FLweather Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't trust nothing the GFS shows until the Euro jumps on board. That's just me. But really any snow storm euro has past 7 days never verifies in the se either!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 He actually has December above normal parts of the SE, western half on NC normal.. only place in the lower 48 except a little slither in California.lol but has big time cold in the SE January/February? I watched his Saturday Summary today and he only showed his December forecast. But you're saying he has Jan and Feb below normal for us? That would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't trust nothing the GFS shows until the Euro jumps on board. That's just me. But really any snow storm euro has past 7 days never verifies in the se either!!! Yeah, we've already seen a couple of snowstorms and -NAOs on the Euro in the D+7 time frame that didn't verify. Once we get some general agreement inside 5 days, we'll probably all feel better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 yeah that's what I thought, after looking back what I wrote? lol It didn't come out exactly the way I was thinking.... Bottom line is I trust the Euro over GFS any day of the week. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I watched his Saturday Summary today and he only showed his December forecast. But you're saying he has Jan and Feb below normal for us? That would be nice! yes, February more so than January. But both below normal. snowfall near normal Edit: went and looked back to make sure I was telling you right, and sure enough I was off a little... He has January normal February below.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The 12z gfs has snow for all of nc, s va and N sc on 12/8. It has major (4"+) for the E half of NC with maxes in the 6-8 range! Ga/Tn and west is largely shutout. Then it looks like light snow changing to ip/zr to rain for WNC 12/10. NC the big winner! Fwiw, still largely entertainment, the 18z gfs clown map that I get has 1"+ of snow for all of NC, S VA, all but S SC, and much of the NE 1/2 of GA falling mainly on 12/8 but into early 12/9 along the NC coast. The E 1/2 of NC into SE VA is the big winner on the 18z gfs with pretty historic amounts of 8-14". The 12-14" amounts are in far NE NC and far SE VA. This is consistent with the 12Z gfs in terms of timing and placement but is more widespread and intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 yes, February more so than January. But both below normal. snowfall near normal Edit: went and looked back to make sure I was telling you right, and sure enough I was off a little... He has January normal February below.... Good deal. Thanks man. Either way, I believe we'll have several legitimate opportunities for fun this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yeah, I was just talking about his overall December forecast. The Euro is statistically better by a little bit, but both models have their biases and their strengths and weaknesses based on certain patterns. I would feel better with it on board. Maybe it'll get there.... I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 For some fun, go back and read the first page of the November discussion. Pretty funny. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Per Twister Weather 18Z GFS Snowfall at hour 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Per Twister Weather 18Z GFS Snowfall at hour 216 Probable verification per jburns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 From DT. Not sure how anyone can trust the operational Euro. The GFS and GFS Ensembles join the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Day 10 Euro op, will be the correct outcome, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Day 10 Euro op, will be the correct outcome, IMO Don't think so...... I could be wrong, but it looks too amped to me. Euro has a bias in that range. It really likes to over-amplify and phase systems. Never fear, it will come back to reality in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Day 10 Euro op, will be the correct outcome, IMOYeah that's what I think as well. The -PNA and EPO favor what the Day 10 Euro op shows anyway with very cold temps in the West. DT and others just likes whatever models shows cold in the East.CPC likes what the Euro shows as well. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The Euro OP doesn't even have support from its own ensembles. Hard to take seriously at this point, IMO. GFS, GFS Ensembles, and Euro Ensembles agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 hr171 wintry mix extends from Texas to Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Pretty crazy early December air mass covering most of the USA for next weekend. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 turns cold enough at hr 204 for winter weather, VA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 That was a pretty cold run of the GFS. Looks like the cold is moving up nicely on the models. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 That was a pretty cold run of the GFS. Looks like the cold is moving up nicely on the models. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep nice to see the upper mid west stay so cold to help build up snowpack in that region to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think we will have a defined winter threat for someone in the southeast to track in the next 3 days or so. Probably an overrunning type deal for late weekend or early the following week. Perhaps as many as 2-3 opportunities while the cold is in place. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like Virginia is the bullseye on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like Virginia is the bullseye on this run Need to watch this closely. Esp. the northern half of NC. Already shows it cold enough for some mixed accumulation...any trend colder would be huge. I really like this active pattern even if Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee walk out with more winter weather than NC. Also, the GFS has a 80 degree temp swing in Denver next week according to Ryan Maue. inb4 Brick comes in jealous of Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Feeling the vibe tonight that something significant may be going down around the 10th of December for TN, NC, VA... Plenty of -20 850's in the Lakes Region with a 1036mb surface high moving east...all while we have a continued WSW flow at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think we will have a defined winter threat for someone in the southeast to track in the next 3 days or so. Probably an overrunning type deal for late weekend or early the following week. Perhaps as many as 2-3 opportunities while the cold is in place. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep it's a given since the South-East includes west or east of the Apps. The CPC has a developing drought from VA to FL, think that may bust given the active subtropical jetstream for most of December. I wonder tho if they might be predicting it to break down for Jan/Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yep it's a given since the South-East includes west or east of the Apps. The CPC has a developing drought from VA to FL, think that may bust given the active subtropical jetstream for most of December. I wonder tho if they might be predicting it to break down for Jan/Feb.... The drought was/is creeping back into the picture from back in Sept- Nov. Last weeks widespread 1-4 inch rains, were the first good rain producer in about 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Drove over lake Hartwell last week, and it looks like its down atleast 5 or 6 feet from the summers full pool+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Folks, The 0Z Good Doctor is giving a light icy present to WNC on 12/8-9. Overall, this is a good bit colder run vs. the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 And another storm mid month out in fantasy land the week before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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