Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[wxgeek]

Ok I kind of guessed that..... Why wouldn't  the folks responsible for the publication of the models be first....oh wait, its the government..never mind...retorical question.

[DaculaWeather]

It's seeing the -NAO...

[Cold Rain]

I always look forward to your summaries, thank you.

 

Thanks, sir!

 

Yeah, great summary!!

 

Right now, I still think the winter outlook looks okay.  December is probably ok too.  The -EPO is there, the ridge is there, it's just displaced.  It moved west, it can slide and move back east.  I think we'll continue to hit cold here and there routinely based on it sliding back and forth.  It's not like there's a vortex in Alaska like the last two years, so that's good.

 

I keep telling myself that December is not the Southeast's month as well and truly, I'm waiting for January and February for something.  I'm still holding out for my Miller A in mid January with either a nice 50/50 low or blocking keeping it in the FL panhandle.  Hmmmm, I make up my own fantasy storms in my mind.

 

This is a feature that doesn't seem to be a permanent staple this year, which is great...but it still makes me nervous seeing it show up there for several runs in a row.

 

Looking at the ensembles, I am more encouraged than discouraged.  I am hoping we can get the Pacific to cooperate with the Atlantic somewhere down the road in December.

 

Hopefully I am a voice of reason when I say, "it's only December 3rd" - and we have already had threats to follow.  Kind of neat when you think about it. 

 

I can't remember ANY wall to wall cold and snowy winters in my lifetime and that's because we live in the south.  All it takes is a good two-three week stretch or a couple of well timed storms and most of this board would be happy.

 

Very good reasonable outlook.  It would be very nice to see blocking return in a big way.  But yeah, the fact that we've already tracked 3 events now (two of which have brought a bit of snow/ice already) is pretty amazing.

 

My guess is that the 12Z gfs has swung too far the other way wit this pretty extreme scenario. Fwiw, it has teen lows at RDU and ATL on 12/11 an 12/12. Very cold and dry. In this case, no SE ridge may be hurting since no resistance/battle/overrunning.

 

Hopefully, the dryness is an anomaly.  We've had a little bit of a decent run with southern stream systems lately.  Hopefully, we can keep that going.  With cold at least nearby, we should continue to have systems to track...at least until we get within 120 hrs anyway.

[wxgeek]

I am still stuck at  hr 204,  how does the rest of the 12 GFS look?

[Wow]

I am still stuck at  hr 204,  how does the rest of the 12 GFS look?

 

Like crap. ++AO/NAO -PNA. December going down the tubes if this is right.

[Brick Tamland]

Yes, it's good if the players on the field look good, but if they don't produce a win, then it's all for nothing. And there is no guarantee the players might start looking worse.

[wxgeek]

Mine just updated...some...  looks to go very zonal following the cold around the 11th.

[chapelhillwx]

At 192 hours the GFS has a bubble of -26C 850s in West Virginia. Daytime highs in the teens and lower 20s for most of NC at 204. Vodka cold indeed, followed by a torch lol.

[GaWx]

Based on 12z gfs ensemble means, it appears to me that there's now battle between the new colder/drier scenario for 12/11-12 and those still going with the less cold but wetter scenario with CAD and overrunning. Looks like low confidence period as of now. Going to be fun to see future runs, including Euro.

 

Edit: Fwiw 12Z gfs per MeteoStar has highs below freezing much of upper SE for 12/11 following teen lows. KATL down to 15 on 12/11 and KRDU down to 15 on 12/12 for coldest of this period.

[Dunkman]

At 192 hours the GFS has a bubble of -26C 850s in West Virginia. Daytime highs in the teens and lower 20s for most of NC at 204. Vodka cold indeed, followed by a torch lol.

This entire year has featured models showing torches in the long run that didn't verify. I am not going to worry just yet.

[Brick Tamland]

Based on 12z gfs ensemble means, it appears to me that there's now battle between the new colder/drier scenario for 12/11-12 and those still going with the less cold but wetter scenario with CAD and overrunning. Looks like low confidence period as of now. Going to be fun to see future runs, including Euro.

 

Edit: Fwiw 12Z gfs per MeteoStar has highs below freezing much of upper SE for 12/11 following teen lows. KATL down to 15 on 12/11 and KRDU down to 15 on 12/12 for coldest of this period.

 

Impressive, but I hope it's not just cold and dry. What a waste.

[griteater]

Where are you guys getting your FGS modeling from?  I have been getting mine from the Noaa  ncep site, but they are painfully slow.

Some freebie sites that come out fairly quick...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

[Dr. Steve Brule]

Im liking this ggem on the 9th

[Bevo]

I kind of agree with Robert as to what might be happening with longer range warmth progs.  Let's all be real honest for a minute - since March, the progged warm ups never really materialized (save 1 or 2). This is the opposite of what we dealt with last winter - progged cold that never really took the stage. 

 

From WxSouth on FB:

 

"-WPO pattern fooling models past day 6 or so. Will keep Arctic Waves diving into Canada and US through mid December , bitter blasts to come"

 

I realize he may not be speaking to the SE as a whole, and I may not be sold on "bitter blasts", but so far we have had cold waves and winter precip - ho-hum indices be damned.

 

Until I see the progged warm ups actually occur with consistency, I think I'll continue to go with what has actually been happening - plus or minus a few warm days here and there. This is still the south.

[FallsLake]

I kind of agree with Robert as to what might be happening with longer range warmth progs.  Let's all be real honest for a minute - since March, the progged warm ups never really materialized (save 1 or 2). This is the opposite of what we dealt with last winter - progged cold that never really took the stage. 

 

From WxSouth on FB:

 

"-WPO pattern fooling models past day 6 or so. Will keep Arctic Waves diving into Canada and US through mid December , bitter blasts to come"

 

I realize he may not be speaking to the SE as a whole, and I may not be sold on "bitter blasts", but so far we have had cold waves and winter precip - ho-hum indices be damned.

 

Until I see the progged warm ups actually occur with consistency, I think I'll continue to go with what has actually been happening - plus or minus a few warm days here and there. This is still the south.

I agree, and think it's amazing that we've had the cold the last month when the indices we're never that good.

[GaWx]

Impressive, but I hope it's not just cold and dry. What a waste.

 

The 12Z Euro agrees pretty much with the 12Z gfs on the strong cold for 12/10 PM through 12/12 AM. Get your mittens ready!

[BullCityWx]

The Canadian is an excellent CAD model, fyi. 

[Lookout]

12z euro is showing some amazing cold over the ohio valley/Tennessee valley/mid ms valley day days 8-10 thanks to some snow cover. Widespread lows in the single digits below 0 on day 8 and lows in the teens below zero day 9 in WV and ky..with temps near 0 into ne arkansas and northern tn. Just run of the mill cold with lows in the 20s here.

[NEGa]

Fwiw I would much rather see/have the colder temps. Moisture can pop up from the gulf or overrunning. Having the cold in place first in se is usually better for winter wx. Most of the time it's moisture out running the cold or the infamous 33 and rain.

[BullCityWx]

Fwiw I would much rather see/have the colder temps. Moisture can pop up from the gulf or overrunning. Having the cold in place first in se is usually better for winter wx. Most of the time it's moisture out running the cold or the infamous 33 and rain.

 

I agree totally with that.

[Brick Tamland]

Fwiw I would much rather see/have the colder temps. Moisture can pop up from the gulf or overrunning. Having the cold in place first in se is usually better for winter wx. Most of the time it's moisture out running the cold or the infamous 33 and rain.

 

True, I just hate seeing the cold get here and it just stays dry and there is nothing fun to go along with it. The only good use for cold weather is the snow to go along with it.

[pcbjr]

Am I reading the last few runs right?

 

Are the models showing a zonal flow after about the 12th - 15th?

 

I know it is a long way out but it seems to me that has been a pretty consistent feature.

 

Hopefully someone can explain to me why I'm wrong (other than the obvious its out in la la land by the 12th - 15th!!!).

 

Thanks! 

[BullCityWx]

Euro never gets cold across most of the Carolinas

[burgertime]

Fwiw I would much rather see/have the colder temps. Moisture can pop up from the gulf or overrunning. Having the cold in place first in se is usually better for winter wx. Most of the time it's moisture out running the cold or the infamous 33 and rain.

 

End of the 12z Euro is actually very close to popping something. We need to watch that time frame carefully especially if this cold air mass indeed materializes the way models are indicating.  

[superjames1992]

The day 8-12 tine range does look interesting on some of the modeling. Of course, our next fantasy storm is always a week away.

The GFS ENS mean looked cold enough for snow, so I'd imagine several of its members had some goodies.

[burgertime]

Euro never gets cold across most of the Carolinas

 

Not arctic cold, but low 40's is still pretty cold for early December especially compared to the last two winters when it seemed we couldn't buy a frigid day. 

[packbacker]

Not arctic cold, but low 40's is still pretty cold for early December especially compared to the last two winters when it seemed we couldn't buy a frigid day.

Avg low is 32F for Dec, low 40's would be a torch.

[Cold Rain]

Am I reading the last few runs right?

 

Are the models showing a zonal flow after about the 12th - 15th?

 

I know it is a long way out but it seems to me that has been a pretty consistent feature.

 

Hopefully someone can explain to me why I'm wrong (other than the obvious its out in la la land by the 12th - 15th!!!).

 

Thanks! 

 

 

I wouldn't really classify it as true zonal flow.  It's just not highly amped over the US.  Here's the GFS at 384 and at 240 (second image -- I uploaded them in reverse order for some reason).  The panels aren't terribly dissimilar from one another.  They maintain a cold Canada with ridging out in the Pacific.  The storm track is across the middle to southern tier of the country.  Cold is nearby with occasional cold shots from Arctic highs:

[burgertime]

Avg low is 32F for Dec, low 40's would be a torch.

 

I was talking about the highs. Lows are in the 20's. 

[Cold Rain]

And here is the 240 Euro.  It shows more ridging along the west coast than the 240 GFS.  The storm track is still across the southern tier, with a cold Canada.  So again, not a true zonal flow.  Last year, we had zonal flow from across the Pacific with no real ridging or cross-polar flow to bring cold into the continent.  This was in part thanks to a big GOA low, which hasn't been present this winter so far.  Here we almost have an Aleutian low: