Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Mid November had a big postive qbo push, but from one source a free fall is possible even going too neutral bye February?

According to what I've read, that would be good for blocking. I don't understand all of this as much as I'd like, though.

[Met1985]

I was encouraged with what I saw with the possibility of a negative NAO developing towards the middle of the month. All we need is the southern jet to remain active and get a storm similar to what we had last week. I would like to see the AO go negative, but the PNA does appear to be moving positive, so these are all good signs for the southeast!

I really like seeing were the indicies are going. Get son  blocking and an active southern stream and we will be set.

[Wow]

0z GFS keeping the SE ridge at bay with the arctic push.  Keeps the pesky pos tilted SW trough from settling in by 162 hrs.

 

[Stovepipe]

Ice skating in west Tennessee Friday night.  Whose with me?

 

[Wow]

Ice skating in west Tennessee Friday night.  Whose with me?

 

 

 

Whose?

[Marion_NC_WX]

Boy...lookie what we have at the end of truncation.

 

[Isopycnic]

Boy...lookie what we have at the end of truncation.

 

 

Seriously? 

[Marion_NC_WX]

Seriously? 

 

 

Post-Siberian blast, I'll take that digging shortwave sliding across the Gulf Coast States.

[Southern Track]

Post-Siberian blast, I'll take that digging shortwave sliding across the Gulf Coast States.

I would agree. I hate knowing it's that far out and only one run though.

[griteater]

Post-Siberian blast, I'll take that digging shortwave sliding across the Gulf Coast States.

I would agree. I hate knowing it's that far out and only one run though.

 

It's a time frame to at least keep an eye on.  Euro had a similar look, but was warmer.  The 18z GFS Ensemble Mean agrees with the 00z GFS on the big, sprawling cold PV anomaly that traverses west to east across southern Canada.  Could be the GFS cold bias, but it has support from its ensemble mean.  Here are the sfc temp anomalies in that same time frame from the 18z GFS Ensemble.  Then its a question as to whether a system can trek across the south underneath the cold.

 

[HKY18]

The top 3 analogs on the 11 day super ensemble indicate a frigid northern tier, withthe southeast near normal

Rolling these analogs foward two weeks seems to indicate a deep trough on the eastern seaboard with ridging in the midwest. But a deep trough over the GOA.

[burgertime]

00z Euro was again very close to popping something big but it was too warm for most of the SE. NC was on the border. 6z GFS looks close to the Euro for the same time frame. Euro has a weaker system @228 while GFS has it at 204. However 850's and SFC temps are almost identical. I still think this is the best time frame to look for our first real legit threat. Time will tell. 



 

[FallsLake]

00z Euro was again very close to popping something big but it was too warm for most of the SE. NC was on the border. 6z GFS looks close to the Euro for the same time frame. Euro has a weaker system @228 while GFS has it at 204. However 850's and SFC temps are almost identical. I still think this is the best time frame to look for our first real legit threat. Time will tell. 

 

Plus we will have cold air intially in place. This would give more credence to this potential event over the current one.

[NCCatawba]

burgertime

Today, 06:41 AM

00z Euro was again very close to popping something big but it was too warm for most of the SE. NC was on the border. 6z GFS looks close to the Euro for the same time frame. Euro has a weaker system @228 while GFS has it at 204. However 850's and SFC temps are almost identical. I still think this is the best time frame to look for our first real legit threat. Time will tell.

It does if the system doesn't stay so suppressed. Let's please not make a thread for this btw.

[FallsLake]

Nothing really good to post about the indices:

 

Next 7 days

NAO - Goes to neutral or slightly negative (Average). **runs in LR look more positive than negative(Bad)

PNA - Dives more negative(Bad). **runs do try to go towards neutral in the LR(Average)

AO - Goes to neutral(Average). **runs in the LR look more positive(Bad)

[Cold Rain]

Nothing really good to post about the indices:

 

Next 7 days

NAO - Goes to neutral or slightly negative (Average). **runs in LR look more positive than negative(Bad)

PNA - Dives more negative(Bad). **runs do try to go towards neutral in the LR(Average)

AO - Goes to neutral(Average). **runs in the LR look more positive(Bad)

 

You forgot the CFS!    Weeks 1-3 now look either normal or below for much of the SE, with week 4 being warm virtually coast to coast.  Precipitation now shows mostly normal to above normal through the period.  It continues the theme of a warm January for the US.

 

And to follow up on the AO post by Falls, you would be hard pressed to find an uglier AO prog, so I thought I'd capture it for posterity:

[Cold Rain]

Snowstorm incoming:

 

 

[BullCityWx]

Until the indices get right, it's going to take a minor miracle to even stay normal, more or less have any winter events.

[Cold Rain]

Until the indices get right, it's going to take a minor miracle to even stay normal, more or less have any winter events.

 

It's Christmas, Theo.  It's the time of miracles.  So be of good cheer....

[BullCityWx]

It's Christmas, Theo. It's the time of miracles. So be of good cheer....

Hey, everybody else can be looking for miracles and 1 in 1000 shots. I'll be the guy over here grounded in reality .

What I've seen the past two days is there is going to be an extreme warm shot, one of the warmest we've ever seen in the history of record keeping at KCLT for this time of the month. That's followed by a 1 day cold shot which quickly moderates to normal or slightly above for a day or two then we go right back to +5 to +10 at the 850 level. There's basically no sign of any pattern change coming in the next 3 weeks. This December is pretty much like everybody had predicted before the winter began.

[DaculaWeather]

Those teleconnections graphs change wildly daily. I've found it hard to trust them much past 5 days. 

[FallsLake]

Hey, everybody else can be looking for miracles and 1 in 1000 shots. I'll be the guy over here grounded in reality .

What I've seen the past two days is there is going to be an extreme warm shot, one of the warmest we've ever seen in the history of record keeping at KCLT for this time of the month. That's followed by a 1 day cold shot which quickly moderates to normal or slightly above for a day or two then we go right back to +5 to +10 at the 850 level. There's basically no sign of any pattern change coming in the next 3 weeks. This December is pretty much like everybody had predicted before the winter began.

We still have the next event. Even if we don't see frozen precip it will be below normal. One thing to think about; a good portion of November had bad indice numbers(or at least not great), but we ended up below normal.

[Cold Rain]

Hey, everybody else can be looking for miracles and 1 in 1000 shots. I'll be the guy over here grounded in reality .

What I've seen the past two days is there is going to be an extreme warm shot, one of the warmest we've ever seen in the history of record keeping at KCLT for this time of the month. That's followed by a 1 day cold shot which quickly moderates to normal or slightly above for a day or two then we go right back to +5 to +10 at the 850 level. There's basically no sign of any pattern change coming in the next 3 weeks. This December is pretty much like everybody had predicted before the winter began.

 

I'm just messing with you.  It's a quote from one of the best action movies ever, which just happens to be on the annual Christmas movie list.   But I hear you.  Good to have tempered expectations.  You just can't throw out what the models are showing just because they're not showing cold and snowstorms for our area.  On the other hand, the reality is that the global expectation for November was warm.  It turned out not to be.  The global expectation for December is to be warm.  We'll see....

[WxJordan]

At this point, nothing is able to "lock in" and hang around. We get shots of cold air; however, they are quickly being replaced by warm air because high pressure is not remaining to our north. We really need the teleconnections to trend favorable. While we can get winter storms and cold air without favorable teleconnections, it all comes down to timing, which is very difficult to forecast.

 

I was talking to my parents yesterday about winter weather. They said that it used to hardly ever be this cold before Christmas. According to them, they said snows usually didn't start occurring until January and February, and they are right. We had a couple of early season events the past five years, and I think it is important to remember that the heart of winter occurs in January and February. Additionally, we are due for a bad February. I can not remember a February where we had major winter storms in the past few years.

[Cold Rain]

At this point, nothing is able to "lock in" and hang around. We get shots of cold air; however, they are quickly being replaced by warm air because high pressure is not remaining to our north. We really need the teleconnections to trend favorable. While we can get winter storms and cold air without favorable teleconnections, it all comes down to timing, which is very difficult to forecast.

I was talking to my parents yesterday about winter weather. They said that it used to hardly ever be this cold before Christmas. According to them, they said snows usually didn't start occurring until January and February, and they are right. We had a couple of early season events the past five years, and I think it is important to remember that the heart of winter occurs in January and February. Additionally, we are due for a bad February. I can not remember a February where we had major winter storms in the past few years.

Very true. And the We're Due index is approaching record levels. Historically speaking, it shouldn't extend much too much longer.

[Brick Tamland]

At this point, nothing is able to "lock in" and hang around. We get shots of cold air; however, they are quickly being replaced by warm air because high pressure is not remaining to our north. We really need the teleconnections to trend favorable. While we can get winter storms and cold air without favorable teleconnections, it all comes down to timing, which is very difficult to forecast.

 

I was talking to my parents yesterday about winter weather. They said that it used to hardly ever be this cold before Christmas. According to them, they said snows usually didn't start occurring until January and February, and they are right. We had a couple of early season events the past five years, and I think it is important to remember that the heart of winter occurs in January and February. Additionally, we are due for a bad February. I can not remember a February where we had major winter storms in the past few years.

 

Yes, it seems since 2000 our big winter events have happened more often in December and January than February, even though February is the month that averages more snow here.

[BullCityWx]

Oh, Canada: 

[nchighcountrywx]

This month has quickly turned into an economic disaster for the NC High Country ski slopes. Our friends that run the slopes really need winter weather to cooperate.

At this point, we are already losing at least a third of the winter, and the best part of winter to the SE Ridge.

Although no one can say exactly how the significant pattern change will play out, at this time, if I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Paul Pastlock at Accuweather winter forecast. Although not what we want, this is playing right into Paul's forecast.

Very disappointing...

[NCSNOW]

This month has quickly turned into an economic disaster for the NC High Country ski slopes. Our friends that run the slopes really need winter weather to cooperate.

At this point, we are already losing at least a third of the winter, and the best part of winter to the SE Ridge.

Although no one can say exactly how the significant pattern change will play out, at this time, if I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Paul Pastelock at Accuweather winter forecast. Although not what we want, this is playing right into Paul's forecast.

Very dissapointing...

 I wouldn't call it a disaster. They had the best Thanksgiving weekend /  ski conditions probably ever this past weekend.  See current snowpack http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/ that's gonna take a beating for the next 60-72 hours. But rest assured by Monday night it will look like a winter wonderland. In fact next week has excellent snow making oppurtunities not to mention the possibility of some help from mother nature. Just got to get this bad weekend out of the way.

[jburns]

At this point, nothing is able to "lock in" and hang around. We get shots of cold air; however, they are quickly being replaced by warm air because high pressure is not remaining to our north. We really need the teleconnections to trend favorable. While we can get winter storms and cold air without favorable teleconnections, it all comes down to timing, which is very difficult to forecast.

 

I was talking to my parents yesterday about winter weather. They said that it used to hardly ever be this cold before Christmas. According to them, they said snows usually didn't start occurring until January and February, and they are right. We had a couple of early season events the past five years, and I think it is important to remember that the heart of winter occurs in January and February. Additionally, we are due for a bad February. I can not remember a February where we had major winter storms in the past few years.

 

Oh my.  That overdue stuff is weenie worthy.