NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Folks, The 0Z Good Doctor is giving a light icy present to WNC on 12/8-9. Overall, this is a good bit colder run vs. the 12Z. The EURO was completely clueless. Mild with sunshine to ice now. Thus far, the GFS is doing amazing. UKMET also shows something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 6z has the wedge and precip but doesn't look cold enough outside of VA with my untrained eye. But neither has the last 4 sets of 6z runs from the GFS. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 So far , the pattern change underway to set the stage for the heart of winter is playing right into the hands of Accuweather Paul Pastelock's winter forecast released back in October on their public web site. It is not a pattern at all that I and other winter outdoor sportsmen like at all , but is one that needs to be closely watched. I have a high degree of concern that these are about to verify with the winter pattern flip. We may be in denial when we initially dismiss it as a relaxing pattern. And we also now get this from CPC to wreck havoc with December snow skiing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like Virginia is the bullseye on this run This as we know will change eight or nine times for the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Feeling the vibe tonight that something significant may be going down around the 10th of December for TN, NC, VA... Plenty of -20 850's in the Lakes Region with a 1036mb surface high moving east...all while we have a continued WSW flow at 500mb. Day 8 850's.gif Day 8 Surface.gif that high pressure is in a great location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Euro and gfs ensembles both build a ridge over northern Greenland towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Euro and gfs ensembles both build a ridge over northern Greenland towards the end of the run. The Euro finally looked pretty cold at Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 December 18 - 22, 1989, followed by sticking snow way down here comes to mind ..... Exactly, what happened in ILM that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandonjva Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Hope this doesn't happen!! Canadian brings extremely pos nao :http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/407020172096991232/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 DT showed the 00z euro for 8pm on the 8th with a major wedge and 1041 hp over PA! That would be classic. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Hope this doesn't happen!! Canadian brings extremely pos nao :http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/407020172096991232/photo/1 This mornings indicies look pretty good as they look to bring the NAO a little further negative. I didn't know we stated watching the Canadian model for the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 This mornings indicies look pretty good as they look to bring the NAO a little further negative. I didn't know we stated watching the Canadian model for the teleconnections. No! Don't ever do that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Hope this doesn't happen!! Canadian brings extremely pos nao :http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/407020172096991232/photo/1 The CPC indices this morning are not as bad but also indicate a (NAO) positive look in the short term. Good news there is a wide spread in the LR for either positive or negative. The PNA stays negative (not one run in positive territory--not good). The AO looks to fall towards neutral in the short term but jump back up in the LR. We need to get at least two of the indices on our side. I don't see that happing right now. I would say the GFS, or Euro, cold look has to be considered suspect (more than normal) at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 No! Don't ever do that! I agree. I almost think we shouldn't look at any indices forecast runs. I do post them a lot but that is more from boredom than taking them real seriously. As Brick would say, they change from day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Cold air invading the western US for sure. I love this graphic from the Billings MT office: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Well, the first week of December does not look very wintry, In fact, it looks more fall or early spring. Hope the warmup does not last long and is not an indication of a warm winter. I do see the good stuff is 10 days or more away. I'm sure it'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 This 10 day snow cover map from the euro shows the general concern for those east of the apps, and general excitement for those west of the apps. (Especially west and middle TN). Per JB's twitter feed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GFS looking really CADish at 168 hours on. There would be some problems with ice in the typical areas. Edit: 850s get close to Va/NC boarder but then push back up to northern Va. Definitely a warmer look and maybe more realistic. But it still shows a CAD signature which is good this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GFS looking really CADish at 168 hours on. There would be some problems with ice in the typical areas. I was just about to post the same thing for you guys over there. CAD signal getting stronger as we get closer (granted its still 7+ days away) and a very consistent portrayal of an overrunning event of some kind. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yes, the 12z gfs still suggests some zr for mainly W NC for 12/8. On the other hand, the 0z, 6z and 12z gfs runs have totally abandoned the major snows shown for 12/8 on yesterday's 12z and 18z runs for mainly E NC and S VA. They actually show virtually no snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yes, the 12z gfs still suggests some zr for mainly W NC for 12/8. On the other hand, the 0z, 6z and 12z gfs runs have totally abandoned the major snows shown for 12/8 on yesterday's 12z and 18z runs for mainly E NC and S VA. They actually show virtually no snow now. I'm really in two camps of thinking right now: 1) The models are not handling the low level cold well and there will be more undercutting than is currently being shown. This would actually give many the snow shown on yesterday's runs. **this does have some merits especially if the cold air source is very cold. 2) The models are showing the cold being able to cross the mountains and as time proceeds the models will push the cold penetration back to west of the Apps. **this is also very possible, and I think should be considered the probably outcome until we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I'm really in two camps of thinking right now: 1) The models are not handling the low level cold well and there will be more undercutting than is currently being shown. This would actually give many the snow shown on yesterday's runs. **this does have some merits especially if the cold air source is very cold. 2) The models are showing the cold being able to cross the mountains and as time proceeds the models will push the cold penetration back to west of the Apps. **this is also very possible, and I think should be considered the probably outcome until we get closer to the event. Not in today's model runs and maybe not tomorrow but by Tuesday (inside 120 hours) we should begin to know what role the cold air will play in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I'm really in two camps of thinking right now: 1) The models are not handling the low level cold well and there will be more undercutting than is currently being shown. This would actually give many the snow shown on yesterday's runs. **this does have some merits especially if the cold air source is very cold. 2) The models are showing the cold being able to cross the mountains and as time proceeds the models will push the cold penetration back to west of the Apps. **this is also very possible, and I think should be considered the probably outcome until we get closer to the event. I've been at church, so I haven't seen the 12z yet, but if the High is favorably located, then Option 1 is more likely. However, if it's back over Montana, then Option 2 is probably the best bet, which is a lot like my Option 1 from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 This 10 day snow cover map from the euro shows the general concern for those east of the apps, and general excitement for those west of the apps. (Especially west and middle TN). Per JB's twitter feed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk This may cause a riot from 'Nooga to Knox with that super valley screw zone showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I just got in and looked at 12z GFS and it couldn't be any more clearly showing a significant ice storm threat. High pressure is favorably located/building in during the majority of the event, and wedging is clearly indicated. If that general synoptic setup remains as we close in, you will likely see forecast temps come down. The source region is very cold. I'd give this about an alert level of about a 6 out of 10 at this point, given recent trends. If the Euro comes on board consistently, I'll be even more convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I just got in and looked at 12z GFS and it couldn't be any more clearly showing a significant ice storm threat. High pressure is favorably located/building in during the majority of the event, and wedging is clearly indicated. If that general synoptic setup remains as we close in, you will likely see forecast temps come down. The source region is very cold. I'd give this about an alert level of about a 6 out of 10 at this point, given recent trends. If the Euro comes on board consistently, I'll be even more convinced. The cads are what I'm focusing on. If the plethora of cads Goofy is, and has been showing, and the cads I've actually been seeing continue, then this has the makings for a cad winter, and I'll finally get the dead wood out of the trees, and get to try out my generator I'd expect a visit from the zmonster come Jan., if not sooner. This next assault needs to be further south with the moisture generators, for me, at any rate, and I have mixed feelings about that. Unfortunately, I have to dance with the zmonster to get a chance for pellets. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The cads are what I'm focusing on. If the plethora of cads Goofy is, and has been showing, and the cads I've actually been seeing continue, then this has the makings for a cad winter, and I'll finally get the dead wood out of the trees, and get to try out my generator I'd expect a visit from the zmonster come Jan., if not sooner. This next assault needs to be further south with the moisture generators, for me, at any rate, and I have mixed feelings about that. Unfortunately, I have to dance with the zmonster to get a chance for pellets. T This very well could be a year of CADs. Less blocking but colder air masses traversing to the north can cause havoc on "expected weather". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Here is the immutable mystery, and unpredictable power of the Cad. A week ago I was remarking to myself how dry the future looked on Meteostar. Now that then is now, I'm looking at rain everyday for the 10 day forecast. Models are great, but magic 8 balls work around as well, out in future land. Best not invest too much past 3 days, lol. I'll put out a mug, in case it rains. but I won't be planning a water drinking party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I hear the Euro looks good with strong hp over se Canada/Northeast next Sunday. Then by looking on the cheap freebie maps, after a short warmup on Tuesday, more major cold is ready to move in next Wednesday. Anybody with good maps got more details for the southeast? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Great write up by Robert (WxSouth) on FB Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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