powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Chilly morning here. I wanted to get to -30F dew points... 90F lower than the dews Blizz prays for between April 15 and September 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 What a disaster in store. This couldn't really be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Man this is some gradient... has an icy look to it under those warmer H850 temps up this way. Especially for those mid-slope elevations 1,000-3,000ft under the inversion. But not often you can see >10C H85 temps in SNE and <0C across NNE Even the 6z GFS isn't as bad a disaster as Blizz seems to be making it seem like at least NNE...though I haven't gone through the ECM yet. It starts as snow on Friday and then goes to a long period of mixed up here, finally changing to rain at the end but its no torch. I don't know if it would get above 40F on the 6z GFS. The low level cold is flexing some muscle under the higher H85 temps. Certainly wouldn't be pretty, but I think we may have something interesting out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I still needed to mow one more time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes it's a gradient but let's call it what it is, an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm trying to figure out the orientation of the cold air mass with this event. Is it going to be better to be further north, or further west, to have a chance at avoiding the furnace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes it's a gradient but let's call it what it is, an inland runner. Who said it was a coastal? This is still a gradient pattern, we are just on the wrong side of it at this time. If ever there was a gradient pattern, this system seems like one with like 20C gradient over like VT/NH/ME, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The Euro ensembles weren't as bad as 12z and the 06z GEFS went south too...so there's a chance we could still end up on the colder side of the boundary...we'll hope it ticks southeast again. Its not looking good, but at least the door is still open. It probably would have been shut if they stayed status quo or went NW further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The Euro ensembles weren't as bad as 12z and the 06z GEFS went south too...so there's a chance we could still end up on the colder side of the boundary...we'll hope it ticks southeast again. Its not looking good, but at least the door is still open. It probably would have been shut if they stayed status quo or went NW further. Yeah I didn't think the overnight runs were as bad at all. Still warm, but leaves the door open as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 The Euro ensembles weren't as bad as 12z and the 06z GEFS went south too...so there's a chance we could still end up on the colder side of the boundary...we'll hope it ticks southeast again. Its not looking good, but at least the door is still open. It probably would have been shut if they stayed status quo or went NW further. All we can see is the the tip of Ray's nose thru the crack in the door.. Hopefully the crack widens and he doesn't turn into Pinocchio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 All we can see is the the tip of Ray's nose thru the crack in the door.. Hopefully the crack widens and he doesn't turn into Pinocchio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes it's a gradient but let's call it what it is, an inland runner. It seems to me cutters and inland runners were common all summer and the trend continues. Am i right with this observation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Who said it was a coastal? This is still a gradient pattern, we are just on the wrong side of it at this time. If ever there was a gradient pattern, this system seems like one with like 20C gradient over like VT/NH/ME, lol. Sure is interesting up your way.http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmvl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Anyone wannt to guess a forecast for Buffalo Sat Sunday Heading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Anyone wannt to guess a forecast for Buffalo Sat Sunday Heading up. Hope the models are wrong or the euro is 6 hours too slow or it will be ugly I'm afraid. You out in the open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Anyone wannt to guess a forecast for Buffalo Sat Sunday Heading up.Icestorm conditions. My neighbor is going too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sure is interesting up your way.http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmvlNice find Ginxy...fits with my mountain forecast right now...the set up seems to reek of ice.You can see on that link how it has the bulk of the later precip as ZR with 850 temps above 0C but 925mb at -1C to -3C. The highest SFC temp is 34F through the whole thing on the GFS. Snowpack cancel uncancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 saw it got down to -33 in Island pond vt today so I called my grandfather to see what it was at his place in Baldwin mills Quebec he got down to -35 damn cold for december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Check out this DGEX prog for the upcoming weekend... H85 temps of +10C over CON with a surface temp below 35F, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Check out this DGEX prog for the upcoming weekend... H85 temps of +10C over CON with a surface temp below 35F, lol. dgex.JPG Not that uncommon in the right setup. The December 2008 ice storm here that dropped over an inch of ice had 850 temps of +10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 alot of areas on the ct river frozen over already you dont see that to often this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 alot of areas on the ct river frozen over already you dont see that to often this early The Charles River was frozen on the train ride into Boston today...at least the part near Back Bay. That was pretty shocking to see this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS getting closer to keeping the boundary south...its pretty much over CNE on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Is it me or does the 12z GFS want to drop the boundary a little further south for the weekend. Perhaps still time for a festive miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS getting closer to keeping the boundary south...its pretty much over CNE on this run.Yeah we're getting there. Closer each run and ens run. Cold press/ snowcover helping. Let's keep it trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Still looks pretty warm, but that's a pretty good 1030+ HP in Quebec. CNE/NNE may have some icing concerns. Maybe we can keep it cold at the surface here to preserve the snow for a white Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yet last night's euro pushed it north compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yet last night's euro pushed it north compared to 12z Yes it did...the 12z run yesterday was cold. But yesterday's 12z EC ensembles were warm and the 00z ensembles definitely trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Uh oh https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/412981771639087104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hope the models are wrong or the euro is 6 hours too slow or it will be ugly I'm afraid. You out in the open?second row behind the Bills bench Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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