CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 no one did. There seems to be a disturbing trend of commenting on models = direct forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 short-sleeves and shorts for last minute xmas shopping this weekend. delicious. fire pit and oysters. high dews too. puddles everywhere. 62/59 Sunday Hmm..are these forecasts or troll posts..YOU be the judge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is this transient? Or does this warmth have some staying power? Don't really care about snowpack, just don't want this lasting more than a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 i think most people have a greater than 50% chance of hitting 60 sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 You always have a chance of below 32 there..lol. I would not worry too much yet. OK, thanks. I know there is still more than enough room for this to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hmm..are these forecasts or troll posts..YOU be the judge neither. they are a discussion of the 12z GFS that just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hmm..are these forecasts or troll posts..YOU be the judge You forgot my question mark at the end. What you just did is a reason why the board is a disaster sometimes. Stop spinning and adding garbage or don't post at all. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 neither. they are a discussion of the 12z GFS that just came out. Could you kindly share your forecast for SNE this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 you can call it a grinch storm or call it a nice warm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 neither. they are a discussion of the 12z GFS that just came out. Looks like more playful trolling of the rev then "discussion" but it is lol worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hmm..are these forecasts or troll posts..YOU be the judge How are they troll posts? It's no different than posting about snow after a cold/snowy model run comes out. This board is deeply biased toward cold, snowy, and extreme weather. It's sad when grown men can't recognize that and take weather forecasts personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 You forgot my question mark at the end. What you just did is a reason why the board is a disaster sometimes. Stop spinning and adding garbage or don't post at all. Seriously. But it's ok for you guys to troll. My exact point..mods/ mets have different rules. Thank you. Let's see what the rest of the 12z runs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 But it's ok for you guys to troll. My exact point..mods/ mets have different rules. Thank you. Let's see what the rest of the 12z runs show That was commenting on the GFS op, not a blatant troll post such as yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Could you kindly share your forecast for SNE this weekend? i think it's too early to go balls out for 60s - that far above climo on a 6 to 7 day forecast is a bit much. but the idea of the front sagging through friday night and then washing out and returning north with a wave to our west is gaining strong support - essentially every piece of guidance available. so i would suspect we are warm-sectored. whether that's 45 or 60F, i don't know but i'm leaning solidly above normal for now. that's how it looks right now. i'm not naive to the fact that guidance has pushed some of these warm-ups away at this lead in the last few weeks so there is that aspect to consider. but you don't forecast off of wishes and trends only. you have to use the products available as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 i think it's too early to go balls out for 60s - that far above climo on a 6 to 7 day forecast is a bit much. but the idea of the front sagging through friday night and then washing out and returning north with a wave to our west is gaining strong support - essentially every piece of guidance available. so i would suspect we are warm-sectored. whether that's 45 or 60F, i don't know but i'm leaning solidly above normal for now. that's how it looks right now. i'm not naive to the fact that guidance has pushed some of these warm-ups away at this lead in the last few weeks so there is that aspect to consider. but you don't forecast off of wishes and trends only. you have to use the products available as well. And it's not just warm sectored...564 thicknesses? That's juicy. I agree...going 60 means sun and no warm sector garbage stratus and showers..but it looks to me much above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 i think it's too early to go balls out for 60s - that far above climo on a 6 to 7 day forecast is a bit much. but the idea of the front sagging through friday night and then washing out and returning north with a wave to our west is gaining strong support - essentially every piece of guidance available. so i would suspect we are warm-sectored. whether that's 45 or 60F, i don't know but i'm leaning solidly above normal for now. that's how it looks right now. i'm not naive to the fact that guidance has pushed some of these warm-ups away at this lead in the last few weeks so there is that aspect to consider. but you don't forecast off of wishes and trends only. you have to use the products available as well. Thanks man. I appreciate the professional response. No doubt we have one milder type day. Just don't know details yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 When are the GEFS out? That should help. And the Euro is in an hour so we can either puke some more, or become light, gay, and joyful again. hopeful note: if we really do torch and get 994 atop Maine, doesn't that help us on the Atlantic side possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 How are they troll posts? It's no different than posting about snow after a cold/snowy model run comes out. This board is deeply biased toward cold, snowy, and extreme weather. It's sad when grown men can't recognize that and take weather forecasts personally. Yeah...it's always trolling if you mention warmth but deep deep winter 24/7 is a valid discussion point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 it's the 12 z GFS so it's got to be right. What was i thinking? You and Ryan are right..60's all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah...it's always trolling if you mention warmth but deep deep winter 24/7 is a valid discussion point. I hate the warmth as well..but I'm not going to ignore the models simply because I want my snow to stick around. You got go with the flow. There is still some wiggle room because a lot of this is tied to energy over the SW. Models are notorious for those SW cutoffs screwing around with them so it's going to take some time to resolve. But, the solution of something warm is also gaining a little more momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So here's an exercise for someone who can non phone post. Huge low going up the apps 12/23/93. Very warm and rainy here. Hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I hate the warmth as well..but I'm not going to ignore the models simply because I want my snow to stick around. You got go with the flow. There is still some wiggle room because a lot of this is tied to energy over the SW. Models are notorious for those SW cutoffs screwing around with them so it's going to take some time to resolve. But, the solution of something warm is also gaining a little more momentum. Of course I'd rather it be cold and snowy too...I think we all would. But to forecast operationally and professionally you have be able to discuss undesirable weather and treat it with the same respect as your preferred weather. I do get Blizz's point though that if it's just a weenie hobby, who cares if you are always cold/snowy or whatever. Just realize that others will be discussing all options and it doesn't necessarily mean trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah...it's always trolling if you mention warmth but deep deep winter 24/7 is a valid discussion point. thing is - there is virtually no one here who wants cutters and warm weather. deep down, i don't even think forky wants it. but then again, he's not even from new england...so he wouldn't count anyway (no offense forky). but it is what it is. talking about the "positives" doesn't change anything. nor does talking about the "negatives". you just try and get it right. making it seem better than it is might feel good i guess(?), but it just leaves you open/prone to mistakes, imo. and it doesn't allow us to hash out the forecast very well. if every time we post something about warmth, someone drops a map with no words or explanation and it just shows shades of blues and negative anomalies to counter the argument, what's the point? it's like chief and deputy chief weenie over at necn - it's always balls out. on every forecast. what good is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GEFS are much cooler. Still looks dicey for SNE in terms of warmth, but must me some members much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 MEX is puking out 50F for CON and 56F for BDL already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 MEX is puking out 50F for CON and 56F for BDL already. is that solely based off of the 12z GFS? or does it include GEFS too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 is that solely based off of the 12z GFS? or does it include GEFS too?GFS but at d6 there's a lot of climo factored in. So if the 12 GFS verified you can likely bump those numbers up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Riding the line. This may give us a taste of why we want to stay on the sweet side. We need Leon to get busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Also I know I stated this a few days ago as a sort of wild guess based on some model interpretation, but still not out of the question we see something Christmas day or the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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