Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[jburns]

Ha ha. I don't understand why we go through this every year with the "winter is over before it started crowd" so far this winter has started off fast including most of November. Even December, at least the first half is not great for even the mtns climo wise compared to jan, feb and March. Its early and its been below normal for the most part with some very early season snow.

In fairness, they pretty much nailed it the past two years.

[tnweathernut]

Ha ha. I don't understand why we go through this every year with the "winter is over before it started crowd" so far this winter has started off fast including most of November. Even December, at least the first half is not great for even the mtns climo wise compared to jan, feb and March. Its early and its been below normal for the most part with some very early season snow.In fairness, they pretty much nailed it the past two years.

So true.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bevo]

In fairness, they pretty much nailed it the past two years.

 

They did, however they also had the leverage of cold temps constantly being pushed back.  That leverage has been taken away for several months now and replaced with an opposite phenomenon.  I'm not saying it will last, but the prosecution can't rest it's case yet.

[Shawn]

my my @ the long range storm the 00z gfs has (no snow se deal) though.

 

i THINK.... big word THINK the GGEM/EURO may be handling things better than the GFS.. especially longer range.  Time will tell though.

[GaWx]

 No surprise at all: The 0Z Euro pretty much takes away the 12/12-13 winter storm because it is colder and drier. Let's see how the rest of the run goes and see if it is a delayed but not denied storm.. Pur the guns away, please.

[dsaur]

Not bad then.  It'll probably end up verifying wetter, and borderline   I kind of like where that high is placed on Goofy.  That's a case of taking my chances on the rain this time, lol.  It's down there, just not organized yet...need to let that one simmer a while.  You kind of don't mind the side swipe big highs as long as the cads keep rolling in when they miss the south.  Cads are so much better than the last few years, even if they don't produce anything but almost.  Of course, by the end of the winter there will be some mighty blue walnuts, lol, if they continue to tease.  T

[Shawn]

GGEM & EURO & GFS agree.  No winter storm in the SE (minus the ice events on the 9th-12th or something).

Yeah, I'm moving.  This model watching etc is for the birds.  I hear I will always get snow in Alaska.

[Cold Rain]

How does the LR look in the models? Are we still canceling winter?

[metalicwx366]

How does the LR look in the models? Are we still canceling winter?

Terrible. Yes. Next week looks average to slightly below average and dry. Then in the longer range it warms up again ahead of the next storm system. This is what I see on the latest run of the GFS. Indices argue against any blocking or sustained cold in the long range.

[Cold Rain]

Terrible. Yes. Next week looks average to slightly below average and dry. Then in the longer range it warms up again ahead of the next storm system. This is what I see on the latest run of the GFS. Indices argue against any blocking or sustained cold in the long range.

Thanks man.

[Stovepipe]

In fairness, they pretty much nailed it the past two years.

 

Trying to predict the winter outcome using "feelings" and "hunches" is ridiculous even if they turn out to be true.  Happens every year, some people want snow so badly that they'll make "winter cancel" posts just so others will jump in and fervently argue the glass half full side and that gives them hope.  They enjoy being talked down off the cliff so to speak.  It's pretty lame because it derails what would otherwise be a good objective discussion.

[Brick Tamland]

People can't even agree on if anything will happen a week away, let alone the next three months.

[jburns]

Trying to predict the winter outcome using "feelings" and "hunches" is ridiculous even if they turn out to be true.  Happens every year, some people want snow so badly that they'll make "winter cancel" posts just so others will jump in and fervently argue the glass half full side and that gives them hope.  They enjoy being talked down off the cliff so to speak.  It's pretty lame because it derails what would otherwise be a good objective discussion.

 

I can agree with the bolded, but that's not what happened the past two years, except for the usual suspects. You gloss over the fact that there was ample evidence fairly early in the winters of the past two years that strongly argued for warmer than average. Whenever it was mentioned in a discussion, and it was,  the first reaction was, "cliff diver".  Both sides are equally responsible for derailing discussions at different times.

[Stovepipe]

I can agree with the bolded, but that's not what happened the past two years, except for the usual suspects. You gloss over the fact that there was ample evidence fairly early in the winters of the past two years that strongly argued for warmer than average. Whenever it was mentioned in a discussion, and it was,  the first reaction was, "cliff diver".  Both sides are equally responsible for derailing discussions at different times.

 

I'm calling BS on the bolded.  Most long range forecasters last season, including Bastardi and Robert, weren't calling for warmer than average.  Don Sutherland, who had the most success with the warm calls, only went month to month.  The Euro monthlies and other long range models were aweful.  There simply was not ample evidence of a terrible winter early on, but feel free to revise history as you see fit.

[jburns]

I'm calling BS on the bolded.  Most long range forecasters last season, including Bastardi and Robert, weren't calling for warmer than average.  Don Sutherland, who had the most success with the warm calls, only went month to month.  The Euro monthlies and other long range models were aweful.  There simply was not ample evidence of a terrible winter early on, but feel free to revise history as you see fit.

 

This needs to go to banter if you want to pursue it. 

[metalicwx366]

I'm calling BS on the bolded. Most long range forecasters last season, including Bastardi and Robert, weren't calling for warmer than average. Don Sutherland, who had the most success with the warm calls, only went month to month. The Euro monthlies and other long range models were aweful. There simply was not ample evidence of a terrible winter early on, but feel free to revise history as you see fit.

Not picking on Robert or JB, but it seems they always are calling for a cold and snowy winter.

Then every winter on here, several people say this and that look better than the past winter or whatever, yet we get the same results.

[Stovepipe]

Not picking on Robert or JB, but it seems they always are calling for a cold and snowy winter.

Then every winter on here, several people say this and that look better than the past winter or whatever, yet we get the same results.

 

Science > Feelings, regardless of outcome.

[calculus1]

Not picking on Robert or JB, but it seems they always are calling for a cold and snowy winter.

Then every winter on here, several people say this and that look better than the past winter or whatever, yet we get the same results.

 

You should always get the same results each winter in Waycross, man.  You know that! 

 

I would object strenuously to classifying Robert in the same vein as JB.  Robert is quite level-headed in his approach, in my opinion, compared to the hype machine that is JB.  And, I haven't witnessed Robert calling for a massive cold and snowy winter in the SE, either.  He does have good reasoning and basis for why he thinks this winter will be quite different from the past two, but the ways in which it ends up being different could still vary quite greatly.

[metalicwx366]

Science > Feelings, regardless of outcome.

Exactly. I agree here. I said this earlier in the winter outlook thread when people were discussing size of spider webs and wooly worms and other folklores that don't work.

[POWERSTROKE]

Not picking on Robert or JB, but it seems they always are calling for a cold and snowy winter.

Then every winter on here, several people say this and that look better than the past winter or whatever, yet we get the same results.

JB has not said a snowy winter for us.  He said west of us would be the best spots and so did Robert.  So far I would say not bad forecast.  JB has never said this  would be a significant storm for us.  He said Tenn, Ken, Wva, Va and down to Dallas, TX.  You don't have to like either one of them but if you going to discuss ther forecast make sure you tell it right.  JB is a hypster but several on this board pay for his site and he has been good so far.  Even mentioning a brief warm up just like models finally come around too.  Then cold coming back we shall see if he is right or not

[griteater]

How does the LR look in the models? Are we still canceling winter?

 

I saw yesterday where Wes (usedtobe) mentioned that the most recent superensemble looked the exact opposite of the very wintry periods of the 2010 Nino winter.

 

Here's the comparison.  Early Feb 2010 on the left vs. Mid Dec 2013 on the right.  For 2010, you have the -AO/-NAO/+PNA signature with above normal heights across Canada to Greenland, along with the undercutting and active southern stream.  Forecast for mid-Dec 2013 has +AO/+NAO/-PNA signature with below normal heights across Canada to Greenland, and above normal heights across the southern tier.  There's plenty of cold air to our north, and can be tapped at times, but no large scale mechanism in place to press the heights to the south in order to sustain it (cold air is bottled up in +AO fashion).  This is where we are for the upcoming period.  Not an indictment on the remaining winter to come.

 

[packbacker]

 

I saw yesterday where Wes (usedtobe) mentioned that the most recent superensemble looked the exact opposite of the very wintry periods of the 2010 Nino winter.

 

Here's the comparison.  Early Feb 2010 on the left vs. Mid Dec 2013 on the right.  For 2010, you have the -AO/-NAO/+PNA signature with above normal heights across Canada to Greenland, along with the undercutting and active southern stream.  Forecast for mid-Dec 2013 has +AO/+NAO/-PNA signature with below normal heights across Canada to Greenland, and above normal heights across the southern tier.  There's plenty of cold air to our north, and can be tapped at times, but no large scale mechanism in place to press the heights to the south in order to sustain it (cold air is bottled up in +AO fashion).  This is where we are for the upcoming period.  Not an indictment on the remaining winter to come.

 

 

 

 

That sure is ugly for wanting snow.  The good news is that every telecon is not what we want, at the same time, if/when it flips, hopefully they all flip.

[tnweathernut]

I don't really know the whole Cosgrove back story on here, but I do follow him on Facebook and Twitter.  It will be interesting to see if anything comes out of late next week/weekend. 

Larry Cosgrove commented on this.

 

 

 

Larry Cosgrove

Be careful out there today. Widespread ice threats exist from N TX into the interior Northeast (and yes, the entire length of the Ohio Valley) into Saturday morning. A "follow-up" system is a snow>ice>rain scenario for the Interstate 95 cities above Petersburg VA Sunday and Monday, but may bring moderate sleet/snow risks to the Corn Belt and Great Lakes.

And yes....another truly major storm looms for December 13 - 16. That is the system we REALLY need to focus on, for many reasons.

[tnweathernut]

He is thinking a Texas, Georgia, NC, Maine type track.

[DixieBlizzard]

I don't really know the whole Cosgrove back story on here, but I do follow him on Facebook and Twitter.  It will be interesting to see if anything comes out of late next week/weekend. 

Larry Cosgrove commented on this.

 

 

 

Larry Cosgrove

Be careful out there today. Widespread ice threats exist from N TX into the interior Northeast (and yes, the entire length of the Ohio Valley) into Saturday morning. A "follow-up" system is a snow>ice>rain scenario for the Interstate 95 cities above Petersburg VA Sunday and Monday, but may bring moderate sleet/snow risks to the Corn Belt and Great Lakes.

And yes....another truly major storm looms for December 13 - 16. That is the system we REALLY need to focus on, for many reasons.

 

 

Let's just say when it comes to CAD, he got owned in the past by several hobbyist that post here. It was quite entertaining.

[DaculaWeather]

Let's just say when it comes to CAD, he got owned in the past by several hobbyist that post here. It was quite entertaining.

But this would NOT be a CAD storm... this is something better!

[Bsudweather]

But this would NOT be a CAD storm... this is something better!

Are models still hinting at this possible storm next week? I thought they had lost it.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Big SOI drop coming. Continued enhancement of the southern jet going forward?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I saw on Joe Bastardi twitter about the SOI drop coming.  What is the SOI ? 

[tnweathernut]

Let's just say when it comes to CAD, he got owned in the past by several hobbyist that post here. It was quite entertaining.

 

I'd love to read through that thread.  There are a LOT of good hobbyists on our board.  Knowing your small area is a huge bonus.  I would imagine it's pretty easy to get "schooled" if you don't know the specific microclimates where you are trying to forecast.  That said, I hope his large scale view is accurate.

[tnweathernut]

I saw on Joe Bastardi twitter about the SOI drop coming.  What is the SOI ? 

In a nutshell - the southern oscillation index will usually indicate upcoming el-nino like conditions when there is a drop into negative territory.    Positive = la nina conditions.  It's a LOT more involved than that I am sure, but that's the gist.