CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'd lean heavily on climo in this setup. Just a guess. Either way that Friday through Moday period could be very mild in parts of SNE. Hopefully not. It all depends on the southwest cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Meh--borderline freezing as presented. Borderline freezing is the same thing as borderline melting. Ho-hum for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The ice concern this weekend is legit imo...especially for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 As modeled, I'd lean cool right now...we might not be frozen though. It could be like a 35-40F rain...but its too early to really say much about ptype. Yeah kind of what i was thinking. Like a 35 degree rain and the front ends up down over Jersey or NYC..pretty classic climo wise..which all things considered wouldn't be THAT bad. We'd still keep some snow OTG for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah kind of what i was thinking. Like a 35 degree rain and the front ends up down over Jersey or NYC..pretty classic climo wise..which all things considered wouldn't be THAT bad. We'd still keep some snow OTG for Christmas Playing with fire. Literally all or nothing. When some place is 60 and 40 miles north is 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah kind of what i was thinking. Like a 35 degree rain and the front ends up down over Jersey or NYC..pretty classic climo wise..which all things considered wouldn't be THAT bad. We'd still keep some snow OTG for Christmas Yeah cold rain won't get rid of this snowpack...but its a fine line. If this energy ejects and phases even partially, we're looking at a snowpack-obliterating cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah kind of what i was thinking. Like a 35 degree rain and the front ends up down over Jersey or NYC..pretty classic climo wise..which all things considered wouldn't be THAT bad. We'd still keep some snow OTG for Christmas If it's stuck there, we are all cold. I doubt that, but hope it is lol. Just don't like the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah cold rain won't get rid of this snowpack...but its a fine line. If this energy ejects and phases even partially, we're looking at a snowpack-obliterating cutter. Well Bryan said the Euro ens were somewhat cooler than the op last night..so it sounds like the op stepped in that direction..Hopefully today's ens don't go the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is a better look, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The key is if the front stays south and a cold high is to the north. If so ..the low level cold would drain right down the Champlain/Upper Hudson corridor. Maybe similar in NE with river valleys, but over here that would be a classic set-up. My main goal here would be to save the snow for Xmas. I have no further meteorological goals. Yeah kind of what i was thinking. Like a 35 degree rain and the front ends up down over Jersey or NYC..pretty classic climo wise..which all things considered wouldn't be THAT bad. We'd still keep some snow OTG for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro ensembles are not looking good on today's run for next week. They are definitely cutting the storm to the west of New England. That would be snowpack destroyer. Hopefully for the White Christmas wishers this one trends back south over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Your a mean one Mr Grinch Would really love to see Vince Wilfork get of IR and push that east. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 yeah that's not so good. at least it looks cold on christmas itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well admitedly it's beginning to look grimmer..but there's still time and reasons to have that get colder. Not time to think it's set in stone yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well admitedly it's beginning to look grimmer..but there's still time and reasons to have that get colder. Not time to think it's set in stone yetIt can also get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well admitedly it's beginning to look grimmer..but there's still time and reasons to have that get colder. Not time to think it's set in stone yet We'll need to see it trend back cooler tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest...its getting into the 6 day range. There's time, but not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I need to finish raking underneath my snow-pack anyway. Nothing worse than shoveling snow and getting dirty wet leaves with it. I know that makes Kevin sick. Any signs of an impending -NAO or -AO in the long term? Or are we still looking at a Reloading -EPO,-PNA,+AO,+NAO type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Anyone have the ecens 2m temps for tomorrow morning? My maps still show -20F sitting over my area while all other guidance has trended warmer. I'm curious if my maps are whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 It can also get worse It can't get worse than what Will described Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Anyone have the ecens 2m temps for tomorrow morning? My maps still show -20F sitting over my area while all other guidance has trended warmer. I'm curious if my maps are whacked. Yes.... I even see -15 over like western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Anyone have the ecens 2m temps for tomorrow morning? My maps still show -20F sitting over my area while all other guidance has trended warmer. I'm curious if my maps are whacked. yeah they are stupidly cold. still have a -20F up by you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Anyone have the ecens 2m temps for tomorrow morning? My maps still show -20F sitting over my area while all other guidance has trended warmer. I'm curious if my maps are whacked.Noyes was thinking NW Maine could hit -35 to -40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes.... I even see -15 over like western Mass. yeah they are stupidly cold. still have a -20F up by youThey've been consistent, but nothing other than the op has close to those temps. EC op even has -10F down to the NH/MA border. I'm at 18/2 now and I know that on a crazy winter radiating night we can drop well below the afternoon dews, but widespread -10s and -20s looks unreachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well aside from the annual Grinch Storm look next week...the pattern reloads and looks excellent going forward...just a continuous supply of frigid air from Canada and we build up a bit of a PNA ridge for a time...then it looks like it might go a bit more gradient again late in the period. But overall a good look. Hopefully we can trend next week south to keep the White xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 yeah that's not so good. at least it looks cold on christmas itself. Euro 2m temps are still pretty cold up our way (actually has 59 at ORH and 39 at FIT) Sunday evening. If that high pressure can trend a little farther north and east we might be looking at an icy storm and bulletproof snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 We'll need to see it trend back cooler tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest...its getting into the 6 day range. There's time, but not a lot. I would think if we don't see them go colder at 00z tonight..it's green grass and sleigh's on wheels to the Canadian border for Christmas unfortunately. I hope noone is hoping for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They've been consistent, but nothing other than the op has close to those temps. EC op even has -10F down to the NH/MA border. I'm at 18/2 now and I know that on a crazy winter radiating night we can drop well below the afternoon dews, but widespread -10s and -20s looks unreachable. i think i saw a -10F near BDL on the ens...maybe it was CEF or something. but it looked like a double digit negative they are whacked. i don't get what has happened to them when there's snow on the ground. some smart european needs to fix the radiating parameterization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yep a nice reload for sure. I still think any EPO flattening is just a temporary relax and reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z GFS says hide yo kids, hide yo wife. Dews near 60F where libations are enjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z GFS says hide yo kids, hide yo wife. Dews near 60F where libations are enjoyed. But Scooter Christmas miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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