Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Deal with Grinch.restart and balls to the wall. That's one helluva great looking ENS package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Deal with Grinch.restart and balls to the wall. That's one helluva great looking ENS package. Still time..Euro op getting colder was a start..but it may be a hope and prayer with ens giving us a screaming soueaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well aside from the annual Grinch Storm look next week...the pattern reloads and looks excellent going forward...just a continuous supply of frigid air from Canada and we build up a bit of a PNA ridge for a time...then it looks like it might go a bit more gradient again late in the period. But overall a good look. Hopefully we can trend next week south to keep the White xmas. This season reminds me an awful lot of 2008-09....'07-'08 tailed off a lot more than I expect this one to. Got going a little later in December, too... I don't expect March to be a dud this season, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yeah that's not so good. at least it looks cold on christmas itself. lol. Cold is useless with brown ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think our only hope may be if we get that wave to track so far west that it has less impacts our sensible wx. That would let that cold high nosing in from Quebec to try and ooze in LL cold. If the storm tries running up the St Lawrence RV we're f'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I would think if we don't see them go colder at 00z tonight..it's green grass and sleigh's on wheels to the Canadian border for Christmas unfortunately. I hope noone is hoping for that. "to the Canadian border" is hyperbole? The only time I've seen 12" snowpack disappear in NNE during met winter was in Jan 1995, and it took minima as much as 40F above avg to do it. Nothing's impossible, but it would take a real Grrrrrrinch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I would think if we don't see them go colder at 00z tonight..it's green grass and sleigh's on wheels to the Canadian border for Christmas unfortunately. I hope noone is hoping for that. Lol..... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40737-july-high-heat-wx-disco/page-20#entry2363948 Post 690 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well the main wave on Sunday only tracks about 50 miles to my northwest on the 18Z GFS so I am not throwing in the towel yet. No big adjustment is necessary. On the gridded data there is a flash freeze behind it at ALB: 60 at 4 PM Sunday and 33 by 1 AM Monday. Hopefully it's going a little crazy with that 60... It might wait till the bitter end to mix that kind of mild air down to the surface here. I think our only hope may be if we get that wave to track so far west that it has less impacts our sensible wx. That would let that cold high nosing in from Quebec to try and ooze in LL cold. If the storm tries running up the St Lawrence RV we're f'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 InJanuary '96 we had a brutal rainy thaw which wiped out almost all the snow that had fallen in late Dec. and the Bliz. of 96. Then the pattern reloaded nicely. It literally melted 4 feet of snow off the Catskills and only around 6 inches remained. I can't speak for Northern NE. In January 1978 the notorious storm headed for the lakes with a blizzard for them. That wiped out just about all of the two plus feet of snow that we had on the ground after the January Nor'easters. We know that reload went pretty well in early February 1978. So I'm hoping not to be wiped out before Xmas, but unfortunately it's a typical part of our climo. "to the Canadian border" is hyperbole? The only time I've seen 12" snowpack disappear in NNE during met winter was in Jan 1995, and it took minima as much as 40F above avg to do it. Nothing's impossible, but it would take a real Grrrrrrinch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That's a strange snowstorm before the rainstorm for ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Torch Sunday with cold fropa during Monday putting out the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Torch Sunday with cold fropa during Monday putting out the fire. That torch sucks. Still have time to work on this, but it does not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Torch Sunday with cold fropa during Monday putting out the fire.looks rainy and foggy miserable all around for all.Meh we deal we continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That torch sucks. Still have time to work on this, but it does not look good. Yeah time is running out to fix this...we'll need the Euro ensembles to bail us out somewhat tonight to reverse the trend, or we are looking at a pretty ugly 2-3 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 "to the Canadian border" is hyperbole? The only time I've seen 12" snowpack disappear in NNE during met winter was in Jan 1995, and it took minima as much as 40F above avg to do it. Nothing's impossible, but it would take a real Grrrrrrinch! Ginxy has been calling that one for a month now...only a matter of time till Blizz calls for melting all the way to Hudson Bay. It may very well melt but it's not as easy as he makes it sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 -19F right now outside. It's f'in cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wait till WINTER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like our hopes hinge on that follow up wave next Monday..We'll need that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 lol...euro has over +16C 850s over SNE Sun afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 lol...euro has over +16C 850s over SNE Sun afternoon. Wiped clean to NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 lol...euro has over +16C 850s over SNE Sun afternoon. Jesus. ECENS much more tame...8-12*C contour meaning that may even be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wiped clean to NNEProbably if the op verified...ens are colder. The members look split between cold side and warm side up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 MEX up to 61F for BDL Sunday. Last minute Xmas shopping in shorts and t-shirts FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Probably if the op verified...ens are colder. The members look split between cold side and warm side up here. Out of curiosity..do the ens support the op heat in Sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 HPC seems to be rather consistent and have high confidence in the overall set up and flow. Also, they keep the frontal boundary in SNE. Would suggest a huge gradient between SNE and CNE/NNE. Also they talk of a moist southern stream running up into the Ohio valley and a broad SW flow into the northeast aloft. Not sure how this would transfer at the surface. But GYX doesn't seem aggressive with the warmth up here and has chances of precip Fri-Sun, and then much colder Monday. Also HPC has low pressure just off carolina georgia coast on Monday. Doesn't seem like much of a warmup up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 1.5F here to start. Can't remember a December where the lakes/ponds were this frozen, this early. It has been awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Seems like the GFS op is a little cooler and keeps the front just NW if us now. Maybe it creeps east, but furnace for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Bakersville ,Ct -13 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Seems like the GFS op is a little cooler and keeps the front just NW if us now. Maybe it creeps east, but furnace for now. Cooler would bring back the ice threat for next weekend, would it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cooler would bring back the ice threat for next weekend, would it not? Nah man..we're cooked down here..Maybe up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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