IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I am. 1:00pm, how concerned should I be? I would think that you would be subject to cancelations galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I am. 1:00pm, how concerned should I be? It might be delayed from east coast backlogs. It will be bumpy, but you should make it to wherever you are going..just don't be shocked at a delay. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I would think that you would be subject to cancelations galore. Possible, but I think delay more likely from Logan. NYC may be tougher given volume and worse conditions in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Not to "rain" on your parade, but I feel like your winds may be very brief and just starting to ramp up as they move through. You are CAD for a while I think. agree. just not a great set-up for much wind out that way. and yeah really looks like the core of the jet doesn't get going until its over eastern areas. it really goes to town in the GOM. Oceanwx may get blown away up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Multi-faceted wind potential ... WCB; then "ribbon" echo convection with dynamic momentum transfer; then there is a bit of an isallobaric wind acceleration hinted -- though I'd like to see a better +PP component to this. Either way, PP bombs from the mid 990s to the mid 970s, as the low is leaving the region, should result in some jet engines.. Yeah..looks like a long duration high wind event for most folks east of track..Maybe they start ripping to near 50mph by dawn Tuesday and continue to ramp up during the day..then roar NW with CAA at nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Rain events are exciting when the amounts can be excessive, and this has a legit chance of doing that. Rain events are boring. I'd rather it be cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 18z NAM has lots and lots of wrap around moisture with the second low. Sub 984mb over New England with cold air wrapping around the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yeah..looks like a long duration high wind event for most folks east of track..Maybe they start ripping to near 50mph by dawn Tuesday and continue to ramp up during the day..then roar NW with CAA at nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Rain events are boring. I'd rather it be cold and dry Your opinion, I have mine. I would rather have 12" of rain than 12" of snow. 12" of snow usually happens several times a year but how often do we get 12" of rain from one system? Maybe a handful of times in one lifetime in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 i think out this way...just about the entire day rips. it doesn't look good - especially for the boats. Yep. Figured that for Wednesday. Wasn't sure if the Tuesday night last boats were threatened. I'm thinking not. 35mph is about the cut off on a south wind in the Sound. Thanks again. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Snowing well from the NY/VT state line west at hour 54 on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dude..you have your ideas/opinions and others are allowed to have theirs. You were wrong the last s flow event when you said we wouldn't gust over 40 and we gusted into the mid-high 50's. This is exactly what folks were talking about...it's like we're not allowed to have our own thoughts on this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yep. Figured that for Wednesday. Wasn't sure if the Tuesday night last boats were threatened. I'm thinking not. 35mph is about the cut off on a south wind in the Sound. Thanks again. Cheers. oh - yeah those late night tuesday ones should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dude..you have your ideas/opinions and others are allowed to have theirs. You were wrong the last s flow event when you said we wouldn't gust over 40 and we gusted into the mid-high 50's. This is exactly what folks were talking about...it's like we're not allowed to have our own thoughts on this.. you aren't going to be gusting 50 by tuesday morning. and nice try...no i wasn't...it was pretty much exactly amout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dude..you have your ideas/opinions and others are allowed to have theirs. You were wrong the last s flow event when you said we wouldn't gust over 40 and we gusted into the mid-high 50's. This is exactly what folks were talking about...it's like we're not allowed to have our own thoughts on this.. You are CAD at dawn though. I highly doubt that. Look at the NAM and see the kink along the s coast? That is the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 you aren't going to be gusting 50 by tuesday morning. and nice try...no i wasn't...it was pretty much exactly amout. You specifically told me there wouldn't be any gusts over 40 and there were a fair amount over 50. So yes..yes you were. And to be honest IDC if you think it won't be gusting to 50 around the region by Tuesday AM. I happen to think it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 You specifically told me there wouldn't be any gusts over 40 and there were many over 50. So yes..yes you were. And to be honest IDC if you think it won't be gusting to 50 around the region by Tuesday AM. I happen to think it will You might for a couple of hours...but not sure it's prolonged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Impressive post storm cold and wind, wonder if we rip some more great squalls. Could be colder minimums than this past cold outbreak. Not convinced the warmer solution is as warm as depicted. Again like we saw recently some pretty stout HP in Quebec. Tips cyrosphere is cold in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 agree. just not a great set-up for much wind out that way. and yeah really looks like the core of the jet doesn't get going until its over eastern areas. it really goes to town in the GOM. Oceanwx may get blown away up there. Tailwind all the way to Waterville for Thanksgiving. This is my last shift, so I'll be interested to play around in the grids and see what I can come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Your opinion, I have mine. I would rather have 12" of rain than 12" of snow. 12" of snow usually happens several times a year but how often do we get 12" of rain from one system? Maybe a handful of times in one lifetime in this area.never unless you count hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 You specifically told me there wouldn't be any gusts over 40 and there were many over 50. So yes..yes you were. And to be honest IDC if you think it won't be gusting to 50 around the region by Tuesday AM. I happen to think it will assuming you are talking about twitter conversation from weeks ago? i believe i had a region highlighted that i thought would receive the highest winds in and RI/BOS/ORH/MQE (which, in the end was pretty darn close) and you asked why not NE CT and i trolled you with 30-40 mph. and...tomorrow is tuesday dude...it will not be blowing 50 mph tomorrow morning. if it is...there's a serious problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 ECMWF ensemble mean have the ribbon of heaviest rainfall right up I-95. Large area of > 1.00" in 6 hours rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 never unless you count hurricanes Outside of hurricanes it's extremely rare, but could happen with a cut off low in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 General public doesn't understand the term "hydrometeorological." Weather Prediction Center makes it much easier to understand what they do. Do any member of the general public that aren't weenie members of the general public giving a sh*t? I don't think the non-weenie members are digging into that to see what's there. Just sayin' 28/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 assuming you are talking about twitter conversation from weeks ago? i believe i had a region highlighted that i thought would receive the highest winds in and RI/BOS/ORH/MQE (which, in the end was pretty darn close) and you asked why not NE CT and i trolled you with 30-40 mph. and...tomorrow is tuesday dude...it will not be blowing 50 mph tomorrow morning. if it is...there's a serious problem. Oh lol..I meant Wed morning..Holy ****e..I am pretty dumb Hopefully you guys can gust up near cane force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 assuming you are talking about twitter conversation from weeks ago? i believe i had a region highlighted that i thought would receive the highest winds in and RI/BOS/ORH/MQE (which, in the end was pretty darn close) and you asked why not NE CT and i trolled you with 30-40 mph. and...tomorrow is tuesday dude...it will not be blowing 50 mph tomorrow morning. if it is...there's a serious problem. here's the image in question (i think this is the conversation you are talking about??)...followed by the PNS. looks OK to me. look at those massive gusts CT! but whatever, i'm sure it was 65 in NE CT, despite the 48 mph gust at 1000' ORH and the 51 at the exposed shoreline in Groton. ...HARTFORD COUNTY... SOUTH WINDSOR 48 1005 AM 11/01 AMATEUR RADIO 3 SE HARTFORD 41 1101 AM 11/01 ASOS 1 WNW WINDSOR LOCKS 40 1048 AM 11/01 ASOS ...WINDHAM COUNTY... 3 NE WILLIMANTIC 39 911 AM 11/01 ASOS MASSACHUSETTS ...BARNSTABLE COUNTY... EAST FALMOUTH 58 1200 PM 11/01 NONE HARWICH 51 1101 AM 11/01 AMATEUR RADIO BARNSTABLE 49 1147 AM 11/01 MARSTON MILLS SECTION 2 NE HYANNIS 45 153 PM 11/01 ASOS 2 NW CHATHAM 37 1212 PM 11/01 ASOS ...BRISTOL COUNTY... FALL RIVER 50 918 AM 11/01 AMATEUR RADIO FAIRHAVEN 46 1233 PM 11/01 WEST ISLAND 4 ESE TAUNTON 41 1204 PM 11/01 ASOS ...DUKES COUNTY... 3 S VINEYARD HAVEN 43 1243 PM 11/01 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... 3 NE LAWRENCE 53 1202 PM 11/01 ASOS 5 WNW BEVERLY 49 1140 AM 11/01 ASOS ROCKPORT 48 853 AM 11/01 ALSO 48 MPH AT 1015 AM ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... 2 SE ORANGE 45 1113 AM 11/01 ASOS ...HAMPDEN COUNTY... 2 ENE WESTFIELD 33 1033 AM 11/01 ASOS ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... 2 WSW BEDFORD 32 132 PM 11/01 ASOS ...NANTUCKET COUNTY... 2 ESE NANTUCKET 40 1140 AM 11/01 ASOS ...NORFOLK COUNTY... 3 SSW MILTON 66 1208 PM 11/01 ASOS BROOKLINE 53 1233 PM 11/01 AT THE CLAY CENTER WRENTHAM 45 829 AM 11/01 AMATEUR RADIO 1 ENE NORWOOD 44 857 AM 11/01 ASOS ...PLYMOUTH COUNTY... 4 SW PLYMOUTH 57 1131 AM 11/01 ASOS SCITUATE 47 1005 AM 11/01 AMATEUR RADIO ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... 1 N EAST BOSTON 51 1128 AM 11/01 ASOS ...WORCESTER COUNTY... 3 WNW WORCESTER 48 1131 AM 11/01 ASOS 4 SE FITCHBURG 40 1139 AM 11/01 ASOS NEW HAMPSHIRE ...CHESHIRE COUNTY... 2 SE JAFFREY 46 1108 AM 11/01 ASOS ...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY... 3 SSE MANCHESTER 39 1131 AM 11/01 ASOS RHODE ISLAND ...KENT COUNTY... 2 NNW WARWICK 52 1120 AM 11/01 ASOS WARWICK 47 1110 AM 11/01 AMATEUR RADIO ...NEWPORT COUNTY... 4 NE NEWPORT 41 1136 AM 11/01 ASOS ...WASHINGTON COUNTY... SOUTH KINGSTOWN 55 1000 AM 11/01 SPOTTER 2 SSE WESTERLY 41 1139 AM 11/01 ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wonder when we'll see BOX go HWW? With tonight's package or tomorrow AM? OKX has HWW up for all 4 southern counties in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Oh lol..I meant Wed morning..Holy ****e..I am pretty dumb Hopefully you guys can gust up near cane force ah OK. i had no idea what you were talking about. i thought maybe you had your days mixed up but the way your wrote it both times...i thought you really figured this thing was coming starting at dawn tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 SE winds max out at work due to the open gap between the terminal moraines and LI sound. Basically the winds transport directly from Block Island sound across Stonington and funnels between the two features straight into our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Phil had a very interesting discussion with our work insurance company about max winds in hurricanes and their impacts in SNE. Tomorrow I will scan the building code map they provided. Has work at 115,sustained while the Cape is 105.I tried explaining the flaws in their map. Lol they were clueless. But the recommendations they want done to our roofs are 1/2 million dollar impacts so it is a big deal, all based on the new hurricane maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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