November 26-27, 2013 Snow Event

[OHweather]

The models that drop the heaviest snow from portions of OH into PA, western NY, SE Ontario and western Quebec all look like they close off the northern stream S/W west of Lake Superior tonight and slow it down enough for the cut-off over Texas to scoot east. The northern shortwave will plunge into the upper Midwest this evening so we'll see how it acts as it does so. All of the energy is fully sampled so I'm not sure how much this can shift one way or another...but it doesn't help that the 12z GFS still doesn't close off the northern jet S/W west of Lake Superior tonight while just about all of the 0z foreign models did. I'd give the nod to the non-GFS camp at this point which may bring decent accumulations as far west as Cleveland and Toronto but it'll be interesting. At this point if the 12z Euro/Canadian/UK come in and are more progressive with the northern shortwave and subsequently show a less phased storm it's probably game over with not enough time to recover on the western fringes...so places like Columbus, Cleveland and Toronto.

[Snowstorms]

We should get a more fixed track and where the precip field tracks tonight as everythig will be fully sampled. Right now models are still iffy on the overall timing and phasing so thats why were seeing such differences amongst the models on where the precip tracks.

Currently northern Ohio and areas around the Niagara region look to get a good 4-8" atleast. I'd lean towards 2-4" for the GTA while EONT gets the brunt with amounts of 6-12".

We have seen sudden changes and slight differences during the OBS part, so expect a bit more flip-flopping till 0z tonight.

[WestCoaster]

12Z GEM looks great for most of Ohio

[Trent]

Euro nudged a hair to the east.

It's nice to be able to be glued to each model run for an impending snowstorm in November!

[Toronto4]

I haven't posted in a while but my initial thoughts for the Toronto area is 2-3" of snow. Read on another forum that the 12z ECMWF held serve for the most part (around 0.30" QPF vs 0.40" from the 00z run). I think the key for the GTA is to have one dominant system ride up from the Gulf states instead of having another secondary system develop off the east coast and shift everything east (like today's 12z UKMET).

[on_wx]

CBC's snowfall forecast for Southern Ontario. 

pic.twitter.com/B8OwalbZ5y

[WestCoaster]

NWS has upgraded their WS Watch to a WS warning for extreme eastern NY; the areas west of Buffalo/Niagara are still under a watch (due to precipitation likely falling as mixed precip or rain) whereas Buffalo/Niagara are now warnings.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

NYZ001-010-260500-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0003.131127T0000Z-131128T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.131126T2100Z-131127T2100Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO
339 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO
4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES....BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL START LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STEADIEST SNOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THANKSGIVING WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$

[WestCoaster]

Meanwhile EC has a WS watch for eastern Ontario (Ottawa area) and 2 sloppy, localized inches for the GTA.

[BuffaloWeather]

NWS has upgraded their WS Watch to a WS warning for extreme eastern NY; the areas west of Buffalo/Niagara are still under a watch (due to precipitation likely falling as mixed precip or rain) whereas Buffalo/Niagara are now warnings.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

339 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

NYZ001-010-260500-

/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0003.131127T0000Z-131128T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.131126T2100Z-131127T2100Z/

NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO

339 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO

4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE

BUFFALO METRO AREA.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES....BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL START LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE

STEADIEST SNOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT

IMPACT ON THANKSGIVING WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS...RESULTING IN

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS

EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU

SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE

EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE

THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY

VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND

USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT

BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES

AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN

BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]

TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG

BUFWX

&&

$

 

I am under the same warning yet my accumulation forecast is insanely different.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.* TIMING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

[harrisale]

Latest NAM and EURO in agreement on about 3" for YYZ. Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville likely to see similar totals but anything northwest of a line from Brantford to Vaughan will likley see nothing more than trace. Very sharp gradient from this system. St Catherine's will be the winning in terms of SW ON, Kingston and Ottawa winners out east.

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest NAM and EURO in agreement on about 3" for YYZ. Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville likely to see similar totals but anything northwest of a line from Brantford to Vaughan will likley see nothing more than trace. Very sharp gradient from this system. St Catherine's will be the winning in terms of SW ON, Kingston and Ottawa winners out east.

 

I can see some places across the escarpment getting some NE wind lake enhancement from Ontario. It nearly always happens with systems like these. Those counties directly below Lake Ontario usually end up with the highest totals in events like this even though they are farther away from the strongest dynamics of the storm.

[WestCoaster]

I think EC is going to bust low with this one. A 3-4" swatch I would imagine for SW ontario. Go Buffalo!! I hope you pick up 10"

[BuffaloWeather]

I think EC is going to bust low with this one. A 3-4" swatch I would imagine for SW ontario. Go Buffalo!! I hope you pick up 10"

 

Rochester NY usually cashes in on events such as these. I can see them being the bull-eye with additional lake enhancement following the departing system. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15 inch totals there. Sometimes events like these also go more NW than expected...I remember countless storms that do this and end up getting sleet/freezing rain when none was predicted. If that happens hopefully you guys can cash in on some decent accumulations as well. =)

[WestCoaster]

Latest NAM and EURO in agreement on about 3" for YYZ. Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville likely to see similar totals but anything northwest of a line from Brantford to Vaughan will likley see nothing more than trace. Very sharp gradient from this system. St Catherine's will be the winning in terms of SW ON, Kingston and Ottawa winners out east.

 

EC only has 1" for Oakville/Burlington/Hamilton but I don't buy it. I think they will do better than the GTA. You could be in for a wet 4" of snow! GEM has perfect south easterlies for the north side of the golden horseshoe for lake enhancement.

[Snowstorms]

Anthony Farnell from global is going with 3-8cm for the GTA which is reasonable given the latest models. My forecast is the same. Area closer to the lake will wind up getting around 7-9cm in my opinion. Clearly EC is going too warm for this system.

Areas like King city will get next to nothing. Areas south of Highway 7 will likely get 4-8cm, and slightly north around 3-7cm. Sharp cutoff.

EC should give some watches. This is a sizeable storm for November standards in the GTA, warning to the public should be given.

[WestCoaster]

Anthony Farnell from global is going with 3-8cm for the GTA which is reasonable given the latest models. My forecast is the same. Area closer to the lake will wind up getting around 7-9cm in my opinion. Clearly EC is going too warm for this system.

Areas like King city will get next to nothing. Areas south of Highway 7 will likely get 4-8cm, and slightly north around 3-7cm. Sharp cutoff.

EC should give some watches. This is a sizeable storm for November standards in the GTA, warning to the public should be given.

 

Don't worry, they'll advise the public while it's happening or just after it has happened. 

[WestCoaster]

EC forecasting 2" for northern sections of the GTA, no accumulations for areas alone the lakeshore

WOCN11 CWTO 252134
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 4:34 PM
EST Monday 25 November 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Niagara
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward.

A brush with a winter storm Tuesday night into Wednesday
Morning.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement ended for:
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A major low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to intensify and move towards the Northeastern United States
by Wednesday morning.

Wet snow associated with this system is expected to overspread the
regions late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The snow will be
mixed with rain at times Tuesday evening, especially near Lake
Ontario. Snow will end during the day Wednesday.

A general snowfall near 10 cm is expected in a swath extending from
north of Toronto eastward to the Peterborough areas.
Elsewhere amounts will be quite variable with most places receiving 2
to 5 cm. Many areas near the Lake Ontario shoreline will see little
accumulation.

As the majority of the precipitation is expected to fall Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, it is likely that the Wednesday morning
commute will be affected.

Please note that the brunt of the storm is headed for Eastern Ontario
where winter storm watches have been posted for Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

[buckeye]

ILN going with 2-4" for cmh area, hoisting WSW for counties just to the south for 3-5".    This should be a fun one to watch unfold, I bet there will be an impressive, but narrow, swath of 'heavier than forecasted' somewhere between CMH and PIT.   

[Snowstorms]

Don't worry, they'll advise the public while it's happening or just after it has happened.

Lmaoo, Well a statement is not really a warning, its just a statement and the word never gets out considering TWN doesnt talk about it or any media outlet, LOL.

A watch on the other hand is like saying "watch out bad weather is on the way, be prepared". Its better worded.

For november a 3-10cm storm is sizeable.

[Roger Smith]

Thinking the axis of heaviest snow will actually run through c WV and PIT then n.n.e. through BUF with Lake Ontario disrupting the pattern but generally it will pick up again around YPQ to YOW, amounts about 4" PIT, 6" BUF, and 8-12" (20-30 cm) YPQ to YOW, that will link up with an area of about 15 cm north of Toronto that gradually reduces to 3-5 cm lakeshore due mostly to mixing and melting of falling wet snow. Slushfest for city of Toronto basically. Heavier snow will develop Wed pm and evg into e ON and w QC with some thundersnow possible in Ottawa valley. Amounts in OH would be more dependent on lake enhancement bands so that n.e. OH may see the most there.

[on_wx]

Lmaoo, Well a statement is not really a warning, its just a statement and the word never gets out considering TWN doesnt talk about it or any media outlet, LOL.

A watch on the other hand is like saying "watch out bad weather is on the way, be prepared". Its better worded.

For november a 3-10cm storm is sizeable.

 

Local tv/radio in KW always report on special weather statements for the Region of Waterloo just like any other severe weather bulletin. I'm sure this will be talked about in the GTA.

[snowstormcanuck]

Lmaoo, Well a statement is not really a warning, its just a statement and the word never gets out considering TWN doesnt talk about it or any media outlet, LOL.

A watch on the other hand is like saying "watch out bad weather is on the way, be prepared". Its better worded.

For november a 3-10cm storm is sizeable.

 

EC doesnt vary the criteria for watches or warnings depending on the time of season. And I agree with them. A watch for a sub-criteria event, especially one that has a high bust potential, wouldn't be prudent. Assuming they issued a watch and the forecast busted, it would just make the public more jaded and cynical about weather alerts than they already are.

[vespasian70]

ILN going with 2-4" for cmh area, hoisting WSW for counties just to the south for 3-5".    This should be a fun one to watch unfold, I bet there will be an impressive, but narrow, swath of 'heavier than forecasted' somewhere between CMH and PIT.   

 

Hopefully Steve and I will be happy then.

[snowstormcanuck]

In early season, marginal temp storms like this, Lake Ontario is going to be a hinderance to snowfall accums, rather than a help.

[snowstormcanuck]

Thinking the axis of heaviest snow will actually run through c WV and PIT then n.n.e. through BUF with Lake Ontario disrupting the pattern but generally it will pick up again around YPQ to YOW, amounts about 4" PIT, 6" BUF, and 8-12" (20-30 cm) YPQ to YOW, that will link up with an area of about 15 cm north of Toronto that gradually reduces to 3-5 cm lakeshore due mostly to mixing and melting of falling wet snow. Slushfest for city of Toronto basically. Heavier snow will develop Wed pm and evg into e ON and w QC with some thundersnow possible in Ottawa valley. Amounts in OH would be more dependent on lake enhancement bands so that n.e. OH may see the most there.

 

My thinking is similar, although I don't think anyone west of Peterborough is getting near 6". 4" max along the Oak Ridges east of Highway 400.

[toronto blizzard]

My thinking is similar, although I don't think anyone west of Peterborough is getting near 6". 4" max along the Oak Ridges east of Highway 400.

Enjoy your blizzard next week Mike!

[michsnowfreak]

Jealous that the first notable snowstorm in our region will be just missing me. Quite a bit of warm air with this system (considering the cold blast we just endured, that is), so those that see all snow should see the picturesque variety.

[harrisale]

EC has been getting a bit of flak on the board as of late (and twitter as well) but really is a winter storm warning necessary for this event (in the GTA)? A Special Weather Statement should suffice unless we see any indication of more snowfall or ice. CTV news just covered the weather statement as well as 680 News so it's not like it's not getting any attention.

This has been a marginal event for YYZ from the start and I may even bust high with my 2-3" call (particularly downtown) depending on how the lake plays into things and how much mixing there is. There's been a lot of GEM hugging around because it's been consistently spitting out the highest snowfall amounts (10-15cm), and there is still little to no support for these amounts.

I'm still excited for some snowfall don't get me wrong, and this will be fun to track but the jackpot amounts will be further east as guidance has suggested from the start.

[snowstormcanuck]

Enjoy your blizzard next week Mike!

 

There's a blizzard coming? Shows how much i give a damn about Edmonton weather.

[Snowstorms]

EC doesnt vary the criteria for watches or warnings depending on the time of season. And I agree with them. A watch for a sub-criteria event, especially one that has a high bust potential, wouldn't be prudent. Assuming they issued a watch and the forecast busted, it would just make the public more jaded and cynical about weather alerts than they already are.

 

Yeah true, this storm isnt a 100% possibility for the GTA, far from it actually. Timing and phasing is very crucial with this storm to an observational point. EC in many senses is  very slow to issue warnings and watches to the public sometimes. I understand there are possibilities for bust potentials like the groundhog storm so its understandable to a certain degree. For November, even 5cm would delight me. Climo for November is around 7-10cm in Toronto anyways. 

 

EC has been getting a bit of flak on the board as of late (and twitter as well) but really is a winter storm warning necessary for this event (in the GTA)? A Special Weather Statement should suffice unless we see any indication of more snowfall or ice. CTV news just covered the weather statement as well as 680 News so it's not like it's not getting any attention.

This has been a marginal event for YYZ from the start and I may even bust high with my 2-3" call (particularly downtown) depending on how the lake plays into things and how much mixing there is. There's been a lot of GEM hugging around because it's been consistently spitting out the highest snowfall amounts (10-15cm), and there is still little to no support for these amounts.

I'm still excited for some snowfall don't get me wrong, and this will be fun to track but the jackpot amounts will be further east as guidance has suggested from the start.

 

Yeah true. Its possible areas right beside the lake may get mixing to start but as temperatures cool with low level cooling at nighttime it should gradually turn over to snow. Any snow that does fall will likely end up being wet snow, similar to that storm we saw in late February last winter. 

 

I dont suspect any area in the GTA will get 10cm expect maybe Oshawa but otherwise, amounts should be lower than 8cm. More LES is likely after this storm, similar to this past outbreak.