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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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Are only hope it seems are two options.

1) a storm develops in the short range

2) as the polar vortex leaves, we get a decent over running event.

Or

3) you jump in the car and drive to Portsmouth nh (like I am doing tonight / Saturday am) and arrive during what could be 6"+ (if the latest gfs/nam are on to something)!!!!!

I'll bring some back with me on Monday.

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I always love when folks start worrying that it will be just too cold and suppress the storm track to the south. When there is extended cold in this area....it is highly likely a significant snow will occur. With the magnitude and length of the coming cold - I would be surprised if we don't have at least 2 significant winter events. If you are a winter lover it will not get much better than the next 3 weeks....well unless it was February 2010!!

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I always love when folks start worrying that it will be just too cold and suppress the storm track to the south. When there is extended cold in this area....it is highly likely a significant snow will occur. With the magnitude and length of the coming cold - I would be surprised if we don't have at least 2 significant winter events. If you are a winter lover it will not get much better than the next 3 weeks....well unless it was February 2010!!

 

I like your optimism and hopefully you are right!

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nice zonal flow with a se ridge! Smh...indices are not looking good either. Expect it to change at 0z imo back to a colder regime. Been flopping for days now .

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747

Seriously this is about a drastic flip in the long range outlook that had been modeled for a long time that i can remember. If we can possibly cool back into a middle of the road solution it might better favor a large snow event

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nice zonal flow with a se ridge! Smh...indices are not looking good either. Expect it to change at 0z imo back to a colder regime. Been flopping for days now .

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747

Seriously this is about a drastic flip in the long range outlook that had been modeled for a long time that i can remember. If we can possibly cool back into a middle of the road solution it might better favor a large snow event

We still have the euro ens which I'll take over the gfs anyday.
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ok what model does abc 6 use they showed a nice 3-6" snow on tuesday area wide

 

 

They must be attempting to forecast..... 12zgfs shows a low getting somewhat closer to the coast... perhaps they think it comes closer to give us their 3-6" I guess it is plausible but not likely at this time.

 

On The other hand the SREF looks even better... maybe now the models have backed off the "POLAR VORTEX" and instead will head to the Snowstorm solutions even with an NAO that is neutral to positive.

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Just saw the temperature departures since 12/18 in new england thread and it struck me how similar this season is to 2003-4. That winter went cold/mild in near two week intervals with frequently erased snows. This winter with shorter duration periods in the cold and mild

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Or

3) you jump in the car and drive to Portsmouth nh (like I am doing tonight / Saturday am) and arrive during what could be 6"+ (if the latest gfs/nam are on to something)!!!!!

I'll bring some back with me on Monday.

How much can you bring back?

We'll....we did get the 6"+ in Durham NH just before our arrival for the UNH vs Union hockey game....

Now I'm trying really hard to bring it back to Philly with Tuesday's storm :) !!!

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Or

3) you jump in the car and drive to Portsmouth nh (like I am doing tonight / Saturday am) and arrive during what could be 6"+ (if the latest gfs/nam are on to something)!!!!!

I'll bring some back with me on Monday.

We'll....we did get the 6"+ in Durham NH just before our arrival for the UNH vs Union hockey game....

Now I'm trying really hard to bring it back to Philly with Tuesday's storm :) !!!

Yeh but, "I'm gonna need a bigger boat".......(strike that)...TRUCK :) !!!

SUCCESS....So I found that bigger truck and brought a whole lot back with me tonight!

Delivery across the entire area begins late tomorrow morning.....I'm sure I have enough for 8"+ for all :) !!!

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Can anyone tell me why in the world Mt. Holly did not post winter storm watches for the Lehigh Valley with  their 18Z forecasted WWA when we are now either at or over warning criteria with the latest GFS runs?  Thanks

You have to assume ratios to make that statement.  Recall the last storm, per Tony's post (the Ratio thread) the lower ratios were on the northwest fringe. 

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Can anyone tell me why in the world Mt. Holly did not post winter storm watches for the Lehigh Valley with  their 18Z forecasted WWA when we are now either at or over warning criteria with the latest GFS runs?  Thanks

Because their forecast in LV is 4-6 and warning criteria is 6". In bucks their forecast is 6-8" meaning criteria met

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