Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[pcbjr]

And here is the 240 Euro.  It shows more ridging along the west coast than the 240 GFS.  The storm track is still across the southern tier, with a cold Canada.  So again, not a true zonal flow.  Last year, we had zonal flow from across the Pacific with no real ridging or cross-polar flow to bring cold into the continent.  This was in part thanks to a big GOA low, which hasn't been present this winter so far.  Here we almost have an Aleutian low:

 

Thanks!

[wxgeek]

Some freebie sites that come out fairly quick...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Thanks for the info. 

[Cold Rain]

Thanks!

You bet buddy. The flow across the US is technically fairly zonal, but it's not what we tend to think of when we think of zonal flow, with a storm track well north and warmth for all.

[griteater]

You bet buddy. The flow across the US is technically fairly zonal, but it's not what we tend to think of when we think of zonal flow, with a storm track well north and warmth for all.

 

I agree CR.  It's a fairly zonal flow which is typically warm/wet followed by cool/dry (or just warm wet / mild dry)...but this go around the fly in the ointment is the tropospheric PV and associated cold pool hanging out close by in Canada and across the northern tier.

CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 11 - 17 2013

FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A STRONG, RETROGRADING 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. IN GENERAL, MODELS ARE PREDICTING A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS RELATIVE TO THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE RESULTING 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, DEPICTS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS UNDERNEATH BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE HIGHEST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA SUPPORT A COLD PATTERN. CONVERSELY, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS.

[griteater]

Poor Waycross...

 

[Cold Rain]

Grit, has the latest QBO number come out yet? Do you know?

[nchighcountrywx]

Poor Waycross...

Amazing the winter weather we would have if not for the SE Pig Ridge!

[superjames1992]

Florida is like the gateway to hell on that CPC outlook. All alone, too... Well, except for Barrow, AK.

[griteater]

Grit, has the latest QBO number come out yet? Do you know?

 

Nov QBO anomaly at 30mb came in at +16.31 ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index ) the positive QBO is holding strong for sure.  Solar Flux has been in the neutral range over the past 2 weeks.

[DaculaWeather]

Is anyone looking at the teleconnections? Around the 12-16th, the NAO goes very negative, the AO is slowly leaning toward a fairly negative value, and the PNA is rising toward zero after a pretty good dip, all around the same time. I see something big happening around then.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconnections_graphs.php

 

Keep in mind, the 14 day correlation to obs isn't too good (although the AO is much better to forecast than the others), but it sure looks like a pretty decent setup coming down the road.  

[DaculaWeather]

I remember reading somewhere about how the CPC maps have a poor record compared to obs. I remember watching those last winter and they'd show all of this great cold coming but the cold never came. I finally gave up looking at them after getting disappointed over and over. 

 

I guess time will tell, but my bet is that they are wrong still. 

[Cold Rain]

Nov QBO anomaly at 30mb came in at +16.31 ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index ) the positive QBO is holding strong for sure. Solar Flux has been in the neutral range over the past 2 weeks.

That's not good, right? According to DT, we wanted to see that move lower toward the 10 range. That's up pretty good from last month's reading, right?

[FallsLake]

Is anyone looking at the teleconnections? Around the 12-16th, the NAO goes very negative, the AO is slowly leaning toward a fairly negative value, and the PNA is rising toward zero after a pretty good dip, all around the same time. I see something big happening around then.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconnections_graphs.php

 

Keep in mind, the 14 day correlation to obs isn't too good (although the AO is much better to forecast than the others), but it sure looks like a pretty decent setup coming down the road.  

I saw that (great news on the -NAO). We really need to get the PNA to build positive. Looks like we aready have plenty of cold in North America so a neutral AO should be fine. **just don't want the Pacific air to push across the Rockies.

[griteater]

That's not good, right? According to DT, we wanted to see that move lower toward the 10 range. That's up pretty good from last month's reading, right?

It's actually the same value as Oct, but the +QBO at 30mb peaked in August at +21.36.  Not sure on DT's thoughts...we're on the back end of the +QBO phase, but it's holding pretty strong right now.

[SnowNiner]

Is anyone looking at the teleconnections? Around the 12-16th, the NAO goes very negative, the AO is slowly leaning toward a fairly negative value, and the PNA is rising toward zero after a pretty good dip, all around the same time. I see something big happening around then.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconnections_graphs.php

 

Keep in mind, the 14 day correlation to obs isn't too good (although the AO is much better to forecast than the others), but it sure looks like a pretty decent setup coming down the road.  

 

If we get the PNA positive that means the ridge has come back east where we need it to feed us the cold.  If the NAO goes negative and we get ridging in the Atlantic too, that would be the period to watch, keeping the storms to the south.  I wonder if that matches up with the period Allan was watching out for that the ensembles were hinting at.  Some time mid month.  We'll see how it evolves.  Tomorrow the indicies may turn the other way, I don't know.

[DaculaWeather]

They've actually changed quite a bit over the last 3-5 days... maybe catching on to something? We'll see.

[Cold Rain]

It's actually the same value as Oct, but the +QBO at 30mb peaked in August at +21.36. Not sure on DT's thoughts...we're on the back end of the +QBO phase, but it's holding pretty strong right now.

He basically contends that a +QBO moving down, getting under +10 is good for eastern cold. I thought the last reading was around 12. I guess I made that up. Anyway, thanks for the info.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles continue to retrograde the Scandinavian ridge over Greenland and back over the davis strait. Hopefully this verifies and good times are ahead.

[griteater]

He basically contends that a +QBO moving down, getting under +10 is good for eastern cold. I thought the last reading was around 12. I guess I made that up. Anyway, thanks for the info.

OK, he may be going by the mean zonal wind value which was +12.45 for Nov at 30mb

[Cold Rain]

OK, he may be going by the mean zonal wind value which was +12.45 for Nov at 30mb

 

Hmmm...maybe so.  The previous value was +11.69, so it was up slightly this month.

[pcbjr]

Florida is like the gateway to hell on that CPC outlook. All alone, too... Well, except for Barrow, AK.

 

Very well said. 

[pcbjr]

Post Script -

 

Nothing on the 18z GFS knocks down that dadgum SE ridge, even into fantasy land time:

 

 

 

[pcbjr]

If anyone gets bored, here's an interesting read:

 

Feb 1899.pdf

[superjames1992]

If anyone gets bored, here's an interesting read:

Feb 1899.pdf

Good stuff! Thanks for posting!

[pcbjr]

Good stuff! Thanks for posting!

 

Hey, with an arctic blast on the horizon, and maybe a cross-polar flow, even though not getting way down south, I thought, maybe, the someday potential and dynamics might interest someone.

 

Phil

[BullCityWx]

Average daily temp at Charlotte on Friday is 44 degrees. If you believe the euro, we're looking at a day that is going to be nearly +25 or +26.

[Cold Rain]

Average daily temp at Charlotte on Friday is 44 degrees. If you believe the euro, we're looking at a day that is going to be nearly +25 or +26.

That's awesome. Great weather for getting the outdoors prepared for the big ice storm!

[bobbitt]

Mid November had a big postive qbo push, but from one source a free fall is possible even going too neutral bye February?

[mackerel_sky]

Poor Waycross... That statement says so much!

[WxJordan]

I was encouraged with what I saw with the possibility of a negative NAO developing towards the middle of the month. All we need is the southern jet to remain active and get a storm similar to what we had last week. I would like to see the AO go negative, but the PNA does appear to be moving positive, so these are all good signs for the southeast!