Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[DaculaWeather]

NAO should become negative around the 8th... The models are trending more negative as time goes on. May be the break we need.

[Cold Rain]

At least the pattern hasn't been (and doesn't soon appear to be) the wretched debacle it was last year.

[weatherfide]

A healthy west based -nao would be just enough to nudge the cold air into my area and the Pacific could provide the southern stream for something interesting in my neck of the woods, hopefully, after 10 days.

[griteater]

Looking at the GFS Ensemble, the westward movement of the ridge axis in the mid-long range from Alaska to far East Siberia suggests that the western trough would retrograde further west as well.  Lot of cold air across southern Canada and the western U.S., but it will become increasingly more difficult for cold to win out in the SE if that setup holds.  Hard to trust any kind of AO or NAO blocking signals.

[MADDOGG]

There is absolutely no way we get out of the first 10 days of this month not at +3 or +4.

You really love the heat don't yeah.

[metalicwx366]

You really love the heat don't yeah.

No, everyone is focusing on the rainstorm later in the week that no one is seeing these near record or record temps coming up. We are probably going to end the first 10 days at +7-10.

[Cold Rain]

What happened to the +PNA that is allegedly supported by all the warm water in the N. Pacific, which is so different from last year?

[oconeexman]

Looks like we are back to winter in the SE...I guess I'd take a warmer first half of December if it means reloading for Christmas and early January which I believe it will.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we are back to winter in the SE...I guess I'd take a warmer first half of December if it means reloading for Christmas and early January which I believe it will.

 

That's what folks said the last two years.

[SnowNiner]

What happened to the +PNA that is allegedly supported by all the warm water in the N. Pacific, which is so different from last year?

 

Pacific ridge went west, trough and cold went with it.  Simple as that.  Not going to be cold again until we can get it back east to Alaska.  No "seepage", no well placed high is going to serve as a miracle worker, we just need to get the trough back our way.  Atlantic or no. 

[Tacoma]

So another big rain event Friday.  We need to get the cold air back here while we have all these storms and moisture around.  When we finally get the cold back we will probably be dry.  When we do get a storm and some cold air like last time we have to worry about a warm nose.  Whats with that?  I remember growing up in the sixties we had great snowstorms every winter and you never heard of a warm nose.  The timing has to be perfect for us which hardly ever works out anymore.  I'm just ready for a couple of good snowstorms and not have to worry about a warm nose.                        What goes around comes around and I'm ready for the come around back to the sixties and seventies winters.......

[Brick Tamland]

So another big rain event Friday.  We need to get the cold air back here while we have all these storms and moisture around.  When we finally get the cold back we will probably be dry.  When we do get a storm and some cold air like last time we have to worry about a warm nose.  Whats with that?  I remember growing up in the sixties we had great snowstorms every winter and you never heard of a warm nose.  The timing has to be perfect for us which hardly ever works out anymore.  I'm just ready for a couple of good snowstorms and not have to worry about a warm nose.                        What goes around comes around and I'm ready for the come around back to the sixties and seventies winters.......

 

If it's not one thing it's another that prevents us from having a good winter storm. It's been that way for the past two years. No reason to think that will change until we actually see it happen.

[FallsLake]

What happened to the +PNA that is allegedly supported by all the warm water in the N. Pacific, which is so different from last year?

Well there is some good news this morning. The indices look better than the last couple of days:

AO - In the LR is basically in La La land with many runs very positive and many runs very negative. **maybe a little more negative

PNA - Staying negative; and maybe going very negative in the short term(not good). **maybe moving towards neutral in the LR.

NAO - This is the bright spot. Going negative and maybe big time negative.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Cold Rain]

Maybe it's a good thing that the CFS is showing a wall to wall torch for January for most of North America.  Maybe it's a good thing that it's dry as well.  Maybe it's a good thing that weeks 3 and 4 show warm anomalies across the US and the cold eroding out of Canada.  Maybe it's a good thing.  Because it's never right.  But if it is right this time, then maybe that means it's fixed now and we can start using it as a reliable tool.  Either way, a win-win for us.

 

The indecies are basically unchanged from yesterday, with perhaps a few more members taking the AO negative out in time and the NAO appearing more negative.  The PNA is under water until basically the end of the prog, where it goes back to neutral.  The MJO is shown to stay in the COD or run around in Phase 3 for a while.

 

Looking at the operational models, there is no hint of a west-based -NAO.  East-based appears more likely than anything else.  The 0z GFS basically turns the US mild after day 10 or so, with a nice repeating trough in the GOA.  The 6z is much kinder with much colder conditions.  That run, along with the Canadian eh and the Euro imply a winter storm threat in the 180 - 240 time frame.  They generally maintain a SE ridge until about that time frame, at which point they squash it or migrate it out to sea.  Unless we get a +PNA or a stout west-based -NAO, this "threat" will likely end up the way the current one is heading.

 

It appeared earlier that the models kept trying to build a SE ridge, only to mute it as we got closer.  Now that it's finally here, they appear to want to weaken it too early.  Many folks believe that it, along with the -PNA could be stable features for a good portion of the winter.  If so, then I would expect to see long range winter storm threats which trend warmer as we move in.  Hopefully, that won't turn out to be the case.  But right now, the pattern setting up seems to be one that favors that and one that folks like Don and HM have suggested.  Are the prospects for a fun, old-fashioned cold and snowy winter in the SE dwindling or will a better atmospheric configuration set in soon?

[Cold Rain]

Well there is some good news this morning. The indices look better than the last couple of days:

AO - In the LR is basically in La La land with many runs very positive and many runs very negative. **maybe a little more negative

PNA - Staying negative; and maybe going very negative in the short term(not good). **maybe moving towards neutral in the LR.

NAO - This is the bright spot. Going negative and maybe big time negative.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Hopefully, that is true and will retrograde into a west-based version.

[Cold Rain]

Pacific ridge went west, trough and cold went with it.  Simple as that.  Not going to be cold again until we can get it back east to Alaska.  No "seepage", no well placed high is going to serve as a miracle worker, we just need to get the trough back our way.  Atlantic or no. 

 

Well, let's get that bad boy back east again.  Hopefully, it's just a break and not something with more persistence.

[Stovepipe]

Maybe it's a good thing that the CFS is showing a wall to wall torch for January for most of North America.  Maybe it's a good thing that it's dry as well.  Maybe it's a good thing that weeks 3 and 4 show warm anomalies across the US and the cold eroding out of Canada.  Maybe it's a good thing.  Because it's never right.  But if it is right this time, then maybe that means it's fixed now and we can start using it as a reliable tool.  Either way, a win-win for us.

 

The indecies are basically unchanged from yesterday, with perhaps a few more members taking the AO negative out in time and the NAO appearing more negative.  The PNA is under water until basically the end of the prog, where it goes back to neutral.  The MJO is shown to stay in the COD or run around in Phase 3 for a while.

 

Looking at the operational models, there is no hint of a west-based -NAO.  East-based appears more likely than anything else.  The 0z GFS basically turns the US mild after day 10 or so, with a nice repeating trough in the GOA.  The 6z is much kinder with much colder conditions.  That run, along with the Canadian eh and the Euro imply a winter storm threat in the 180 - 240 time frame.  They generally maintain a SE ridge until about that time frame, at which point they squash it or migrate it out to sea.  Unless we get a +PNA or a stout west-based -NAO, this "threat" will likely end up the way the current one is heading.

 

It appeared earlier that the models kept trying to build a SE ridge, only to mute it as we got closer.  Now that it's finally here, they appear to want to weaken it too early.  Many folks believe that it, along with the -PNA could be stable features for a good portion of the winter.  If so, then I would expect to see long range winter storm threats which trend warmer as we move in.  Hopefully, that won't turn out to be the case.  But right now, the pattern setting up seems to be one that favors that and one that folks like Don and HM have suggested.  Are the prospects for a fun, old-fashioned cold and snowy winter in the SE dwindling or will a better atmospheric configuration set in soon?

 

I always look forward to your summaries, thank you.

 

[NGA WINTER]

HM says -NAO cold stormy by mid-month on east coast.

[SnowNiner]

Maybe it's a good thing that the CFS is showing a wall to wall torch for January for most of North America.  Maybe it's a good thing that it's dry as well.  Maybe it's a good thing that weeks 3 and 4 show warm anomalies across the US and the cold eroding out of Canada.  Maybe it's a good thing.  Because it's never right.  But if it is right this time, then maybe that means it's fixed now and we can start using it as a reliable tool.  Either way, a win-win for us.

 

The indecies are basically unchanged from yesterday, with perhaps a few more members taking the AO negative out in time and the NAO appearing more negative.  The PNA is under water until basically the end of the prog, where it goes back to neutral.  The MJO is shown to stay in the COD or run around in Phase 3 for a while.

 

Looking at the operational models, there is no hint of a west-based -NAO.  East-based appears more likely than anything else.  The 0z GFS basically turns the US mild after day 10 or so, with a nice repeating trough in the GOA.  The 6z is much kinder with much colder conditions.  That run, along with the Canadian eh and the Euro imply a winter storm threat in the 180 - 240 time frame.  They generally maintain a SE ridge until about that time frame, at which point they squash it or migrate it out to sea.  Unless we get a +PNA or a stout west-based -NAO, this "threat" will likely end up the way the current one is heading.

 

It appeared earlier that the models kept trying to build a SE ridge, only to mute it as we got closer.  Now that it's finally here, they appear to want to weaken it too early.  Many folks believe that it, along with the -PNA could be stable features for a good portion of the winter.  If so, then I would expect to see long range winter storm threats which trend warmer as we move in.  Hopefully, that won't turn out to be the case.  But right now, the pattern setting up seems to be one that favors that and one that folks like Don and HM have suggested.  Are the prospects for a fun, old-fashioned cold and snowy winter in the SE dwindling or will a better atmospheric configuration set in soon?

 

Yeah, great summary!!

 

Right now, I still think the winter outlook looks okay.  December is probably ok too.  The -EPO is there, the ridge is there, it's just displaced.  It moved west, it can slide and move back east.  I think we'll continue to hit cold here and there routinely based on it sliding back and forth.  It's not like there's a vortex in Alaska like the last two years, so that's good. 

 

I keep telling myself that December is not the Southeast's month as well and truly, I'm waiting for January and February for something.  I'm still holding out for my Miller A in mid January with either a nice 50/50 low or blocking keeping it in the FL panhandle.  Hmmmm, I make up my own fantasy storms in my mind. 

[DaculaWeather]

It seems the CPC forecast are always wrong.

[franklin NCwx]

Scandinavian ridge is shown to retrograde on the ruro a nd gefs ensembles

[tnweathernut]

Looking at the ensembles, I am more encouraged than discouraged.  I am hoping we can get the Pacific to cooperate with the Atlantic somewhere down the road in December.

 

Hopefully I am a voice of reason when I say, "it's only December 3rd" - and we have already had threats to follow.  Kind of neat when you think about it. 

 

I can't remember ANY wall to wall cold and snowy winters in my lifetime and that's because we live in the south.  All it takes is a good two-three week stretch or a couple of well timed storms and most of this board would be happy.

[GaWx]

At hour 174, the 12Z gfs looks much different from earlier runs. Looks colder but drier for the 12/11-12 period. The two cold, dry fans here should be excited.

[burgertime]

@177 on the 12z GFS big time cold is spilling in to the US with the SE Ridge taking a big hit. 

[burgertime]

At hour 174, the 12Z gfs looks much different from earlier runs. Looks colder but drier for the 12/11-12 period. The two cold, dry fans here should be excited.

 

Yep this just screams dry and cold...and it looks really cold. 

[GaWx]

@177 on the 12z GFS big time cold is spilling in to the US with the SE Ridge taking a big hit. 

My guess is that the 12Z gfs has swung too far the other way with this pretty extreme scenario. Fwiw, it has teen lows at RDU and ATL on 12/11 and 12/12. Very cold and dry. In this case, no SE ridge may be hurting since no resistance/battle/overrunning.

[burgertime]

My guess is that the 12Z gfs has swung too far the other way wit this pretty extreme scenario. Fwiw, it has teen lows at RDU and ATL on 12/11 an 12/12. Very cold and dry. In this case, no SE ridge may be hurting since no resistance/battle/overrunning.

 

Gets all funky after it looses resolution so I tend to agree. 

[GaWx]

Gets all funky after it looses resolution so I tend to agree. 

 

In all fairness though, it looks much different by hour 120 or so with more upper ridging west coast of Canada and just off W coast of US. So, later cold a natural set up by this change. But with such a sudden change, I'm going to look to see if it swings back somewhat on the next run. This is a good illustration of how flimsy maps after about day 7 are often low confidence.

 

 This is also good example of how much colder models keep getting as get closer to time period. Cold seems to want to overperform vs,. earlier forecasts!

[wxgeek]

Where are you guys getting your FGS modeling from?  I have been getting mine from the Noaa  ncep site, but they are painfully slow.

[GaWx]

Where are you guys getting your FGS modeling from?  I have been getting mine from the Noaa  ncep site, but they are painfully slow.

 A paid source (private co.). Highlight of entire 16 days: 12/10 late to early 12/12 with extreme cold in SE US.