ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What the heck is the WPC? I thought it was the HPC that put those graphics out? Did they change names? Yes,...."Weather Prediction Center" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 euro has 35-40 knot 10-m winds on the Cape. pretty impressive for a time. for a lot of the region though, think there's a better chance for "high" wind wed night into thursday as CAA gets underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes,...."Weather Prediction Center" Ahhh...I was thinking they changed Hydro to Water, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Give up the ghost, someone might see an inch or two in extreme northern New England with maybe some wrap around at the end if you want to believe it. This is primarily a rain event and has been for days. Updated day 2 outlook Aren't u the nyc threads resident weenieYes this is mostly a rainstorm , but for upslope areas in N greens they don't need back end snows , they get upslope , and much more than inch or two. How else does stowe and jay like up over 325 inches a year. Not via "wrap around snow. Upslope baby. My guess is 8-12 at jay and 6-10 for stowe/smuggs/bolton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 still think there's a shot at some light snows over a chunk of E MA sat into sat night...before gradually going to drizzle and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 still think CC low track?? Still think no change to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes,...."Weather Prediction Center" I have to laugh at that name: aren't all the NWS branches "Weather Prediction Centers"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Still think no change to snow? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Noyes with a very large swath of 3" rain. SOS signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I wonder how my Wednesday AM flight out of BDL will be. Hopefully, they won't get too windy at the valley floor, but if things mix out they could get quite gusty. Current 12z NAM soundings suggest they will warm sector and mix for a while by 15z, so getting out could be tough. It should make for a bumpy and interesting ascent though. I also want to take this opportunity to define and clear up some low track nomenclature. While often used interchangeably, and with good reason, the terms "cutter" and "inland runner" mean somewhat different things to me. I like to reserve the use of "inland runner" to a low that tracks east of the Appalachians, but inland (i.e. up the Hudson Valley or over SNE), while a "cutter" is a low that tracks west of the Appalachians (i.e. up through DTW or ORD). I often like to use I-81 as an approximate divider between them. Of course, a coastal low or nor'easter is best for the weenies in SNE. I typically define those as tracking along or S and E of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's still possible the heaviest rain is more ern PA into ern NY, but whoever is along ans west of that boundary for several hours or more...look out. Impressive probabilities for 3" in 24 hours. Signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That x is at mpm's house. Ironic. Was ran from mikes wood shed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Impressive probabilities for 3" in 24 hours. Signal is there. Dig into the SD and U components of wind and PWAT. Impressive stuff. That is mega convergence there. I just may have to hoist it for those folk in wrn CT and Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I wonder how my Wednesday AM flight out of BDL will be. Hopefully, they won't get too windy at the valley floor, but if things mix out they could get quite gusty. Current 12z NAM soundings suggest they will warm sector and mix for a while by 15z, so getting out could be tough. It should make for a bumpy and interesting ascent though. I also want to take this opportunity to define and clear up some low track nomenclature. While often used interchangeably, and with good reason, the terms "cutter" and "inland runner" mean somewhat different things to me. I like to reserve the use of "inland runner" to a low that tracks east of the Appalachians, but inland (i.e. up the Hudson Valley or over SNE), while a "cutter" is a low that tracks west of the Appalachians (i.e. up through DTW or ORD). I often like to use I-81 as an approximate divider between them. Of course, a coastal low or nor'easter is best for the weenies in SNE. I typically define those as tracking along or S and E of I-95. Buckle up. You will rock around good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 15z SREF's have a stripe of 3"+ from Northern DE up through all of NJ, SE NY, CT, RI and most of west, central and southern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ahhh...I was thinking they changed Hydro to Water, lol. General public doesn't understand the term "hydrometeorological." Weather Prediction Center makes it much easier to understand what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 euro has 35-40 knot 10-m winds on the Cape. pretty impressive for a time. for a lot of the region though, think there's a better chance for "high" wind wed night into thursday as CAA gets underway. What time of night Tuesday/morning Wed does it show for arrival? Wondering about ferry and plane cancelations. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dig into the SD and U components of wind and PWAT. Impressive stuff. That is mega convergence there. I just may have to hoist it for those folk in wrn CT and Berks. Crosshairs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Nice, figured the srly would would give that look. That's impressive, throw that over a slow moving front and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Pretty cool to look at, you can see the southern stream trough and the northern stream about to drop in. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Nice, figured the srly would would give that look. That's impressive, throw that over a slow moving front and boom. A lot of juice to work with. I'm impressed that PWAT anomalies climb to over +4 SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Rain events just aren't exciting. Wind th0ugh..wind ..yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 A lot of juice to work with. I'm impressed that PWAT anomalies climb to over +4 SD That's why I'd have a little concern near and just west of that boundary. Has that ++RA look. At least the storm is moving. Meanwhile it may blow pretty hard here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Rain events just aren't exciting. Wind th0ugh..wind ..yes please Not to "rain" on your parade, but I feel like your winds may be very brief and just starting to ramp up as they move through. You are CAD for a while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Rain events just aren't exciting. Wind th0ugh..wind ..yes please Rain events are exciting when the amounts can be excessive, and this has a legit chance of doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Multi-faceted wind potential ... WCB; then "ribbon" echo convection with dynamic momentum transfer; then there is a bit of an isallobaric wind acceleration hinted -- though I'd like to see a better +PP component to this. Either way, PP bombs from the mid 990s to the mid 970s, as the low is leaving the region, should result in some jet engines.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 A lot of juice to work with. I'm impressed that PWAT anomalies climb to over +4 SDAndy and his Tandy will be impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Getting back to what Will brought up, there is some mid level left tomorrow morning..enough to maybe bring flurries inti ern NY and western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Is anybody flying out Wednesday? I am. 1:00pm, how concerned should I be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What time of night Tuesday/morning Wed does it show for arrival? Wondering about ferry and plane cancelations. Thanks. i think out this way...just about the entire day rips. it doesn't look good - especially for the boats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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