Shawn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol, 12z Euro snowfall through hr 192: Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It can and has happened before !! Something seems off with the snow amounts. I do not mean there won't be wintry precip.. but snow does not make exact sense to me this far south.. where that heavy axis is. just watching over 850's we drop to -3 or so around kcae.. then back up to 3-4 pretty quick. Really thinking the snow maps are off for sure. Now ice or something? for sure. I think the GGEM is depicting the system correctly for this area as being mainly a mixed bag/ice. NC would be snow if the precip did get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol.. well it has been consistent with this. Not much on the gfs for this storm. It will either be squashed or a cutter. It's a contentious setup. Without a good block, we need the northern stream to press the heights to the south in order to have the cold air, but that brings the squash scenario into play and no southern stream system of consequence. Have the northern stream relax a bit to get the storm, and you lose the cold air. It brings the perfect timing factor into play even more so than normal. The one thing we have going right now is the big Alaska ridge (-EPO) that has deposited a lot of cold air into S Canada and across the northern tier, and is available to be tapped if the timing is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The trend for later next week does look good. Of course, that is the trend right now. Plenty of time for it to trend backt he other way, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, fyi from WSI: "We are anticipating an end to the anamolous cold pattern in the US in the later half of December and early January with clear evidence of a pattern shift to milder for the eastern 2/3rds of the US with average to above average confidence" This is an example of bollocks. What, are they practicing magic? There is no way to know that with even average to below average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro does give a sig. to major winter storm to parts of the SE US 12/12-13 thanks to a very weak Miller A combined with significant CAD. The very weak low is just ESE of Brownsville early on 12/12 and it moves across central FL on 12/13. This is quite far south and is the kind of track that can result in unusually far south significant SE wintry precip..when the cold air to the north is ample. The qpf is generous (1-1.5" from SW GA to SE NC), which just goes to show that a lot of precip. can be associated with very weak miller A's in the SE US. Many in history were that way. Also, that makes it easier for the storm track to be far south and less warm advection. This Miller A generates sig. to major snow from N GA across C & N SC to S & C NC. Also, due to strong wedging, there appears to be quite a bit of sleet in C and N GA, much of SC,and far southern NC. To the south of this, there appears to be sig. ZR over C and even northern portions of S GA as well as S and C SC. Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias at 2 meters when there is sig. evap. cooling. Yet, this run shows highs of only upper 30's to the point where GA, FL, and AL meet. Again, that's with a warm bias implying the possibility of highs staying not much above freezing quite far south! This will change a zillion times. So, it is still mainly just a fun thing to see more than anything.The Euro has a 1042ish high over PA on 12/12 at 12Z. However, the Euro tends to overdo high pressure in the NE US when looking several days out. Be wary of this. Another thing is that I'm really questioning the Euro's clown maps again. They keep generating sig. snowfall when 850's are above 0C. I'm wondering if there's a problem with the algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro does give a sig. to major winter storm to parts of the SE US 12/12-13 thanks to a very weak Miller A combined with significant CAD. The very weak low is just ESE of Brownsville early on 12/12 and it moves across central FL on 12/13. This is quite far south and is the kind of track that can result in unusually far south significant SE wintry precip..when the cold air to the north is ample. The qpf is generous (1-1.5" from SW GA to SE NC), which just goes to show that a lot of precip. can be associated with very weak miller A's in the SE US. Many in history were that way. Also, that makes it easier for the storm track to be far south and less warm advection. This Miller A generates sig. to major snow from N GA across C & N SC to S & C NC. Also, due to strong wedging, there appears to be quite a bit of sleet in C and N GA, much of SC,and far southern NC. To the south of this, there appears to be sig. ZR over C and even northern portions of S GA as well as S and C SC. Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias at 2 meters when there is sig. evap. cooling. Yet, this run shows highs of only upper 30's to the point where GA, FL, and AL meet. Again, that's with a warm bias implying the possibility of highs staying not much above freezing quite far south! This will change a zillion times. So, it is still mainly just a fun thing to see more than anything.The Euro has a 1042ish high over PA on 12/12 at 12Z. However, the Euro tends to overdo high pressure in the NE US when looking several days out. Be wary of this. Another thing is that I'm really questioning the Euro's clown maps again. They keep generating sig. snowfall when 850's are above 0C. I'm wondering if there's a problem with the algorithm. Def. agree looking at SV maps it would be a sleet monster for CAE and even as far north as CLT....looked like at best you would get a few hours of snow before thickness turns it into sleet/ZR. Of course focusing on that is kind of pointless right now but I've been a bit surprised by the snow maps coming out recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I was gonna say, something is wrong with either the clown snow maps are 850's...Because if those 850s are right, nobody gets snow (outside mtns) and its a sleet and ZR fest...If that CAD is to be real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I was gonna say, something is wrong with either the clown snow maps are 850's...Because if those 850s are right, nobody gets snow (outside mtns) and its a sleet and ZR fest...If that CAD is to be real For a brief period I saw -3 850 around KCAE and further north even colder.. just a bit odd.. the snow fall maps are incorrect for sure. There is no way 6-8 inches fall in CAE as all snow. More like a burst of snow, to sleet, to probably ZR. The 12Z GGEM is depicting the precip types correctly IMO.. showing tad of snow, to mix, to sleet, to zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think for now that I'll stick to Robert Gamble and trust his many years of excellent forecasting rather than worry about a week-long warm period. Those crazy warm-ups have long been advertised on the GFS this summer/fall and have rarely materialized. Not to mention his track record. And the second bolded part is a ginormous understatement. The indicies are terrible, brick. At best we hang around normal after the one day cold shot that isnt even that cold. They have been. Yet my heat ran more these past 3 weeks than most of the last two winters. I saw snow twice in November. Indices aren't the only parts of the equation. I have only been following wxrisk/wxsouth for about a year. I still don't see supperior accuracy from anyone in the long range. Early this week I was also in the bandwagon where wxsouth had nearly everyone in damaging ice on his map backed by long an long analysis with strong signals. All that changed in 24 hours. Things change overnight. Robert (WxSouth) has been in impressive form over the last several months. And as Calc mentioned, he is about as opposite in his progs for December as you could be from the Warm Wagoneers. This is not to say that the torch progs will be wrong. This IS to say that based on recent history as evidence of what HAS happened, along with the constant backing off of the progged warmth as we get closer, I'm not sure indices can give us a complete picture. Queencity is pretty solid and reasonable in general, and there really is no logical rebuttal to the assertions of warmth other than gleaning from what has happened already. I personally think the SE ridge will be more of a player this winter than in the last two (which in all honesty didn't have much of a showing, regardless of the hardliners thinking otherwise), but that is not an atypical feature of our winters. The one thing I AM sure of is that the indices have not been the most reliable foundation to use of late. So until I see otherwise, I don't really know what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This 12Z GEFS plume map confirms that the Euro snow maps are incorrect too: The GFS has been insistent on 4-7 members at a time showing some winter weather around here in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The trend for later next week does look good. Of course, that is the trend right now. Plenty of time for it to trend backt he other way, too. I think the models have been showing snow/ice for Arkansas and vicinity consistently every day and every run on every model for a week. IF only we could be so lucky. I told someone a little while ago that since it's a great storm on paper for us, it will change a hundred times and probably for the worse. would be a big score for the Canadian though if it actually happened since it was the first to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 From Glenn Burns on Twitter: " if you are liking this warm weather, it looks like a major warmup after the 8th right through Christmas" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 From Glenn Burns on Twitter: " if you are liking this warm weather, it looks like a major warmup after the 8th right through Christmas" Sure looks like it right now. GFS doesn't show even a hint of sustained arctic/Greenland blocking throughout its runs today. Right now the SAI index is looking really good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 ....So, are we going to push 90 degrees??? I have NEVER liked him at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sure looks like it right now. GFS doesn't show even a hint of sustained arctic/Greenland blocking throughout its runs today. Right now the SAI index is looking really good right now. It might be warm, but major warm up from low to mid 70's now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It might be warm, but major warm up from low to mid 70's now?? No way.. but a period which averages at or above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wow, the Euro suddenly looks pretty good in the LR. Actually trended to the 0z GGEM with the retrogression of the Scand block back over toward Greenland. Really need to see a good -NAO block form to have any chance of sustained cold/storminess. Sure looks like it right now. GFS doesn't show even a hint of sustained arctic/Greenland blocking throughout its runs today. Right now the SAI index is looking really good right now. The amount of indecision on these boards is comical at times. Its frustrating when at 1 pm it seems as if there may be a threat of wintry weather then at 5 its going to be a torch. Each day's model runs are mostly showing quite different depictions of the upcoming pattern, it is too early to say it is going to be a torch until Christmas, and vice versa you cant proclaim snowmaggedon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I rarely post on here. I mostly lurk so I can listen and learn from the numerous posters that understand the weather and the models much better than I do. But today, I had to speak up. While there are some very skilled mets and posters on here, there are also many folks on here that have the patience and the emotions of a teenage girl. I have lived in Tyrone GA. about 30 miles south of ATL for 21 years. In that time, I have never experienced a Thanksgiving week as cold as this year, snow covering the ground before Thanksgiving, 2 nights in the 20s in October. 3 or 4 nights in the low 20s before Thanksgiving, or dormant Bemuda by November 1. Yet, to listen to some on here you would think it was 1997-98 or 2001-02 all over again. I have heard things like "the indices are terrible and we won't get anything good until they change" or "the models show a blow torch looks like we are warm until after Christmas maybe in January things will improve". Folks, the indices were bad all fall and we were below normal in November with some very good cold shots. When are some folks going to realize that the weather will rarely verify as warm or as cold the most extreme models of the day. Just on this page alone we see Good LR blocking (Euro) and a blowtorch (GFS). I think everyone should take a step back from time to time and heed some words from JB "Enjoy the weather, It's the only weather you've got". By the way listen to anything Glen Burns says about weather with extreme caution. I have heard some real nonsense come out of his mouth in the last 21 years. If you don't believe me ask Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man, just when I was feeling good winter is cancelled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man, just when I was feeling good winter is cancelled again.. Yeah, the next big winter threat, is always only 8+ days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man, just when I was feeling good winter is cancelled again. I'm picking up your sarcasm here . Yeah, the next big winter threat, is always only 8+ days away! Except the last two which verified fairly well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 lol, 12z Euro snowfall through hr 192: Nope. This was my vision!! This right here ....only it continued on down to Mobile. And it's hard to worry about the end of winter predictions when the end of the week has been unclear since the beginning of the week..and that's only 3 1/2 days ago I'm with Bevo, and calling it mountain oysters. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm picking up your sarcasm here Except the last two which verified fairly well Ha ha. I don't understand why we go through this every year with the "winter is over before it started crowd" so far this winter has started off fast including most of November. Even December, at least the first half is not great for even the mtns climo wise compared to jan, feb and March. Its early and its been below normal for the most part with some very early season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This was my vision!! This right here ....only it continued on down to Mobile. And it's hard to worry about the end of winter predictions when the end of the week has been unclear since the beginning of the week..and that's only 3 1/2 days ago I'm with Bevo, and calling it mountain oysters. T Change Mobile to Tallahassee and I'm right there with you, brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ha ha. I don't understand why we go through this every year with the "winter is over before it started crowd" so far this winter has started off fast including most of November. Even December, at least the first half is not great for even the mtns climo wise compared to jan, feb and March. Its early and its been below normal for the most part with some very early season snow. I've been shaking my head more and more at this. It's to the point of just not even bothering and reading elsewhere. I hope it doesn't come to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Arctic front sweeps Key West, per AccuWeather: Today's State Extremes State Highs: Marco Island Airport 87°F Immokalee Regional Airport 87°F Fort Myers 85°F Orlando International 84°F Winter Haven 84°F State Lows: Key West 17°F Cecil Field 53°F Gainesville 54°F Cross City 55°F Zephyrhills 55°F Classic back door cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Def. agree looking at SV maps it would be a sleet monster for CAE and even as far north as CLT....looked like at best you would get a few hours of snow before thickness turns it into sleet/ZR. Of course focusing on that is kind of pointless right now but I've been a bit surprised by the snow maps coming out recently. It would be amazing to see 4"+ of sleet I was gonna say, something is wrong with either the clown snow maps are 850's...Because if those 850s are right, nobody gets snow (outside mtns) and its a sleet and ZR fest...If that CAD is to be real It's interesting the past few days have hinted at similar scenarios btw.......I've had more fantasy snow/sleet/zr this year than I've had the past 2+ years combined I think the models have been showing snow/ice for Arkansas and vicinity consistently every day and every run on every model for a week. IF only we could be so lucky. I told someone a little while ago that since it's a great storm on paper for us, it will change a hundred times and probably for the worse. would be a big score for the Canadian though if it actually happened since it was the first to show it. It will happen again....one day....lol In the meantime enjoy watching the model madness as our next "maybe" comes into play No way.. but a period which averages at or above normal. I believe we will hover just around normal for Dec.....I am probably wrong, but it's my story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I believe we will hover just around normal for Dec.....I am probably wrong, but it's my story In my opinion, it's probably the safest and most logical story to stick with at the moment. Everyone in the SE knows that warmth showing up in long range solutions has very rarely verified in the last 7-8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Big SOI drop coming. Continued enhancement of the southern jet going forward? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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