Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's going to be mild to start for at least 24 hrs. I feel confident on that. Then the first front moves through. After that a second wave moves in...but that easily could be a 36F heavy rain. It's basically threading a needle with the second event. That is a much better tone to speak to folks in. Let's just let the cards fall where they may. We really have no idea what's going to happen. Maybe it in the 40's for 12 hours..maybe it's 1 day. We should have a good idea by Thursday where the boundary wants to set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That is a total Grinch situation shown right now, hopefully we see changes this week but man right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That is a much better tone to speak to folks in. Let's just let the cards fall where they may. We really have no idea what's going to happen. Maybe it in the 40's for 12 hours..maybe it's 1 day. We should have a good idea by Thursday where the boundary wants to set up well it's not as though we have control over it. but we do try and get it right...it's kind of what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What we have is a period of time where the EPO pulses positive however at the same time the PNA also pulses positive thereby continuing an Arctic feed into the USA, as soon as the PNA relaxes the EPO heads back negative. I agree with your assessment, last week of Dec is colder than normal, probably stormy too. As the PNA goes positive, it will be interesting to see if we can get a trough to develop downstream in the East toward the end of December/start of January. So far, it's been a fun December. Hopefully, tomorrow's clipper will overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They need to stop running the weekly CFSv2 every day. That does nothing, but cause chaos. Operationally, it's crap to have that run daily. At least the montly version uses an ensemble of previous data over the last 30 days. It's actually run four times a day to create an "ensemble" of 40 members over the last 10 days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's actually run four times a day to create an "ensemble" of 40 members over the last 10 days of runs. Yeah I left all that part out. The E1-E3...etc. But the point is that a daily forecast of a 1-4 week outlook is a recipe for instability in a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This was my six week forecast issued on 11/22/13. First six week forecast issued on 10/17 was pretty good with 5 out of 6 weeks going the way I had thought. Hope I am wrong about the Grinch. experimental and for fun WE 12/13/13 Continued well below normal with some snow chances during this period with LES events -3 to -6 W/E 12/20/13 Much warmer period with a significant snow to rain event for SNE possible heavy snow way inland before a warm spell +2-+5 possible snowstorm on the 21st WE 12/27/13 Much warmer with a possible Grinch storm cutter temps +3,+5 W/E 1/4/14 Return to below normal cold possible coastal snowstorm around the 4th -2,-4 W/E 1/11/14 Much warmer than normal throught the NE , +4-+6 W/E 1/18/14 coldest air of the season with a possible record setting cold -4 to -7, clipper Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 As the PNA goes positive, it will be interesting to see if we can get a trough to develop downstream in the East toward the end of December/start of January. So far, it's been a fun December. Hopefully, tomorrow's clipper will overperform. Yea its been fun, hopefully we get a great end. I just hate seeing rain storms right before Christmas but we have no control. I just heard on WCBS 880 how good the cold and snow has been for the economy from all sectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They need to stop running the weekly CFSv2 every day. That does nothing, but cause chaos. Operationally, it's crap to have that run daily. At least the montly version uses an ensemble of previous data over the last 30 days. I don't disagree. The run-to-run variability is very high. Subjectively, I've seen a number of cases where one could try to extrapolate from the changes taking place on the GFS ensembles approaching 360 hours and have a better idea about the week 3 anomalies than what the CFSv2 shows. However, I don't look at the CFSv2 weekly anomalies beyond weeks 1-2 very often, so I'm not sure how often the above observation holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yea its been fun, hopefully we get a great end. I just hate seeing rain storms right before Christmas but we have no control. I just heard on WCBS 880 how good the cold and snow has been for the economy from all sectors. It wouldn't be Christmas without a Grinch storm. At least last year we had a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I don't disagree. The run-to-run variability is very high. Subjectively, I've seen a number of cases where one could try to extrapolate from the changes taking place on the GFS ensembles approaching 360 hours and have a better idea about the week 3 anomalies than what the CFSv2 shows. However, I don't look at the CFSv2 weekly anomalies beyond weeks 1-2 very often, so I'm not sure how often the above observation holds true. To be honest I hardly ever look at them. They should run it like the euro weeklies on Monday and Thursday to get more of a apples to apples comparison. The seasonal version looks near to below in the nrn tier for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah I left all that part out. The E1-E3...etc. But the point is that a daily forecast of a 1-4 week outlook is a recipe for instability in a forecast. Absolutely. I mean using previous runs kind of smooths out the forecast but it's not really a scientifically rigorous way of getting "true" forecast anomalies and spread. I agree they should run an ensemble where the same initial conditions are perturbed, but run it once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It wouldn't be Christmas without a Grinch storm. At least last year we had a bit of snow. This is a pretty cool stat There has been at least a trace of snow recorded 8 out of the last 9 days at the Worcester airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NNE another round of snow for this weekend according to the GFS before we torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's all gone if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's all gone if the GFS is right. puddles everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 puddles everywhere. Vaporized. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's all gone if the GFS is right. even in nne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Vaporized. That sucks. Wow now that's a grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 even in nne? Well obviously tougher there, but if the GFS is right, it's ugly for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow now that's a grinch storm. 62/59 Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That has to be close to record warmth...lol. You're a mean one...Mr. Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 So it went from a weekend long icestorm to early summer warmth..Just another solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That has to be close to record warmth...lol. You're a mean one...Mr. Grinch. happens more often than not when we have early/mid December snows...what's it got a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So it went from a weekend long icestorm to early summer warmth..Just another solution.. That second low torching is gaining some traction. Lets hope it stays south, but concerns for the snow pack fetish peeps mount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 delicious. fire pit and oysters. high dews too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 62/59 Sunday? That has to be close to record warmth...lol. You're a mean one...Mr. Grinch. I left our morning met such a crappy forecast... I feel bad lol. Today's warmth is over performing... not nearly as cold as I thought, 2-5" for tomorrow is a little bullish after overnight runs, and the weekend forecast is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So it went from a weekend long icestorm to early summer warmth..Just another solution.. problem is we're 2 days closer and this is 3 runs in a row...Euro has the warmth too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 62/59 Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So it went from a weekend long icestorm to early summer warmth..Just another solution.. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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