Geos Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 EC has dropped some of the western-most winter storm warnings in Ontario to reflect the more eastern track of this storm. Doubt YYZ sees more than 1-3cm. Hoping a solid dusting layer since Oakville missed out on the lake effect snow cover from last week. EDIT: Radar even starting to look like this will be a complete whiff. Deformation band needs to do some back building! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just stoppin by from SNE forum, looks like someone in E OHIO is gonna get absolutely smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Picked up some on and off snow grains this aft. here in North York. It's amazing how the radar is completely filled Lake Ontario and just stops right off Toronto Harbourfront Deformation band is NOT as impressive as modelled, though. I actually doubt anyone will even observe -SN from this event. Looks to be 0cm for southern Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Picked up some on and off snow grains this aft. here in North York. It's amazing how the radar is completely filled Lake Ontario and just stops right off Toronto Harbourfront Deformation band is NOT as impressive as modelled, though. I actually doubt anyone will even observe -SN from this event. Looks to be 0cm for southern Ontario I think flurries is a good call for this haha. I kinda knew this would happen. The parameters weren't right for Toronto to get anything out of this. The phasing and timing weren't on our time. The models also showed the precip to start later in the evening, btw. So lets wait till atleast 12am, haha. Sometimes its good to be conservative, its better than wishcasting haha or being a weenie. Know what i mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 I think flurries is a good call for this haha. I kinda knew this would happen. The parameters weren't right for Toronto to get anything out of this. The phasing and timing weren't on our time. The models also showed the precip to start later in the evening, btw. So lets wait till atleast 12am, haha. Sometimes its good to be conservative, its better than wishcasting haha or being a weenie. Know what i mean? Well there's a difference between hoping and being a weenie/wishcaster. I think natural weenies should definitely be conservative because they tend to become intolerable when things don't go their way. I am quite a relaxed personality so there's no need, for my mental health, to be conservative automatically. I am always very conservative in the long range, though. Hoping: I am hoping we get 3-4"!! That would be great!! Weenie/wishcaster: LOOK YOU GUYS ARE ALL WRONG IT'S GOING TO BE A SNOWSTORM. IT'S A LOCK. -impending implosion- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I think flurries is a good call for this haha. I kinda knew this would happen. The parameters weren't right for Toronto to get anything out of this. The phasing and timing weren't on our time. The models also showed the precip to start later in the evening, btw. So lets wait till atleast 12am, haha. Sometimes its good to be conservative, its better than wishcasting haha or being a weenie. Know what i mean? lol, your posts belie this assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 btw...for the Toronto weenies....I do think the CCB shield will pivot a bit to the west starting at 0z once the sfc/upr low start to deepen. But we're talking dusting to coating amounts, especially west of Yonge Street. YHM reporting -SN and 2 SM visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Well there's a difference between hoping and being a weenie/wishcaster. I think natural weenies should definitely be conservative because they tend to become intolerable when things don't go their way. I am quite a relaxed personality so there's no need, for my mental health, to be conservative automatically. I am always very conservative in the long range, though. Hoping: I am hoping we get 3-4"!! That would be great!! Weenie/wishcaster: LOOK YOU GUYS ARE ALL WRONG IT'S GOING TO BE A SNOWSTORM. IT'S A LOCK. -impending implosion- LOL, sometimes its okay to be a weenie but theirs always a point where like you said it becomes intolerable. I'm not worried at all. Its only November, we still have 4 months ahead of us. Heck even April winds up seeing a nice little accumulation once in a while. Our average for November is only 6-10cm so it doesn't really matter a whole lot. Its hard to trust models, however. In recent years, the models always put us in the Golden Spot then as time goes by, it slowly fades to a point where were in the worst spot. Goes to show you, cant put 100% faith in models, even less than 24 hours out. By that time it comes to a point where you must analyze current observations and pinpoint it to what models are showing. This year, the models have been awful but it can be explained by the Tropical Waves, MJO, etc. in the Pacific. lol, your posts belie this assertion. lmao, i have to boost peoples confidence sometimes, haha. I didn't really pay attention to this matter of fact. I'm more lean on what the next few weeks hold as we get deeper into Winter. I still remember your kind words from 2010-11 about model hugging and that sort of stuff, haha I think flurries is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 btw...for the Toronto weenies....I do think the CCB shield will pivot a bit to the west starting at 0z once the sfc/upr low start to deepen. But we're talking dusting to coating amounts, especially west of Yonge Street. YHM reporting -SN and 2 SM visibility. You are absolutely right SSC. Maybe 50 miles to our ENE they will start hitting the shovels. Typically Brockville, Cornwall, Ottawa et al....get hammered. At best we might get an inch downtown Toronto here. Remember back 6 yrs. ago winter 2007-08? Sometimes stuff happens here, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Per kbuf radar, precip is starting to expand north and west of the lake rather quickly. Probably due to the sfc low deepening and beginning the phase as SSC mentioned. Thinking 2-9cm is a good call for the GTA with higher end of the range across oshawa, ajax, whitby areas and toronto itself as well as w and north end of the city on the lower end. We will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 You are absolutely right SSC. Maybe 50 miles to our ENE they will start hitting the shovels. Typically Brockville, Cornwall, Ottawa et al....get hammered. At best we might get an inch downtown Toronto here. Remember back 6 yrs. ago winter 2007-08? Sometimes stuff happens here, but not much. Keep things in perspective. 4 days ago you were going to be smoking cirrus from this storm. So even an inch is a decent accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Well we now have rain along the lakeshore. This is one of the rare times it doesn't sting to have rain since this wasn't going to be much of a storm anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Well we now have rain along the lakeshore. This is one of the rare times it doesn't sting to have rain since this wasn't going to be much of a storm anyways And it doesn't sting not to be in Waterloo because the pcpn shield probably isnt going to reach them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 EC has adjusted forecast for GTA from 4-6cm to 2cm and 0 cm along the lakeshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Wet flurries falling outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 And it doesn't sting not to be in Waterloo because the pcpn shield probably isnt going to reach them. Hahaha you have a good memory. Graduated and moved onto greener pastures for one more year of school in Toronto to complete my post grad. With my location here Ill put this storm in the win category if I wake up with roughly 2-4cm. Cant ask for much more in November without the added benefit of living beside the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Hahaha you have a good memory. Graduated and moved onto greener pastures for one more year of school in Toronto to complete my post grad. With my location here Ill put this storm in the win category if I wake up with roughly 2-4cm. Cant ask for much more in November without the added benefit of living beside the lake Been there, done that. Hopefully, unlike me, you're getting your graduate degree in a useful field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Gets better each day out here. Already have seen 16 or 17 inches of snow with more to come next week. It's really amazing to think that, in spite of Edmonton's head start, in an average winter Toronto will almost catch up in terms of total snowfall. Very different peak seasons though. For sure. Edmonton sometimes gets some strong spring snowstorms in April and May. It looks like you are going to be very cold come December according to the long range models. Currently, light wet snow is falling in downtown Toronto. Nothing sticking to the ground yet and I'll be surprised if I see white tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 For sure. Edmonton sometimes gets some strong spring snowstorms in April and May. It looks like you are going to be very cold come December according to the long range models. Currently, light wet snow is falling in downtown Toronto. Nothing sticking to the ground yet and I'll be surprised if I see white tomorrow morning. Back in Toronto on the 20th of next month. Save the blizzard for the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Textbook -SN in north york. Wetting the roads but trace already on dirt/grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Back in Toronto on the 20th of next month. Save the blizzard for the 21st. I'll do my best. If the long range data is correct, there should be plenty of storms leading up to the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Grassy areas doin well with accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Grassy areas doin well with accumulations Yeah its accumulating in my region as well. Sidewalks and driveways nicely covered. My rooftop is all covered up. I still have the snow piles left from the weekend LES, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Grassy areas doin well with accumulations Great. I noticed the accums on the MTO cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 The snow is pretty! About half a centimetre on surfaces but roads are struggling as the snow is quite moist. I figure ECs call of 2cm is fair. Roads might be pretty icy tomorrow though if we freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Light snow falling at my place. Calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Looks like areas just to the SE of buffalo in the jackpot. Warm air winning out more than foretasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Looks like areas just to the SE of buffalo in the jackpot. Warm air winning out more than foretasted? Not that I wouldnt love to be seeing some of that scenic wet snow right now, but storms like this are basically a b*tch for almost everyone. New Englanders are mad because they are getting deluged in warm rain in what original showed up as a major snowstorm for them, midwesterners are mad because the storm missed us completely (even though we were never in it, it always sucks to miss out on such a widespread storm), and those getting the snow are mad because many if not most of them are getting less than what they were forecast to get. But its only November...just another sign that another crazy season of highs and lows and model mayhem is about the commence. Met winter starts Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 SN here now. Flakes are small but surprisingly wet! Roads and sidewalks downtown now covered with very slippery sleet, serving as a base for accumulations now, especially with the temperature dropping a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Glad to hear Toronto was able to get something out of this. Earlier this afternoon I was beginning to wonder about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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