Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Could even argue that at one point it may have been a hurricane 250 miles south of Cape Cod but yep at landfall it was definitely Sub-Tropical with gusts to 100mph in some places so in no way is this possible storm going to be anything like that but it could be a nasty wind storm stillnobody implied elsewise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 FYI SE winds in 94,The original low passed along the south shore of Long Island, and made landfall near New York City on December 24.Subsequently, it moved over southeastern New York State I had NE winds as did most of SNE. KGON did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 FYI SE winds in 94,The original low passed along the south shore of Long Island, and made landfall near New York City on December 24.Subsequently, it moved over southeastern New York State I only see NE winds in BOS and BDL - with a low to the south it's almost impossible to get a SE wind during the storm's peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 If I can find it I will, but I did a paper on the 1994 storm and showing evidence of tropical characteristics (part of finishing up my degree at NC State but it wasn't in a journal or anything). I lived on Long Island during that storm and even where I was saw 60 mph gusts and driving rains. Anyway moving on to this storm this is the GFS modeled 925 winds at 12z Wed: It will be interesting to see who can get some of that to mix down. Might be fun to be at Blue Hill if you are a high wind enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I had NE winds as did most of SNE. KGON did too. 300 year old quohog shells along the pawcatux say SE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I only see NE winds in BOS and BDL - with a low to the south it's almost impossible to get a SE wind during the storm's peak.I was working at Pfizers in GON that night thought I remembered a switch to SE around 2 am with a surge coming up the Thames at the same time. Could be wrong but really tough to get surge up there with NE winds, East I can see, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 300 year old quohog shells along the pawcatux say SE winds Native Weekapaug drawings show SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 If I can find it I will, but I did a paper on the 1994 storm and showing evidence of tropical characteristics (part of finishing up my degree at NC State but it wasn't in a journal or anything). I lived on Long Island during that storm and even where I was saw 60 mph gusts and driving rains. Anyway moving on to this storm this is the GFS modeled 925 winds at 12z Wed: It will be interesting to see who can get some of that to mix down. Might be fun to be at Blue Hill if you are a high wind enthusiast. I was doing work for the NWS and URI ground truth for Doppler Radar back then, had use of some sweet equipment, my gust of 74 in Ashaway RI is part of the official record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Native Weekapaug drawings show SE winds.where did you get GON wind direction? They were knocked off line, link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 where did you get GON wind direction? They were knocked off line, link? BID was NNE for most of the event - briefly out of the east overnight. A lot of the old non-automated stations didn't report hourlies between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 where did you get GON wind direction? They were knocked off line, link? It's on Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 BID was NNE for most of the event - briefly out of the east overnight. A lot of the old non-automated stations didn't report hourlies between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. Thanks for your professional response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's on Wunderground.link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 link? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGON/1994/12/24/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 White Pines, Birch and Poplars are the weak link trees Agree but White Pines are more resilient than most people give them credit. Lots of flexibility. My experience is they usually are most susceptible to the gusts that you find in severe t-storms. Poplars snap mid-way up. No flex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The RPM - which the weenies know and love - has all the precip out of here by Wednesday morning. Very fast arrival.Wait. What? That is weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Doesnt the rpm suck. I have never look'd at it , other than when its posted here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Doesnt the rpm suck. I have never look'd at it , other than when its posted here I think (from what I see here) it's really best suited to very short term approaching "nowcast" situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 0z nam warmer for me and powder freak and 3 goats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think (from what I see here) it's really best suited to very short term approaching "nowcast" situations. I would say so, especially with precipitation. I use it as a tool to forecast but you have to be aware of its caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 I would say so, especially with precipitation. I use it as a tool to forecast but you have to be aware of its caveats. Yeah I give it about the same respect as the NAM. It's another non-hydrostatic model that can be useful with mesoscale details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM keeps the fire hose right over SNE - many 5"+ amounts lol. Pretty good winds from GON to BOS points southeast. The Cape will rip out of the south in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 These keep getting more and more juiced every run also.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_21z/srefloop.html NAM keeps the fire hose right over SNE - many 5"+ amounts lol. Pretty good winds from GON to BOS points southeast. The Cape will rip out of the south in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 These keep getting more and more juiced every run also.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_21z/srefloop.html Seeing Euro Ens mean around 2.5" and SREF mean 3"+ is extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS getting juicier too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just a mere zephyr of a breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Torch, total torch to powdah freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 BUF FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Torch, total torch to powdah freak Winter Storm Watch Pickles. It's all about the backside now. It's going to rain, a lot. But this has good upslope response written all over it on NW winds, CAA, plenty (and I mean plenty) of low-level moisture (that'll happen after 1.5" of rain), and now the duration is the tricky part. Storm will be slowing down as it moves north, and if the mid-levels develop nicely...deep cyclonic WNW flow is going to do some snowy things on Thanksgiving. This looks like a well mixed atmosphere with the CAA at all levels, so Froude numbers would probably be 1<...you could get upslope in Randolph with that fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with this system, as expressed looking at the 18z GFS ensembles (below, which are typically under dispersive). The spread in primary low tracks range from Cape Cod, MA to Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the shortwave digging into the great lakes by 60-72 hours is originating from a large region of shear vorticity which is often very poorly modeled when the feature is strung out over a longwave ridge. Expect a few more substantial shifts before the models lock on to an optimal solution. Hey, we know this guy. Out this way, I think we can really pin our interest on three things: 1) How badly we put a dart in the dry spell 2) Whether we eek out any back end snow 3) How strong will the NW winds be after the storm passes My take: 1) A big dart--that's a sh*tload of rain 2) we'll have flakes but the ground will be too warm and wet for any whitening 3) Not as strong or long-lived as yesterday 11.9/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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