toronto blizzard Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 There's a blizzard coming? Shows how much i give a damn about Edmonton weather. Looks like it. The CMC EURO, GFS all show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 ^^ Just my $0.02 (or should I round to $0.05?) Always good to be realistic especially this early in the season. In fact I'd even be pretty happy with some low end amounts, what ever falls will likely stick around for a little while, and this beats the hell out of the last few season starts we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 ^^ Just my $0.02 (or should I round to $0.05?) Always good to be realistic especially this early in the season. In fact I'd even be pretty happy with some low end amounts, what ever falls will likely stick around for a little while, and this beats the hell out of the last few season starts we've had. Good perspective. Getting any type of appreciable November snow the last 3-4 years has been like pulling teeth. Enjoy what you get. It's getting to the point where November snow is like what October snow used to be. Bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Good perspective. Getting any type of appreciable November snow the last 3-4 years has been like pulling teeth. Enjoy what you get. It's getting to the point where November snow is like what October snow used to be. Bonus snow. Very true. I can't remember a time in the past 6 years where I've been able to track a legitimate synoptic snow threat in November. Even if this ends up being only a few inches, it's still a welcome from the late start winters of years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Here are the SREF plumes for BUF, YYZ, and CLE. Quite a spread on these: BUF: CLE: YYZ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Good perspective. Getting any type of appreciable November snow the last 3-4 years has been like pulling teeth. Enjoy what you get. It's getting to the point where November snow is like what October snow used to be. Bonus snow. To be honest, the only significant November snow events I can remember growing up in Toronto were in 1992, 1997 and 2002. I'm at McCowan and Steeles, so I'm hoping for 2"/5cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 To be honest, the only significant November snow events I can remember growing up in Toronto were in 1992, 1997 and 2002. I'm at McCowan and Steeles, so I'm hoping for 2"/5cm. We had a decent clipper in Nov 2008 and a frontal boundary brought some nice snow in Nov 2007 as well following a good soaking. And as far as i can remember Nov 2005 also had a nice clipper too. In recent years since 2008, November snows have been crap. I agree with the posts by canuck and Harrisale....seeing November snow now is like a blessing. Its been hard to come by like in November 2009 where no snow was recorded. Last November was seasonal in terms of temps but no noteworthy snowfall. So lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Very true. I can't remember a time in the past 6 years where I've been able to track a legitimate synoptic snow threat in November. Even if this ends up being only a few inches, it's still a welcome from the late start winters of years past. I guess the good news is that of the last 4 dud Novembers, only 2 of the following winters sucked (2009-10 sucked big time at YYZ, CLE may have done better with the gradient so your ratio might be even better). So lack of snow in November is not a litmus test for the rest of the winter but it certainly is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 To be honest, the only significant November snow events I can remember growing up in Toronto were in 1992, 1997 and 2002. I'm at McCowan and Steeles, so I'm hoping for 2"/5cm. 2002 was the last warning criteria snow in November in Toronto. However, there were significant snows in 2005, 2007, and 2008, as Snowstorms mentioned. I think those amounts will likely verify for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 I expect widespread accumulations of 2" in the GTA at the very least. I think 4" is not off the table, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 00Z GEM shifts east. Toronto definitely won't have any mixed precip (colder run) but less precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 00Z GEM shifts east. Toronto definitely won't have any mixed precip (colder run) but less precip... Amounts are generally the same, the precip shield is stronger and lasts a bit longer so it makes up for the deficit. And its the 0z RGEM, 0z CMC OR GGEM comes out at 12. All 0z models thus far have around 4-8cm for the GTA which is reasonable and have cooled off the air temperatures. The Nam WRF and the rapid fresh model however, are very interesting, both short-term models. They showed around 10cm for the GTA. 0Z UKMET should be coming out in the next 25-35 mins and the Euro in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 This system is a bear that will disappoint. I have zero doubt. Moral victory in that 4 days ago it was OTS and at least there was something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 This system is a bear that will disappoint. I have zero doubt. Moral victory in that 4 days ago it was OTS and at least there was something to track. Hope things are going well for you in Edmonton. It looks like this storm will have a very sharp western snow edge somewhere around the GTA. This could be one of those storms where Pearson Airport gets only an inch or less while downtown and points east into Scarborough get 2+" easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 0z GEM would be great for you YYZ posters. RGEM was a bit east. I'll say 3" for YYZ proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm definitely hoping for 3"! I think it's possible that we could either win or fail miserably given how borderline this whole shebang is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Hope things are going well for you in Edmonton. It looks like this storm will have a very sharp western snow edge somewhere around the GTA. This could be one of those storms where Pearson Airport gets only an inch or less while downtown and points east into Scarborough get 2+" easily. Gets better each day out here. Already have seen 16 or 17 inches of snow with more to come next week. It's really amazing to think that, in spite of Edmonton's head start, in an average winter Toronto will almost catch up in terms of total snowfall. Very different peak seasons though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Gets better each day out here. Already have seen 16 or 17 inches of snow with more to come next week. It's really amazing to think that, in spite of Edmonton's head start, in an average winter Toronto will almost catch up in terms of total snowfall. Very different peak seasons though.In edmonton its colder therefore the snow stays on the ground longer, thats one good asset though it stays dry in the dead heart of winter. All it takes is one or two storms in Toronto to catch up to Edmontons snowfall, that it most likely received in the first half of its winter season.The models show an intense Arctic outbreak coming your way to kick start December so thats something to look forward too above average temps this week ahey? As for this storm my current thoughts are a general 2-6cm for the GTA at best. I highly doubt we"ll get more than that. It will be light when it will fall. Should see another push of cold arctic air and LES after this storm rolls by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 In edmonton its colder therefore the snow stays on the ground longer, thats one good asset though it stays dry in the dead heart of winter. All it takes is one or two storms in Toronto to catch up to Edmontons snowfall, that it most likely received in the first half of its winter season. The models show an intense Arctic outbreak coming your way to kick start December so thats something to look forward too above average temps this week ahey? As for this storm my current thoughts are a general 2-6cm for the GTA at best. I highly doubt we"ll get more than that. It will be light when it will fall. Should see another push of cold arctic air and LES after this storm rolls by. Yes, the 12z Canadian didn't look very promising for Toronto, although the 12z GFS was okay. I'm still hoping for 5cm. What would really make up for this would be if some snow squalls could make it down to my area after the storm, as they did on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Gets better each day out here. Already have seen 16 or 17 inches of snow with more to come next week. It's really amazing to think that, in spite of Edmonton's head start, in an average winter Toronto will almost catch up in terms of total snowfall. Very different peak seasons though. Edmonton has a reasonably good climate, and it's really far north too - I imagine the mornings must be quite dark up there by this time. If you're there in the late spring, however, the sun will set after 10 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 12Z GEM gives us a dusting, barely even touches us. But if this thing shifts even a tad bit west at all or if there is lake enhancement of the northwesterly side of the low we still have a shot... this may be one of those now-casting eventsEdmonton isn't as cold as its prairie counterparts, despite it's latitude. It has an extremely sunny climate, quite dry there. The main problem with Edmonton is that it's BORING. Its moniker is "Deadmonton" for a reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Environment Canada is closely monitoring the Progress of this winter storm. Small deviations in the exact track of this storm centre may result in significant changes in the amount of snow that falls tonight into Wednesday. Should the storm centre track just a little closer to the regions, snowfall warnings may be required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Environment Canada is closely monitoring the Progress of this winter storm. Small deviations in the exact track of this storm centre may result in significant changes in the amount of snow that falls tonight into Wednesday. Should the storm centre track just a little closer to the regions, snowfall warnings may be required. Still holding out hope eh? If anything the precip shield looks a bit larger than forecast. Track is pretty much spot on as forecast yesterday since a last little eastern jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Latest forecast from the CBC Weather Centre pic.twitter.com/lZE74BSuY4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 I am definitely holding out hope! I believe we can get those 3-4"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 -SN has started here. Very little wind, flakes falling straight down. I miss this, nice to see, regardless of accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I am definitely holding out hope! I believe we can get those 3-4"! It's better to concede the storms that have no hope and save the positive thinking for more suitable candidates. If you psyche yourself up for every storm you'll end up being disappointed and dissatisfied more often then you should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It's better to concede the storms that have no hope and save the positive thinking for more suitable candidates. If you psyche yourself up for every storm you'll end up being disappointed and dissatisfied more often then you should. This. I'm pretty much expecting this to be a miss for us. We'll be lucky to see a dusting. Roll on the next arctic cold wave next week and let's hope it brings some lake effect squalls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 EC has dropped some of the western-most winter storm warnings in Ontario to reflect the more eastern track of this storm. Doubt YYZ sees more than 1-3cm. Hoping a solid dusting layer since Oakville missed out on the lake effect snow cover from last week. EDIT: Radar even starting to look like this will be a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Haha I appreciate the concern for my sanity. I'm not one to get too bummed even if I get hyped (although that storm at the end of February was crushing when it turned to rain). I enjoy riding whatever the case may be. When there is a sliver of a chance it's always fun to wait and see! I'm certainly not going to be disappointed if I get zilch, this is a hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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