buckeyefan1 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Oh, Canada: I can always count on the Canadiens to deliver my weekly fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yes, they read the models. You just sit in their shoulder eating a cracker, while repeating whatever they say. Nothing to watch unless with inn 72 hours and that's a long shot anymore. Getting excited over a storm a week away good luck unless blocking and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Man I hope he's right just once. After that one goes by i think we have to wait for a pattern reset. I am not buying the cold last 1/2 of Dec that some are selling. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good time to root for the Canadian... an actual Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 After 6 runs of building a Greenland block and retrograding it west the euro ensembles lost it at 0z and now 12z is worse. Ugly 500mb pattern across the us now. Canada stays cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No blocking in place, No winter storms in the SE. All else is simply fantasy land.... But yet we fall for it again and again!!! This is not to say it can't happen without blocking but it would have to be pure lucky timing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good time to root for the Canadian... an actual Greenland block. Yep. Greenland block and we're still a bakin'. Greenland block, SE ridge. No Greenland block, SE ridge. What's the diff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z Euro was again very close to popping something big but it was too warm for most of the SE. NC was on the border. 6z GFS looks close to the Euro for the same time frame. Euro has a weaker system @228 while GFS has it at 204. However 850's and SFC temps are almost identical. I still think this is the best time frame to look for our first real legit threat. Time will tell. Looks like wnc around the mtns. would do good in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yep. Greenland block and we're still a bakin'. Greenland block, SE ridge. No Greenland block, SE ridge. What's the diff? I prefer winter golf ridge. It does have its positive side. We've all seen winters where the ridge locks in and cold air repeatedly drops into the plains but when moving east is shunted up and over the winter golf ridge. Once it locks itself in it seems to hang on for a long time. It's early, so I am not saying we are definitely in for one of those winters, but the indications and trends are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No blocking in place, No winter storms in the SE. All else is simply fantasy land.... But yet we fall for it again and again!!! This is not to say it can't happen without blocking but it would have to be pure lucky timing....Preaching to the choir here buddy. I've learned the hard way. Will check back next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yep. Greenland block and we're still a bakin'. Greenland block, SE ridge. No Greenland block, SE ridge. What's the diff? I'll take the Canadian's solution if it gives us the day 7-8 fantasy storm it was showing at 12z. The Canadian is the ultimate weenie model today. Major ice storm on Sunday ... major Southeastern winter storm later in the week. Are we sure a weenie didn't tamper with it's initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The GFS has been flirting with the idea of dropping an inch of snow here next Tuesday. 18z continues that tease and tosses in some bonus sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The EPO seems to be getting ready to move towards the positive phase. A +EPO/AO is disgusting if you are a cold/snow lover. The AO should not be that surprising if you read the OPI thread which can predict the DJF AO with great accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Man, oh, man, here it comes again. A nice shower making a bee line for the not so cursed anymore lands. I sure love me some rain up from the south west, because it doesn't encounter those Alabama de rainalizers over toward the Newnan, and Carrollton part of the line....where they live, and have offspring I have to give it up for Goofy, who as said I'd get rain everyday, and so far, I have. It's sprinkling out there now, ahead of that band. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hey, everybody else can be looking for miracles and 1 in 1000 shots. I'll be the guy over here grounded in reality . What I've seen the past two days is there is going to be an extreme warm shot, one of the warmest we've ever seen in the history of record keeping at KCLT for this time of the month. That's followed by a 1 day cold shot which quickly moderates to normal or slightly above for a day or two then we go right back to +5 to +10 at the 850 level. There's basically no sign of any pattern change coming in the next 3 weeks. This December is pretty much like everybody had predicted before the winter began. Last time I checked it was Dec 4th...... You are acting as if it's Dec 31st already. Show a little patience man. We did not have a -AO in November and we still ended up at 4 degrees below normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Man, oh, man, here it comes again. A nice shower making a bee line for the not so cursed anymore lands. I sure love me some rain up from the south west, because it doesn't encounter those Alabama de rainalizers over toward the Newnan, and Carrollton part of the line....where they live, and have offspring I have to give it up for Goofy, who as said I'd get rain everyday, and so far, I have. It's sprinkling out there now, ahead of that band. T tony you're hilarious. Thanks for giving me a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 December is the least snowy month of the D-J-F-M period (at least it is here), so let's show some patience. We oftentimes have barely even tuned into winter by now. January/February are where we want to be rocking, if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 tony you're hilarious. Thanks for giving me a good laugh. Glad to help I've been out doing my best Gene Kelly....and another batch is leaving Pensacola station with Destination Tony stamped all over it. So...if Goofy could get the rain part right last week, what's to say the cold won't come on in soon too. For Tenn Sun, and the rest of us in a mere week to 10 days! LIfe is grand in the deep south. It's raining steady..the kind to get you wet. Not none of this having to run really fast to get two drops to hit you at the same time kind of stuff I'm used to The gulf is open, can the cold be far behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I prefer winter golf ridge. It does have its positive side. We've all seen winters where the ridge locks in and cold air repeatedly drops into the plains but when moving east is shunted up and over the winter golf ridge. Once it locks itself in it seems to hang on for a long time. It's early, so I am not saying we are definitely in for one of those winters, but the indications and trends are not good. Somebody needs to take a 9 iron to it. The LR GFS is usually pretty good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 How about a big birtha !!! Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 How about a big birtha !!! Mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As I said in the Winter Forecast thread, this winter will be a noteworthy one for the SE from Va southward but it will be because of the strong persistence of the SE Ridge and not for winter precipitation. It (the hated ridge) is starting to get established now and I see no reason or indication it will not persist for the vast majority of our winter with only occasional forays of cold "bleeding" through to get us to normal for short periods. Now it is possible that during one of those cooler periods, people in the northern most part of the SE could luck up and get a storm coinciding with the cooler air but I would not want to bet large sums of money on it. For those north and especially west of our region, it will indeed be a winter of note for those folks and one that will bring them lots of "fun" in the form of Sleet/Snow/ZR.The good folks in Tn, in and west of the Smokies, will likely have an eventful winter which is conceivable could last into March. Our ridge will eventually break down but I am afraid it will be well into Feb or even March before it does so, and we will likely have a cool and fairly violent Spring for those on the South Eastern Seaboard because of the strong clash of air masses as the cool air finally makes it over the mountains and bumps into the warmth trying to head northward as winter ends. The closest analog years to what I think this year will look like are 51-52, 52-53, 73-74, and 91-92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As I said in the Winter Forecast thread, this winter will be a noteworthy one for the SE from Va southward but it will be because of the strong persistence of the SE Ridge and not for winter precipitation. It (the hated ridge) is starting to get established now and I see no reason or indication it will not persist for the vast majority of our winter with only occasional forays of cold "bleeding" through to get us to normal for short periods. Now it is possible that during one of those cooler periods, people in the northern most part of the SE could luck up and get a storm coinciding with the cooler air but I would not want to bet large sums of money on it. For those north and especially west of our region, it will indeed be a winter of note for those folks and one that will bring them lots of "fun" in the form of Sleet/Snow/ZR.The good folks in Tn, in and west of the Smokies, will likely have an eventful winter which is conceivable could last into March. Our ridge will eventually break down but I am afraid it will be well into Feb or even March before it does so, and we will likely have a cool and fairly violent Spring for those on the South Eastern Seaboard because of the strong clash of air masses as the cool air finally makes it over the mountains and bumps into the warmth trying to head northward as winter ends. The closest analog years to what I think this year will look like are 51-52, 52-53, 73-74, and 91-92 I seems like 51-52 and 52-53 come up every year for the past 3 years. 50-51 is another analog that seems to be in there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As I said in the Winter Forecast thread, this winter will be a noteworthy one for the SE from Va southward but it will be because of the strong persistence of the SE Ridge and not for winter precipitation. It (the hated ridge) is starting to get established now and I see no reason or indication it will not persist for the vast majority of our winter with only occasional forays of cold "bleeding" through to get us to normal for short periods. Now it is possible that during one of those cooler periods, people in the northern most part of the SE could luck up and get a storm coinciding with the cooler air but I would not want to bet large sums of money on it. For those north and especially west of our region, it will indeed be a winter of note for those folks and one that will bring them lots of "fun" in the form of Sleet/Snow/ZR.The good folks in Tn, in and west of the Smokies, will likely have an eventful winter which is conceivable could last into March. Our ridge will eventually break down but I am afraid it will be well into Feb or even March before it does so, and we will likely have a cool and fairly violent Spring for those on the South Eastern Seaboard because of the strong clash of air masses as the cool air finally makes it over the mountains and bumps into the warmth trying to head northward as winter ends. The closest analog years to what I think this year will look like are 51-52, 52-53, 73-74, and 91-92 Not ready to throw in the towel and bow to the SE ridge because is sets up and sticks it to us over the course of a week or two. It's not been the predominant pattern to this point this year so it will be interesting to see if it becomes a semi-perm feature. I think we may very well have a continuing good Pacific for Jan/Feb with the occasional amount of blocking in the Atlantic for the same time period. That would yield an opportunity or two/three for the south which would be pretty typical (not that we have had typical the last several years). Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As I said in the Winter Forecast thread, this winter will be a noteworthy one for the SE from Va southward but it will be because of the strong persistence of the SE Ridge and not for winter precipitation. It (the hated ridge) is starting to get established now and I see no reason or indication it will not persist for the vast majority of our winter with only occasional forays of cold "bleeding" through to get us to normal for short periods. Now it is possible that during one of those cooler periods, people in the northern most part of the SE could luck up and get a storm coinciding with the cooler air but I would not want to bet large sums of money on it. For those north and especially west of our region, it will indeed be a winter of note for those folks and one that will bring them lots of "fun" in the form of Sleet/Snow/ZR.The good folks in Tn, in and west of the Smokies, will likely have an eventful winter which is conceivable could last into March. Our ridge will eventually break down but I am afraid it will be well into Feb or even March before it does so, and we will likely have a cool and fairly violent Spring for those on the South Eastern Seaboard because of the strong clash of air masses as the cool air finally makes it over the mountains and bumps into the warmth trying to head northward as winter ends. The closest analog years to what I think this year will look like are 51-52, 52-53, 73-74, and 91-92 Very good post. I agree with the Tennessee part. Winter is game on from there to Louisiana with this pattern. It will take very good timing to get a winter storm in NC...which is really nothing new to be honest. I can see it happening...and with one storm we can meet our average or go above it and call it a winter. However, I am not confident to dismiss the second half of winter into early Spring...it's too difficult to tell I would just be guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As I said in the Winter Forecast thread, this winter will be a noteworthy one for the SE from Va southward but it will be because of the strong persistence of the SE Ridge and not for winter precipitation. It (the hated ridge) is starting to get established now and I see no reason or indication it will not persist for the vast majority of our winter with only occasional forays of cold "bleeding" through to get us to normal for short periods. Now it is possible that during one of those cooler periods, people in the northern most part of the SE could luck up and get a storm coinciding with the cooler air but I would not want to bet large sums of money on it. For those north and especially west of our region, it will indeed be a winter of note for those folks and one that will bring them lots of "fun" in the form of Sleet/Snow/ZR.The good folks in Tn, in and west of the Smokies, will likely have an eventful winter which is conceivable could last into March. Our ridge will eventually break down but I am afraid it will be well into Feb or even March before it does so, and we will likely have a cool and fairly violent Spring for those on the South Eastern Seaboard because of the strong clash of air masses as the cool air finally makes it over the mountains and bumps into the warmth trying to head northward as winter ends. The closest analog years to what I think this year will look like are 51-52, 52-53, 73-74, and 91-92 So sick of there always being something to cause things to suck the last few years here, even with the players on the field supposedly looking good. They can't produce any wins lately, though, so it doesn't matter. There is one thing or another that can't be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The southeast ridge is strong right now bobbitt, no denying that. It's possible it could be that way for MUCH of December Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As I said in the Winter Forecast thread, this winter will be a noteworthy one for the SE from Va southward but it will be because of the strong persistence of the SE Ridge and not for winter precipitation. It (the hated ridge) is starting to get established now and I see no reason or indication it will not persist for the vast majority of our winter with only occasional forays of cold "bleeding" through to get us to normal for short periods. Now it is possible that during one of those cooler periods, people in the northern most part of the SE could luck up and get a storm coinciding with the cooler air but I would not want to bet large sums of money on it. For those north and especially west of our region, it will indeed be a winter of note for those folks and one that will bring them lots of "fun" in the form of Sleet/Snow/ZR.The good folks in Tn, in and west of the Smokies, will likely have an eventful winter which is conceivable could last into March. Our ridge will eventually break down but I am afraid it will be well into Feb or even March before it does so, and we will likely have a cool and fairly violent Spring for those on the South Eastern Seaboard because of the strong clash of air masses as the cool air finally makes it over the mountains and bumps into the warmth trying to head northward as winter ends. The closest analog years to what I think this year will look like are 51-52, 52-53, 73-74, and 91-92 And, this is the beauty of long-range forecasting. No one has any clue for certain what will happen. Robert (WxSouth) is about as opposite as he can be from your point of view: The Subtropical Jetstream is cranking up and will become an increasingly big factor as we go into December. This also has been absent the last couple of Winters. This Winter is shaping up to be a throwback "Old Fashioned" type of Winter, with storms and cold in much of the country, which also fits my Winter Outlook from October. I think for now that I'll stick to Robert Gamble and trust his many years of excellent forecasting rather than worry about a week-long warm period. Those crazy warm-ups have long been advertised on the GFS this summer/fall and have rarely materialized. So sick of there always being something to cause things to suck the last few years here, even with the players on the field supposedly looking good. They can't produce any wins lately, though, so it doesn't matter. There is one thing or another that can't be overcome. Come on, Brick. It's only 12/5. Hang in there, man. Pull yourself together. Read more WxSouth. (Oh, and nice win for UNC last night.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seriously calc I totally agree. It is the beginning of December, no long range forecast can tell us if its going to snow on February 10th. Lets all let a warm pattern lock into place for a couple of weeks before throwing in the towel on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It is very very difficult for the country to be cold coast to coast and the atmosphere has a way of trying to balance out the temps to create equilibrium. With all the cold in Canada and the northern US, it is only natural for there to be a response somewhere, either the West or the Southeast, to counterbalance the extreme cold up north and unfortunately it looks like the SE this year. The deep trough will likely be predominately set up in the midwest this year, and even into the West at times as it retrogrades, and I look for a deep trough to get established over Alaska as we go on, and none of those factors are conducive to winter type weather in the SE. The only way I can see this changing is for the NAO to go strongly negative and the PNA going positive and, while that is possible, it has not shown any signs in the LR of doing that for any extended period. The SE ridge as it is called is always there in the winter but the placement (and strength) of it does vary as sometimes it parks right over us, is pushed and anchors further south towards Cuba, or sets up east of Bermuda. It migrates by years and also often during the same winter and no one really knows what causes it to do so but it does have a profound affect on weather in our area and even in the MA and NE on occasion. It is by no means the only factor we have to consider, and all the indices have some effect on us, but the progressiveness of the pattern and fluctuations of the Pacific indices (primarily) this year indicated in the LR make for some interesting disagreements amongst weather professionals and aficionados. Point is I would not bet any money on my forecast or anyone else's for the LR as we know tons more how everything works in the atmosphere than we used to but still have myriads of things we don't know. I am not saying we can absolutely write off this winter and would never be that presumptuous, but it is only my opinion based admittedly on what little I know and understand about the weather, which is what I thought this thread was all about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.