bobbutts Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 C/NNE. Snow with a changeover to rain towards the latter portion of the storm. CNE is being a bit generous, no? I'm definately in CNE expecting the storm to either start as rain or switchover before any measurable accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 CNE is being a bit generous, no? I'm definately in CNE expecting the storm to either start as rain or switchover before any measurable accumulation. I see a cpl hours of potential wintery wx at start , but this is over to rain quickly imo and only upslope spots will have snow at end imo. Big rain storm for most south of vim toot and east of spine of greens. Go to Dallas for winter...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Incredible wind signal on the NAM. Warm sector instability would likely mix a lot of momentum down... FRH grid in with 40 to 45kt sustain middle BL flow. What a fantastic weather week. Just the enormous sea-saw of sensible weather, going from a -3SD type air mass to a +3SD, back to -2SD ... And much to the chagrin of the winter weather heads, nary a flake. Well ... for most. I saw that, that's ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 A lot of spots may end as some inconsequencial snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 CNE is being a bit generous, no? I'm definately in CNE expecting the storm to either start as rain or switchover before any measurable accumulation. You may see a brief period at the onset of snow/ice and I would not rule out some -snsh to end it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 A lot of spots may end as some inconsequencial snow.interesting evolution on hi res NAM with some 5H energy rotating down the backside, a period of lt mood snow on T day works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Def not boring. A little ice possible, tons of rain, huge wind field, even a chance of flakes Any convection possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 interesting evolution on hi res NAM with some 5H energy rotating down the backside, a period of lt mood snow on T day works It may not truly be a 2nd wave..but there's been some talk of a changeover to snow at the end that would be enough to whiten things up a bit for a festive holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For folks that are cooking for the Tgiving and don't have genny's..better make some contingency plans just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 There is also actually some weak lift that comes through tomorrow morning from the mid-level WAA...its pretty dry but it might be enough for some light snow or flurries...esp western areas. If it starts as ice in those hills tomorrow night, I think it wouldn't last more than a couple hours...and it would be marginal. I don't expect ice. Maybe a few flakes, but then bring on the deluge. I'm ready. With this coming so close by, I imagine we'll avoid much of the wind that folks further east will enjoy. We'll get some on the back end though. A lot of spots may end as some inconsequencial snow. Mood flakes melting in the puddles. 26.6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For folks that are cooking for the Tgiving and don't have genny's..better make some contingency plans just in case :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 CNE is being a bit generous, no? I'm definately in CNE expecting the storm to either start as rain or switchover before any measurable accumulation. 12Z NAM has about .20" QPF for CON before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It may not truly be a 2nd wave..but there's been some talk of a changeover to snow at the end that would be enough to whiten things up a bit for a festive holiday I doubt it's more than flakes for you but stranger things have happened I guess. Maybe some SHSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z ECMWF is 2-3"+ of rain for all of New England. Sweet spot is northern CT and SW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For folks that are cooking for the Tgiving and don't have genny's..better make some contingency plans just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z ECMWF is 2-3"+ of rain for all of New England. Sweet spot is northern CT and SW MA. NAM also had that as a sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM also had that as a sweet spot. Will be a lot of rain for anyone regardless of where they are. Just some will have more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Fresh off the Presses, looks like WPC is liking the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro didnt trend like 150 miles east? Lol i throw in the towel. BTV's AFD seems a lot snowier than models show, what are they up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro didnt trend like 150 miles east? Lol i throw in the towel. BTV's AFD seems a lot snowier than models show, what are they up to? Give up the ghost, someone might see an inch or two in extreme northern New England with maybe some wrap around at the end if you want to believe it. This is primarily a rain event and has been for days. Updated day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks as though we dip below freezing Wednesday night. There's going to be quite a bit of water on the ground, perhaps widespread ice come morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAVGEM looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For us, not downsloping might as well be upsloping. Sou'easters are very favorable for high totals locally. All the same the berks will still do better because they'll have actual orographic enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For folks that are cooking for the Tgiving and don't have genny's..better make some contingency plans just in case still think CC low track?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Fresh off the Presses, looks like WPC is liking the higher totals. That x is at mpm's house. Ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Give up the ghost, someone might see an inch or two in extreme northern New England with maybe some wrap around at the end if you want to believe it. This is primarily a rain event It is primarily a rain event, but if Pickles is going to be in C/N VT, he has an interest in it and there's likely to be an upslope response on the backside. It's not necessarily "wrap around" in the sense most people think of it, but I bet there's more than 1-2" out of it. The larger grid models will always underestimate that NW flow QPF in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Fresh off the Presses, looks like WPC is liking the higher totals. Give up the ghost, someone might see an inch or two in extreme northern New England with maybe some wrap around at the end if you want to believe it. This is primarily a rain event and has been for days. Updated day 2 outlook they drop that 4.24 right on the pit. Lotsa qpf there. ot....new nokia phone is great for the reading the board, decent for models. Glad I put the iPhone through the laundry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro didnt trend like 150 miles east? Lol i throw in the towel. BTV's AFD seems a lot snowier than models show, what are they up to? Well it's tough for them....the eastern part of the CWA is almost flooding rain going to upslope snow, while the western part might just be heavy snow throughout. Out in the Saint Lawrence Valley they will have all sorts of winter issues as if it's not snowing, that place is notorious for icing. Same with the Adirondacks in this set up. BTV's largest concern is likely the winter weather aspect in NNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What the heck is the WPC? I thought it was the HPC that put those graphics out? Did they change names? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What the heck is the WPC? I thought it was the HPC that put those graphics out? Did they change names? Yes, sometime last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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