Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[mackerel_sky]

What's up with the later next week event? Did it turn in to a lakes cutter or go poof? It's dead in here?

[Wow]

GGEM still banking on the E Canada vortex to cut under the Scand block and pull that back into Greenland.  Yeah it's the canadian but at least it's consistent here.

 

[Brick Tamland]

And, this is the beauty of long-range forecasting.  No one has any clue for certain what will happen.  Robert (WxSouth) is about as opposite as he can be from your point of view:

 

 

I think for now that I'll stick to Robert Gamble and trust his many years of excellent forecasting rather than worry about a week-long warm period.  Those crazy warm-ups have long been advertised on the GFS this summer/fall and have rarely materialized.

 

 

Come on, Brick.  It's only 12/5.  Hang in there, man.  Pull yourself together.  Read more WxSouth.  (Oh, and nice win for UNC last night.)

 

We'll just have to see who turns out being right.

[Cold Rain]

GGEM still banking on the E Canada vortex to cut under the Scand block and pull that back into Greenland.  Yeah it's the canadian but at least it's consistent here.

Now there's a good look!

[calculus1]

It is very very difficult for the country to be cold coast to coast and the atmosphere has a way of trying to balance out the temps to create equilibrium. With all the cold in Canada and the northern US, it is only natural for there to be a response somewhere, either the West or the Southeast, to counterbalance the extreme cold up north and unfortunately it looks like the SE this year. The deep trough will likely be predominately set up in the midwest this year, and even into the West at times as it retrogrades, and I look for a deep trough to get established over Alaska as we go on, and none of those factors are conducive to winter type weather in the  SE. The only way I can see this changing is for the NAO to go strongly negative and the PNA going positive and, while that is possible, it has not shown any signs in the LR of doing that for any extended period. The SE ridge as it is called is always there in the winter but the placement (and strength) of it does vary as sometimes it parks right over us, is pushed and anchors further south towards Cuba, or sets up east of Bermuda. It migrates by years and also often during the same winter and no one really knows what causes it to do so but it does have a profound affect on weather in our area and even in the MA and NE on occasion. It is by no means the only factor we have to consider, and all the indices have some effect on us, but the progressiveness of the pattern and fluctuations of the Pacific indices (primarily) this year indicated in the LR make for some interesting disagreements amongst weather professionals and aficionados. Point is I would not bet any money on my forecast or anyone else's for the LR as we know tons more how everything works in the atmosphere than we used to but still have myriads of things we don't know. I am not saying we can absolutely write off this winter and would never be that presumptuous, but it is only my opinion based admittedly on what little I know and understand about the weather, which is what I thought this thread was all about

 

You are fully entitled to your opinion, and you give good reasons for your beliefs regarding the overall pattern this winter.  This is an excellent thread in which to share that opinion too.  No worries, and I apologize if you felt I was attacking you personally.  I just happen to disagree your conclusions and lean more towards those of Robert.  (Of course, he may be completely wrong.)  I tend to believe, as you acknowledged, that there is so much still not understood about long-term weather patterns.  How can we even begin to presume what will happen over the long run?  I also tend to be an optimist, and so I will always look for the favorable with regards to the upcoming/ongoing winter rather than seek out all the things that could/will go wrong.  It's just a different perspective.  For me, hope springs eternal on December 5.  There is no telling what winter holds in store for us over the next 3+ months. I will always default to "This has a chance to be a potentially great winter" over "There's no way this winter will bring us anything great winter-weather-wise."  I don't think that makes me ignorant of reality, but rather just acknowledges that we still have lots of uncertainty about what will happen this weekend, and even more so about what will happen in January and beyond.

[Cold Rain]

This will be my last update for a few days, since I'll be on vacation.   Hopefully, by the time I get back, somebody will have fixed the pattern.  The SE ridge, the AO, the NAO, and the PNA are all broken and need to be taken to the shop.  So if anyone has time to take care of that, that would be grreeaat.  Oh, and I'm gonna need you to go ahead and come on in on Sunday too...

 

The AO looks to remain positive throughout the period.  After a dip back toward neutral, it looks to rocket back to the moon.  The NAO generally looks to be neutral, with spread out in time.  The PNA is still snorkeling around for awhile before coming back up for air at the end of the period.  The CFS still looks warm for January, though not as impressively so as it did the other day.  Weeks 1-3 are generally below normal for much of the SE with week 4 normal and warm in the central and western part of the country.  Precipitation looks to be normal to above throughout the period for much of the SE.

 

Looking at the models, the Euro, by 240, warms up the US with zonal flow.  Canada remains cold.  The 0z GFS more variable with huge ridging developing over AK by the end of the run and a big PV in central Canada.  The SE ridge pops from time to time but is generally squashed.  I don't see any real storm threats to get too excited about right now, though the period discussed earlier (next week) still bears watching.

[BullCityWx]

You are fully entitled to your opinion, and you give good reasons for your beliefs regarding the overall pattern this winter.  This is an excellent thread in which to share that opinion too.  No worries, and I apologize if you felt I was attacking you personally.  I just happen to disagree your conclusions and lean more towards those of Robert.  (Of course, he may be completely wrong.)  I tend to believe, as you acknowledged, that there is so much still not understood about long-term weather patterns.  How can we even begin to presume what will happen over the long run?  I also tend to be an optimist, and so I will always look for the favorable with regards to the upcoming/ongoing winter rather than seek out all the things that could/will go wrong.  It's just a different perspective.  For me, hope springs eternal on December 5.  There is no telling what winter holds in store for us over the next 3+ months. I will always default to "This has a chance to be a potentially great winter" over "There's no way this winter will bring us anything great winter-weather-wise."  I don't think that makes me ignorant of reality, but rather just acknowledges that we still have lots of uncertainty about what will happen this weekend, and even more so about what will happen in January and beyond.

 

I cant speak on January or February but I think it's clear that most of december is going to be shot to hell. We're probably going to be very close to setting an all time high for the month tomorrow. 

[Cold Rain]

To chime in on Michael's thoughts, I don't see any evidence to conclusively refute that opinion.  It's just as valid as any other point of view.  We are in a period, for whatever reason (ocean phases, climate change, other unknown factors, whatever) where we aren't seeing a lot of multi-year cold winters.  The general pattern wants to be warmer and less snowy in the winter than it does colder and more snowy.  Just given that, to predict a cold and snowy winter seems to contain greater risk than going the other way...at least until the trends change, if they ever do.  So, I understand the "realism", as some would say, of looking for anything that can break the pattern in favor of warm and expecting that to occur.  It is the least risky position from a forecasting standpoint.

 

You can make a fairly good scientific argument for warm or for cold.  We see it every year.  Persistence would argue for warm, and persistence is powerful, even though we might not understand exactly what's causing the atmosphere to "persist" in the way its behaving.

 

My personal opinion is that I don't believe we will experience the lack of winter like we've become accutomed to the last couple of years.  This is not because "we're due" (which doesn't influence the weather at all), even though we are.  It's more to do with the variability we are seeing so far.  The Pacific, which has driven our miserable winters the last couple of years, is acting much different this year.  At some point, we will get some blocking.  So the odds are much better that we'll line things up right a few times this year than they have been.  I'm basing most of this on the behavior of the Pacific so far and the fact that Canada is and looks to remain cold.  With strong HPs generating and sliding south, it's only a matter of time, assuming that continues.

 

I apprecaite all of the folks who do LR and winter forecasts.  It takes a lot of time and effort to put together.  But part of me hopes we never figure it out.  One of the most fun and exciting aspects of weather is the unpredictability of it.  It's exciting to see the snowstorm blow up out of nowhere and drop 20.3 inches on you, when the forecast was for 1-3 inches.  It's exciting to see the hurricane make a last minute course correction and move directly over you.  It's exciting to see a warm winter forecast bust and instead you get lots of cold and snow.  How exciting and fun would it be to know you were going to get wall to wall warmth and no snow?  Not very much.

 

Anyway, that's my opinion.  Have a good day, everyone!

[Brick Tamland]

I cant speak on January or February but I think it's clear that most of december is going to be shot to hell. We're probably going to be very close to setting an all time high for the month tomorrow. 

 

Just because it is warm right now doesn't mean the rest of the month is going to be bad. Even I know that. It's going to be in the 40s just three days from now. And we have often had big winter events here right after a warmup.

[BullCityWx]

Just because it is warm right now doesn't mean the rest of the month is going to be bad. Even I know that. It's going to be in the 40s just three days from now. And we have often had big winter events here right after a warmup.

 

The indicies are terrible, brick. At best we hang around normal after the one day cold shot that isnt even that cold. 

[BullCityWx]

+NAO, +AO, SE Ridge etc. 

 

It's been showing this for days in this time range. You guys can fool yourselves into being as pollyanna as possible. I prefer to stay here in reality. You've also got to understand that even when(or if at this point) they begin to show a pattern change, you almost always have to assume that pattern change is going to be delayed a week to 10 days. 

[Brick Tamland]

The indicies are terrible, brick. At best we hang around normal after the one day cold shot that isnt even that cold. 

 

Plenty of time for things to change, just like it did for the Panthers this year.   I really don't put much stock in the long range forecasts anyway. They are changing daily.

[BullCityWx]

Plenty of time for things to change, just like it did for the Panthers this year.   I really don't put much stock in the long range forecasts anyway. They are changing daily.

 

That's weenie BS. The models have been consistent for days with this long term pattern. 

 

[NCCatawba]

I have only been following wxrisk/wxsouth for about a year. I still don't see supperior accuracy from anyone in the long range. Early this week I was also in the bandwagon where wxsouth had nearly everyone in damaging ice on his map backed by long an long analysis with strong signals. All that changed in 24 hours. Things change overnight.

[Tacoma]

Same boring weather although its warm.  If I can't have snow I'll take warm but I sure would love to have some fun and games like what is in store for the midwest and Tenn. valley.  I sure wish we were getting ready for a big snowstorm and there is not one but another storm on its heels.  I can only dream that we were forecast for two storms together.  

[Met1985]

+NAO, +AO, SE Ridge etc. 

 

It's been showing this for days in this time range. You guys can fool yourselves into being as pollyanna as possible. I prefer to stay here in reality. You've also got to understand that even when(or if at this point) they begin to show a pattern change, you almost always have to assume that pattern change is going to be delayed a week to 10 days. 

The Teleconnections have been changing daily but things do not look good as of right know. I still think there is time for the pattern to change towards the end of the month but ya pretty much the next two weeks are looking rough.

[deltadog03]

That looks more like a potential for Severe weather vs Wintry weather.  December is going to be rough....At least the next few weeks it appears.  For those in the SE who get pissed off about this type weather, remember its the freakin SE, not midwest, not NE, not the Rockies.  Someone posted some dire warning post about how the mountains are struggling with the snow this early on.  Well, they KNOW what they are doing up there, BUT its the SE.....We don't have 8k bases and 12k peaks...Sorry for the rant...  The cold will come back, it always does, but so does the warmth at times.

[Met1985]

That looks more like a potential for Severe weather vs Wintry weather.  December is going to be rough....At least the next few weeks it appears.  For those in the SE who get pissed off about this type weather, remember its the freakin SE, not midwest, not NE, not the Rockies.  Someone posted some dire warning post about how the mountains are struggling with the snow this early on.  Well, they KNOW what they are doing up there, BUT its the SE.....We don't have 8k bases and 12k peaks...Sorry for the rant...  The cold will come back, it always does, but so does the warmth at times.

Lol good post. Asheville has an average high in the 50s still and we usually do not start cashing in on the pattern until January. I just look at last year and we did not start really getting into a good pattern until February.

[burgertime]

I think this winter at least early on is going to shape up to be as every winter around here a "perfect timing" situation. The difference is this year we will probably have many more transient cold shots. Does that increase our chances to get perfect timing? I would think so, but that's why I get paid to do something that has nothing to do with weather. I didn't keep track of Spring/Summer/Fall weather but from what everyone has said the models have been terrible in the LR so maybe that bodes well for us.

 

In short right now I feel about like this:

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That looks more like a potential for Severe weather vs Wintry weather. December is going to be rough....At least the next few weeks it appears. For those in the SE who get pissed off about this type weather, remember its the freakin SE, not midwest, not NE, not the Rockies. Someone posted some dire warning post about how the mountains are struggling with the snow this early on. Well, they KNOW what they are doing up there, BUT its the SE.....We don't have 8k bases and 12k peaks...Sorry for the rant... The cold will come back, it always does, but so does the warmth at times.

it would be easier to deal with if there weren't areas further south than us getting ice in TEXAS. I can accept areas north of here getting ice and snow, but when Dallas gets it and we don't, that's when I get upset.

[Cold Rain]

Are y'all reading the CAD thread? Big changes now.

 

This is why some people get annoyed with you.  What does this have to do with the December pattern?

[Vorticity]

FWIW, fyi from WSI:

 

"We are anticipating an end to the anamolous cold pattern in the US in the later half of December and early January with clear evidence of a pattern shift to milder for the eastern 2/3rds of the US with average to above average confidence"

[deltadog03]

The thing is, its actually easier is some, heck maybe more cases, to get wintry weather in TX because there is NOTHING to block the cold when it charges down the plains.  Then, pop a little SE ridge, and it could be overrunning for them for days....It just happens.

[burgertime]

The thing is, its actually easier is some, heck maybe more cases, to get wintry weather in TX because there is NOTHING to block the cold when it charges down the plains.  Then, pop a little SE ridge, and it could be overrunning for them for days....It just happens.

 

Indeed the past two winters have been great for DFW and north. I can't count how many times I almost raged when my family posted images of snow. 

[griteater]

12z Canadian has a southern special late next week.  Euro will come in 20 degrees warmer though here in a minute.

[franklin NCwx]

12z Canadian has a southern special late next week. Euro will come in 20 degrees warmer though here in a minute.

lol.. well it has been consistent with this. Not much on the gfs for this storm. It will either be squashed or a cutter.

[SnowGoose69]

lol.. well it has been consistent with this. Not much on the gfs for this storm. It will either be squashed or a cutter.

 

There is a period where the setup is great on the GFS Days 7-9 for a southern special but no real southern stream disturbance is there to kick it off, there is a very slight single out by El Paso and NRN MX but it never turns into much.

[rduwx]

The euro looks interesting starting around hr 174.  Looks like the euro and canadian are showing signs of good things around 12/12.

[franklin NCwx]

The euro looks interesting starting around hr 174. Looks like the euro and canadian are showing signs of good things around 12/12.

yes sir! Just saw this. Hopefully we can squeeze a southern slider out of this even though dec was cancelled.

[Wow]

Wow, the Euro suddenly looks pretty good in the LR.  Actually trended to the 0z GGEM with the retrogression of the Scand block back over toward Greenland.  Really need to see a good -NAO block form to have any chance of sustained cold/storminess.