CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 I don't really understand the mindset of holding off on a thread, to be honest. What difference does it make? Most of the discussion in this thread is talking about a specific storm potential, not the overall December pattern discussion, so it would make sense to create a new thread, IMO. I don't really care too much, though, so whatever is fine. I guess there's the new thread jinx, but I don't think many of us really believe in that. We have a big subforum for a reason. I remember the era of the superthreads back when this was EasternWx, but why not use the subforum as it was intended? I recommend that we start a new thread also...... I used up all my CAD mojo in this thread. So, I think the Georgia sleet-man should do the honors but I will start it if that's what you guys want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I recommend that we start a new thread also...... I used up all my CAD mojo in this thread. So, I think the Georgia sleet-man should do the honors but I will start it if that's what you guys want. I agree with this If anyone else feels up to it.....pull the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I vote Cold Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 My gut feeling says if a Ga poster starts it, I like my chances here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If we are using that logic, let pcbjr. lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 I agree with this If anyone else feels up to it.....pull the trigger Alright dsaur you're up.......Paging the sleet-man. Bring this one home for us. Meanwhile we wait for the 0z suite. Any guesses as to what it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If we are using that logic, let pcbjr. lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk too far south, suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Do it, do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Alright dsaur you're up.......Paging the sleet-man. Bring this one home for us. Meanwhile we wait for the 0z suite. Any guesses as to what it shows?a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If we are using that logic, let pcbjr. lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalktoo far south, suppression. Sadly, there isn't a single percent in me that thinks we have to worry about suppression. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Sadly, there isn't a single percent in me that thinks we have to worry about suppression. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Me neither. Not in early December. Not now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Sadly, there isn't a single percent in me that thinks we have to worry about suppression. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Me neither. Not in early December. Not now With that huge ridge OFF the west coast and a complete lack of blocking,we will have to worry about a more northerly track, even with small impulses. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If we are using that logic, let pcbjr. lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I would not be so presumptuous. Just saying .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 You are correct. Why would the Euro OP be so different from the ensembles? TW I'd say that's not really unusual at that time range (8-10 days) when considering that the op is one member compared to the average of 51 members with the ensemble mean. The ensemble mean had a trough in the west. The op was just more pronounced compared to the mean with digging it into the SW, and as a consequence, had a stronger ridge along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The real question here ........is the euro displaying its bias in its stubbornness for holding the southwest trough back?? Time will tell. The implications are HUGE. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 My gut feeling says if a Ga poster starts it, I like my chances here I agree with Cary Wx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I may have missed it but the end of the Euro run at 12z was pushing cold air east and it's some brutal cold air in the midwest for early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I may have missed it but the end of the Euro run at 12z was pushing cold air east and it's some brutal cold air in the midwest for early Dec. Nope you are right. Looks very cold an pushing east as you said. Robert had talked about another blast of arctic air behind the system for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 00z Euro continued the push of cold air into the SE and has it arriving @228....in my opinion given the CAD setup next weekend and cold air coming on it's heels that 240 - 260 hour range is something we should watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro ensembles continue to build a ridge over Greenland and now towards the Davis strait. I think this is three runs in a row now maybe four. 0z gefs do this as well but not as aggressive. They both want to drop another trough in the pac nw and western Canada so we should expect another relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 AO is headed back down, the NAO is right at zero and headed down, and the GEFS has the MJO in a weak Phase 2. The trends are good! :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconnections_graphs.php http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like an active pattern is setting up across the United States. An arctic air mass with the potential for ice stretching across the middle of the country before spreading to the east coast. Let's hope that the NAO and AO continue to trend towards a negative phase. I am ready for wintry weather; however, I will pass on the ice. Right now, the pattern is conductive for these arctic air masses to continue to dive south. All we need is a strong area of low pressure to bomb out on the east coast, and we might finally get a good winter storm in the area. Let's just wait till after December 14, because that is graduation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 No real torch in the LR still. After a brief warm-up this week, temps look to drop back to normal or below again. The AO looks to continue to its fall toward neutral with most memebers taking it back up again. There is spread, however, with a few taking it negative. The NAO generally looks to rise slightly positive and then trend back toward neutral and negative thereafter (looking at the LR Euro and GFS, ridging starts to show up in the NAO domain, but no Greenland block or strong west-based NAO appears yet). The PNA is shown to remain in negative territory for the foreseeable future, with a trend back toward neutral toward the end of the period. The MJO continues to be incoherrent with several models keeping it a non-factor in the COD, while others generally emerge it in Phase 2 or Phase 3 for a short time. The CFS shows above normal precip weeks 1 and 2 with below normal values weeks 3 and 4. Regarding temps, it shows weeks 1 and 2 generally below normal, week 3 barely above normal, and week 4 is a complete torch across the US. Canada remains in the icebox for the whole period. For January, it shows most of the nation dry and above normal, with the only real exception of normal/below temps being in the SE. I'm sure that will change significantly though, many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Something tells me the LR GFS is on crack today.Might be the sub freezing temps going almost to central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Something tells me the LR GFS is on crack today.Might be the sub freezing temps going almost to central America. Along with yet another massive overrunning winter storm around 300 hours. Ok, suuuurrrre. At least it pops a little bit of a +PNA for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There is absolutely no way we get out of the first 10 days of this month not at +3 or +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 After looking at the Euro through 196, we all may hate the SE ridge before this year is over. There is blocking in the Aleutians with not much hint of a -NAO forming, with bitterly cold air in the northern plains, with pieces breaking off and trying to make it in to the northeast. At 216, SE ridge holding on, and the Euro is trying to dump more cold into the southwest. Much of the country is below normal, but the SE ridge is being very stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Trough dumps out west, strengthens SE ridge, with a -NAO developing at day 10 on the 12z Euro. Hoping we can get a Pacific reset soon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 After looking at the Euro through 196, we all may hate the SE ridge before this year is over. There is blocking in the Aleutians with not much hint of a -NAO forming, with bitterly cold air in the northern plains, with pieces breaking off and trying to make it in to the northeast. At 216, SE ridge holding on, and the Euro is trying to dump more cold into the southwest. Much of the country is below normal, but the SE ridge is being very stubborn. 216 and 240 have strong high pressure building in across the northern tier and a general migration of the SE ridge out to sea. By 240, it looks like a -NAO (east-based) building in. Ridging continues over AK and the Aleutians with a continued general -PNA pattern. Looks like another fantasy winter storm overrunning event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I believe the GFS had a fantasy overrunning event in this timeframe, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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