to set everyone up for heartbreak later, but does it look seasonal, cold, or torchy? Because a few days ago, the Euro showed mild weather and winter was canceled.

Ensembles actually looked a little better overnight, nothing great but no very warm look either. Really it looks seasonal with no blocking. Probably a pattern where we warm with sw flow from a cutter with cold behind.

[Cold Rain]

Ensembles actually looked a little better overnight, nothing great but no very warm look either. Really it looks seasonal with no blocking. Probably a pattern where we warm with sw flow from a cutter with cold behind.

Good deal, thanks man. Hopefully some blocking will show up at some point this winter.

[rduwx]

Imo analogs are nice and I'm sure it can give good insight as to what our winters will be like but in the SE it only takes one good storm to turn a bad winter into a good winter.  I'm probably in the minority when I say I don't like wall to wall cold during winter months.  There are things I like to do outside and enjoy some of the warm spells we get.  I also enjoy winter storms and love tracking them.  I believe over the past few winters we've been unlucky at times and the timing just hasn't been right.  Hopefully this year one or two will work out.  We're due for a 10" storm here in the RDU area!

[FallsLake]

12z GFS at hour 186:

[metalicwx366]

12z GFS at hour 186:

That would be some very beneficial rain down here. We certainly need it. Hasn't rained in 11 days.

[dsaur]

Lord knows I've pinned my hopes on less in the desperate times, but this looks promising to me.  The runner has to gone to a Fla crossing low in three runs, and the cold air is still on the maps.  Plenty of time for it to work into something, though climo would disagree on it's promise   I wanted the maps to show me a low coming up the weakness, and it's coming around...and, actually, 3 runs is pretty fast a turn around.

[Southern Track]

Lord knows I've pinned my hopes on less in the desperate times, but this looks promising to me. The runner has to gone to a Fla crossing low in three runs, and the cold air is still on the maps. Plenty of time for it to work into something, though climo would disagree on it's promise I wanted the maps to show me a low coming up the weakness, and it's coming around...and, actually, 3 runs is pretty fast a turn around.

Will have to watch the next couple of days to see if it can trend colder. With no blocking the cold just heads NE before the Gulf pumps up the moisture.

[dsaur]

Right on that, for sure, but there's been model hinting from time to time on blocking, and stranger things have happened in a few days   And, if not, there's still the classic cad that was showing in the occasional run too.  Most of all it doesn't look like heatmageddon, and winter's end, lol.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

If you look at stats for KCLT, if we end up with a monthly average of 50 for December(which i would put the odds of that at 65% or better), the entire winter is pretty much borked.

 

I'll take the under....

[pcbjr]

Not always the most accurate, but in a nutshell, YIKES