TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I read on here before that a se component to the wind helps mix out the inversionWell isn't it sort of natural that s component would be preferred for mixing out the inversion simply because thats the warmer wind direction. More of a question than an answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 upslope snowfall galore...after a drenching rainstorm. Yep , not surprised at all, some had said they start as snow and end as rain, the opposite seemed to be the case to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ryan said yesterday gusts near 60 in Eastern areas.Similar gusts to yesterday seem like a good well balanced forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 pickles is getting a pants tent I can see it from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I prefer strong S/SSW Yeah, this is a better direction. I see the stypical locations getting the higher gusts. Higher elevations and the typical Eastern areas (MQE, HYA, CHH, EWB) TAN probably max out in the 40-45mph area. Still have to figure out if it's a siting issue with the ASOS that keeps those higher gusts from popping there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yep , not surprised at all, some had said they start as snow and end as rain, the opposite seemed to be the case to me I feel like everyone has been talking about possible upslope on the backside up here. Sort of depends on how quick the low deepens as it passes us. If it stays strung out and doesn't consolidate, we don't get the deep layer cyclonic flow. And yes it probably starts as 1-3" of wet snow, I see no problem with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yep , not surprised at all, some had said they start as snow and end as rain, the opposite seemed to be the case to me * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATE TUESDAYNIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Snow to rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 upslope snowfall galore...after a drenching rainstorm.Yeah. One must remember, too...that Watch is the same watch issued from Massena, NY to the NH border. When you read it, it sounds a lot more wintery than reality might be. I've already heard a lot of people say it won't really rain because the watch makes it sound like snow/mix/snow...not 1-3" snow then borderline flooding rains, then some upslope. That may be true from the Adirondacks west, but I'm surprised they didn't break out VT from NY and issue different statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Snow to rain to snow. It doesn't seem to convey the whole drenching rainstorm in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 lots of wind for an extended period, could be some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It doesn't seem to convey the whole drenching rainstorm in the middle. Probably picked up in the AFD and P&C forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Is anybody flying out Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 SREFs rather impressive as far as QPF goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 12z NAM held serve. 3"+ from DC up through Western Mass. Decent snows in upstate NY from Albany west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That is an absolute 6hr deluge along and north of that low track with tremendous frontogenesis in the lower levels. Someone is getting a sh*t ton of rain and it may be the Berks. That's an ominous look for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That is an absolute 6hr deluge along and north of that low track with tremendous frontogenesis in the lower levels. Someone is getting a sh*t ton of rain and it may be the Berks. That's an ominous look for them.dc up through western new england is a lock for at least 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That is an absolute 6hr deluge along and north of that low track with tremendous frontogenesis in the lower levels. Someone is getting a sh*t ton of rain and it may be the Berks. That's an ominous look for them. most of the heavy rain is in C-W MA for sure, we get the wind, still 1.5-2" will be a nice change for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 dc up through western new england is a lock for at least 2"+ NYC around 5" on NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 dc up through western new england is a lock for at least 2"+ 1.7" or so PWATs running up and over a polar boundary with 2-3k' mtns. Someone is getting 5+ if that happens. That's a scary signal...even NYC area is gonna get a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 most of the heavy rain is in C-W MA for sure, we get the wind, still 1.5-2" will be a nice change for us. Fine by me, I don't need a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Fine by me, I don't need a deluge. 50-55mph gusts for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well file this panel up of the 12z NAM under "upslope climo"... Low to mid-level features sitting north of FVE in moist cyclonic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 50-55mph gusts for our area? Probably, maybe a few higher in favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Fine by me, I don't need a deluge. i love these events. hopefully the max isn't too far west of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 i love these events. hopefully the max isn't too far west of nyc I would too, but I don't want flooding now that I have a home. Should be some good wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Anyone want to help a weary traveler and give me an ETA for when the heaviest downpours are going to be hitting BAL-PHL-NYC-BOS? I have to drive from Baltimore to Boston sometime between Tuesday evening and late afternoon Wednesday and am trying to figure out the best time to go. I was planning on hitting the road around 4 a.m. Wednesday and getting to Boston before noon and the worst of the traffic, but now it seems that might keep me under the heaviest rains for pretty much the entire trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 i love these events. hopefully the max isn't too far west of nyc I know we've been dry but will frozen ground add to the flash flooding threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Anyone want to help a weary traveler and give me an ETA for when the heaviest downpours are going to be hitting BAL-PHL-NYC-BOS? I have to drive from Baltimore to Boston sometime between Tuesday evening and late afternoon Wednesday and am trying to figure out the best time to go. I was planning on hitting the road around 4 a.m. Wednesday and getting to Boston before noon and the worst of the traffic, but now it seems that might keep me under the heaviest rains for pretty much the entire trip. Better have a good pair of wipers. I think you have some pretty heavy rain the whole way. It might get more showery in nature east of the CT river after 12pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z NAM winds for a select few at 950mb EWB 69kts ACK 74kts FMH 72kts HYA 74kts PVD 62kts BOS 60kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Better have a good pair of wipers. I think you have some pretty heavy rain the whole way. It might get more showery in nature east of the CT river after 12pm or so. on the NAM at least looks like the heavy stuff moves in to the baltimore area after 10pm on Tuesday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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