tarheelwx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I can't think of a time in the past 5 years that the models have locked on to such a solution for major CAD and zr. This has the best potential for a major ice storm that we have seen in well over 5 years. I'll be firing up the generator and making sure my gas cans are full in the next couple of days. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I can't think of a time in the past 5 years that the models have locked on to such a solution for major CAD and zr. This has the best potential for a major ice storm that we have seen in well over 5 years. I'll be firing up the generator and making sure my gas cans are full in the next couple of days. TW You guys definitely have to keep an eye on this. If anything is showing up even just a bit for as far South as the Midlands.. there is a real threat that could likely materialize up in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like TN and VA are the big winners re: precip amounts for the first CAD event on the 18z GFS. We don't get CAD on this side of the mountain. I have had a little more time to look at things and the GFS ensembles from 12z look a lot like the Euro, meaning wintry stuff further north and west, except CAD areas east of here. I am just speaking for late next weekend. warm 850s into east TN. But is the idea right??? Who knows? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Maybe you should consider MOVING. Then you will have nothing to complain about.... Yeah, the mid- Atlantic area would welcome him with open arms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I am tired of being on the fringe. Too many ifs and maybes. But sometimes Raleigh can be CAD central. Dew point temps at hour 62, on 18z GFS have Raleigh right in the middle of the push of colder/dryer air from Virginia. Somewhere between 25 & 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 This event looks different from the last "event". We had prolong dry/cold air for days to cool the surface with extremely low dps. This helped the Triad see a little glazing. Now it looks wet and going over to freezing rain after the surface is exposed to 60-70 degree weather...several days of it. In fact, most on the board do not see below freezing temps after tonight until the event actually occurs. Raleigh doesn't see freezing temps period until the event. Not a whole lot to discuss. CAD strength to fluctuate for several days on the euro/gfs. May not know the true extent until the NAM gets into range. Likewise, I expect most of us to be on the fringe of Rain/Freezing Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 We don't get CAD on this side of the mountain. I have had a little more time to look at things and the GFS ensembles from 12z look a lot like the Euro, meaning wintry stuff further north and west, except CAD areas east of here. I am just speaking for late next weekend. warm 850s into east TN. But is the idea right??? Who knows? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Right...I was just labeling the event The Cad Event, since there were multiple precip events on the GFS. What I meant to say was that parts of TN up through VA looked like the best precip amounts for the event. I didn't say it very well, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 We don't get CAD on this side of the mountain. I have had a little more time to look at things and the GFS ensembles from 12z look a lot like the Euro, meaning wintry stuff further north and west, except CAD areas east of here. I am just speaking for late next weekend. warm 850s into east TN. But is the idea right??? Who knows? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Right...I was just labeling the event The Cad Event, since there were multiple precip events on the GFS. What I meant to say was that parts of TN up through VA looked like the best precip amounts for the event. I didn't say it very well, though. I figured it was something like that. lol..... Precip amounts on the GFS at hour 180, for the previous 72 hours show a 4 inch qpf bullseye in TN. Pretty crazy amounts being shown. It's pretty wet for a good part off NC too. I hope the cold press is sufficient to get more of the board than currently shown. I really think the CAD being shown is the first "real deal" in quite some time for you guys....... Old school if you will. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 We don't get CAD on this side of the mountain. I have had a little more time to look at things and the GFS ensembles from 12z look a lot like the Euro, meaning wintry stuff further north and west, except CAD areas east of here. I am just speaking for late next weekend. warm 850s into east TN. But is the idea right??? Who knows? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You are correct. You don't have cold air damming on that side of the Apps. However, you can still get low-level cold air bleeding down in over-running events, if the correct pattern sets up. Will it happen this time? Too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Right...I was just labeling the event The Cad Event, since there were multiple precip events on the GFS. What I meant to say was that parts of TN up through VA looked like the best precip amounts for the event. I didn't say it very well, though. I am w/ tnwxnut...CAD is not an E TN deal. We do get ice events once in a blue moon. Here, the cold air has to be trapped in the valley first and then overrunning occurs. It almost never bleeds in...I doubt this event goes ice on the first wave for E TN. Maybe the second potential event. However, if the arctic boundary pushes further south than modeled(as some mets have guessed it might) it could happen. A lot is still on the table in terms of sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 You are correct. You don't have cold air damming on that side of the Apps. However, you can still get low-level cold air bleeding down in over-running events, if the correct pattern sets up. Will it happen this time? Too early to tell. We usually get warm air bleeding UP to be fair. lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Morristown is warning of bad flooding this weekend as a possibility. I do think E TN gets nailed with heavy rain. I noticed TVA pumping a ton of water this past weekend. They have top notch hydrologists and mets...when you see them clearing water it is best to take note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Morristown is warning of bad flooding this weekend as a possibility. I do think E TN gets nailed with heavy rain. I noticed TVA pumping a ton of water this past weekend. They have top notch hydrologists and mets...when you see them clearing water it is best to take note. I agree. I also see neighboring NWS Blacksburg usually do the best with winter weather east of the mountains. I often look to them over GSP. Below is from Blacksburg. The European model (ecmwf)/GFS are all over the place with regards to the strength and the placement of a potential Arctic high pressure late weekend. This has huge implications on if or how much precipitation will be thrown back into a cold wedged airmass over our region...which could lead to rain...snow...ice...or all three Sunday night into Monday. Still many days to watch the pattern evolution over the next week and much too early for any specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 RAH not saying much about precip types but does acknowledge the CAD next weekend: FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONGCOLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHTAND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAINTHIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. EXPECT ANAFRONTAL PRECIP ALONG AND BEHINDTHE COLD FRONT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES/RAIN AND FALLING TEMPS FOR MANYHOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAYSATURDAY. TEMPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...ANDAT THIS TIME EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NW TONEAR 60F FAR SE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SAT VERY NEAR LOWS SATMORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION AND EVAP COOLING ASSOC/WANAFRONTAL PRECIP RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY/AFTERNOON.ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL LARGELY END BY SAT EVENING...THOUGH PRECIPCHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVELSOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ATOP A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXISEXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE(1040-1045 MB) CENTERED IN NEW ENGLAND. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I agree. I also see neighboring NWS Blacksburg usually do the best with winter weather east of the mountains. I often look to them over GSP. Below is from Blacksburg. The European model (ecmwf)/GFS are all over the place with regards to the strength and the placement of a potential Arctic high pressure late weekend. This has huge implications on if or how much precipitation will be thrown back into a cold wedged airmass over our region...which could lead to rain...snow...ice...or all three Sunday night into Monday. Still many days to watch the pattern evolution over the next week and much too early for any specifics. Applies to almost all people in the upper south. Where that arctic boundary sets up shop is the key. Until we know that...just no way to know precip types. The models look to have 2-3 waves rolling up the boundary. The first one is all rain for TN. The second/third waves are the ones I am watching. We get wintry weather from these types of set-ups...but usually with some cold air already in place and a reinforcing shot comes in. Like I said, lots of options west of the Apps on the table...Blacksburg's disco would work on this side of the Apps as well. If that cold air banks up against the west faces of the Apps, that is when we get ice...but is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro ensembles continue to build heights over Greenland starting day 11. By the end of the run its trying to hook up with the epo ridge to turn the ao negative. Hopefully its on to something and not fantasy. It would be nice to see the nao and ao go negative mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Folks, Good luck with what you get (if ice is what you want). Just puleeze send me some chilly air!!!!! In all seriousness, this looks like it might be big time - so watch what you wish for ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We're basically within a week now, so I'm not sure we're really talking fantasy anymore. Anyone want to start up a thread so that the longer-range pattern disco doesn't get lost among the discussion about the storm system next weekend? Perhaps it's still too early, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I figured it was something like that. lol..... Precip amounts on the GFS at hour 180, for the previous 72 hours show a 4 inch qpf bullseye in TN. Pretty crazy amounts being shown. It's pretty wet for a good part off NC too. I hope the cold press is sufficient to get more of the board than currently shown. I really think the CAD being shown is the first "real deal" in quite some time for you guys....... Old school if you will. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep, this definitely has an "old school" feel to it. The first marker for any real non-token winter storm threat for a large part of the area is a strong, favorably located high pressure. This, we appear to have....step 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Have to go back about 3 years since we've seen hp and cold air like the models are showing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yep, this definitely has an "old school" feel to it. The first marker for any real non-token winter storm threat for a large part of the area is a strong, favorably located high pressure. This, we appear to have....step 1. I agree.. The models have presented a possibility of what might happen and the signal appears to be pretty strong. However, over-running events are hard to nail down inside 48 hours much less a week away..... Even at this range, I believe that an over-running event will occur and we will get some precip. As to how the cold air will get involved is pure speculation at this point but it is a good event for us to track. What's more important is the model accuracy leading up to this event. If we do get a significant winter event out of this pattern, The GFS will have led the way in the LR and should be favored during the remainder of winter with regard to similar cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 To be fair, the GFS appears to have taken pretty big steps toward the euro today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think the GFS has had a pretty similar solution for several days now. Sure there have been some changes, but still amazingly consistent from this far out. The Euro operational made a dramatic shift yesterday from torch early next week to a solution similar to the gfs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah good point, but the ensembles didn't really agree if I remember correct. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Can we start a thread for this upcoming event: Dec 8-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Can we start a thread for this upcoming event: Dec 8-10? Think it would be wise to wait a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Can we start a thread for this upcoming event: Dec 8-10? The bullseye region to our north doesn't have a thread yet. If you started one all we would really be doing is monitoring 1-2 degree fluctuations in the cad for nearly a week for every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I don't really understand the mindset of holding off on a thread, to be honest. What difference does it make? Most of the discussion in this thread is talking about a specific storm potential, not the overall December pattern discussion, so it would make sense to create a new thread, IMO. I don't really care too much, though, so whatever is fine. I guess there's the new thread jinx, but I don't think many of us really believe in that. We have a big subforum for a reason. I remember the era of the superthreads back when this was EasternWx and we didn't have regional subforums, but why not use the subforum as it was intended? That's all I will say before this gets too off-topic, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah good point, but the ensembles didn't really agree if I remember correct. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Correct.... the Euro has biases, we all know that, but we can see through the smoke most of the time. Earlier, the Euro was showing an amped up Lakes cutter with this potential. That was its' bias showing and most of us could recognize it. The Euro likes to bomb out and phase storms too easily. This is the one thing everyone has to remember as we head deeper into the cold season. A lot of us were fooled by the Euro earlier this Fall when it showed a wrapped up snowstorm in the medium range. I was hoping that the up-grade had gotten rid of this but once again it proved to be the same old Euro. as I said in an earlier post, I am more concerned with model accuracy that anything. Let's sit back, discuss the event, and watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah good point, but the ensembles didn't really agree if I remember correct. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You are correct. Why would the Euro OP be so different from the ensembles? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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